Opinions please on how to manage this SF futures play

simrdwnnow · Oct 24, 2012

i don't post much and i know there have been several "what would you do...how do i hedge" type threads in the past but wanted to lay out the exact scenario and solicit feedback.
I have 100 on SF to win WS before the beginning of the season, pays 1500, wanted a few ideas on how to play this as I want to walk with some money but do realize it's still gambling after all.
I thought about buying Det to win series but its at -175 right now, then thought about playing it gm by gm as I'd have to imagine SF would be a fav a few of these gms so I get + money on Det?
Admittedly, i'm more of an A's fan but (that futures ticket burned long ago) am enjoying the Giants success as a bay area sports fan..opinions welcome. Thanks in advance for any responses.

terps1313 · Oct 24, 2012

SF will be a dog every game this series. Game 2 is the only chance they will be close to an even odds pick, but even there I expect Det to be a small favorite.

nittyspicks · Oct 24, 2012

Don't bet anything unless Detroit gets 3 wins. Then you'll hedge against SF (bet on the Tigers) each subsequent game.

simrdwnnow · Oct 24, 2012

Thanks terps, i didn't realize this would be the case so the juice gm by gm would be painful

simrdwnnow · Oct 24, 2012

Thanks nittyspicks, may sound stupid but i never heard of or thought of this strategy, but i like it as it prob assures the most profit unless SF wins 3 in a row and it goes to 7 - thanks again for your input

BigCat · Oct 24, 2012

Put 100 on Detroit for the series. Now you have a Bonus Play on SF.

simrdwnnow · Oct 24, 2012

Thanks BC and everyone that chimed in, decided to put 100 on det series and hedge more if they get to 3. Enjoy the series and thanks again

nittyspicks · Oct 25, 2012

Sim, bad move, man.

Look at it like this: before you put the Det bet, best possible outcome was $1500. Now, best possible outcome is $1400. I really don't know what putting $100 on Det accomplishes at all unless your goal is to either a) win $1400 or b) break even. Using that rationale, you would have been better off letting it ride until if and when Det gets 3 wins, then betting $100 because in a 3-0 series you're likely to get a price better than -175.

simrdwnnow · Oct 25, 2012

Haha, agreed hindsight 20/20 but i respect BC and liked the idea of a Bonus Play on my original wager. Regardless, right or wrong i appreciated the feedback tonight and that's why i'm on this site. Cheers nitty, hope you hit your plays tonight