#4 is GREAT advice
#4 is GREAT advice
BR great stuff, but you are missing a KEY point in being sucessful. DO NOT CHASE. I spose that falls under dont raise your bets, but when people lose they tend to get all stressed about it and think that they can win it all back in one play. This is a recipe for disaster and you can have a winning record, but by doing this you will always lose in the long run. It is very hard and even I do it sometimes, money management is KEY. LOL ill prolly put 500 on ASU tonight when i usually bet 2-300. I feel pretty confident in that tho. Mariotas 2nd freshman start on the road and just there second road game this year. ASU is good on both sides of the ball and will be PUMPED UP for this game tonight
I disagree on never playing teasers as I make more money on those than strate wagers in the NFL 2 teamers is the key and only do it IMO when you like the dog ie +3.5 becomes +10.5 creating Great Value.
Here's another important discipline-
Obviously, everyone who wagers are sports fans, and all sports fans have their favorite teams. If you are going to be a successful bettor, you CAN NOT have "my team". Having favorite teams is fine, we all have them but you need to be very careful when wagering on any game involving them. Too many people get sucked in to betting on "their team" because of sheer fan-blindness. The rule is this:
If you can't ever bet against a certain team, then you should never bet on them
Ridiculous advice. Buying points in Football on and off Key #'s 7 & 3 has tremendous value. Most books won't even let you buy off "3" anymore. Playing basic strategy teasers in the NFL are +EV and books despise anyone who bet's them properly. Parlays are outstanding if the lines on the parlay card are "stale" #'s. Correlated parlays have INSANE value. Just because you take +105 doesn't mean you have value especially at a razor sharp book like Pinny. They have opinions and are usually right. Ever hear of the "PINNY Lean" Sharpest outfit around. Betting the same amount on each game is foolish. You should be using Kelly Criterion to calculate bet size. Only good advice was #1 rest was crap lol
Not really any game can move & lose value doesn't matter if it's favorite or the Dog. Oregon opened -11. Now the game is -8. Do you wish you took Oregon -11.
Copy paste from bettingresource.com....
Patience and DisciplinePatience and discipline are the two most important things you need to have in order to find the edge and succeed in sports betting. Yes, these two are more important than money management itself because, without patience and discipline you wouldn't be able to successfully employ an efficient money management plan. In sports betting, having patience and discipline is a special ability--if you cannot master this special ability you will never find the edge or become a +ev bettor. It may seem easy but mastering this ability is very difficult, it is as hard as climbing a slippery and almost vertical hill; you can lose control and slip anytime. For most bettors it is virtually impossible to maintain patience and discipline in the long run. They might do everything perfectly for 1 week, 1 month or even a year but eventually they will momentarily lose that special ability and that moment is enough to destroy the bankroll.Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars. Often bettors who load their sportsbook with short bankroll find it impossible to maintain patience and discipline in a consistent basis because they will get bored of using proper money management on such small amount. As a result they will lose their bankroll frequently and re-load numerous times to accumulate losses. These bettors turn few hundred dollar losses into few thousand dollars in a matter of few weeks while dreaming of turning few hundred dollars into few thousand dollars of profit! Without patience and discipline your dream will never come true. If you fall into this category of bettors, we highly recommend that you wait patiently and collect these deposits without any action till you get a reasonable ($1000 minimum) bankroll.
But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.
Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
Total Games played: 91 games
Spread came into play: 17 games
Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
Last week for example, 14 games played, 3 games where the spread mattered:
Oakland+10 @ Atlanta
StLouis+5 @ Miami
Dallas+3.5 @ Balty
Other than that, either the dog won SU or the favorite covered the spread in the other 11 games played week 6 in NFL.
Nobody is talking about your data which you state as dogs are 57-32-2ATS, etc. He is not talking about spread records and that may be the source of confusion. Let me try to explain with a few different (similar meaning) words.
When you retrospectively analyze the outcomes of all NFL games INCLUDING PLAYOFFS, the spread does not matter in the outcome approximately 83% of the time. This means that if you can pick the WINNER of the game, make the bet and you will be cashing your tickets at an 83% clip. Conversely, you will lose those same bets 17% of the time. This is not a debatable topic. It is proven fact for many, many years. The only point of debate is whether someone understands the concept. This is not ATS.
Once again, here it is stated again in yet anothe way using this weekend's games as an example: GB -5.5 at St. Louis - if you think GB is going to win, lay the 5.5 as the number is not likely to come into play (Once again, 83% of the time if GB wins, they will win by more than 5.5). Using a different game as another example, let's look at Minnesota -6.5 at home playing AZ. If you have an opinion on this game and you believe AZ will beat MINN then play the ML on Arizona because we know that the point spread only will come into play at approximately 17% of the time. If you fell that MINN will win the game, then lay the 6.5 and don' go buying down to 6, etc.
If you don't agree with this, here is how you can prove it to yourself although it has been done for you precisely for weeks 1-6 by wizardofodd. And it has been done for decades by others. When week 7 is complete, go through the NFL results and ask yourself this simple question. Did the winner of the game cover the spread? Simple as that. Did the winner of the game cover the spread? If they were a dog and won outright, they covered the spread. If they were a favorite and won by more than the closing Vegas line, they covered the spread. Simple as that.
The only exception to this format is that DOUBLE DIGIT POINT SPREADS DO NOT APPLY TO THIS CONCEPT.
So when you check the results on Monday after the games have been played, you should find that approximately 17% of the time the point spread mattered in the outcome.
Bookie, when the poster says the spread only plays a part in 17 percent of the game, it doesnt have anything to do with the spread record of underdogs.
It means for example if you play all the underdogs on sunday, the spread is only gonna really come into play around 17 percent of the games. Meaning when the dogs win, they usually win outright, thus the spread is no factor.
I cant believe you didnt know this stat. Its almost the same every single year.
In other words, if you are able to pick the winner of the game, then the spread will only play a part in 17 percent of the games.
always play the money line on dogs .... create + money... collect juice dont pay it....
teasers that cut between key #'s can be very profitable...
best of luck
okay yes I get what you are saying now and I do know this. In NFL it is very profitable to play ML dogs...but not ML faves and In college it is not quite as profitable as NFL although it can be pretty decent...Its not that easy to pick the winner and look at tonights game...I need Seattle Huge and got it with the spread but if I played ML I would have lost
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