[h=1]The NFL's best QB (so far)[/h][h=3]Peyton Manning 2.0 is dominating, but we're looking too closely to see it[/h]
By Chris Sprow | ESPN Insider
Peyton Manning is playing better than any quarterback in the NFL in 2012, and there is a lot of evidence to prove it.
The problem is that, after his year off, we might be too interested in monitoring how far "back" he is to realize it.
It could remind you a little of another triumphant return. Remember when Michael Jordan announced just how "back" he was after a self-imposed exile to Double-A baseball? It happened in Madison Square Garden on March 28, 1995, two weeks into his comeback. Jordan looked like the scorer of old as he torched the Knicks for 55 points, but the game was won when, with his team tied late, Jordan drove the lane and, instead of elevating over Patrick Ewing for the game-winning shot, dished the ball off to an open Bill Wennington for a game-winning layup.
While MJ had proved that he still had nearly every skill that had made him previously unstoppable, there was also at least the question of whether this was some new player, a cagier veteran who, while still brilliant, was more cognizant of some newly realized limitations. It had been two years. And even MJ hinted at it, saying after the game, "My first notion was to shoot it. I would be lying if I said I was going to pass the ball. I was going to make them stop me, but I was able to get the ball to the open man."
Self-aware MJ would have been a good storyline, but it didn't last because it couldn't. The days went on, and it was the same Jordan -- a me-first scorer at heart but also a win-at-all-costs competitor just resourceful enough to realize when that alpha status could be a tool for deception. It was the same player who, on his final play before that exile had driven the lane late and dished the ball off, allowing John Paxson to seal a championship.
Now cut to Peyton.
While we busily debate what he still has left, he is on pace to throw for more than 4,800 yards -- more than he has ever thrown for in a season. While we monitor his progress for he also leads the NFL in Total QBR, and if you drop a six-minute stretch against Atlanta where he tossed three of his four interceptions on the season, he'd be well ahead in passer rating too (currently second).
Yes, it's early, but Manning is playing as well as he ever has, particularly in the context of how it's being done. But we're caught up in a different form of evaluation, just as we were ever so briefly with MJ, gauging his current performance against the past.
Just consider how we're judging Manning -- and what we're missing.
<offer>One of the major questions that has dominated early evaluations of Manning's return is whether he still has arm strength. His deep balls are fluttering. What did all those neck surgeries sap from his strength? What did they mean for the nerves that would run down the back of that right arm? Well, those mallards are fluttering, and landing, brilliantly. Manning has gone 11-for-17 on throws more than 20 yards downfield over his last four games, throwing four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Deep Impact[/h]Peyton Manning passing more than 20 yards downfield, since Week 2:
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 1 -->On the year, his accuracy percentage on deep passes, defined as throws of 20-plus yards in the air, is 56 percent, according to ProFootballFocus. He is essentially tied with Drew Brees (56.3) for the NFL lead.
Is this a cagier Manning, one who gets the ball out earlier on deep throws to compensate for a dwindling fastball? In a word, no. Mel Kiper's 1997 draft evaluation of Manning stated that the Tennessee quarterback had "an underrated arm," even though that's a problem area. We can question if Manning has lost some velocity, but the common perception has always been that Manning wasn't a great deep passer based on arm strength, just an accurate one. In 2010, the year before the neck surgeries, Manning's deep-ball accuracy was at 37 percent. Manning is no worse at throwing the deep ball than he ever was, be it in Knoxville or Indianapolis, and it was never even a strength in the first place. He has succeeded on deep throws because the key has always been anticipating the route coming open, not just delivering strikes.
What about his mobility? In last week's "Monday Night Football" win over San Diego, Manning hurdled a defender, a "leap" that deserved a laugh track. It wasn't some momentary renaissance for No. 18, just another moment to laugh at a player who has always run like he was pulling a monster-truck tire in a training session. That same 1997 draft report noted that "Manning will never win a race" but has "just enough maneuverability to get past the first defender." Even with a 12-inch leap.
Manning has been hit while throwing just four times in 2012 and sacked just 10 times, tied for 26th in the NFL. He is dropped on under 3.0 percent of dropbacks. This even as the Denver offensive line performs almost identically in pass-blocking as it did in 2011. That's because Manning's real mobility starts before the snap. No QB is more a master at getting his O-lineman set up properly or making pre-snap reads. He is a clever statue and also among the NFL's hardest quarterbacks to sack, same as it ever was.
We could suggest that Manning's weapons in Denver are far better than anticipated. Demaryius Thomas, whose route tree at Georgia Tech was a cactus, finally looks like the first-round talent he is. Eric Decker has officially invaded the fantasy space. And the presence of the ageless Brandon Stokley adds familiarity. But again, we know better. The same group of pass-catchers who many believed held Tim Tebow back in 2011 aren't now responsible for an air attack completing passes at a 20 percent higher rate. Manning, as always, is maximizing the talent around him and adjusting as he allows defenses to dictate what he does. As Kiper wrote in 1997, "Players have told me Manning knows what's going on [on the field] as well as most offensive or defensive coordinators." Has anything changed?
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Late Fate[/h]Peyton Manning when trailing in second half this season (* - NFL leader):
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 -->This is particularly evident late in games. With more time to diagnose, he is getting more results. As such, this older, damaged Manning isn't getting worn out; he's getting even. This season, he has thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions when trailing in the second half. No other quarterback has a differential higher than plus-4. His 93.4 Total QBR in those situations is the best in the NFL.
While the results show just a 3-3 record for Denver, those losses are to Atlanta, Houston and New England. Denver has played one of the toughest early schedules, all while breaking in a new version of its old star.
Except this really isn't a new version. Just like Jordan.
After he came back, MJ showed he hadn't really changed at all. Maybe he couldn't jump quite as high, but he was probably even more determined to prove it didn't matter. His assist rate dropped while he led the NBA in scoring for the next three seasons.
That's the thing about great athletes. We like to credit late-career success to some innate ability to adapt, but being great often just means that even the older, diminished version is better than most.
Manning may eventually look merely good as the athlete in him fades. And this by no means an argument that he's the best QB in the NFL, period. We know that's not the case. But Manning has been the best quarterback early in 2012 in part because he was never a brilliant athlete in the first place.
</offer>
By Chris Sprow | ESPN Insider
Peyton Manning is playing better than any quarterback in the NFL in 2012, and there is a lot of evidence to prove it.
The problem is that, after his year off, we might be too interested in monitoring how far "back" he is to realize it.
It could remind you a little of another triumphant return. Remember when Michael Jordan announced just how "back" he was after a self-imposed exile to Double-A baseball? It happened in Madison Square Garden on March 28, 1995, two weeks into his comeback. Jordan looked like the scorer of old as he torched the Knicks for 55 points, but the game was won when, with his team tied late, Jordan drove the lane and, instead of elevating over Patrick Ewing for the game-winning shot, dished the ball off to an open Bill Wennington for a game-winning layup.
While MJ had proved that he still had nearly every skill that had made him previously unstoppable, there was also at least the question of whether this was some new player, a cagier veteran who, while still brilliant, was more cognizant of some newly realized limitations. It had been two years. And even MJ hinted at it, saying after the game, "My first notion was to shoot it. I would be lying if I said I was going to pass the ball. I was going to make them stop me, but I was able to get the ball to the open man."
Self-aware MJ would have been a good storyline, but it didn't last because it couldn't. The days went on, and it was the same Jordan -- a me-first scorer at heart but also a win-at-all-costs competitor just resourceful enough to realize when that alpha status could be a tool for deception. It was the same player who, on his final play before that exile had driven the lane late and dished the ball off, allowing John Paxson to seal a championship.
Now cut to Peyton.
While we busily debate what he still has left, he is on pace to throw for more than 4,800 yards -- more than he has ever thrown for in a season. While we monitor his progress for he also leads the NFL in Total QBR, and if you drop a six-minute stretch against Atlanta where he tossed three of his four interceptions on the season, he'd be well ahead in passer rating too (currently second).
Yes, it's early, but Manning is playing as well as he ever has, particularly in the context of how it's being done. But we're caught up in a different form of evaluation, just as we were ever so briefly with MJ, gauging his current performance against the past.
Just consider how we're judging Manning -- and what we're missing.
<offer>One of the major questions that has dominated early evaluations of Manning's return is whether he still has arm strength. His deep balls are fluttering. What did all those neck surgeries sap from his strength? What did they mean for the nerves that would run down the back of that right arm? Well, those mallards are fluttering, and landing, brilliantly. Manning has gone 11-for-17 on throws more than 20 yards downfield over his last four games, throwing four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Deep Impact[/h]Peyton Manning passing more than 20 yards downfield, since Week 2:
| Stat | Totals | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Comp | 11 | T-1st |
| Comp pct | 64.7 | T-1st |
| TD-Int | +4 | T-1st |
| Total QBR | 100.0 | T-1st |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 1 -->On the year, his accuracy percentage on deep passes, defined as throws of 20-plus yards in the air, is 56 percent, according to ProFootballFocus. He is essentially tied with Drew Brees (56.3) for the NFL lead.
Is this a cagier Manning, one who gets the ball out earlier on deep throws to compensate for a dwindling fastball? In a word, no. Mel Kiper's 1997 draft evaluation of Manning stated that the Tennessee quarterback had "an underrated arm," even though that's a problem area. We can question if Manning has lost some velocity, but the common perception has always been that Manning wasn't a great deep passer based on arm strength, just an accurate one. In 2010, the year before the neck surgeries, Manning's deep-ball accuracy was at 37 percent. Manning is no worse at throwing the deep ball than he ever was, be it in Knoxville or Indianapolis, and it was never even a strength in the first place. He has succeeded on deep throws because the key has always been anticipating the route coming open, not just delivering strikes.
What about his mobility? In last week's "Monday Night Football" win over San Diego, Manning hurdled a defender, a "leap" that deserved a laugh track. It wasn't some momentary renaissance for No. 18, just another moment to laugh at a player who has always run like he was pulling a monster-truck tire in a training session. That same 1997 draft report noted that "Manning will never win a race" but has "just enough maneuverability to get past the first defender." Even with a 12-inch leap.
Manning has been hit while throwing just four times in 2012 and sacked just 10 times, tied for 26th in the NFL. He is dropped on under 3.0 percent of dropbacks. This even as the Denver offensive line performs almost identically in pass-blocking as it did in 2011. That's because Manning's real mobility starts before the snap. No QB is more a master at getting his O-lineman set up properly or making pre-snap reads. He is a clever statue and also among the NFL's hardest quarterbacks to sack, same as it ever was.
We could suggest that Manning's weapons in Denver are far better than anticipated. Demaryius Thomas, whose route tree at Georgia Tech was a cactus, finally looks like the first-round talent he is. Eric Decker has officially invaded the fantasy space. And the presence of the ageless Brandon Stokley adds familiarity. But again, we know better. The same group of pass-catchers who many believed held Tim Tebow back in 2011 aren't now responsible for an air attack completing passes at a 20 percent higher rate. Manning, as always, is maximizing the talent around him and adjusting as he allows defenses to dictate what he does. As Kiper wrote in 1997, "Players have told me Manning knows what's going on [on the field] as well as most offensive or defensive coordinators." Has anything changed?
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Late Fate[/h]Peyton Manning when trailing in second half this season (* - NFL leader):
| Stat | 2012 |
|---|---|
| TD-Int | 9-0* |
| Comp pct | 66.7 |
| Pass yds | 795 |
| Total QBR | 93.4* |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 -->This is particularly evident late in games. With more time to diagnose, he is getting more results. As such, this older, damaged Manning isn't getting worn out; he's getting even. This season, he has thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions when trailing in the second half. No other quarterback has a differential higher than plus-4. His 93.4 Total QBR in those situations is the best in the NFL.
While the results show just a 3-3 record for Denver, those losses are to Atlanta, Houston and New England. Denver has played one of the toughest early schedules, all while breaking in a new version of its old star.
Except this really isn't a new version. Just like Jordan.
After he came back, MJ showed he hadn't really changed at all. Maybe he couldn't jump quite as high, but he was probably even more determined to prove it didn't matter. His assist rate dropped while he led the NBA in scoring for the next three seasons.
That's the thing about great athletes. We like to credit late-career success to some innate ability to adapt, but being great often just means that even the older, diminished version is better than most.
Manning may eventually look merely good as the athlete in him fades. And this by no means an argument that he's the best QB in the NFL, period. We know that's not the case. But Manning has been the best quarterback early in 2012 in part because he was never a brilliant athlete in the first place.
</offer>
