exbookie wants to help the players week 8

ACE-ACE · Oct 23, 2012

Investment plays 4-6 -$5025.00
Action plays 14-18 -$3197.00
Total 18-24 -$8222.00
bankroll $75,000.00
now $66,778.00
411 system now 5-4

I still look at it as 8 units down

A recurring theory concerns teams that play on Monday night. The theory is, since Monday night teams have one less day of rest, they figure to perform worse than normal in their next game. This theory pops up whenever Monday night teams do suffer losing streaks the following week. Touts will cite a dozen or two examples (could be sequential games, or a particular conference, etc.) then recommend betting accordingly.
As with so many cursory studies, this one appears it might make sense - but on closer study it does not fly. A study of 494 consecutive observations reported by USA TODAY shows that 270 Monday night teams won their next game, 220 lost their next game and 4 ties their next game.

*Of the 244 winning teams on Monday night, 139 covered in their next game, 102 failed and 3 tied.

*Of the 220 losing teams, 126 covered in their next game, 117 failed and 1 tied.

*Of the 6 tying teams on Monday, 5 covered in their next game and 1 failed to cover.

That's a winning rate of 55 percent. However, before you decide Monday night teams do better than normal the following week, remember, that teams scheduled to play on Mondays are better teams in the league. A 55 percent winning rate should come as no surprise when dealing with the better teams in the league.

STATS VS ATS

HOME 47
AWAY 57

DOGS 62
FAV 42................ONLY THING OF 3 YEARS OUT OF THE LAST 15 THAT THE DOGS RULE...THIS WILL CHANGE SOON

OVER 53
UNDER 51

POINTS THAT MATTER 18 GAMES OUT OF 104 17%......UNLESS YOU PLAYED ONE OF THOSE 17% GAMES....IT DONT MATTER BET THE TEAM THAT GOING TO WIN

NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM

OVER 51.5 5-3
UNDER 37.5 2-0

TWO THIS WEEK....CK IT

MORE TO COME

ACE

MREAST · Oct 23, 2012

teams off a Monday Night Football win of 20 or more points are 59-33-2 ATS since 1989 covering 64.7% of all games. The average line is -4.7

Favorites off a Monday Night Football win of 20 or more points are 48-25-2 ATS covering 65.8%

Favorites off a 20 or more point win that won on the road on Monday Night are 25-9-2 ATS 73.5%

hang in there it is a long season, good luck the rest of the way!

MREAST · Oct 23, 2012

correction

I disagree with this statement:

DOGS 62
FAV 42................ONLY THING OF 3 YEARS OUT OF THE LAST 15 THAT THE DOGS RULE...THIS WILL CHANGE SOON

NFL FAVORITES ATS LAST 15 YEARS:

2012 39-63-1
2011 124-128-9
2010 128-131-5
2009 128-132-3
2008 125-132-3
2007 131-121-12
2006 115-143-6
2005 148-108-10
2004 123-130-7
2003 133-125-7
2002 113-143-4
2001 118-129-8
2000 114-125-3
1999 106-122-15
1998 119-106-13
-----------------------

15 yr summary favorites are -74 games below .500

But...with that said

I do expect the results going forward to change, but also keeping in mind their have been some anomolous years in the NFL, and change doesn't mean winning favorites, they could finish .500 from here on out, so change does not mean favorites are going to necessarily kill it.

MotorCityMadman · Oct 23, 2012

Ace which numbers are right yours or MrEast ?

busmu · Oct 23, 2012

NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM

OVER 51.5 5-3
UNDER 37.5 2-0

Ace, when would you place your best for the over/under system? Is it better to play the over in the beginning of the week, and then play the under on Sunday?

Thanks

ACE-ACE · Oct 24, 2012

MREAST said:
I disagree with this statement:

DOGS 62
FAV 42................ONLY THING OF 3 YEARS OUT OF THE LAST 15 THAT THE DOGS RULE...THIS WILL CHANGE SOON

NFL FAVORITES ATS LAST 15 YEARS:

2012 39-63-1
2011 124-128-9
2010 128-131-5
2009 128-132-3
2008 125-132-3
2007 131-121-12
2006 115-143-6
2005 148-108-10
2004 123-130-7
2003 133-125-7
2002 113-143-4
2001 118-129-8
2000 114-125-3
1999 106-122-15
1998 119-106-13
-----------------------

15 yr summary favorites are -74 games below .500

But...with that said

I do expect the results going forward to change, but also keeping in mind their have been some anomolous years in the NFL, and change doesn't mean winning favorites, they could finish .500 from here on out, so change does not mean favorites are going to necessarily kill it.

Its not 3 years base on your 15 years its only 2 years...2002 113-143 56% dogs and 2006 115-143 55%...base on % only this year is the worst!!! at 59.6 %.... guess I should have said "%"....most year is close to 50-50...beside 2005 were the favorites rule!!!!

ACE-ACE · Oct 24, 2012

busmu said:
NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM

OVER 51.5 5-3
UNDER 37.5 2-0

Ace, when would you place your best for the over/under system? Is it better to play the over in the beginning of the week, and then play the under on Sunday?

Thanks

bets places early....only $100 on each

ACE-ACE · Oct 24, 2012

Top NFL Public Bets

#1

225

San Diego Chargers

86%

#2

239

New York Giants

85%

#3

219

New England Patriots

78%

#4

235

Washington Redskins

75%

#5

232

New York Jets

72%

#6

241

New Orleans Saints

70%

#7

243

San Francisco 49ers

70%

#8

227

Atlanta Falcons

69%

#9

237

Oakland Raiders

65%

#10

221

Indianapolis Colts

59%

TWO OF MY PLAYS THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE TOP 10...I FEEL THOS TWO ARE THE BEST ONES THIS WEEK...ALL MY OTHER PICKS ARE NOT FROM THIS LIST

ACE-ACE · Oct 24, 2012

Motor City Madman said:
Ace which numbers are right yours or MrEast ?

HE GOT 39-63-1
I got 42- 62.....its all base on where the line is at what part of the week...so I would say we are both right

MREAST · Oct 24, 2012

ACE-ACE said:
HE GOT 39-63-1
I got 42- 62.....its all base on where the line is at what part of the week...so I would say we are both right

I agree Ace, it is just a variance in the line

MotorCityMadman · Oct 24, 2012

ACE-ACE said:
HE GOT 39-63-1
I got 42- 62.....its all base on where the line is at what part of the week...so I would say we are both right

Fair enough answer. Maybe the best way would be to take the opening line. That way you would get an accurate number and everyone should come up with the same number. Anything other then the opening number is taking into account the amount of money that is bet.

MREAST · Oct 24, 2012

Motor City Madman said:
Fair enough answer. Maybe the best way would be to take the opening line. That way you would get an accurate number and everyone should come up with the same number. Anything other then the opening number is taking into account the amount of money that is bet.

I understand your take Motor City, but there would be the same issues if you considered the opening line, as books vary much the same as they do on the closing line. What it all really points to, is making sure you have several outs, so you can get the best number, as you can see using this case as an example it could turn 62-42 into 63-39 3 more winners and 1 less loser. That is 4% of 100 games so think of this, as in another situation. If you could alter the impact of every 100 games by having more choices, a 52% handicapper is now a 56% handicapper!

ACE-ACE · Oct 24, 2012

MREAST said:
I understand your take Motor City, but there would be the same issues if you considered the opening line, as books vary much the same as they do on the closing line. What it all really points to, is making sure you have several outs, so you can get the best number, as you can see using this case as an example it could turn 62-42 into 63-39 3 more winners and 1 less loser. That is 4% of 100 games so think of this, as in another situation. If you could alter the impact of every 100 games by having more choices, a 52% handicapper is now a 56% handicapper!

you are a stat guy....do you do excel sheets for your stats?

MotorCityMadman · Oct 24, 2012

MREAST said:
I understand your take Motor City, but there would be the same issues if you considered the opening line, as books vary much the same as they do on the closing line. What it all really points to, is making sure you have several outs, so you can get the best number, as you can see using this case as an example it could turn 62-42 into 63-39 3 more winners and 1 less loser. That is 4% of 100 games so think of this, as in another situation. If you could alter the impact of every 100 games by having more choices, a 52% handicapper is now a 56% handicapper!

Back in the day the Star Dust was the first to put out the line. They were the standard. Everyone else took their lead. Not basing your results on one opening line skews them whatever way you want them to fall. You're results are a dependent variable on how the early money goes wheter it is the favorite or the dog. Only one number can be used or the results are not true.

MREAST · Oct 25, 2012

none

ACE-ACE said:
you are a stat guy....do you do excel sheets for your stats?

yes, I have a ton of them, and use what I call "vig beaters" as a launching point for given situations. A vig beater uncovers line bias, meaning situations as an example that are a raw 610-519 ATS which is 54% and 1 condition based. By vig beater I mean any given 1 condition situation that beats the juice 52.38%. Those are statistical indicators that pass a log liklihood test for profitability on their own, and null the hypothesis of a fair bet.

I've learned where all the biases are in a given sport and they differ greatly. The NFL is a counter-intuitive league, while college football is momentum driven, so the keys are different.

So what i do is zero in on the indicators, and then do the capping on stats, so I guess I am a hybrid capper, using technical, and fundemental capping to arrive at a valued position on a given game.

By the way, I think with 90% certainty, from your posting of public teams this week, and the 2 you claim to be on, I know the teams. I would never even post my educated guess here, for obvious reasons, but if you'd like I will e-mail them to you just to see, you don't even have to tell me if I'm right or wrong that will be known soon enough, wish you the best for this week!

MREAST · Oct 25, 2012

I guess I would be remiss if I stated something and then didn't expand on what I am talking about, sine this is a "help" thread, which I am all about and give kudos to you for taking the time and effort to do so, here is what I mean.

One indicator in the NFL is that teams off a road loss, and playing on the road again are very biased bets!

One reason is most cappers have the taste in their mouth of what happenned most recently (ie. last week). So many view this team that lost on the road the week before, and on the road again are guided by the following logic:

1) probably 25% of all players had action on the team that lost on the road, and won't touch them this week, in fact may play against them because they have the "bad taste" and in their minds they suck, and half of them will see this team on the road again, and play against them

2) Those remaining 75% will look and see this team just got beat on the road, and now on the road again, and another 25% of that group will likjely play against them

3) odssmakers know public tendencies and will "tax" the line on the favorite players and I'll show proof that the above actors (amongst others) imply that to be true.

******************************************************************************************************************************************

here is the situation I have described above.

Play on a road team off a road loss, pretty basic and simple:

here are the results since 2003:

SU:	168-205-0 (-2.21, 45.0%)
ATS:	216-151-6 (1.62, 58.9%)	avg line: 3.8
O/U:	187-179-7 (0.62, 51.1%)	avg total: 42.0

and they are 13-3 ATS this year

This week the play on teams blindly would be:

SEA
JX
WASH

here is what has happened in public perception:

Last week Seattle was liked by 53% of the public this week 43%

Last week Jax was liked by 40% this week 37% and the only reason it hasn't changed much is huge line, bettors are attracted by big numbers

last week Washington was liked by 54% of the public have risen to 65% this week (that is because Washington has become a public team with RG# and I discount those numbers for thsat reason)

So basically I take "key variables" (ie. road after road loss) and show the power. What I don't do however is just play those 3 games blindly, because there is more to capping than that, and what has happened previously mutates into the future, and sports wagering is like the aids virus, it keeps mutating, and you have to stay afloat by understanding how,why, and when it does. Hope that helps clarify.

ACE-ACE · Oct 25, 2012

now that My plays are in here is week 9 lines

..................line wk1.............now................this way you can see linemovement over 8 weeks
SD..................-6..................-8.5
DEN ................PK.................-2.5
GB...................-13................-10
MIA..................-2..................-2.5
BAL .................-6..................-3
HOU.................-7.................-10
WAS .................-1.................-3.5
DET...................-5.................XX
CHI...................-1.................-3.5
SEA...................-6...................-3
OAK...................-6..................-3
NYG ..................-3..................-3.5
ATL...................-3....................-3.5
NO.....................-3.....................-2

ENJOY...

ACE

ACE-ACE · Oct 25, 2012

will not be home to posted my plays tonight...so I will posted them a hour before kick off

I feel TB will win Outright

$600.00 -105 Take #103 Tampa Bay (+6.5) over Minnesota (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 25)
I think that this is going to be a low scoring affair. Minnesota could win this game but I don't see them winning it by a blowout. The Vikings gained 150 less yards than Arizona last week and still covered the spread. They will not be able to do that against the Bucs. Tampa Bay's offense is starting to click. They have scored 28 and 38 points in their last two games. Tampa Bay has won five straight in this series and they beat the Vikings in the Metrodome by the score of 24-20 last year. I think that they can pull an upset this weekend too. And I will take the points on a team that is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

$400.00 -110 Take Minnesota 'Under' 24.0 Points (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 25)
This is a prop bet. This is available at just about all books. I am betting that the Vikings do not score over 24 points in this game. That is way too many points for a run-first offense. They have only scored more than 24 points two times this year in non-overtime games.

wiskers1 · Oct 25, 2012

good luck ace and thanks for posting

Bruins4Life · Oct 26, 2012

Up $1000 to start the week. Well done.

exbookie wants to help the players week 8

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