The Cat's MLB Playoff Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - October 25, 2012 - YTD: 10-10-1 (2012 Season: 361-329-47; 108-82-20, 57% from Aug 2-on) -Another 1,200-Word Article
2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 10-10-1, -$133
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, nice start to the World Series with a decisive Game 1 OVER victory, although it occurred in unlikely fashion, as it was Justin Verlander who surprisingly surrendered the bulk of the runs… that’s why I only stick to over/unders, as you see 100-percent of my entire record in each year is exclusively just that (Which is why I should be up a lot more when everything averages out to -110; poor money management is my weakness). But, of course, that’s only one game, and with Game 2 taking place tonight, you can’t dwell on it. You just move on and hope the winning continues. Luckily for all of you readers, I have a VERY good vibe concerning this next World Series contest on this Thursday night…
World Series Game 2
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants - $88 for $80
Doug Fister vs Madison Bumgarner
UNDER 7
First off, let me just say that I’m thankful the line is where it’s at, that being 7. After all, considering that Doug Fister isn’t exactly tremendously far off from the level of Justin Verlander, especially this postseason, and the fact that Madison Bumgarner is obviously the much superior pitcher compared to Barry Zito, I was legitimately afraid this game would get the 6.5-treatment, which has been labeled on countless games in San Francisco over the past couple of years, and if that were the case, there’s no way I’d be betting any type of significant amount on this game. Luckily, Vegas decided to go stick with the solid choice in 7, giving the under a ton of potential, as first and foremost, it protects us in the very possible event of a 5-2/4-3/6-1 outcome. With that being my worst-case scenario, you can feel good about this bet panning out, as we have two pitchers more than capable of holding our hands and leading us to a victory. Fister, as I alluded to, isn’t far off from his team’s ace if you really break down what he’s done with Detroit since being acquired in mid-2011. This year, he was very good once again, going 10-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while perhaps most impressively, maintaining a remarkable 137:37 K:BB ratio in 161 innings. His success has carried over into the postseason, where he has been superb in a couple of starts (Despite the over hitting in both of those contests, but each of those was the result of a ninth-inning fluke bullpen breakdown, of course), yielding just two runs in 13 innings of work. He was at his stingiest in his last outing, which came in New York (As I wrote then, it’s the toughest place to perform in the world in a high-pressure situation like an important playoff game) when he fired 6.1 shutout innings, so if he could handle himself well in that setting, he surely could in San Francisco, even though this is a World Series game. The fact is, if you’ve watched Doug Fister pitched, and I’ve watched this guy numerous time since his days of being an unknown in the Seattle Mariners organization (When he was underrated back then as well), you could tell by his body language that he doesn’t get nervous; he doesn’t let pressure get to him. When you see him stand on the mound with his focused glare, you can just tell he’s always calm, cool, and collected. As a result, while I cited Justin Verlander’s eight days off as being the main reason why he would be off yesterday (And I was correct), I don’t think the similar scenario will have as much an effect on Fister (Who had an incredibly unusual 11 days of rest) because of the reasons I stated related to the type of mindset he normally carries, and potentially also because of the lack of pressure he might be facing. Yes, his team is down 1-0 in the World Series, which usually would bring about a lot of pressure, but put yourself in his mind. The ace he always pitches behind just failed miserably only 24 hours ago, so essentially, Fister can kind of play with house money with his mind at ease and be more relaxed. If he fails, so what? So did Verlander. But the great thing about Fister is he’s usually sharp under any conditions, and he’ll be looking forward to this World Series assignment.
Opposing him for the Giants is the aforementioned Bumgarner, who has been uncharacteristically ineffective this postseason, having given up a whopping ten runs in just two starts! This, coming from someone who was 16-11 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while maintaining a Fister-esque strikeouts-to-walks ratio with a 191:49 mark in 208 innings. Even more bizarre is the fact that those two dreadful playoff starts came at home, where Bumgarner has always been at his best, ESPECIALLY this year when he was 10-3 with a terrific 2.38 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 starts at AT&T Park. Obviously, these postseason struggles have to do with his mentality, as for some reason, Bumgarner hasn’t been able to handle the playoff environment in 2012 just yet. However, with his last start being 11 days ago, that’s actually something that could be in our favor. Think about it: When you struggle mightily in something, you need time off, am I correct? Well Bumgarner was actually passed over for what was supposed to be his second start in the NLCS, which is something that is certainly very humbling. With that done, you can’t go any lower, so at this point in time, Bumgarner has to have kind of reset his mind and realized, “Okay, let me just get back to the basics and get back to what I’ve been doing.” When a pitcher does that - goes back to the basics and takes it one start at a time rather than looking back on the whole body of work that was his 2012 season - it means we should see more of their original patterns that brought them to their current level in the first place. As I’ve stressed countless times in my writing, the reason I love my MLB Over/Unders is because more than other position in sports, the role of being a starting pitcher requires the most potential of the human mind. If you can figure out a pitcher’s path mentally heading into a start, then it is more likely you can project their outlook for that given start. With Bumgarner having extensive time off after two woeful outings, that’s incredible for this under because it means he’s going back to the basics and not taking any of his pitches for granted. He’s going to put extra focus into each batter he works against in trying to get back on track, and the week-plus off refreshed him, making it easier to do all that. Being at home, where he has always excelled much more in his four-year career compared to on the road, should help that as well. This is my biggest bet of the playoffs, and there’s a reason for it. I feel good about this one.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 10-10-1, -$133
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, nice start to the World Series with a decisive Game 1 OVER victory, although it occurred in unlikely fashion, as it was Justin Verlander who surprisingly surrendered the bulk of the runs… that’s why I only stick to over/unders, as you see 100-percent of my entire record in each year is exclusively just that (Which is why I should be up a lot more when everything averages out to -110; poor money management is my weakness). But, of course, that’s only one game, and with Game 2 taking place tonight, you can’t dwell on it. You just move on and hope the winning continues. Luckily for all of you readers, I have a VERY good vibe concerning this next World Series contest on this Thursday night…
World Series Game 2
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants - $88 for $80
Doug Fister vs Madison Bumgarner
UNDER 7
First off, let me just say that I’m thankful the line is where it’s at, that being 7. After all, considering that Doug Fister isn’t exactly tremendously far off from the level of Justin Verlander, especially this postseason, and the fact that Madison Bumgarner is obviously the much superior pitcher compared to Barry Zito, I was legitimately afraid this game would get the 6.5-treatment, which has been labeled on countless games in San Francisco over the past couple of years, and if that were the case, there’s no way I’d be betting any type of significant amount on this game. Luckily, Vegas decided to go stick with the solid choice in 7, giving the under a ton of potential, as first and foremost, it protects us in the very possible event of a 5-2/4-3/6-1 outcome. With that being my worst-case scenario, you can feel good about this bet panning out, as we have two pitchers more than capable of holding our hands and leading us to a victory. Fister, as I alluded to, isn’t far off from his team’s ace if you really break down what he’s done with Detroit since being acquired in mid-2011. This year, he was very good once again, going 10-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while perhaps most impressively, maintaining a remarkable 137:37 K:BB ratio in 161 innings. His success has carried over into the postseason, where he has been superb in a couple of starts (Despite the over hitting in both of those contests, but each of those was the result of a ninth-inning fluke bullpen breakdown, of course), yielding just two runs in 13 innings of work. He was at his stingiest in his last outing, which came in New York (As I wrote then, it’s the toughest place to perform in the world in a high-pressure situation like an important playoff game) when he fired 6.1 shutout innings, so if he could handle himself well in that setting, he surely could in San Francisco, even though this is a World Series game. The fact is, if you’ve watched Doug Fister pitched, and I’ve watched this guy numerous time since his days of being an unknown in the Seattle Mariners organization (When he was underrated back then as well), you could tell by his body language that he doesn’t get nervous; he doesn’t let pressure get to him. When you see him stand on the mound with his focused glare, you can just tell he’s always calm, cool, and collected. As a result, while I cited Justin Verlander’s eight days off as being the main reason why he would be off yesterday (And I was correct), I don’t think the similar scenario will have as much an effect on Fister (Who had an incredibly unusual 11 days of rest) because of the reasons I stated related to the type of mindset he normally carries, and potentially also because of the lack of pressure he might be facing. Yes, his team is down 1-0 in the World Series, which usually would bring about a lot of pressure, but put yourself in his mind. The ace he always pitches behind just failed miserably only 24 hours ago, so essentially, Fister can kind of play with house money with his mind at ease and be more relaxed. If he fails, so what? So did Verlander. But the great thing about Fister is he’s usually sharp under any conditions, and he’ll be looking forward to this World Series assignment.
Opposing him for the Giants is the aforementioned Bumgarner, who has been uncharacteristically ineffective this postseason, having given up a whopping ten runs in just two starts! This, coming from someone who was 16-11 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while maintaining a Fister-esque strikeouts-to-walks ratio with a 191:49 mark in 208 innings. Even more bizarre is the fact that those two dreadful playoff starts came at home, where Bumgarner has always been at his best, ESPECIALLY this year when he was 10-3 with a terrific 2.38 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 15 starts at AT&T Park. Obviously, these postseason struggles have to do with his mentality, as for some reason, Bumgarner hasn’t been able to handle the playoff environment in 2012 just yet. However, with his last start being 11 days ago, that’s actually something that could be in our favor. Think about it: When you struggle mightily in something, you need time off, am I correct? Well Bumgarner was actually passed over for what was supposed to be his second start in the NLCS, which is something that is certainly very humbling. With that done, you can’t go any lower, so at this point in time, Bumgarner has to have kind of reset his mind and realized, “Okay, let me just get back to the basics and get back to what I’ve been doing.” When a pitcher does that - goes back to the basics and takes it one start at a time rather than looking back on the whole body of work that was his 2012 season - it means we should see more of their original patterns that brought them to their current level in the first place. As I’ve stressed countless times in my writing, the reason I love my MLB Over/Unders is because more than other position in sports, the role of being a starting pitcher requires the most potential of the human mind. If you can figure out a pitcher’s path mentally heading into a start, then it is more likely you can project their outlook for that given start. With Bumgarner having extensive time off after two woeful outings, that’s incredible for this under because it means he’s going back to the basics and not taking any of his pitches for granted. He’s going to put extra focus into each batter he works against in trying to get back on track, and the week-plus off refreshed him, making it easier to do all that. Being at home, where he has always excelled much more in his four-year career compared to on the road, should help that as well. This is my biggest bet of the playoffs, and there’s a reason for it. I feel good about this one.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
