The Cat's MLB Playoff Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - October 17, 2012 - YTD: 7-9 (2012 Season: 361-329-47; 108-82-20, 57% from Aug 2-on)

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2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 7-9, -$179
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Okay, nice to grab the under victory in last night’s game but I hardly deserve any praise for it, if any at all, as like I said, I’m honest with everything I say on here, and that was a game where if it took place on your typical 15-game Tuesday night schedule, I would not have went after it. But in any case, I was able to escape from Hughes vs Verlander under with a win, and that’s it. Today’s a new day, and despite my despise towards Yankees over/unders in general, since they’re one of my worst teams to bet on, it’s the game that I will again be attacking tonight, as the Cain vs Lohse matchup that is going on right now (I was going to take the under) is allegedly supposed to be marred by awful weather, including “100-percent” thunderstorms over a two hour stretch, and there’s nothing worse than having a bet directly impacted by precipitation or rain delays (As Jeremy Hefner’s first Major League start further emphasized back in May/June in my Stults vs Hefner under on a Thursday night that was on pace before a rain delay ruined it; only reason it lost, as Hefner even discussed afterward! I was incredibly angry that night because of it). So let’s review what I've mustered up this evening…


CC Sabathia vs Max Scherzer OVER 7 - Price TBD
Yes, apparently I have not learned the No. 1 lesson this 2012 postseason has re-hammered into everyone’s heads: Don’t trust the Yankees in a playoff over (As previous playoff slates have taught us as well). In fact, about half my postseason losses, if not more, are the result of failed Yankee over wagers. But with this potentially being their last stand in 2012, I think this bet comes down to whether or not New York goes down without a whimper, if I could borrow a phrase from the extremely underrated Matt Vasgersian of MLB Network (And MLB The Show video games), and in my opinion, that will not be the case, even with all the distractions they endured. Even without Derek Jeter, and the late annual disappearances of Alex Rodriguez and now Nick Swisher, this is still a talented club capable of putting runs on the board. Here’s why it can happen: Typically, when you’re potentially in your final game, you take more of a patient approach, giving each more valuable to each at-bat. When you apply this approach to a guy like Max Scherzer, who has had various episodes of wildness in which he let nerves get to him, there is a good chance for success. This is especially crucial after the Yankees drew ZERO walks against Justin Verlander last night, and as long as they initiate a patient strategy against Scherzer, who has a career 1.48 WHIP against his opponent tonight, there is a chance they can get to him, and when that happens, things begin to snowball for someone like the Detroit right-hander. There’s a reason they achieved the best record in the American League this year; they’ll begin to show more of that tonight, especially since they can’t go any lower: Unless they are embarrassingly swept. Is it possible for that to happen to a superstar team? Of course, look at the Lakers of a couple of years ago against the Mavericks. But this is the Yankees, one of the proudest organizations in the world with so, so much talent. They’ll find a way.

And then there is the always-impressive Tigers’ offense, who have done a nice job in this series, but now they get the task of facing one of the best aces in the league, CC Sabathia. For each of his playoff starts, I like to refer to the left-hander as one of the few steady regular variables in postseason play because he’s just almost always very, very solid. With Detroit being significantly worse against left-handed pitching (Although not particularly bad; just relatively worse considering they were the best team in baseball this year against right-handers), there’s a good chance Sabathia steps up once again and does his thing. Even if that’s the case, with how relaxed and in rhythm Detroit’s offense has been for the majority of this series, they’re easily capable of scratching across at least a few runs, and with the line being as low as 7, that’s all we may need because we’re going to need a considerably contribution from the Yankee lineup anyway. Furthermore, Sabathia hasn’t been his specifically dominant self against these Tigers over the past three seasons (Mid-4’s ERA in almost ten starts), leaving the door open for there to be some runs scored by both sides. In any case, this is going to be a SMALL bet no matter what because it’s a Yankee playoff game, or in other words, a weakness of mine. We’ll see how it plays out.



**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 
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Final amount is only the minimum:Sabathia vs Scherzer OVER 7 - $20 for $21It's a Yankee playoff game without Ivan Nova so of course I'm going to keep it low. Let's see if this team has any heart, which is doubtful
 
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Adding another $10 for $10 on the over... The longer this delay carries on, the better it is for this specific contest. Hitters, especially perhaps the Yankee lineup, feel more settled in and relaxed since the game was already supposed to start, while guys like Sabathia and Scherzer potentially may not be as effective because normally, they would get out to terrific starts partly from being so amped and emotionally-invested into it... with a lengthy delay, you lose that edge and potentially may more so go through the motions, which bodes well for talented hitters who capitalize on mistakes. This could especially be true for guys like Scherzer who aren't as familiar with high-profile big-game settings
 
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Well ironically, I said I liked the Cain vs Lohse UNDER and didn't take it because of the weather, due to my extremely frustrating recent history of losing unders solely as a result of a rain delay (Jeremy Hefner vs Eric Stults under from May/June; CJ Wilson vs Yu Darvish from around the same time in Wilson's return to Texas; you might remember he started the very next day after not going back out there... interestingly, Zack Greinke was involved in a similar incredibly rare scenario only weeks later... love reminiscing random moments from the past season. The regular season is still VERY much alive to me, won't let it go), and of course, that game ends up finishing with the under still intact.

And of course, the game I do take, which did NOT have any significant warnings of rain in the forecast (Much like that Hefner vs Stults game in which no rain was in the forecast), ends up being postponed rather quickly. That's a shame, too, because like I said, I felt much better about the over after a delay like that because of the two pitchers involved and the situation we were dealing with. In fact, because of that, that was probably the best chance we'd have for ANY Yankee over in the postseason... if you've noticed, the only two Yankee overs in the postseason thus far have been because of truly fluke occurrences in the 9th inning (Game 1 in the ALDS when they scored 5 or so runs in the 9th of a 2-2 game; Game 1 of the ALCS due to the fluke 4-0 comeback off Valverde in the 9th against Valverde).

Thus, they really should have been involved in, really, eight consecutive unders throughout their entire 2012 postseason run up to this point... maybe the Law of Averages interjects tomorrow? About to begin my nightly MLB Over/Under routine right now.

Just another strange day in my bizarre daily career of MLB Over/Unders.

P.S. I wonder what Bud Norris is doing right now. Can't wait for the day that I have the opportunity to bet on a postseason over/under with him as a starting pitcher (Or Game 1 ace?) in it.
 

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>>Just another strange day in my bizarre daily career of MLB Over/Unders. <<

I think you're great! I have to tell you something and I've learned this the very hard way over a long time and lots of losses (I'm rather slow.) This, like anything worth doing, is AN ABSOLUTE BATTLE and you must prepare yourself mentally for the battle. I'm not even speaking in hyperbole. THIS CAN be very lucrative and I've done it and I've seen it. IT IS a battle of will, though. CRAZY things happen through all of this and one must be ready to be self-controlled and persevere.

Without doubt, nothing is easy in this, but when you do it right, it is about as sweet as it gets! There is no easy in this, so I want you to get your armor on and get your mind ready for the fight.

WOOT!!!!

tulsa
 
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you must prepare yourself mentally for the battle.

Thank you for the positive feedback, Tulsa, as always. I like talking with you.

But believe me, there probably wasn't another person on these forums this year - in any sport - that used the word "mental" more than I did :)

It is just so, so incredibly true. I mean, I'm younger than just about everyone here, being 26, but I've said it about a thousand times this year: Betting is ALL mental. Period. I could elaborate on this with another several hundred words but I'm typing this from my iPhone.

If someone doesn't understand that betting has everything to do with the power of the human mind and battling and hanging in there (And also why, typically, people generally perform better when they're doing this endeavor in a positive mindset/good mood... It's honestly 100-percent truth. You also perform better when you're enthusiastic with it, rather than going through the motions), then said person has no business being in gambling to begin with.

Cant stress it enough: Mindset and Mentality is EVERYTHING
 
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Good question, timski.

I am NOT taking the Sabathia vs Scherzer over/under today. I liked the over last night, but since the game was postponed today, that's just a variable I do not want to deal with, given the two pitchers involved and the unique scenario that they are involved in (Hell, seemingly any scenario involving the Yankees is unique).

That, and the fact that I had a pretty good beat on the other game tonight, Lincecum vs Wainwright, means I'm just laying off of today's possible final Yankees/Tigers matchup. Any time I get to back off of a Yankee game, especially in the playoffs, is a good thing so I'll take that.

Today's thread, including my pick on the Lincecum vs Wainwright over/under, will be posted within an hour or two so make sure you check back for that. But again, NO ACTION on today's Sabathia vs Scherzer contest
 

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