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Thread: How to win in Sports Betting. Advice from a local

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  1. #1 How to win in Sports Betting. Advice from a local 
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
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    If you want to win...or at least not lose in sports betting then there are a few things you need to know and some things you need to not do. These are my opinions but after seeing thousands of guys bet different, the ones that are successful do the same things.
    1. Treat this like a business...Don't bet on a game just to have action. Only bet on games you feel good about.
    2. Don't ever play a parlay or teaser. These are in the books favor...you can win a few of these but overtime the payout is negative.
    3. Bet around the same amount on each play. Sure you can throw a little more now and then but generally you should play all the games for about the same amount.
    4. A good rule of thumb is if you like the favorite or over then play it early in the week and if you like the dog or under, wait til right before game time to place the bet.
    5. Take advantage of books like pinnacle who give you +juice like +105. Heck placing those bets it is like you are the bookie.
    6. Don't buy any points. You will be tempted to do it a lot. You see 7.5 and buy down to 7 or 2.5 and buy to 3...It may save you from time to time but I am telling you overtime this will crush you.
    7. Know where the action is. This doesn't mean you cant play public plays but try to avoid them as much as possible.

    There are more but these were some off the top of my head...More to come later
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  2. #2  
    RX Junior Charlie J's Avatar
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    Good stuff
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  3. #3  
    RX Junior RTR's Avatar
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    Thanks for the reminder Bookie. I think #1 and #3 are where most people fail the test.
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  4. #4  
    Rx Post Doc Tulsa's Avatar
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    >>>3. Bet around the same amount on each play. Sure you can throw a little more now and then but generally you should play all the games for about the same amount. <<<

    What if you do a percentage of your balance? Like 7% of your balance is a 1 unit play or maybe 5% or whatever. That way, as you increase your capital, your wagers increase in dollar amount. If you have a bad few rounds, your wagers are dropped accordingly...

    In short, how about percentage wager rather than set dollar amount?

    Great post, and thanks.

    tulsa
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  5. #5  
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    Cheers to this..... thank you BR.
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  6. #6  
    RX Senior TNVOLFAN's Avatar
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    Very good solid advice. I try to adhere to all. I never-ever tease a
    college fb game thats my #1 rule!! However on few occasions I will
    play a 2 team teaser in the NFL. Looking for a big week this week.
    Ala should roll Tn. I just dont see how Tn. weak def. can slow Bama
    down. However they usually play their best GOY against Bama, but
    Tn's def. has huge holes & I cant see that happening this year.
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bookiereport View Post
    3. Bet around the same amount on each play. Sure you can throw a little more now and then but generally you should play all the games for about the same amount.
    How would you apply this to your star system? As always thanks for the info.
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  8. #8  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rjohnny View Post
    How would you apply this to your star system? As always thanks for the info.
    good question...I would play them all pretty close really...I am only posting the * to show you how lopsided and how bad I need a play. That doesn't mean you have to unload when I am loaded up however the 5* def hit higher than the 2*. Personally this is what I would do. I would say if you are a $100 player. 1* - dont play at all 2* - play 100 3*-play 120 4*play 125 5*150
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  9. #9  
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    Toss in Never Chase / Never Drunk ......Sometimes they go hand in hand .
    Thanks for the post .
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  10. #10  
    RX SemiGod bookiereport's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by douglas View Post
    Toss in Never Chase / Never Drunk ......Sometimes they go hand in hand .
    Thanks for the post .
    Definitely...goes with #1 treat as a business.good one
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  11. #11  
    RX Member chi-cat's Avatar
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    all great advice! thanks bookie!
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  12. #12  
    RX Member schrome's Avatar
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    Bookie-important one as well is limit the amount of games you bet at 1 time, i have great difficulty with this and 9-10 times you push and loose juice
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  13. #13  
    RX Member BigKahuna's Avatar
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    Great info for a fairly new player. Been playing for about 3 years now. I am a teaser/parlay player. And yes I do hit a few parlays here and there. But I love teaser! I hit a lot of 4team 6point teasers. It's what bails me out over and over time and time again. And I see what you mean about college teasers. 2 weeks ago I hit 3 teasers and a 3 team parlay. But last week, I lost 4 teaser and 2 parlays. I'm still learning and I appreciate all the advice that I get from everyone. Overall after 3 years of gambling, my record is in the losing side. But not by that much. I'm a small bettor. I bet small for a bigger payout, which I know is what alot of guys do. But the more I come here on this site talking to you guys, the smarter I am getting. I'm so appreciative for all you guys and what you guys teach here FOR FREE! Keep up the good work guys. Mahalo! (means thanks in hawaiian)
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  14. #14  
    "I can't be faded", Dr. Dre mhk's Avatar
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    What if you do a percentage of your balance? Like 7% of your balance is a 1 unit play or maybe 5% or whatever. That way, as you increase your capital, your wagers increase in dollar amount. If you have a bad few rounds, your wagers are dropped accordingly...

    In short, how about percentage wager rather than set dollar amount?

    Great post, and thanks.

    tulsa
    [/QUOTE]

    Yes Tulsa, bet same percentage, as bankroll goes up/down, so do wagers. Percentage wagers are the way to go.
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  15. #15  
    RX Wizard skyla316's Avatar
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    good advice and yes I agree that % betting is the way to go. Amount wagered doesnt matter cause it will go up and down accorsing to the % you bet. Just keep it the same or close to the same, then when you win, your % represents for money but if you are losing, you dont lose as much
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  16. #16  
    RX Senior Bruins4Life's Avatar
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    I keep arguing that buying points is a losing proposition in the long run. However, a lot of people here disagree. I NEVER buy points. For me the greatest proof of this is that the spread only comes into play 17% of the time in the NFL. The juice you pay on losses can never be made up if you buy points regularily.
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruins4Life View Post
    I keep arguing that buying points is a losing proposition in the long run. However, a lot of people here disagree. I NEVER buy points. For me the greatest proof of this is that the spread only comes into play 17% of the time in the NFL. The juice you pay on losses can never be made up if you buy points regularily.
    The volatility of scoring in football is WAY up these past couple of years, I've had good success actually selling points to make +juice wagers. It will occasionally bite you but if you stay away from selling off key #'s I've found it to be worth the effort..
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  18. #18  
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    I love to sell points when it is possible. Even if i risk a push for plus money.
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  19. #19  
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    Yeah agreed, if you sell a whole point off a flat number you usually get plus money and only risk going from a win to a push or a push to a loss. If your smart by doing things like avoiding big key numbers and using games where the total is higher (indicating higher expected final score volatility) you can really make a difference.

    I know 5dimes is good about letting you sell points with a reasonable return, but I haven't really had much luck finding any other ones that offer a good return (looking at you, Heritage). Anyone have any others they like to sell points with?
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  20. #20  
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    Excellent advice Bookie! I sure hope some of the newer guys read and heed. I've been at this for many years and I can tell you from personal experience that this is the best advice you will ever get from this or any other forum. Bruin I agree with you. I never pay more than 110 ever if possible. (some exclusions in baseball) The only other thing I would add to Bookie's fine advice is just use common sense and don't get caught up in the moment.


    BOL TO ALL FISH
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  21. #21  
    Rx Paper Chaser adub034's Avatar
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    Great advice Bookie!

    There was a thread last year that someone posted about the key numbers and explanations...

    Can some explain or repost?

    Thx and GL to all!
    "Life is a gamble, when I'm all about my poker chips"
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  22. #22  
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    Could you share your thoughts on when to play underdog MLs?
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  23. #23  
    I use this tip: Check with THERX forum before making your decision.
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  24. #24  
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    I was once told by someone way smarter than me that he played all dogs on the ML when the spread was 7 or greater....now he would play the spread and then just sprinkle a little (we're talking fractions of his regular bet) on the ML...if its a small % of ur bet losing on the ML and winning on the spread isn't too bad, and the wins are even better. Hope this helps
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  25. #25  
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    Also I think there is no set plan for playing ML dogs.... It has to be a feel type of thing...
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