Service Plays Monday 10/29/12

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Marc Lawrence lts:

3* Arizona+7

Jimmy boyd

3* san fran -6.5

Tuley's Take:

Cardinals +7

POINTWISE PHONES:

2* Arizona

Ms.Charleen
15-7

49ers monday - 6 1/2

Dave Blezow

1-11 last week

42-58

49ers

Prediction machine

244 8:30 pm @ari sf +7 - -4.4 - 57.9% pp

Bob Christ

PRO FOOTBALL MONDAY, Oct. 29

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

Time: 5:40 a.m. PDT

Line: 49ers by 6½ (37½)

Facts: Last year when Arizona hosted SF, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite a -3 turnover differential. Over the past two seasons, all other teams have a cumulative 1-30 mark with such a margin. • Arizona has yielded 29 sacks its past four games, three more than any other team has given up all year. • On Arizona’s last 10 short fields, it has only 1 TD and 3 FGs. • In SF’s 13-6 win over Seattle last Thursday, the Seahawks’ average starting field position was their 15. That’s the worst starting point for any team since the Steelers’ norm was their 15 at San Fran in 2011.

Analysis: Did the sprained finger on 49ers QB Alex Smith’s passing hand heal sufficiently over the team’s extended break? He’s not listed on the injury report, but his production has suffered the past two weeks as he’s dropped from No. 1 to No. 8 on the passer charts. Now he’ll be going against a unit that has the league’s second best defensive passer rating and will have the prime-time home edge. Considering the Cardinals held the Vikings to 43 net air yards last week, Smith could be in more trouble. But probably not enough to cost SF a victory.

Forecast: 49ers 16, Cardinals 14

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS

TOP (3 UNITS)

CARDINALS +7 vs 49'ers

Vegas Runner (pregame radio)
Bonus Play

Arz +7

Hank Gola
11-1 last week

Arizona+7

49ers at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Cardinals’ great start to the season may come to a screeching halt on Monday night. A home loss to a division rival would be tough for Arizona to overcome, and a win at Arizona will be another step for the 49ers toward establishing themselves as the clear favorites to win the NFC West.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 20, Cardinals 13.

Florio’s take: Once atop the NFC West, the Cardinals are close to completing their slide to the basement. Blame it on the lack of a high-end quarterback and an offensive line to protect him.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 13.

Monday Night Football: 49ers at Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (7, 38.5)

For the second consecutive week, the San Francisco 49ers will get a chance to make a primetime pitch to assert their command of the NFC West race when they travel to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night. The 49ers are coming off a 13-6 win over Seattle last Thursday that put them back atop the division standings alone, but they'll need to hand Arizona its fourth straight loss to remain there. The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak, and the offense is in for a challenge against a San Francisco team that leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). Kevin Kolb (ribs) had not been ruled out as of Thursday, but John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback for the Cardinals.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: San Francisco -7. O/U: 38.5.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (5-2): San Francisco usually knows what to expect from its dominant defense, but the offense has been a bit of an enigma. The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-3): Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load. Stephens-Howling had a career-high 104 rushing yards and a touchdown last week, and the Cardinals will need another strong effort from him against a 49ers defense that is dominant against the pass. Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success.

TRENDS:
* 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals’ last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six games overall.
* Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers have won five of the past six meetings, but the Cardinals won the most recent one, 21-19 last December in Arizona, with three touchdown passes from Skelton.

2. San Francisco is 13-0 when Smith starts and has a rating of 100.0 or higher. He has won 19 of his past 24 starts.

3. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating.

Tale of the tape: 49ers at Cardinals

Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.

Offense

The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak. John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating. Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load.

Edge: 49ers

Defense

San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). The 49ers pass rush will look to take advantage of a Cardinals' line that has given up 35 sacks in seven games, including 29 in the last four, and is on pace for 80 sacks -the second-most in NFL history.

Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success. The defense has yielded 331 rushing yards in the past two games, but surrendered only 14 points in each of those losses.

Edge: 49ers

Special teams

49ers punter Andy Lee earned NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors, after pinning the Seahawks inside their own 20-yard line on four of five punts in the 13-6 victory last week.

The Arizona Cardinals should get a boost to their special teams squad with the return of Anthony Sherman (knee) and Reggie Walker (concussion). Return man Patrick Peterson leads the NFL in punt return yards -- 229 of them through seven games. But his average, 8.8 yards per return, puts him in the middle of the pack and his longest return this year is just 26 yards.

Edge: Cardinals

Word on the street

“When you think of the Cardinals you’re going to think of Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, And he’s one of the top receivers in our league, if not the best receiver in the league. Future Hall of Famer and justifiably so, and he’s a tough guy to handle. He’s big. He’s fast. He’s strong. He’s tough to tackle after he catches it. So, him in and of himself is a tough chore.” --49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on Larry Fitzgerald.

"They're not giving me a chance, really, honestly, they're (the opposition) putting the ball close on the sidelines so they can ... kind of bottle me on the sideline and vise me in versus giving me the whole field to work with." --Peterson on why he hasn’t returned a punt or kick for a TD yet this season.

THE GOLDSHEET

San Francisco 17 - ARIZONA 15—Defenses figure to dominate, as the
Cardinals tallied five sacks against S.F. in last season’s second-meeting
victory. John Skelton had 3 TDP, but 2 ints., in that narrow Arizona triumph.
The Cards have covered their last 4 as a home dog, and 6 of their last 8. Due
partly to HC Jim Harbaugh declining a safety last week vs. Seattle, the 49ers
are 3-3 when favored TY, with Alex Smith having 9 TDP, 5 ints., and 3 fumbles.
5-7 RB LaRod Stephens-Howling (20 for 104) gave the Cards a ground attack
last week at Minnesota, but Arizona gave up 7 more sacks (now 35 for the year).
Spread roomy enough to make the Cards the percentage side, even vs. the
rugged Niner defense. Arizona 6-1 “under” TY; S.F. “over” only twice in seven
games. CABLE TV—ESPN

DCI NFL

Week
Straight Up: 7-4 (.538)
ATS: 5-8 (.385)
ATS Vary Units: 19-41 (.317)
Over/Under: 3-9 (.250)
Over/Under Vary Units: 8-25 (.242)

Season
Straight Up: 64-47 (.577)
ATS: 48-66 (.421)
ATS Vary Units: 220-403 (.353)
Over/Under: 60-53 (.531)
Over/Under Vary Units: 245-201 (.549)

Monday, October 29, 2012
San Francisco 20, ARIZONA 12