Forum: College Football Forum - Sponsored by:

Thread: How to win in Sports Betting. Advice from a local

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
  1. #51  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    an older brown van, down by the river
    Posts
    12,244
    #4 is GREAT advice
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #52  
    RX Junior IneedMoney6's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    172
    BR great stuff, but you are missing a KEY point in being sucessful. DO NOT CHASE. I spose that falls under dont raise your bets, but when people lose they tend to get all stressed about it and think that they can win it all back in one play. This is a recipe for disaster and you can have a winning record, but by doing this you will always lose in the long run. It is very hard and even I do it sometimes, money management is KEY. LOL ill prolly put 500 on ASU tonight when i usually bet 2-300. I feel pretty confident in that tho. Mariotas 2nd freshman start on the road and just there second road game this year. ASU is good on both sides of the ball and will be PUMPED UP for this game tonight
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #53  
    RX Senior palehose1's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    chicago ill
    Posts
    2,211
    I disagree on never playing teasers as I make more money on those than strate wagers in the NFL 2 teamers is the key and only do it IMO when you like the dog ie +3.5 becomes +10.5 creating Great Value.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #54  
    Winning is always JuiceFree JuiceFree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    232
    Here's another important discipline-

    Obviously, everyone who wagers are sports fans, and all sports fans have their favorite teams. If you are going to be a successful bettor, you CAN NOT have "my team". Having favorite teams is fine, we all have them but you need to be very careful when wagering on any game involving them. Too many people get sucked in to betting on "their team" because of sheer fan-blindness. The rule is this:

    If you can't ever bet against a certain team, then you should never bet on them
    Drink juice, don't pay it...
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #55  
    RX Member TimesYours's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Phila.
    Posts
    805
    Thanks for the reply.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #56  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    Quote Originally Posted by IneedMoney6 View Post
    BR great stuff, but you are missing a KEY point in being sucessful. DO NOT CHASE. I spose that falls under dont raise your bets, but when people lose they tend to get all stressed about it and think that they can win it all back in one play. This is a recipe for disaster and you can have a winning record, but by doing this you will always lose in the long run. It is very hard and even I do it sometimes, money management is KEY. LOL ill prolly put 500 on ASU tonight when i usually bet 2-300. I feel pretty confident in that tho. Mariotas 2nd freshman start on the road and just there second road game this year. ASU is good on both sides of the ball and will be PUMPED UP for this game tonight
    I agree with you...don't chase
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #57  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    North America
    Posts
    174
    Ridiculous advice. Buying points in Football on and off Key #'s 7 & 3 has tremendous value. Most books won't even let you buy off "3" anymore. Playing basic strategy teasers in the NFL are +EV and books despise anyone who bet's them properly. Parlays are outstanding if the lines on the parlay card are "stale" #'s. Correlated parlays have INSANE value. Just because you take +105 doesn't mean you have value especially at a razor sharp book like Pinny. They have opinions and are usually right. Ever hear of the "PINNY Lean" Sharpest outfit around. Betting the same amount on each game is foolish. You should be using Kelly Criterion to calculate bet size. Only good advice was #1 rest was crap lol
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #58  
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    North America
    Posts
    174
    Not really any game can move & lose value doesn't matter if it's favorite or the Dog. Oregon opened -11. Now the game is -8. Do you wish you took Oregon -11.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #59  
    Medium Rare 99steak's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Prison Library
    Posts
    1,684
    Copy paste from bettingresource.com....

    Patience and DisciplinePatience and discipline are the two most important things you need to have in order to find the edge and succeed in sports betting. Yes, these two are more important than money management itself because, without patience and discipline you wouldn't be able to successfully employ an efficient money management plan. In sports betting, having patience and discipline is a special ability--if you cannot master this special ability you will never find the edge or become a +ev bettor. It may seem easy but mastering this ability is very difficult, it is as hard as climbing a slippery and almost vertical hill; you can lose control and slip anytime. For most bettors it is virtually impossible to maintain patience and discipline in the long run. They might do everything perfectly for 1 week, 1 month or even a year but eventually they will momentarily lose that special ability and that moment is enough to destroy the bankroll.Most bettors begin with a short bankroll, perhaps a few hundred dollars. Often bettors who load their sportsbook with short bankroll find it impossible to maintain patience and discipline in a consistent basis because they will get bored of using proper money management on such small amount. As a result they will lose their bankroll frequently and re-load numerous times to accumulate losses. These bettors turn few hundred dollar losses into few thousand dollars in a matter of few weeks while dreaming of turning few hundred dollars into few thousand dollars of profit! Without patience and discipline your dream will never come true. If you fall into this category of bettors, we highly recommend that you wait patiently and collect these deposits without any action till you get a reasonable ($1000 minimum) bankroll.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #60  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,469
    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    this is an interesting question because most of my guys who play ML...they play the ML faves which is dumb...playing ML faves is definitely a losing proposition over time. In NFL I would ALWAYS play the Spread and never play the dog on the ML because the spread comes into play a lot in the NFL and the lines are tighter. However with CFB I do believe playing ML dogs is the way to go especially if the line is low like 6 or less...better odds than playing the spread and with so many games the lines are looser.
    Appreciate all the info and glad to see a pretty good information and discussion going on...kinda new for the rx if you ask me..lol.

    But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.


    Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
    Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered

    Total Games played: 91 games
    Spread came into play: 17 games

    Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #61  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    The Poker Room
    Posts
    2,215
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofodd View Post
    Appreciate all the info and glad to see a pretty good information and discussion going on...kinda new for the rx if you ask me..lol.

    But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.


    Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
    Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered

    Total Games played: 91 games
    Spread came into play: 17 games

    Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
    wiz- thanks for posting this, those #'s have pretty much held true for the past 25-30 years.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #62  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,469
    Quote Originally Posted by CoolBreeze22 View Post
    wiz- thanks for posting this, those #'s have pretty much held true for the past 25-30 years.
    Yea, its been pretty accurate for the past 7 years that I have, I havnt gone back 25-30 yrs on em though.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #63  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofodd View Post
    Appreciate all the info and glad to see a pretty good information and discussion going on...kinda new for the rx if you ask me..lol.

    But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.


    Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
    Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered

    Total Games played: 91 games
    Spread came into play: 17 games

    Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
    First the spread matters in every game...that is why they have them...No clue where you got your numbers but here are the #'s as follows
    Dogs are 57-32-2 ATS this year
    Dogs winning S/U are 40-51...that is a 17 game difference this year alone.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #64  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofodd View Post
    Appreciate all the info and glad to see a pretty good information and discussion going on...kinda new for the rx if you ask me..lol.

    But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.


    Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
    Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered

    Total Games played: 91 games
    Spread came into play: 17 games

    Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
    these numbers are taken out of context but I get your point.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #65  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,469
    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    First the spread matters in every game...that is why they have them...No clue where you got your numbers but here are the #'s as follows
    Dogs are 57-32-2 ATS this year
    Dogs winning S/U are 40-51...that is a 17 game difference this year alone.
    Numbers are on closing lines that I have. Those are for if the spread comes into play.

    Last week for example, 14 games played, 3 games where the spread mattered:
    Oakland+10 @ Atlanta
    StLouis+5 @ Miami
    Dallas+3.5 @ Balty

    Other than that, either the dog won SU or the favorite covered the spread in the other 11 games played week 6 in NFL.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #66  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofodd View Post
    Numbers are on closing lines that I have. Those are for if the spread comes into play.

    Last week for example, 14 games played, 3 games where the spread mattered:
    Oakland+10 @ Atlanta
    StLouis+5 @ Miami
    Dallas+3.5 @ Balty

    Other than that, either the dog won SU or the favorite covered the spread in the other 11 games played week 6 in NFL.
    having 3...that is signifigant
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #67  
    RX - Prescription Required
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Between The Sheets
    Posts
    1,388
    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    First the spread matters in every game...that is why they have them...No clue where you got your numbers but here are the #'s as follows
    Dogs are 57-32-2 ATS this year
    Dogs winning S/U are 40-51...that is a 17 game difference this year alone.
    Perhaps there is a misunderstanding, but wizardofodd is correct in his presentation that the point spread matteres only 17% of the time IN THE NFL . . . Not college. So far this year it is around 18% but over many many years it has stabilized closer to 17%.

    Nobody is talking about your data which you state as dogs are 57-32-2ATS, etc. He is not talking about spread records and that may be the source of confusion. Let me try to explain with a few different (similar meaning) words.

    When you retrospectively analyze the outcomes of all NFL games INCLUDING PLAYOFFS, the spread does not matter in the outcome approximately 83% of the time. This means that if you can pick the WINNER of the game, make the bet and you will be cashing your tickets at an 83% clip. Conversely, you will lose those same bets 17% of the time. This is not a debatable topic. It is proven fact for many, many years. The only point of debate is whether someone understands the concept. This is not ATS.

    Once again, here it is stated again in yet anothe way using this weekend's games as an example: GB -5.5 at St. Louis - if you think GB is going to win, lay the 5.5 as the number is not likely to come into play (Once again, 83% of the time if GB wins, they will win by more than 5.5). Using a different game as another example, let's look at Minnesota -6.5 at home playing AZ. If you have an opinion on this game and you believe AZ will beat MINN then play the ML on Arizona because we know that the point spread only will come into play at approximately 17% of the time. If you fell that MINN will win the game, then lay the 6.5 and don' go buying down to 6, etc.

    If you don't agree with this, here is how you can prove it to yourself although it has been done for you precisely for weeks 1-6 by wizardofodd. And it has been done for decades by others. When week 7 is complete, go through the NFL results and ask yourself this simple question. Did the winner of the game cover the spread? Simple as that. Did the winner of the game cover the spread? If they were a dog and won outright, they covered the spread. If they were a favorite and won by more than the closing Vegas line, they covered the spread. Simple as that.

    The only exception to this format is that DOUBLE DIGIT POINT SPREADS DO NOT APPLY TO THIS CONCEPT.

    So when you check the results on Monday after the games have been played, you should find that approximately 17% of the time the point spread mattered in the outcome.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #68  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    u.s.a.
    Posts
    3,760
    Bookie, when the poster says the spread only plays a part in 17 percent of the game, it doesnt have anything to do with the spread record of underdogs.
    It means for example if you play all the underdogs on sunday, the spread is only gonna really come into play around 17 percent of the games. Meaning when the dogs win, they usually win outright, thus the spread is no factor.

    I cant believe you didnt know this stat. Its almost the same every single year.

    In other words, if you are able to pick the winner of the game, then the spread will only play a part in 17 percent of the games.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #69  
    RX Wizard Willye's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Costa Rica
    Posts
    7,618
    always play the money line on dogs .... create + money... collect juice dont pay it....

    teasers that cut between key #'s can be very profitable...

    best of luck
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #70  
    RX Wizard Willye's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Costa Rica
    Posts
    7,618
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofodd View Post
    Appreciate all the info and glad to see a pretty good information and discussion going on...kinda new for the rx if you ask me..lol.

    But about your comment, I had some numbers which I will have to dig up and see if I can find them, but the spread only comes into affect roughly around 17% of ALL NFL games and I had about 5+ years worth of stats on it. If the dog covers, they usually win SU, or if the fav wins, they usually cover. This year is already a different year than others as dogs are covering at a pretty good rate.


    Week 1: 16 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 2: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 3: 16 games, 2 games which the spread mattered
    Week 4: 15 games, 4 games which the spread mattered
    Week 5: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered
    Week 6: 14 games, 3 games which the spread mattered

    Total Games played: 91 games
    Spread came into play: 17 games

    Current: 18.68% of times has the spread come into play this season
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #71  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    Quote Originally Posted by Willye View Post
    always play the money line on dogs .... create + money... collect juice dont pay it....

    teasers that cut between key #'s can be very profitable...

    best of luck
    absolutely
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #72  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    okay yes I get what you are saying now and I do know this. In NFL it is very profitable to play ML dogs...but not ML faves and In college it is not quite as profitable as NFL although it can be pretty decent...Its not that easy to pick the winner and look at tonights game...I need Seattle Huge and got it with the spread but if I played ML I would have lost
    Reply With Quote  
     

  23. #73  
    RX Wizard Willye's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Costa Rica
    Posts
    7,618
    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    okay yes I get what you are saying now and I do know this. In NFL it is very profitable to play ML dogs...but not ML faves and In college it is not quite as profitable as NFL although it can be pretty decent...Its not that easy to pick the winner and look at tonights game...I need Seattle Huge and got it with the spread but if I played ML I would have lost


    best of luck
    Reply With Quote  
     

  24. #74  
    RX Senior Bruins4Life's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Burlington, Ont.
    Posts
    2,371
    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    First the spread matters in every game...that is why they have them...No clue where you got your numbers but here are the #'s as follows
    Dogs are 57-32-2 ATS this year
    Dogs winning S/U are 40-51...that is a 17 game difference this year alone.

    When Seattle beat New England last week, how did the spread matter?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  25. #75  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,082
    Quote Originally Posted by Bruins4Life View Post
    When Seattle beat New England last week, how did the spread matter?
    it didnt matter
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •