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Thread: How to win in Sports Betting. Advice from a local

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  1. #76  
    RX Wizard jblonghorn's Avatar
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    sheeez guys, ease up. Damn. BB simply tried to write some quick notes and folks get all crazy trying to correct him and add bullet points and stuff. Just chill. If you know what to do, do it.
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  2. #77  
    RX Senior comrade666's Avatar
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    I have a question
    what about doing high dollar moneyline bets on clear favorites
    Like +500 type moneylines. Could you be successful long term doing that ?
    I know someone who swears they have done it for years and made lots of money
    Power to the PEOPLE

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  3. #78  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    There are more but these were some off the top of my head...More to come later
    Those are good advice but if people followed it, you'll be out of business. lol The first advice I would give someone is don't think you can make a living betting sports cause you can't. There are exceptions of course but those are far and few. One of the top reasons most people fail is because whatever they win, they throw it all back in and more. The advice about betting similar amounts is so true. Once people start winning, they'll double or triple their bets and all the winnings from going 4-0 goes down the tubes on one game.

    Another reason people fail is because of karma. You can study all you want, put all the stats in a computer or whatever they do but some people cannot win because they're just bad luck. Those people are better off flipping a coin. But you need those people to keep bookmaking alive so there's never a shortage of them.

    All in all, people should appreciate what you post here because it is great information. It's up to them to dissect it and put it to good use. Keep up the good work and may you keep on taking money from the public.
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  4. #79  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    First the spread matters in every game...that is why they have them...No clue where you got your numbers but here are the #'s as follows
    Dogs are 57-32-2 ATS this year
    Dogs winning S/U are 40-51...that is a 17 game difference this year alone.
    Now can you tell me the profit in terms of units if someone had bet 1 unit on all those games. I am guessing, the dog winning straight up would have higher profit?
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  5. #80  
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    Quote Originally Posted by comrade666 View Post
    I have a question
    what about doing high dollar moneyline bets on clear favorites
    Like +500 type moneylines. Could you be successful long term doing that ?
    I know someone who swears they have done it for years and made lots of money
    i play alot of moneylines you just have to stick to it... once your get burnt a few times some will get gunshy
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  6. #81  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by comrade666 View Post
    I have a question
    what about doing high dollar moneyline bets on clear favorites
    Like +500 type moneylines. Could you be successful long term doing that ?
    I know someone who swears they have done it for years and made lots of money
    I think you would really have to know what you are doing and pick your spots...I have some guys, that is all they do.
    and big high line parlays like Bowling Green -800 and No Illinois -630 Georgia -3400
    Chances are this will hit...it is not very profitable but it does win money. the problem is win one of them loses...which happens more than you think. they lose a lot of money...they have to hit these about 80% to break even
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  7. #82  
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    This is probably one of the best posts, anybody has ever posted on this site. Without a doubt you are 100 percent correct with both rules.
    VERY VERY VERY FEW GAMBLERS WIN BETTING, THATS WHY BOOKING IS THE WAY TO GO


    Quote Originally Posted by alkimyst View Post
    Here are the best and easiest two rules to profit at sports betting. They are very simple and will never change.

    1. Don't ever do it........but,......since most red-blooded American males are going to have a little something on the line on autumn Saturdays and Sundays, simply follow rule #2.

    2. BE A BOOKIE.
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  8. #83  
    RX Senior comrade666's Avatar
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    Thanks for taking the time to answer my question bookie and willye
    Power to the PEOPLE

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  9. #84  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cd329 View Post
    This is probably one of the best posts, anybody has ever posted on this site. Without a doubt you are 100 percent correct with both rules.
    VERY VERY VERY FEW GAMBLERS WIN BETTING, THATS WHY BOOKING IS THE WAY TO GO
    I think those who win regularly in sportsbetting do not post on sports gambling web sites. I think they are few in number, but believe they do exist. What they know about handicapping and betting strategies you will not find on the net. They understand exactly what it is they're looking for and they also understand why. And not only that, their method of handicapping allows them to know the margin of cover. That kind of information is not to be shared. Their biggest problem is staying incognito. Think about it, how could you protect yourself from the on line books or your local if you never lost another wager? They would simply stop taking your action. That's a nice problem to have and I believe some do. Lastly, I think the money they win, though substantial, does not come anywhere close to the amount that is lost by JQP. JMO.
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  10. #85  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    If you want to win...or at least not lose in sports betting then there are a few things you need to know and some things you need to not do. These are my opinions but after seeing thousands of guys bet different, the ones that are successful do the same things.
    1. Treat this like a business...Don't bet on a game just to have action. Only bet on games you feel good about.
    2. Don't ever play a parlay or teaser. These are in the books favor...you can win a few of these but overtime the payout is negative.
    3. Bet around the same amount on each play. Sure you can throw a little more now and then but generally you should play all the games for about the same amount.
    4. A good rule of thumb is if you like the favorite or over then play it early in the week and if you like the dog or under, wait til right before game time to place the bet.
    5. Take advantage of books like pinnacle who give you +juice like +105. Heck placing those bets it is like you are the bookie.
    6. Don't buy any points. You will be tempted to do it a lot. You see 7.5 and buy down to 7 or 2.5 and buy to 3...It may save you from time to time but I am telling you overtime this will crush you.
    7. Know where the action is. This doesn't mean you cant play public plays but try to avoid them as much as possible.

    There are more but these were some off the top of my head...More to come later

    Most important one in terms of action is #2.
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  11. #86  
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    bump
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  12. #87  
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    Nice bump Bookie. I'm sure a few in here can add to it. I might bring a few links over from my own site too. This is always an interesting subject and discussion because of the differing points of view on sports betting.
    "I'm not a Republican, but I'm saving up to be one"
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  13. #88  
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoSooners View Post
    Nice bump Bookie. I'm sure a few in here can add to it. I might bring a few links over from my own site too. This is always an interesting subject and discussion because of the differing points of view on sports betting.
    Absolutely. Love to see what you have
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  14. #89  
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    Mr. B, read through some of the past post but would like to ask you to consider starting a new thread for today, with the values you most admire from this jewel many appreciate.

    Just a request that might help new guys to the RX CFB forum. Thanks Bud.
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  15. #90  
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    Here's a couple articles on advantage wagering and money management from our website that you may find helpful:


    http://www.saturdayedge.com/8912/how...xpected-value/


    http://www.saturdayedge.com/9328/mon...lly-criterion/
    "I'm not a Republican, but I'm saving up to be one"
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  16. #91  
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    I have been in the gaming business for a lot of years. This includes casino gaming and poker, as well as sports wagering. I know a lot of people who are very successful in the business. I, myself, have made some very good money. All of us have several things in common. Here is a lost of some of those things:

    1. PATIENCE!!!!! You have to understand that you are in this for the long run, and the long run means years, not just weeks. As you start to acquire money, you can wager higher amounts in the NEXT season, burt do not vary your wagers in a season. My firends and I have done well financially, but we are talking 40 years of gaming, not just 40 weeks.

    2. Develop a system or systems that you are comfortable with. Trying to play someone elses system can be confusing and cause you to become hesitant. Find something that works for you. DO NOT become a follower. If you have to follow someone, you should not be gambling.

    3. Study the results of every game. Forget about bad calls by officials. That is part of the game. Find out where your system succeeded if you win, or where it failed if you lose. Remember, the ONLY reason why you lose a wager is because you wagered on the wrong team. Accept that. Do NOt look for excuses. Too many guys come crying in here after they take what they think is a "bad beat." Learn to live with it.

    4. You have to have it in you. Just like athletes who have special talents that just cannot be taught, so do gamblers. You have to have that instinct which you must trust. If your gut says to pass on a game, then pass. Now most gamblers do not have this instinct. It is something that some are born with. It cannot be taught. You can learn from this instinct, but you cannot develop it on your own.

    5. Do NOT trust anyone, but listen to everyone. 85% of the people who wager are losers. A lot of information you are going to see in here, and other sites like this one, is going to be incorrect. Many systems will be discussed. The reason why you should read everything is because someone may have that one idea, or thought, that can change your mind. There could be that one angle or stat that you were not aware of that could change your mind. Most of the time, it will take you off of a wager, but occasionally, it may help you choose a team to wager on.

    6. Remember this. Sommetimes the best wager is NO wager at all. Passing on a game guarantees that you will not lose. If you are not sure, pass. If you hit 56% of your wagers you are doing well, so why gamble on something you are not sure about?
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  17. #92  
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    All are great, but the first one is the key...everything else follows suit after making #1 the priority

    I've been consistently profitable over the long haul since posting here in 2006 and the Saturday Edge last season and it's all about treating it like a business...Examples:

    It's 7pm and i'm 2-0 on the day and while everyone is gearing up for the Prime time games at night i'm done for the day with a profit because i don't see an edge in the late games...so i'll watch and enjoy...and it's a pretty good feeling knowing that no matter what happens for the rest of saturday i go into next week having padded my account and no one can change that

    A friend will ask me who i like this week and i tell them that the wake forest/uva under is a strong play but it's not even on tv...or minn/illinois is a game so boring they won't even want to watch it but the under looks great...they're not interested and instead ask me what i think of usc/oregon or alabama/lsu...and after both my plays cover by 20pts and i ask if they took them they tell me no, or even worse they parlayed them with 2 other losers...

    that's the difference between treating wagering like a business and "gambling"

    btw-never buy points and never play teasers/parlays...but, quite honestly, when you really start to understand "wagering", which is mainly about PROBABILITIES, you will realize that there is no reason for either...and as badly as you would like to "buy" a point or tease or parlay, you will realize that if you want to adhere to rule #1, the most important rule, then you can't let yourself buy or parlay

    good luck
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  18. #93  
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    I never treat this is a business, I think once you do that, you will be broke, not just that but the fun is gone.

    I think betting the same amount is the key. It's how you stay in the game. Nothing worse than having more games to bet on but no money to bet with. I only do 1 unit a game, and very rarely I go 2 units.

    I have seen all those fancy stats, etc, and from fom my experience, all systems are losing systems (at least long term it is). I take everything game by game.

    I have been profitable in College Football and the NFL for 8 straight years. Not huge gains, but gains none the less. The last 2 years though have been very good to me thanks to the Super Bowl. Superbowl is when I cash out, and I do not start up again till about June, that's when I start reloading my accounts.

    My goal each year is to LOSE 40 units. Since that goal has been in place, instead of losing 40 units, I end up positive at about 50-60 units =(
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  19. #94  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Junk47 View Post
    ..................

    6. Remember this. Sometimes the best wager is NO wager at all. Passing on a game guarantees that you will not lose. If you are not sure, pass. If you hit 56% of your wagers you are doing well, so why gamble on something you are not sure about?
    Is this just about rules to live by???? I don't understand the purpose of this thread being bumped. I just hate it when someone drags up a post from way back when.... but since it has been done already, I may as well comment here.

    There is one distinct advantage a bettor has over the book. The bettor doesn't have to put action on everything that comes his way that's on the board, however the bookmaker does. For the player, it's all about what he chooses to wager on... the book has no choice.
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  20. #95  
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    Conan, the book has a choice. The book can adjust lines to either encourage, or discourage the bettor from playing certain games. This is doe all of the time, especially in off shore books that depend on the small players for most of their action. Just look at the UGA-Clemson game. The Nugget has UGA -3.5, and 5Dimes has Clemson -2. Obviously someone is trying to discourage action, and knowing how small the max wager is at 5Dimes, it may be them.
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  21. #96  
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    i like the point about bet timing and ats fave/udog over/under.
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  22. #97  
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    I am new in betting and this stuff really seems helpful for me ,,Thanks..



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