Germany just pulled a Philip Rivers...

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Germany just finished an epic meltdown: They were up 4-0 at home in their soccer match vs Sweden (2014 world cup qualifying match) after 60min and managed to piss that lead away...4-4 equalizer in the 3rd minute of injury time, the draw was even traded at 1000:1 at betfair. :):)
That was one for the ages....
 

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Hopefully Honduras won't do the same.
 

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Soriano, I am glad you posted this I saw when it was 4-1, I would have assumed they rolled home with a W. Wow!
 

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Soriano, I am glad you posted this I saw when it was 4-1, I would have assumed they rolled home with a W. Wow!
Yeah, everybody thought the game was over....but this team has serious problems on their defensive side that can (rather easily) be exploited by some teams: They already lost 3-5 at Switzerland in a preparation match for the Euro 2012 this summer and 1-3 at home vs Argentina. Both these games were just friendlies, so no real harm done, but it's pretty obvious that they have a long way to go defensively until 2014 if they want to seriously challenge Spain for the 2014 world cup, especially when you keep in mind that they were dominated in 2008 and 2010 by Spain and they just match up horribly with the Spaniards.

On the other hand there is quite a gap anyways between Spain and the rest right now, it's Spain and after that there is quite a drop-off to Germany, Italy, Argentina or teams like the Netherlands (rebuilding after the Euro2012 disappointment), Mexico or Brazil (even factoring in their home advantage in 2014). Will be interesting to see how the power rankings will look like in 18 months.

On a side note: Portugal, currently ranked #3 in the world behind only Spain & Germany, only managed a 1-1 tie at home vs Northern Ireland, so another huge upset (Germany was more of an upset due to the meltdown, not so much the result of a tie vs a decent Swedish team). Although I don't really understand how Portugal can be ranked that high anyways, they got kicked out in the round of the last16 at the last world cup, had to go to the playoffs to even qualify for the Euro2012 (after finishing 2nd in their qualifying group behind Denmark) and then played a good European Cup and got eliminated by Spain in a penalty shootout in the semi-final, but still that was their only really good performance in the last 4 years and in between they struggled mightily (including a 2-2 tie at Liechtenstein...)
 

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Keep in mind at these early stages they are still willing to get a draw. There is no chance they will not make it. So they are in no panic by giving up these goals.
 

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@QL: No need for panic mode at all, but that doesn't take away from the fact that their defense is not even close to being ready for serious competition yet....like I said, they were a clear favorite (AHC-2) going into the game, but imo a draw wasn't out of question and surely can happen vs Sweden, but after being up 4-0 with 30min to go, you just can't give away a game like that. And it wasn't their first piss-poor defensive showing...

And yes, there is virtually no way they don't qualify, but you Sweden is capable of beating anybody in that group and if they manage a tie in Sweden vs Germany, Germany might have to go to a playoff vs another team to qualify and that could end badly. Besides, Germany was already extremely lucky to win @Austria, that game should have ended in a tie, too. Austria missed a bunch of great scoring opportunities and could have easily scored 2-3 goals in that game, too.

They have, the team has been very young for years and their youth squads have been doing ok, too. But defensively they struggle: Historically the defense was always their strength but nowadays it's goalkeeping (like always) and their midfield. On the downside their defense has been extremely vulnerable with guys like Schmelzer, Hummels, Mertesacker, Boateng. Especially against opponents playing a quick, short passing offensive style, those defenders are too slow and static and many times their defensive spacing is just off. On the other hand especially the latter part about chemistry/spacing/team play will probably greatly improve before the world cup because nowadays they can barely ever practice or play together and just have a few days of practice together before their matches (because the remaining time they're practicing with their clubs and therefore different teammates).
 

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maybe beckenbauer makes a comeback
At his current age would fit the criteria of being slow and flat-footed for sure...
Either way long way to go and the only team, that doesn't show at least one major area of big concern is Spain. Anybody else has one or more areas, where they have to improve (BRA/ARG mainly their defense, POR converting their scoring opportunities, etc) and even Spain often times has been struggling against very defensive minded opponents, who play 8-9 players up to 30m in front of their own goal, thereby taking away any free space and just rely on counter attacks. The aerial game isn't a strength of the Spanish attack, so they have had lots of problems with teams like Portugal.
 

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I hope the next World Cup is not anti climactic with Spain being a heavy favorite.
 

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Imo Brazil won't be a massive favorite, if they can't figure out their defensive in the remaining 2 years. Even with home field advantage factored in, their odds would be on the same level like Spain at best. Especially considering their last performances at home incl. a 0-2 loss vs Mexico and them even showing offensive struggles vs. decent competition in addition to their constant defensive problems.
 

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They lost 3-4 vs Argentina this summer and 1-2 to Mexico, after that they conceded at least 1 goal in pretty much any game during the Olympics (even vs teams like Belarus and Honduras), although the Olympic team isn't their 1st team defense because it's an under23 team with additions like Marcelo.
Still, anytime they have played decent competition within the last few months, they got scored upon and many times conceded a bunch of great scoring opportunities. You also shouldn't overlook, that f.e. the 2-1 win vs ARG came due to a penalty in injury-time and ARG fielding more like a 2nd team without guys like Messi. The same is true for many of the teams they played in the games you listed: Japan was playing without several regulars, as was Sweden and you can throw out any games vs teams like RSA/CHI/IRQ anyways, that's like judging the German defense on games vs San Marino. It's not just about final scores, but how the games played out and who they played....

Any Brazilian I've talked to pretty much agrees that their team is far from being world cup ready, but then again like I said earlier: No team except Spain right now seems really strong and even Spain has off-days and can be beat, especially by certain matchups like POR.
Brazil should be without a doubt be a contender on their home turf (until that 0-2 loss vs MEX imo they hadn't lost in Brazil for 5 or 6 yrs), but they have to improve on many aspects of the game, at least I wasn't impressed the least bit any time they have played decent competition since the WC in 2010. And another thing about Brazil: It's very tough to even judge any of their performances fairly/correctly because since that terrible performance at the 2011 Copa America, where they got eliminated by Paraguay in the quarterfinal match after penalty shootout, they have only played friendlies. They have a wildcard as host of the 2014 world cup and therefore won't have any meaningful matches besides the Copa America until then. So because of this they will try lots of different formations and tactics and their opponents many times won't field their best formations because it's just an exhibition game and players might want to rest and take time off to be 100% for club competition instead of travelling across the globe to play some meaningless exhibition game.

And fwiw: Right now Brazil is a small favorite somewhere around +400, while Spain is hovering around +500 after their draw vs France yesterday and because they still have to qualify in their group, which includes France. Once Spain (+500), Argentina (+600) and Germany (+650) have qualified, there shouldn't be much of a difference between odds on Brazil or Spain to win.
 

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Just to clarify: Often times teams like Brazil or Germany can mask their defensive shortcomings against weaker competition because those opponents just stand back deep in their own territory and focus on defense and keeping the opposition from scoring without any attempts on a quick transition game, running counter-attacks and pulling off a quick passing game to create own scoring opportunities.
But once teams like this play vs teams that have a good offense and rely on fast forwards and a quick transition from defense to offense after gaining possession of the ball, these problems many times get exposed very quickly because only then any lack of speed by the defenders and a bad transition game from offense to defense after turning over the ball shows up.
One of the best examples perhaps was at the 2010 world cup: Argentina only conceded 1 goal during their first 3 games in group stage and one more in their last16 match vs Mexico. But if you watched the games, you could already see that Nigeria + South Korea got several very good scoring opportunities anytime they upped the tempo after gaining control of the ball and just missed many good opportunities. They got even more exposed vs Mexico, still only conceded 1 goal vs Mexico.
Then in the quarterfinals pinnacle released an over/under 1.0 goals -105 on Germany in their match vs ARG and because of the style of play, Germany just seemed like a terrible matchup for the Argentinian defense and they got crushed 4-0 by Germany. That result for sure was aided by the very early 1st goal after a free kick, but still it shows what I'm trying to say.
Results and games vs lesser competition can be extremely misleading because different match-ups cause completely different troubles and obviously results. To me it's like (on a smaller scale) saying a AAA pitcher will shut down f.e. the Tigers or Rangers because he shut down teams like Pawtucket or Dunham...when in reality he might get away with some shortcomings/hanging pitches vs those teams because instead of a 3run shot a hanging slider results into a popup and 2LOB. While making the same mistake vs a Texas or Tigers lineup will end up by him giving up the longball and 3runs on the board.
 

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