2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 8-9, -$149
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Very satisfying win yesterday, as it came as a result of a pitcher who I’m usually not very good with, that of course being Tim Lincecum. It also continued my recent winning ways, which is always key in the tough postseason, especially when potentially heading into the World Series, which you absolutely want to have the most confidence for since that’s it. After that, baseball is over for several months, so being successful in the World Series is very critical, especially when you’ve been doing this literally every single day for almost 7 months now. Don’t want to depart from the 2012 season with a bad taste in my mouth, so let’s see if I can keep rolling, continuing on with this potential series-clinching matchup on this Friday night…
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - $39 for $35
Barry Zito vs Lance Lynn
OVER 7.5
I am quite surprised this one didn’t stay at 8. Actually, I’m very surprised. If this were a regular season matchup, given the two pitchers involved and their track records in 2012, this game absolutely would have stuck at 8 in a park like St. Louis. No question. But being in a postseason setting, Vegas apparently figures that pitching will shine in this National League showcase - a potential series-ender - despite each pitcher’s shortcomings in their most recent playoff starts. Let’s start with Barry Zito, who, for the most part, has not lived up at all to his big contract with the Giants, which has made him somewhat of a goat during his San Francisco tenure, and while he did end the regular season strong (4-0 in five September starts with a 3.03 ERA), it apparently did not translate in the playoffs, as he couldn’t even get out of the third inning of his lone start against the Reds, which came on the road. That last part is important note, as this start for him is also coming on the road, where he’s been less effective this year. I’d consider Zito more so of a mentally-oriented pitcher than most other NL starters, which means the writing is pretty much on the wall with him. Usually, when pressed into a clutch situation, he just doesn’t deliver, as his first playoff start showed us, and with his team’s fading slim hopes relying completely on him from the pitching side of things, you have to believe that mindset will get to him in one way or another, allowing the mostly hot Cardinal bats to capitalize and take advantage. We don’t even need a complete thrashing with the line as low as it is.
Opposing the Giants’ southpaw is the very interesting Lance Lynn, who deserves nothing but a tip of the cap for his fabulous work this year. I’ve always kind of liked him, and thought he could become a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter, but not the type that wins 18 games, just as he did this year. The thing to admire about him more is the fact that he was wrongfully relegated to the bullpen (At one point, Joe Kelly was starting over him! It’s funny to think how some of these managers get to a World Series with completely obvious bonehead decisions such as that one; Lynn was an all-star this year for a reason!), but took it in stride, and luckily for him, fate worked out anyway, as here he is set to make his second postseason start, except this time, he’s hoping it works out much better than the first, when the Giants roughed him up on Sunday in a Game 1 victory. If you’re the Giants right now, and that still remains your only victory in this series, you at least have to be feeling some confidence offensively, since they did pound him for five hits and four runs in less than four innings of work, so we have that going for us. From Lynn’s perspective, I would guess he might be shaky on the mental side heading into this start after that disastrous Game 1 outing, but he was considerably better home at Busch Stadium this year, and with the Cardinals possessing a 3-1 series lead, while looking incredibly good in the process, it’s also possible that he is more relaxed and not really feeling the pressure he was sensing in Game 1, when he got this big series started. You could easily argue that it has been a cool, relaxed mindset for Lynn all year that helped spark his wildly successful season, since he had such little expectations while being at the bottom of the pitching staff, and if it is that same mindset he carries tonight, he should be much better this time around. However, I’m just going to lean on the fact that the Giants have been hitting relatively fine this series, and against the only guy they’ve beaten so far in this NLCS, they should have confidence as they look to keep their season alive in this potential elimination game. Remember, the line is lower than expected, at least for me (You’re crazy if you think these two pitchers, especially with how their starts have gone in this postseason, should command a line of 7.5), so we only need not much more than minimal damage done by the offenses. That is absolutely a bet worth taking, and one I feel pretty good about.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Very satisfying win yesterday, as it came as a result of a pitcher who I’m usually not very good with, that of course being Tim Lincecum. It also continued my recent winning ways, which is always key in the tough postseason, especially when potentially heading into the World Series, which you absolutely want to have the most confidence for since that’s it. After that, baseball is over for several months, so being successful in the World Series is very critical, especially when you’ve been doing this literally every single day for almost 7 months now. Don’t want to depart from the 2012 season with a bad taste in my mouth, so let’s see if I can keep rolling, continuing on with this potential series-clinching matchup on this Friday night…
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - $39 for $35
Barry Zito vs Lance Lynn
OVER 7.5
I am quite surprised this one didn’t stay at 8. Actually, I’m very surprised. If this were a regular season matchup, given the two pitchers involved and their track records in 2012, this game absolutely would have stuck at 8 in a park like St. Louis. No question. But being in a postseason setting, Vegas apparently figures that pitching will shine in this National League showcase - a potential series-ender - despite each pitcher’s shortcomings in their most recent playoff starts. Let’s start with Barry Zito, who, for the most part, has not lived up at all to his big contract with the Giants, which has made him somewhat of a goat during his San Francisco tenure, and while he did end the regular season strong (4-0 in five September starts with a 3.03 ERA), it apparently did not translate in the playoffs, as he couldn’t even get out of the third inning of his lone start against the Reds, which came on the road. That last part is important note, as this start for him is also coming on the road, where he’s been less effective this year. I’d consider Zito more so of a mentally-oriented pitcher than most other NL starters, which means the writing is pretty much on the wall with him. Usually, when pressed into a clutch situation, he just doesn’t deliver, as his first playoff start showed us, and with his team’s fading slim hopes relying completely on him from the pitching side of things, you have to believe that mindset will get to him in one way or another, allowing the mostly hot Cardinal bats to capitalize and take advantage. We don’t even need a complete thrashing with the line as low as it is.
Opposing the Giants’ southpaw is the very interesting Lance Lynn, who deserves nothing but a tip of the cap for his fabulous work this year. I’ve always kind of liked him, and thought he could become a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter, but not the type that wins 18 games, just as he did this year. The thing to admire about him more is the fact that he was wrongfully relegated to the bullpen (At one point, Joe Kelly was starting over him! It’s funny to think how some of these managers get to a World Series with completely obvious bonehead decisions such as that one; Lynn was an all-star this year for a reason!), but took it in stride, and luckily for him, fate worked out anyway, as here he is set to make his second postseason start, except this time, he’s hoping it works out much better than the first, when the Giants roughed him up on Sunday in a Game 1 victory. If you’re the Giants right now, and that still remains your only victory in this series, you at least have to be feeling some confidence offensively, since they did pound him for five hits and four runs in less than four innings of work, so we have that going for us. From Lynn’s perspective, I would guess he might be shaky on the mental side heading into this start after that disastrous Game 1 outing, but he was considerably better home at Busch Stadium this year, and with the Cardinals possessing a 3-1 series lead, while looking incredibly good in the process, it’s also possible that he is more relaxed and not really feeling the pressure he was sensing in Game 1, when he got this big series started. You could easily argue that it has been a cool, relaxed mindset for Lynn all year that helped spark his wildly successful season, since he had such little expectations while being at the bottom of the pitching staff, and if it is that same mindset he carries tonight, he should be much better this time around. However, I’m just going to lean on the fact that the Giants have been hitting relatively fine this series, and against the only guy they’ve beaten so far in this NLCS, they should have confidence as they look to keep their season alive in this potential elimination game. Remember, the line is lower than expected, at least for me (You’re crazy if you think these two pitchers, especially with how their starts have gone in this postseason, should command a line of 7.5), so we only need not much more than minimal damage done by the offenses. That is absolutely a bet worth taking, and one I feel pretty good about.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
