2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 7-9, -$179
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, fellas. Unique situation yesterday was my one game was rained out, and as I wrote in that thread earlier, I would NOT be sticking with that Sabathia vs Scherzer bet, as the postponement of the game is a HUGE variable that could change mindsets of multiple players, or anything for that matter. Thus, it became a game to avoid, which I’ll gladly concur with if it means skipping over a Yankee playoff game, which is responsible for more than half my playoff losses this year (Not to mention having a relatively poor winning percentage with them during the regular season in games NOT started by Ivan Nova, who, as you might remember, I pretty much own from a gambling perspective). Anyway, let’s see where I’m heading with the other series on this Thursday evening…
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - Price TBD
Tim Lincecum vs Adam Wainwright
OVER 7
Before I proceed with the analysis of this bet, let me caution you, especially newer readers of mine, that Tim Lincecum is absolutely one of my weaker pitchers in over/unders. In fact, even in my magical year of 2011, I was an uninspiring 2-4-1 with him, and when I do my full stat breakdown for the 2012 season after these playoffs conclude, I’m sure my record with him this year will be around the same lowly mark (One Lincecum loss I remember off the top of my head was a Saturday night affair against one of my own top five favorite pitchers who I RARELY lost with this year, Lucas Harrell… I’m so off with Lincecum that he cost me a rare loss with one of my own sleepers that I was 100-percent right on this year. That should speak volumes)
That being said, there’s still a lot of potential here involving Lincecum and a possible over in this postseason setting. First off, we all know about The Freak’s steep decline this year, which was probably one of the bigger discrepancies in baseball history concerning a higher-profile pitcher. In fact, his ERA almost DOUBLED (2.74 to 5.18) this year compared to 2011, which is just extremely, extremely rare. I mean, that’s incredibly significant, and over a large sample size like a full season, that is very indicative of where a pitcher is at that very point in time. In other words, despite his surprising dominance out of the bullpen in this postseason (8.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks… impressive), his season numbers as a whole (Although he was better in the second half) lead me to believe that his evolution throughout the season is more so a product of what we will from him over the near-future, let alone in his assignment for tonight. That sentiment could especially ring true for a guy that is just so very mentally-oriented and unique (Hence why Lincecum is widely known as one of the more distinct “characters” and personalities in sports), and even while he’s been mowing down hitters out of the ‘pen, that shouldn’t really have much to do with his outlook for tonight, as starting pitching requires, obviously, a much, much different mindset, one of which that I feel Lincecum won’t be able to re-familiarize with right away. Yes, he had a very successful postseason in 2010, but given how awful his season went this year, and the fact that he has to change his mindset after coming out of the bullpen, it just might add up to too much for him, which could lead to him surrendering at least a couple of runs.
Adam Wainwright, meanwhile, is in quite a unique situation himself. I was shocked to see him get lit up the way he did in that win-or-go-home Game 5 matchup with the Nationals last Friday night - absolutely shocked given his mentality entering that start of wanting to pitch that game more than anything - but you know who was most surprised of all? Adam Wainwright. That said, as he enters this outing tonight, there is no question that his mindset will be far from what it normally is. Can that play into our advantage? Absolutely. But it can also morph into a dis-advantage, as Wainwright is a prideful pitcher who acknowledged extreme disappointment with letting his teammates down in his last start, and as a result, you know he will be extra motivated to atone for it. At the same time, he might be pressing a little bit more than ever, as the sting of last week’s awful performance is definitely still very much in the front of his mind, considering how much disappointment he expressed after that game and even through pre-game discussions. Luckily for Wainwright, this specific start will be in the setting where he has always done his best work - home at Busch Stadium - but even so, as long as he gives up a couple of runs and it is completely dominating, which will be difficult given his unstable mindset, we’ll be in good shape. He had success against the Giants this season, especially in his one outing at home against the club, but everything goes out the window after what he went through six days ago. We only need a couple or so runs, as that’s probably the most attractive item about this game: the lower-than-expected line. I thought for sure this game would be set at 7.5, but once I saw it at 7, I was sold. Hopefully that investment leads us to an over victory tonight.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, fellas. Unique situation yesterday was my one game was rained out, and as I wrote in that thread earlier, I would NOT be sticking with that Sabathia vs Scherzer bet, as the postponement of the game is a HUGE variable that could change mindsets of multiple players, or anything for that matter. Thus, it became a game to avoid, which I’ll gladly concur with if it means skipping over a Yankee playoff game, which is responsible for more than half my playoff losses this year (Not to mention having a relatively poor winning percentage with them during the regular season in games NOT started by Ivan Nova, who, as you might remember, I pretty much own from a gambling perspective). Anyway, let’s see where I’m heading with the other series on this Thursday evening…
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - Price TBD
Tim Lincecum vs Adam Wainwright
OVER 7
Before I proceed with the analysis of this bet, let me caution you, especially newer readers of mine, that Tim Lincecum is absolutely one of my weaker pitchers in over/unders. In fact, even in my magical year of 2011, I was an uninspiring 2-4-1 with him, and when I do my full stat breakdown for the 2012 season after these playoffs conclude, I’m sure my record with him this year will be around the same lowly mark (One Lincecum loss I remember off the top of my head was a Saturday night affair against one of my own top five favorite pitchers who I RARELY lost with this year, Lucas Harrell… I’m so off with Lincecum that he cost me a rare loss with one of my own sleepers that I was 100-percent right on this year. That should speak volumes)
That being said, there’s still a lot of potential here involving Lincecum and a possible over in this postseason setting. First off, we all know about The Freak’s steep decline this year, which was probably one of the bigger discrepancies in baseball history concerning a higher-profile pitcher. In fact, his ERA almost DOUBLED (2.74 to 5.18) this year compared to 2011, which is just extremely, extremely rare. I mean, that’s incredibly significant, and over a large sample size like a full season, that is very indicative of where a pitcher is at that very point in time. In other words, despite his surprising dominance out of the bullpen in this postseason (8.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks… impressive), his season numbers as a whole (Although he was better in the second half) lead me to believe that his evolution throughout the season is more so a product of what we will from him over the near-future, let alone in his assignment for tonight. That sentiment could especially ring true for a guy that is just so very mentally-oriented and unique (Hence why Lincecum is widely known as one of the more distinct “characters” and personalities in sports), and even while he’s been mowing down hitters out of the ‘pen, that shouldn’t really have much to do with his outlook for tonight, as starting pitching requires, obviously, a much, much different mindset, one of which that I feel Lincecum won’t be able to re-familiarize with right away. Yes, he had a very successful postseason in 2010, but given how awful his season went this year, and the fact that he has to change his mindset after coming out of the bullpen, it just might add up to too much for him, which could lead to him surrendering at least a couple of runs.
Adam Wainwright, meanwhile, is in quite a unique situation himself. I was shocked to see him get lit up the way he did in that win-or-go-home Game 5 matchup with the Nationals last Friday night - absolutely shocked given his mentality entering that start of wanting to pitch that game more than anything - but you know who was most surprised of all? Adam Wainwright. That said, as he enters this outing tonight, there is no question that his mindset will be far from what it normally is. Can that play into our advantage? Absolutely. But it can also morph into a dis-advantage, as Wainwright is a prideful pitcher who acknowledged extreme disappointment with letting his teammates down in his last start, and as a result, you know he will be extra motivated to atone for it. At the same time, he might be pressing a little bit more than ever, as the sting of last week’s awful performance is definitely still very much in the front of his mind, considering how much disappointment he expressed after that game and even through pre-game discussions. Luckily for Wainwright, this specific start will be in the setting where he has always done his best work - home at Busch Stadium - but even so, as long as he gives up a couple of runs and it is completely dominating, which will be difficult given his unstable mindset, we’ll be in good shape. He had success against the Giants this season, especially in his one outing at home against the club, but everything goes out the window after what he went through six days ago. We only need a couple or so runs, as that’s probably the most attractive item about this game: the lower-than-expected line. I thought for sure this game would be set at 7.5, but once I saw it at 7, I was sold. Hopefully that investment leads us to an over victory tonight.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
