Exbookie wants to help the players week 7

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EX BOOKIE
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411 system now 4-4


How to beat over/unders


It is important to understand the consequences of the scoring rules of pro-football. The most important thing to be learned is that certain over/under lines are much more vulnerable than others. This tells us that it is not advisable to automatically place a bet whenever your prediction is a specific amount from the posted line - that is, beware of laying a bet every time your forecast is, say, 7 points or 10 points or 4 points - or whatever - higher or lower than the posted line. Different lines simply have different degrees of significance.
These are the ten key over/under lines:
30 - 33 - 37 - 38 - 41 - 44 - 45 - 47 - 48 - 51

More than 1/3 of all pro-football games figure to end in one or another of those ten totals. Notice that even though 43 is both the average and the median total score of the 1,218 games, no less than 19 other total scores occurred as many or more times. This proves that forecasts using the theory of standard deviation are worthless and even harmful.
It is important to understand the patterns shown here. Check any multiple of 7 and add 2 to that multiple; those are the most prominent total scores.
(23 - 30 - 37 - 44 - 51 - 58)

Check any multiple of 7 and add 4 to that multiple; those are the least prominent total scores.
(25 - 32 - 39 - 46 - 53 - 60)
About half of the 1,218 games ended with total scores between 37 and 52 points.


NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM

BET ALL GAMES THAT IS UNDER 37.5....................1-0 THIS YEAR (THURSDAYS THERE IS ANOTHER GAME)

BET ALL GAMES OVER 51.5...................................5-2 THIS YEAR



One I use all the time (only on the unders)


go to http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/T-TYDSG/2012/regular?&_3:col_1=6

use Yds/G take one team OAKLAND 350 + JAX 241 = 591 (alway use -325) = 266 than div by 7.5 = 35
this game is set at 43......



so


the value on that Under is +8

do that to each game and its away to see the value in the bookie line!!!!!




More to come


Ace-Ace
 

EX BOOKIE
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STATS VS ATS

HOME 44
AWAY 47

OVER 47
UNDER 46

DOGS 56
FAV 35
THIS IS 61 % OF ALL WINS ARE DOGS!!!...i THINK THIS ONLY HAPPEN 3 YEARS OUT OF THE LAST 15....OVER 60%!!!....SO IF YOU LIVE OR DIE BY THE FAV...YOU ARE NOT DOING WELL THIS YEAR.

POINTS THAT MATTER 15 OUT OF 91 GAMES 16%


ACE
 

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Good luck this week Ace. I see you have 10 plays 4 CFB and 6 NFL. 411 system is a NFL 5* play . GO 10-0 buddy!
 

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interesting....what's your source of info...Doc's ?

Yes , why? It's no secret that I check Docs front page daily, no biggie. Feel bad for Ace that he has to come up with so many plays because Doc wants that many. Having 10 plays this weekend is a recipe for disaster when vigs are involved. He should just give his BEST CFB play and BEST NFL play only. Ace you are money and I have a funny feeling you will win big this week. THE DUE FACTOR COMES TO PLAY HERE!
 

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not sure I agree

Investment plays 3-5 -$5025.00
Action plays 14-14 -$572.00
Total 17-19 -$5597.00
411 system now 4-4


How to beat over/unders


It is important to understand the consequences of the scoring rules of pro-football. The most important thing to be learned is that certain over/under lines are much more vulnerable than others. This tells us that it is not advisable to automatically place a bet whenever your prediction is a specific amount from the posted line - that is, beware of laying a bet every time your forecast is, say, 7 points or 10 points or 4 points - or whatever - higher or lower than the posted line. Different lines simply have different degrees of significance.
These are the ten key over/under lines:
30 - 33 - 37 - 38 - 41 - 44 - 45 - 47 - 48 - 51

More than 1/3 of all pro-football games figure to end in one or another of those ten totals. Notice that even though 43 is both the average and the median total score of the 1,218 games, no less than 19 other total scores occurred as many or more times. This proves that forecasts using the theory of standard deviation are worthless and even harmful.
It is important to understand the patterns shown here. Check any multiple of 7 and add 2 to that multiple; those are the most prominent total scores.
(23 - 30 - 37 - 44 - 51 - 58)

Check any multiple of 7 and add 4 to that multiple; those are the least prominent total scores.
(25 - 32 - 39 - 46 - 53 - 60)
About half of the 1,218 games ended with total scores between 37 and 52 points.


NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM

BET ALL GAMES THAT IS UNDER 37.5....................1-0 THIS YEAR (THURSDAYS THERE IS ANOTHER GAME)

BET ALL GAMES OVER 51.5...................................5-2 THIS YEAR



One I use all the time (only on the unders)


go to http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/T-TYDSG/2012/regular?&_3:col_1=6

use Yds/G take one team OAKLAND 350 + JAX 241 = 591 (alway use -325) = 266 than div by 7.5 = 35
this game is set at 43......



so


the value on that Under is +8

do that to each game and its away to see the value in the bookie line!!!!!




More to come


Ace-Ace


Your saying to play all totals under 37.5?

I disagree since 1989 in the NFL these are:

O/U:713-652-29 (1.69, 52.2%) avg total: 35.4 the over hits 52.2%!






Looking at over 51.5:

O/U:43-39-1 (0.58, 52.4%) avg total: 54.4 not profitable either
 

EX BOOKIE
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Your saying to play all totals under 37.5?

I disagree since 1989 in the NFL these are:

O/U:
713-652-29 (1.69, 52.2%)

avg total: 35.4 the over hits 52.2%!






Looking at over 51.5:

O/U:
43-39-1 (0.58, 52.4%)
avg total: 54.4 not profitable either

Avg has change from back in 1989....just showing what it did this year.

great stats you came up with. thanks
 

EX BOOKIE
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Yes , why? It's no secret that I check Docs front page daily, no biggie. Feel bad for Ace that he has to come up with so many plays because Doc wants that many. Having 10 plays this weekend is a recipe for disaster when vigs are involved. He should just give his BEST CFB play and BEST NFL play only. Ace you are money and I have a funny feeling you will win big this week. THE DUE FACTOR COMES TO PLAY HERE!

no one tell me how many plays to play!...been doing this for 7 years at docsports and have only lost one year. its all about the units you put on the plays or money....only two investment plays this week those are the best of the best.
 

EX BOOKIE
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lines for week 8

MIN -6

GB-11.5

NYJ -2.5

SD-3

TEN -4

NE -8.5

PHI -2.5

CHI -7.5

DET -3

PIT -5

KC -2.5

DAL -2

DEN -3.5

SF -5.5

 

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Avg has change from back in 1989....just showing what it did this year.


Looking at totals under 37.5 since 2006:

O/U:77-66-2 (1.57, 53.8%)




under
51.5 since 2006:


O/U:20-17-0 (0.78, 54.1%
 

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first off I love your help approach, here is what I would call variance to an extreme, but still mind-boggling:

NFC dogs this season are 34-4 ATS including 25-13 straight up with an average line of +4.4

If they are a dog of 5 or less they are 25-1 ATS and 21-5 straight up to an average line of +3

If they are a dog of 5 or less and playing to a total of less than 51 they are 24-0 ATS and 20-4 straight up also to an average line of +3
 

EX BOOKIE
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first off I love your help approach, here is what I would call variance to an extreme, but still mind-boggling:

NFC dogs this season are 34-4 ATS including 25-13 straight up with an average line of +4.4

If they are a dog of 5 or less they are 25-1 ATS and 21-5 straight up to an average line of +3

If they are a dog of 5 or less and playing to a total of less than 51 they are 24-0 ATS and 20-4 straight up also to an average line of +3



My kind of guy....you are a true stat guy!
 

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first off I love your help approach, here is what I would call variance to an extreme, but still mind-boggling:

NFC dogs this season are 34-4 ATS including 25-13 straight up with an average line of +4.4

If they are a dog of 5 or less they are 25-1 ATS and 21-5 straight up to an average line of +3

If they are a dog of 5 or less and playing to a total of less than 51 they are 24-0 ATS and 20-4 straight up also to an average line of +3


Is this NFC vs AFC, a certain NFC conference, or all games?
 

New member
Joined
Jan 13, 2007
Messages
288
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Investment plays 3-5 -$5025.00
Action plays 14-14 -$572.00
Total 17-19 -$5597.00
411 system now 4-4


How to beat over/unders


It is important to understand the consequences of the scoring rules of pro-football. The most important thing to be learned is that certain over/under lines are much more vulnerable than others. This tells us that it is not advisable to automatically place a bet whenever your prediction is a specific amount from the posted line - that is, beware of laying a bet every time your forecast is, say, 7 points or 10 points or 4 points - or whatever - higher or lower than the posted line. Different lines simply have different degrees of significance.
These are the ten key over/under lines:
30 - 33 - 37 - 38 - 41 - 44 - 45 - 47 - 48 - 51

More than 1/3 of all pro-football games figure to end in one or another of those ten totals. Notice that even though 43 is both the average and the median total score of the 1,218 games, no less than 19 other total scores occurred as many or more times. This proves that forecasts using the theory of standard deviation are worthless and even harmful.
It is important to understand the patterns shown here. Check any multiple of 7 and add 2 to that multiple; those are the most prominent total scores.
(23 - 30 - 37 - 44 - 51 - 58)

Check any multiple of 7 and add 4 to that multiple; those are the least prominent total scores.
(25 - 32 - 39 - 46 - 53 - 60)
About half of the 1,218 games ended with total scores between 37 and 52 points.


NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM

BET ALL GAMES THAT IS UNDER 37.5....................1-0 THIS YEAR (THURSDAYS THERE IS ANOTHER GAME)

BET ALL GAMES OVER 51.5...................................5-2 THIS YEAR



One I use all the time (only on the unders)


go to http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/T-TYDSG/2012/regular?&_3:col_1=6

use Yds/G take one team OAKLAND 350 + JAX 241 = 591 (alway use -325) = 266 than div by 7.5 = 35
this game is set at 43......



so


the value on that Under is +8

do that to each game and its away to see the value in the bookie line!!!!!




More to come


Ace-Ace


Ace, can you explain how, what, where you came up with those numbers I am assuming the - 325 is the nfl yards per game average if that is incorrect tell me, but what is the Divide by 7.5 come from and what does it mean?

thx
 

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first off I love your help approach, here is what I would call variance to an extreme, but still mind-boggling:

NFC dogs this season are 34-4 ATS including 25-13 straight up with an average line of +4.4

If they are a dog of 5 or less they are 25-1 ATS and 21-5 straight up to an average line of +3

If they are a dog of 5 or less and playing to a total of less than 51 they are 24-0 ATS and 20-4 straight up also to an average line of +3


Good information Mreast :103631605
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ace...Do most of the dogs that cover also win outright ?

56 won vs the Spread 15 of those did not win the game ...but they cover...this is what "points that matter mean" = dogs that cover but did not win
 

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