The Cat's MLB Playoff Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - October 21, 2012 - YTD: 8-10 (2012 Season: 361-329-47; 108-82-20, 57% from Aug 2-on)

2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 8-10, -$188
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Being Sunday, you guys know the drill. With my mind mostly focused on football, and with good reason considering my record in NFL betting is a sparkling 53-30-4 thus far this season, Sundays are typically a laid-back kind of day for The Cat in terms of baseball, even after having a rare day off with no baseball action yesterday. Let's look at the one game on the slate, albeit briefly...


Chris Carpenter vs Ryan Vogelsong UNDER 6.5 (Waiting for it go up to 7) - Price TBD
This appears to be one of those pitching matchups that need not be over-analyzed. Let's start with the somewhat surprising Ryan Vogelsong, who has just been absolutely magnificent this postseason. I've already written about him in great detail in each of the past two starts when I had the under for both, but I'll repeat it again, although in a nutshell: This guy overcame one of his roughest patches of his career - certainly his toughest one since coming back at the beginning of 2011 - at the end of August/early September and has looked quite fabulous ever since. When a guy like Vogelsong is rolling with confidence again, especially with how effective he's been so far this postseason and the appreciation he's shown for overcoming said slump, it's a good bet to rely on him once more, especially with his team being within full grasp of evening this NLCS up. Chris Carpenter is certainly reliable as well, as he's looked good for the most part ever since his improbably comeback from injury. Unfortunately, two rare errors by the normally-sure-handed Cardinals' defense did him in last time (5 runs, only 2 of which were earned), which also ruined the under. This time around, with the importance of this potential series-clincher, we should, more likely than not, see the battle-tested veteran ace come through with a quality start. Hopefully the line for this game goes up to 7 like it should.



**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**

Cat...my local is giving 7.5?!? Would I be an idiot not to pound the under?

my local has the same thing at 7.5. i haven't seen it that high anywhere. was thinking the same thing about hitting this one hard. just hoping Carp brings his good stuff tonight and can shut down the Giant bats and give the birds on the bat a happy flight back home.

Chong said:

my local has the same thing at 7.5. i haven't seen it that high anywhere. was thinking the same thing about hitting this one hard. just hoping Carp brings his good stuff tonight and can shut down the Giant bats and give the birds on the bat a happy flight back home.

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agreed on all fronts....as I am a STL born dude. yeah 7.5 is just too high for this game...I guess our locals are inflating it expecting a high influx of over bettors? I know most of his bettors love betting overs and hate taking unders (standard)

its 7now cats!!!!!strong play?

bwhitey14 said:

agreed on all fronts....as I am a STL born dude. yeah 7.5 is just too high for this game...I guess our locals are inflating it expecting a high influx of over bettors? I know most of his bettors love betting overs and hate taking unders (standard)

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Here's to our bulldog hopefully having a repeat of last years game in Philly to close it out. Let's get this!! Bol whitey!!

Chong said:

Here's to our bulldog hopefully having a repeat of last years game in Philly to close it out. Let's get this!! Bol whitey!!

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ya ill take carp any clincher night! gl to us and you as well!

Not a strong play at all. Final amount:

Carpenter vs Vogelsong UNDER 7 - $23 for $20

I went huge on the under 7.5 I was offered...and boy did it look done and done early...but it sadly has a chance now. (I hate rooting against my team to score in the NLCS but we won't win regardless)

Okay, a push. Congrats to those of you who [somehow] had under 7.5, I'm glad you won because it really shouldn't have been close... yes, there were "runs" early, and I say "runs" because the majority of them were unearned. I'm not complaining or anything with the final result at all, I'm thankful I gained a push after how the early goings of this game went down, but when you have the over of a bet and HAVE to rely on unpredictable unearned runs (Especially from a very good fielding team), I mean, I'm from the school of thought where such runs are considered lucky. Period. Of course it happens, and that's perfectly fine, but from an analytical perspective... you can't predict bad fielding. You just can't. Just saying, not complaining at all, as like I said, I'm perfectly satisfied with a push after how the game got started. Interestingly, it felt like deja vu with the first Ryan Vogelsong/Chris Carpenter matchup in Game 1 (Which ended 7-1), except that one required an umpire's blown call, aside from early errors, for the over to hit and cost me my under.

In any case... Game 7. Wow, here we go again with the Cardinals making everything have to be dramatic. Should be interesting, as always