2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 9-10-1, -$168
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Note: As mentioned before the playoffs, I was 9-10-2 in postseason over/unders heading into last year’s World Series, where I went a sparkling 5-1-1 to finish up the 2011 postseason 14-11-3. Ironically, here I am with a 9-10-1 mark heading into this year’s World Series. Hopefully similar 2011 success proceeds, although, as mentioned repeatedly as well, I am much more of a regular season guy than a playoffs guy.
Well, here we are: The World Series. To me, this is just as big as the Super Bowl, as baseball has always been my No. 1 throughout my life (Hence how I’ve been able to write 800-1,200 word-articles literally every single day this entire 6-month-plus season), but for some reason, I’m just not feeling this Tigers/Giants matchup as I would a typical World Series encounter. I don’t know what it is. Maybe, being a lifelong Rangers fan, this is a step down for me mentally after what I went through the past two seasons with Texas, or maybe it has to do with more with the fact that this World Series matchup just seems a little anti-climactic. I mean, throughout this entire 2012 season, it really seemed more likely than not that the Tigers weren’t even going to make the postseason (Hell, they didn’t even have a better record than TWO non-playoff American League teams, that of course being the Rays and Angels), after playing second fiddle to the White Sox for five-plus months (And, at one point, to other teams in the lowly AL Central), but they got hot at the right time, while taking complete advantage of other teams’ surprising sudden slumps (White Sox, Yankees) and voila, here they are. As for the Giants, they deserve to be here. They were very steady for pretty much all of this year, even when the Dodgers jumped out of the gate and appeared poised to run away with that division, but it turned out to be San Francisco who dominated the NL West, securing the division title relatively early. They’re a nicely-balanced team and you have to tip your cap to Bruce Bochy for the job he did, given the unexpected struggles (Tim Lincecum) and injuries that they endured. That all being said, let me try to decipher Game 1 of this 2012 World Series, on this Wednesday evening…
World Series Game 1
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants - $42 for $35
Justin Verlander vs Barry Zito
OVER 6.5
It’s hard not to crack a sly grin when looking at this pitching matchup on paper. I mean, obviously that has nothing to do with Justin Verlander. He’s proven this year, once again, that he is indeed the best pitcher in the American League (Although we might be singing a different tune for David Price if the Rays were in this position; My vote for AL Cy Young still goes to Price), so him drawing this Game 1 assignment is simply just very appropriate and deserving. But opposing him… Barry Zito? Barry Zito?? Okay, I’m going to try and make this as understandable as possible because for those of you who don’t study every single game of every single day like I do, let alone extremely closely like I do, you just might not gain the genuine appreciation for an oddity such as this. Barry Zito, for most of his tenure with the Giants, has been more so a joke than anything else (Not to mention being hated and despised by the majority of Giants’ fans), considering the mega expectations he arrived with coming over from Oakland. In fact, last year, his ERA was a whopping 5.87! That’s only a year ago! I don’t know about you fellas but 2011, to me at least, still feels like yesterday (Although that admittedly might have a lot to do with the fact that I was far more successful in 2011 with this same daily Over/Under routine than I was in 2012), so it’s just still hard to believe that Barry Fucking Zito, given all the pitchers I’ve dealt with over the years on a daily basis, is in this enviable position of starting a Game 1 contest in the greatest World Championship this planet has to offer in any sport (I might be in the minority on that opinion). In any case, Zito did bounce back in 2012 with a respectable statline (15-8, 4.15 ERA), although if you look deeper into the numbers, you’d also see a not-pretty-at-all 1.39 WHIP and an ugly .263 opposing batting average (Second worst of his career). Perhaps most striking, he recorded the lowest number of strikeouts over his entire career (In a full season), punching out just 114 batters in 184.1 innings pitched. That, too, is not good. In Zito’s defense, he enjoyed a tremendous September/October of the regular season, in which he registered a 5-0 record and 3.02 ERA over six starts in that span, and that somewhat carried over into the playoffs, as despite a troubled first start in the NLDS against the Reds, he was actually phenomenal against the Cardinals last Friday, tossing almost eight shutout innings of six-hit ball, while walking just one and striking out seven. At the same time, if you really watched that game, he really wasn’t as effective as his stats may have indicated. Throwing innocent-looking 88 MPH fastballs and 75 MPH curveballs that didn’t have their usual bite to them, you’d think St. Louis would have roughed him up a bit, but luckily for Zito, he got in a groove, got some terrific fielding to bail him out of a couple of jams, and thus, he came out with an impressive win. If that’s the best Barry Zito can offer up, in which he was very hittable, then that can’t bode well for his outlook tonight, when I think he’ll more likely fall of the wagon. Detroit’s potent offense can get to him.
And then there’s Verlander. No reason to write as much about the reigning American League Cy Young, as we all know the deal: 17-8, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and, oh yeah, an incredible 239 strikeouts in 238 innings. In addition, his .217 opposing batting average looks pretty nifty as well, further emphasizing the obvious: He’s awfully tough to hit. That sentiment especially has been glaring over his past seven starts, in which he has a ridiculous 0.69 ERA. 0.69! Included in that streak are his three postseason starts, in which he has allowed only one run in each of them over 24-plus innings pitched. But… those are all under normal conditions. By that, I mean he was pitching on regular days’ rest (Except his first postseason start, which featured an extra day or two). This assignment tonight in Game 1 will be his first start in OVER A WEEK! I mean, with someone as consistent as Justin Verlander, it almost doesn’t matter what conditions he’s pitching in, but that’s still pretty significant, especially in a game where we virtually only need him to surrender more than the one run he’s been giving up in his other postseason starts. One of the key characteristics of being a successful starting pitcher at any level is being in the routine of starting every fifth day (Or fourth, if you’re in Colorado… scratch that, as nobody was successful in that routine except one of my favorite under-the-radar pitchers Tyler Chatwood. How about that? A Tyler Chatwood shout-out in a World Series article!), and Verlander is as much a machine as anybody out there in professional sports. But, when said machine is taken out of his usual cycle, well, that could lead to unexpected or unanticipated results. Like I said, with the line being at 6.5, we don’t need the Giants to rough up the great Verlander - thankfully that is not the case. As long as we get the desired crooked number off Zito and possibly the bullpen (Like a 5 or a 6 spot), then all we need is a measly two runs against the Detroit ace, which is very much possible with him out of his usual routine. Not pitching in game-time conditions, especially heading into a World Series matchup in which the pressure can’t be any bigger, can certainly effect even the best pitchers out there. Hopefully it’s enough to get to Verlander for a couple of runs, and then we’ll be in great shape. Remember, all we need is 5-3/5-2 and it goes in the books as an over victory. We’ll take it.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Note: As mentioned before the playoffs, I was 9-10-2 in postseason over/unders heading into last year’s World Series, where I went a sparkling 5-1-1 to finish up the 2011 postseason 14-11-3. Ironically, here I am with a 9-10-1 mark heading into this year’s World Series. Hopefully similar 2011 success proceeds, although, as mentioned repeatedly as well, I am much more of a regular season guy than a playoffs guy.
Well, here we are: The World Series. To me, this is just as big as the Super Bowl, as baseball has always been my No. 1 throughout my life (Hence how I’ve been able to write 800-1,200 word-articles literally every single day this entire 6-month-plus season), but for some reason, I’m just not feeling this Tigers/Giants matchup as I would a typical World Series encounter. I don’t know what it is. Maybe, being a lifelong Rangers fan, this is a step down for me mentally after what I went through the past two seasons with Texas, or maybe it has to do with more with the fact that this World Series matchup just seems a little anti-climactic. I mean, throughout this entire 2012 season, it really seemed more likely than not that the Tigers weren’t even going to make the postseason (Hell, they didn’t even have a better record than TWO non-playoff American League teams, that of course being the Rays and Angels), after playing second fiddle to the White Sox for five-plus months (And, at one point, to other teams in the lowly AL Central), but they got hot at the right time, while taking complete advantage of other teams’ surprising sudden slumps (White Sox, Yankees) and voila, here they are. As for the Giants, they deserve to be here. They were very steady for pretty much all of this year, even when the Dodgers jumped out of the gate and appeared poised to run away with that division, but it turned out to be San Francisco who dominated the NL West, securing the division title relatively early. They’re a nicely-balanced team and you have to tip your cap to Bruce Bochy for the job he did, given the unexpected struggles (Tim Lincecum) and injuries that they endured. That all being said, let me try to decipher Game 1 of this 2012 World Series, on this Wednesday evening…
World Series Game 1
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants - $42 for $35
Justin Verlander vs Barry Zito
OVER 6.5
It’s hard not to crack a sly grin when looking at this pitching matchup on paper. I mean, obviously that has nothing to do with Justin Verlander. He’s proven this year, once again, that he is indeed the best pitcher in the American League (Although we might be singing a different tune for David Price if the Rays were in this position; My vote for AL Cy Young still goes to Price), so him drawing this Game 1 assignment is simply just very appropriate and deserving. But opposing him… Barry Zito? Barry Zito?? Okay, I’m going to try and make this as understandable as possible because for those of you who don’t study every single game of every single day like I do, let alone extremely closely like I do, you just might not gain the genuine appreciation for an oddity such as this. Barry Zito, for most of his tenure with the Giants, has been more so a joke than anything else (Not to mention being hated and despised by the majority of Giants’ fans), considering the mega expectations he arrived with coming over from Oakland. In fact, last year, his ERA was a whopping 5.87! That’s only a year ago! I don’t know about you fellas but 2011, to me at least, still feels like yesterday (Although that admittedly might have a lot to do with the fact that I was far more successful in 2011 with this same daily Over/Under routine than I was in 2012), so it’s just still hard to believe that Barry Fucking Zito, given all the pitchers I’ve dealt with over the years on a daily basis, is in this enviable position of starting a Game 1 contest in the greatest World Championship this planet has to offer in any sport (I might be in the minority on that opinion). In any case, Zito did bounce back in 2012 with a respectable statline (15-8, 4.15 ERA), although if you look deeper into the numbers, you’d also see a not-pretty-at-all 1.39 WHIP and an ugly .263 opposing batting average (Second worst of his career). Perhaps most striking, he recorded the lowest number of strikeouts over his entire career (In a full season), punching out just 114 batters in 184.1 innings pitched. That, too, is not good. In Zito’s defense, he enjoyed a tremendous September/October of the regular season, in which he registered a 5-0 record and 3.02 ERA over six starts in that span, and that somewhat carried over into the playoffs, as despite a troubled first start in the NLDS against the Reds, he was actually phenomenal against the Cardinals last Friday, tossing almost eight shutout innings of six-hit ball, while walking just one and striking out seven. At the same time, if you really watched that game, he really wasn’t as effective as his stats may have indicated. Throwing innocent-looking 88 MPH fastballs and 75 MPH curveballs that didn’t have their usual bite to them, you’d think St. Louis would have roughed him up a bit, but luckily for Zito, he got in a groove, got some terrific fielding to bail him out of a couple of jams, and thus, he came out with an impressive win. If that’s the best Barry Zito can offer up, in which he was very hittable, then that can’t bode well for his outlook tonight, when I think he’ll more likely fall of the wagon. Detroit’s potent offense can get to him.
And then there’s Verlander. No reason to write as much about the reigning American League Cy Young, as we all know the deal: 17-8, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and, oh yeah, an incredible 239 strikeouts in 238 innings. In addition, his .217 opposing batting average looks pretty nifty as well, further emphasizing the obvious: He’s awfully tough to hit. That sentiment especially has been glaring over his past seven starts, in which he has a ridiculous 0.69 ERA. 0.69! Included in that streak are his three postseason starts, in which he has allowed only one run in each of them over 24-plus innings pitched. But… those are all under normal conditions. By that, I mean he was pitching on regular days’ rest (Except his first postseason start, which featured an extra day or two). This assignment tonight in Game 1 will be his first start in OVER A WEEK! I mean, with someone as consistent as Justin Verlander, it almost doesn’t matter what conditions he’s pitching in, but that’s still pretty significant, especially in a game where we virtually only need him to surrender more than the one run he’s been giving up in his other postseason starts. One of the key characteristics of being a successful starting pitcher at any level is being in the routine of starting every fifth day (Or fourth, if you’re in Colorado… scratch that, as nobody was successful in that routine except one of my favorite under-the-radar pitchers Tyler Chatwood. How about that? A Tyler Chatwood shout-out in a World Series article!), and Verlander is as much a machine as anybody out there in professional sports. But, when said machine is taken out of his usual cycle, well, that could lead to unexpected or unanticipated results. Like I said, with the line being at 6.5, we don’t need the Giants to rough up the great Verlander - thankfully that is not the case. As long as we get the desired crooked number off Zito and possibly the bullpen (Like a 5 or a 6 spot), then all we need is a measly two runs against the Detroit ace, which is very much possible with him out of his usual routine. Not pitching in game-time conditions, especially heading into a World Series matchup in which the pressure can’t be any bigger, can certainly effect even the best pitchers out there. Hopefully it’s enough to get to Verlander for a couple of runs, and then we’ll be in great shape. Remember, all we need is 5-3/5-2 and it goes in the books as an over victory. We’ll take it.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
