[h=1]Value among season win total bets[/h][h=3]Are Oklahoma City Thunder, Miami Heat, L.A. Lakers and others good values?[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Unlike last season, this NBA season is starting on time, and we don't have to wait until the holiday season to open our presents.<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2012-13 NBA REGULAR SEASON WINS[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
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<!-- end inline 1 -->The LVH -- Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (formerly Hilton) -- posted its NBA over/under season win totals on Oct. 2, and the accompanying chart shows the opening numbers and the adjusted totals after the wiseguys here in Vegas took a crack at them.
While the numbers are obviously for the use of gamblers, they also provide regular NBA fans a peak into how the oddsmakers (who must be on top of all the teams or else they'll jeopardize their bottom line) and sharp bettors think each team will fare during the regular season.
In all sports, over/under win totals continue to gain in popularity. In the old days (before the turn of the century), if you wanted to bet on a team to do well, your main option was to bet them to win the championship. If you thought that team was going to be good but not that good, you might have been able to find a conference or division bet to suit your needs. But it's much easier to bet on a team by going over their win total and not worrying as much as other teams outperforming them in the standings.
In addition, you can now bet against a team, although it's rare for a sports book to offer yes/no props on teams to win the title (and the prices are often prohibitive). Now, you can just go under their total at a more manageable price.
So let's take a look at some of the teams that wiseguys were betting to exceed or fall short of expectations, as well as some marquee teams.
[h=3]Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder: 61.5 wins[/h]<offer>It's no surprise that last season's finalists opened with the co-high season win total of 60.5. Sharp bettors didn't get too involved at first, as these two teams are both certainly expected to approach 60 wins. But you never know with teams like this that are totally focused on winning the title if they'll rest starters and not worry about how many wins they get as long as they secure home-court advantage. This past week, some money came in the Heat over their total and pushed it to 61.5, so the defending champs are still the favorite to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
[h=3]Los Angeles Lakers: 57.5 wins[/h]
Every team has to have a Big 3 these days, and a lot of people are excited about Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard in L.A. The LVH opened the Lakers' win total at 59.5 and it quickly got bet down to 58.5 (it also got bet down from 59.5 to 59 at Cantor Gaming books). The question is obviously how many games Howard is going to play, as well as how the Big 3 play together when he is on the court. Sharp bettors tend to look under when factoring injuries into the equation. Over this past weekend, the Lakers' number got bet down even further to 57.5.
[h=3]Denver Nuggets: 51.5 wins [/h]
ESPN The Magazine tabbed the Nuggets as the No. 1 seed in the West. Vegas isn't quite that optimistic, but the LVH opened their total at 49.5 and the wiseguys bet it up to 51.5. That's still not in the realm of the Thunder, Lakers or even Spurs, but it shows upside potential.
[h=3]Boston Celtics: 50.5 wins[/h]
Everyone talks about how old the Celtics are (though they got a little younger with the departure of Ray Allen), and oddsmakers know this, so they set the total at 51.5. Wiseguys still came in on the under and bet it down to 50 before some money came on the over to push it back to 50.5.
[h=3]Minnesota Timberwolves: 39 wins[/h]
The LVH opened this total at 38.5 and the wiseguys bet the over early and often. It had gone all the way to 41.5 (a three-game move that was the biggest initial move on the betting board) probably with optimism that Ricky Rubio will be returning before the end of the season, and it and stood there on Oct. 12.
That day, it was announced Kevin Love had broken his right hand and would miss an extended period of time. The LVH adjusted the over/under back to the original 38.5. Optimism is still high on the Wolves, and the past week saw a slight move on the over up to 39, so there's hope the rest of the team can do enough until the stars return.
[h=3]Dallas Mavericks: 41.5 wins[/h]
Just 16 months after their title, the Mavs are in rebuilding mode and Vegas isn't optimistic in the short term. The LVH opened them at 45.5 wins and it's been steamed all way down to 41.5, barely over .500 and probably an upside of battling for the No. 8 seed in the West.
[h=3]Philadelphia 76ers: 47 wins[/h]
This total opened 47.5 and sat there for three weeks, but this past weekend some wiseguys jumped on the under and it dipped to 47. There is some doubt if the 76ers can make up for the loss of Andre Iguodala's all-around play.
[h=3]New York Knicks/Brooklyn Nets: 45.5 wins[/h]
Both are currently at 45.5 wins. The Knicks opened there and haven't budged. The Nets, however, opened at 43.5 and wiseguys have shown their support for the addition of Joe Johnson. Both are projected to make the playoffs, but maybe not as easily as New Yorkers think, as they're tied for the seventh- and eighth-highest win totals in the East.
[h=3]Washington Wizards: 29.5 wins[/h]
The Wizards opened with a low total of 31.5 but wiseguys didn't think it was low enough as they pounded it to 29.5. They don't think the young Wizards have the experience to compete on a nightly basis.
[h=3]Charlotte Bobcats: 18.5 wins[/h]
Backing up the belief that the NBA is a league of haves and have-nots, the wiseguys also didn't think the Bobcats' opening number of 21.5 wins was low enough, as they've bet it down to 18.5. The good news is even if they go under at 18-64, their win percentage of .220 would still be more than twice as good as their all-time record-worst .106 last season.
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By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Unlike last season, this NBA season is starting on time, and we don't have to wait until the holiday season to open our presents.<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2012-13 NBA REGULAR SEASON WINS[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
| Team | Open (10/2) | Current (10/22) |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 60.5 | 61.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 60.5 | 60.5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 59.5 | 57.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 55.5 | 55.5 |
| Denver Nuggets | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 51.5 | 50.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 50.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 48.5 | 49.0 |
| Chicago Bulls | 47.5 | 47.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 47.5 | 47.0 |
| New York Knicks | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 43.5 | 45.5 |
| Utah Jazz | 42.5 | 44.0 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43.0 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 45.5 | 41.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 38.5 | 39.0 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 36.5 | 37.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 35.5 | 36.5 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 35.5 | 33.0 |
| Phoenix Suns | 34.5 | 33.0 |
| Toronto Raptors | 31.5 | 33.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 32.5 | 32.0 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 32.5 | 31.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | 29.5 | 31.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 30.5 | 29.0 |
| Washington Wizards | 31.5 | 28.5 |
| New Orleans Hornets | 26.5 | 26.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 21.5 | 18.5 |
| ***List is re-ordered based on current win totals as of Monday, Oct. 22 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->The LVH -- Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (formerly Hilton) -- posted its NBA over/under season win totals on Oct. 2, and the accompanying chart shows the opening numbers and the adjusted totals after the wiseguys here in Vegas took a crack at them.
While the numbers are obviously for the use of gamblers, they also provide regular NBA fans a peak into how the oddsmakers (who must be on top of all the teams or else they'll jeopardize their bottom line) and sharp bettors think each team will fare during the regular season.
In all sports, over/under win totals continue to gain in popularity. In the old days (before the turn of the century), if you wanted to bet on a team to do well, your main option was to bet them to win the championship. If you thought that team was going to be good but not that good, you might have been able to find a conference or division bet to suit your needs. But it's much easier to bet on a team by going over their win total and not worrying as much as other teams outperforming them in the standings.
In addition, you can now bet against a team, although it's rare for a sports book to offer yes/no props on teams to win the title (and the prices are often prohibitive). Now, you can just go under their total at a more manageable price.
So let's take a look at some of the teams that wiseguys were betting to exceed or fall short of expectations, as well as some marquee teams.
[h=3]Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder: 61.5 wins[/h]<offer>It's no surprise that last season's finalists opened with the co-high season win total of 60.5. Sharp bettors didn't get too involved at first, as these two teams are both certainly expected to approach 60 wins. But you never know with teams like this that are totally focused on winning the title if they'll rest starters and not worry about how many wins they get as long as they secure home-court advantage. This past week, some money came in the Heat over their total and pushed it to 61.5, so the defending champs are still the favorite to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
[h=3]Los Angeles Lakers: 57.5 wins[/h]
Every team has to have a Big 3 these days, and a lot of people are excited about Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard in L.A. The LVH opened the Lakers' win total at 59.5 and it quickly got bet down to 58.5 (it also got bet down from 59.5 to 59 at Cantor Gaming books). The question is obviously how many games Howard is going to play, as well as how the Big 3 play together when he is on the court. Sharp bettors tend to look under when factoring injuries into the equation. Over this past weekend, the Lakers' number got bet down even further to 57.5.
[h=3]Denver Nuggets: 51.5 wins [/h]
[h=3]Boston Celtics: 50.5 wins[/h]
[h=3]Minnesota Timberwolves: 39 wins[/h]
That day, it was announced Kevin Love had broken his right hand and would miss an extended period of time. The LVH adjusted the over/under back to the original 38.5. Optimism is still high on the Wolves, and the past week saw a slight move on the over up to 39, so there's hope the rest of the team can do enough until the stars return.
[h=3]Dallas Mavericks: 41.5 wins[/h]
[h=3]Philadelphia 76ers: 47 wins[/h]
[h=3]New York Knicks/Brooklyn Nets: 45.5 wins[/h]
[h=3]Washington Wizards: 29.5 wins[/h]
[h=3]Charlotte Bobcats: 18.5 wins[/h]
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