Service Plays Tuesday 10/30/12

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GL!

NBA Southeast Division preview: Heat head and shoulders above all

The defending NBA champs are huge favorites to top the Southeast Division, big chalk to win the Eastern Conference and the oddsmakers’ choice to repeat their NBA title. But while all eyes are on the Heat, there could be hidden value below them in the standings.

Atlanta Hawks (2011-12: 40-26 SU, 36-28-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1,400
Season win total: 43.5

Why bet the Hawks: Atlanta has overhauled its roster and we see that as a good thing. The Hawks were getting too complacent with the guys they had and they just got stagnant. Atlanta went as Joe Johnson went, but he is now gone and the Hawks will be more of a team this season.

Why not bet the Hawks: Defense. The Hawks ranked sixth in overall defensive efficiency last season, but they will decline this year. Atlanta is a small team and, with a wealth of scorers, the Hawks will likely need to outscore opponents to win. The Hawks will play at a faster pace, so transition defense will be a key.

Season win total pick: Over 43.5

Charlotte Bobcats (2011-12: 7-59 SU, 23-43-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +15,000
Season win total: 21.5

Why bet the Bobcats: There’s nowhere to go but up for Charlotte. The Bobcats won just seven of 66 games last season - that’s no misprint. Charlotte went 7-59. The Bobcats overhauled the coaching staff and they’ve added five new players to the roster. They have a fresh start and they will be catching a lot of points on most nights this season.

Why not bet the Bobcats: Bad. A simple adjective is all that is needed to describe Charlotte. With a new system plugged with recycled players, there’s going to be a lot of losing once again. New head coach Mike Dunlap is a defensive strategist, but he’s going to need a couple of years to get the right players in place.

Season win total pick: Under 21.5

Miami Heat (2011-12: 46-20 SU, 32-34-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: -2,500
Season win total: 60.5

Why bet the Heat: The defending NBA champs should be even better this season. Miami is a loaded team and when it plays small, it’s virtually impossible to beat. The Heat added Ray Allen and he brings two major upgrades with his 3-point shooting and his free-throw shooting.

Why not bet the Heat: Health. Teams were able to attack Miami inside last season, especially when Chris Bosh was out with injury. He’s a fragile guy and if he misses time, the Heat could slip up a bit. Dwyane Wade will also be playing on an unstable knee and Ray Allen is coming off ankle surgery.

Season win total pick: Over 60.5

Orlando Magic (2011-12: 37-29 SU, 34-32-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +7,000
Season win total: 24.5

Why bet the Magic: Orlando won’t have the Dwight Howard drama to deal with anymore and without that distraction, the Magic will be able to focus on basketball. Their offense should be more dynamic and the team, as a whole, will be unselfish. New head coach Jacque Vaughn also brings new life to Orlando.

Why not bet the Magic: Losses. Despite the negative attention he brought, Dwight Howard was still a dominant player. And you just can’t replace that type of talent. Orlando’s defense will be easy to score upon and since it’ll be playing with youth in a rebuilding year, the Magic will struggle.

Season win total pick: Under 24.5

Washington Wizards (2011-12: 20-46 SU, 26-36-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,500
Season win total: 31.5

Why bet the Wizards: Washington has low expectations once again this season. The Wizards do
have plenty of talent on hand and they got rid of the headache known as Andray Blatche. Washington will have a much-improved defense which will keep it competitive in a lot games this season.

Why not bet the Wizards: Offense. Washington’s offense will struggle to score points as it simply doesn’t have enough high-powered offensive players. That weakness will be glaring without John Wall on the court. He will miss about six weeks with a stress injury in his left knee. If he has a setback, the Wizards are in the danger zone.

Season win total pick: Over 31.5

NBA Atlantic Division preview: Celtics lead a tight race

The Atlantic Division is one of the most wide-open groups in the NBA, giving some true value to those preseason futures odds. Take a look and why and why not to bet these five teams and get our NBA expert's pick for each clubs' season win total.

Boston Celtics (2011-12: 39-27 SU, 34-30-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +165
Season win total: 51.5

Why to bet the Celtics: Boston has the premier point guard in the NBA with Rajon Rondo. The Celtics go as he goes, and as long as he stays healthy this team is dangerous. Boston still has veterans Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett and they added 3-point specialist Jason Terry.

Why not to bet the Celtics: Age. Aside from Rondo, the Celtics main contributors are 36 (Garnett), 35 (Terry), and 34 (Pierce). They wore down noticeably last season despite the shortened schedule and going back to 82 games this year will be a major challenge for Doc Rivers to keep his guys fresh for the playoffs.

Season win total pick: Under 51.5

Brooklyn Nets (2011-12: 22-44 SU, 28-38-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +350
Season win total: 43.5

Why to bet the Nets: Brooklyn has a deep roster with quality depth at every position. The Nets will be an explosive offensive team led by the backcourt duo of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson. The Nets also have Brook Lopez inside, who is one of the league’s best low-post scorers.

Why not to bet the Nets: Defense. The Nets will have to out-score their opponents to win this season. Avery Johnson is a defensive-minded coach, but Brooklyn is loaded with veteran guys who have proven to be offense first. Those guys will also need time to adjust to their new teammates and new system.

Season win total pick: Under 43.5

New York Knicks (2011-12: 36-30 SU, 27-39-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +240
Season win total: 45.5

Why to bet the Knicks: New York finally has the depth it’s longed for. The Knicks don’t need to rely heavily on their starting unit so they should be a fresher team late in games. The Knicks seemed to play hard for head coach Mike Woodson when he took over last season, so they should do the same from the get-go.

Why not to bet the Knicks: Chemistry. Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are not a good fit. And now the Knicks have a completely revamped roster coming into this season with the additions of Marcus Camby, Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Kurt Thomas, and Rasheed Wallace. The one variable they all have is old age - four of those five guys are 38 or older.

Season win total pick: Under 45.5

Philadelphia 76ers (2011-12: 35-31 SU, 33-32-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +400
Season win total: 47.5

Why to bet the 76ers: Philadelphia was an exciting team to watch last season, especially after it changed to an up-tempo offense. The 76ers are a youthful team and they’ve added two more offensive weapons in Jason Richardson, who will start, and Nick Young off the bench. Andrew Bynum gives Philadelphia a big guy in the paint which should help Spencer Hawes’ production.

Why not to bet the 76ers: Losses. Philadelphia traded Andre Iguodala and they lost Lou Williams to free agency. Iguodala and Williams were the 76ers best players last season, so now they must rely on newcomers (Bynum, Richardson, and Young) to catch on quickly to a new system. It’s going to take some time and bettors really don’t know if the pieces are going to fit together.

Season win total pick: Under 47.5

Toronto Raptors (2011-12: 23-43 SU, 28-38-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +8,000
Season win total: 31.5

Why to bet the Raptors: Toronto has just 43 wins to 103 losses over the last two seasons. That alone creates plenty of value and the Raptors have some potential. They will be changing their offensive philosophy to more of an up-tempo team. Head coach Dwane Casey is well respected, and if the Raptors don’t forget to play defense, they will be much improved.

Why not to bet the Raptors: Turnovers. With Toronto changing the way they play, there are going to be some growing pains. There’s going to be sloppy play and reports out of training camp say the Raptors are “throwing the ball all over the gym.” Until they get into rhythm, Toronto’s defense will suffer because of their offense.

Season win total pick: Over 31.5

NBA Northwest Division preview: Thunder's league to lose

The Northwest Division is a one-horse race with the defending Western Conference champs set as big favorites to win the division crown. But some up-and-coming teams provide plenty of long-shot value behind the Thunder.

Denver Nuggets (2011-12: 50-32 SU, 44-34-4 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1,000
Season win total: 49.5

Why to bet the Nuggets: Denver is loaded with offensive talent, but it added a strong defensive piece in Andre Iguodala. He is a terrific perimeter defender and his addition was a major coup for the Nuggets. Wilson Chandler only played in eight games last year, but fully healthy, he and Iguodala improve Denver’s defense a bunch.

Why not to bet the Nuggets: Injuries. Denver can never seem to stay healthy for an entire season. And those injuries seem to occur in clusters. The Nuggets’ second unit is also young and they struggle to score at times. It will take time for them to gel as head coach George Karl is still mixing and matching their minutes.

Season win total pick: Over 49.5

Minnesota Timberwolves (2011-12: 17-65 SU, 36-46-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2,500
Season win total: 38.5

Why to bet the Timberwolves: Minnesota was in the playoff hunt last year before injuries derailed them. But if the T-Wolves stay healthy and the team’s new additions of Andrei Kirilenko and Brandon Roy can contribute, they will be fighting for a playoff spot once again. Minnesota has built their team unity nicely during camp.

Why not to bet the Timberwolves: Point guard. Minnesota would have little to worry about if point guard Ricky Rubio was healthy. Rubio isn’t slated to return until at least late December or early January, and his absence is the only real hole this team has. Luke Ridnour will play in his place, but he’s dealing with back spasms and Minnesota has little else if he also goes down.

Season win total pick: Over 38.5

Oklahoma City Thunder (2011-12: 55-27 SU, 43-38-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -900
Season win total: 60.5

Why to bet the Thunder: Oklahoma City has one of the top duos in the NBA with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Both are bona fide scorers and opponents have difficulty in shutting them both down in a game. Overall, the Thunder have an excellent offense which led them to the Finals last season. That experience will be extremely valuable this season.

Why not to bet the Thunder: Defense. Oklahoma City couldn’t stop the good offensive teams last season, and once again its defense looks suspect on paper. The Thunder can certainly out-score any team, but playoff games are won with defense. Unless Durant and Westbrook buy into defense, the Thunder will disappoint once again.

Season win total pick: Under 60.5

Portland Trail Blazers (2011-12: 48-34 SU, 43-36-3 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2,800
Season win total: 35.5

Why to bet the Trail Blazers: Portland has some young, exciting talent on hand this season. Rookie point guard Damian Lillard leads the way and if he lives up to the hype, the Trail Blazers can build around him. Portland also has three solid veterans (Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum) for Lillard to work with, so this team isn’t without hope.

Why not to bet the Trail Blazers: Mystery. Portland made some questionable moves this offseason and its roster is basically a mixed bag of youth and washed-up veterans. There’s too much uncertainty after the starting five and the Trail Blazers may have to blow up their roster for salary cap reasons once they fall out of the playoff chase.

Season win total pick: Under 35.5

Utah Jazz (2011-12: 39-43 SU, 34-46-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2,800
Season win total: 42.5

Why to bet the Jazz: Utah surprisingly made the playoffs last season and it should build off that this season. This is one of the biggest teams in the NBA and when head coach Tyrone Corbin went to his big lineup, the Jazz played exceptional. Their defense needs improvement but their offense will get them some wins this season.

Why not to bet the Jazz: Youth. Utah is still a relatively young team. Aside from Al Jefferson and veteran Mo Williams, three main contributors are all 22 years old or younger. In order to win, Utah needs those guys to develop and improve off last season, but that is never a certainly in the fickle NBA.

Season win total pick: Under 42.5

James Harden was traded from Thunder to Rockets on Sunday.

NBA Central Division preview: With no Rose, Bulls must hold off Pacers

The Central Division’s biggest star is a question mark for the start of the season, providing the Pacers a chance to build some momentum before Derrick Rose returns to the Bulls lineup.

Chicago Bulls (2011-12: 50-16 SU, 38-27-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -190
Season win total: 47.5

Why bet the Bulls: Chicago will enter the season as a forgotten commodity. With Derrick Rose’s ACL injury sidelining him until at least February, the Bulls have low expectations this season. But head coach Tom Thibodeau is terrific and the Bulls have won without Rose in the past. They will rely on their strong defense to win games this season.

Why not bet the Bulls: Bench. Chicago’s second unit is a work in progress. The Bulls had a cohesive bench over the last couple of years in which five guys would play together for 15 minutes per game. This year’s version is a mishmash unit and it’s likely the Bulls will only play an eight or nine-man rotation.

Season win total pick: Over 47.5

Cleveland Cavaliers (2011-12: 21-45 SU, 31-35-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,000
Season win total: 32.5

Why bet the Cavaliers: Cleveland has one of the future stars of the NBA on their team in Kyrie Irving. The kid (he’s only 21 years old) is exciting and a bona fide superstar in the making. He can carry this team to some surprising wins on his own and as long as he’s on the court, the Cavaliers have a shot to win.

Why not bet the Cavaliers: Youth. The Cavaliers are a young and inexperienced team that will need time to develop. Their core talent is either in their second-year guys or rookies, and all of them are 25 years old or younger. Cleveland’s defense was bad last season and with all of its youth, don’t expect it to be much better.

Season win total pick: Under 32.5

Detroit Pistons (2011-12: 25-41 SU, 32-33-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,000
Season win total: 32.5

Why bet the Pistons: Detroit played much better basketball than its 25-41 record indicates. Remember, the Pistons started the season at 5-20 which means they went 20-21 the rest of the way. It took time for them to gel and with a full training camp, we expect more consistency from the start.

Why not bet the Pistons: Defense. Head coach Lawrence Frank will get the Pistons better on that end of the floor and Andre Drummond will certainly help. But young and talented offensive players don’t like to guard and it will take Frank some time to get the Pistons to defend game in and game out.

Season win total pick: Over 32.5

Indiana Pacers (2011-12: 42-24 SU, 32-34-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +130
Season win total: 51.5

Why bet the Pacers: Indiana is a young team on the rise. The Pacers won 42 games last season and they should improve off that success. Indiana has a wealth of talent on its roster and it goes beyond just the starting five. The Pacers flew under the radar last season and the same thing may happen this season simply because they don’t have big-name players.

Why not bet the Pacers: Matchups. Indiana has one defensive weakness and that is the fact it can’t defend athletic forwards. The Pacers are too slow-footed down low to contend with quick big men and against particular teams, Indiana is simply overmatched.

Season win total pick: Under 51.5

Milwaukee Bucks (2011-12: 31-35 SU, 29-37-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2,800
Season win total: 36.5

Why bet the Bucks: This is Milwaukee’s make-or-break season. The Bucks have finished just out of the playoffs the last two years and it’s time for them to finish in the Top 8. Their offense took off when they acquired Monta Ellis and they should be even better this season.

Why not bet the Bucks: Pressure. Milwaukee has to win this year or else major changes will be on the horizon. Head coach Scott Skiles is in the final year of his contract and Brandon Jennings will be entering that territory next season. Their defense slipped big time and if they want to be contenders, they must fix that weakness as well.

Season win total pick: Over 36.5

NBA Pacific Division preview: Lakers, Clippers in battle for L.A.

It’s a battle for Los Angeles in the Pacific Division, with the Lakers and Clippers in an arms race. Both L.A. teams loaded up on talent this offseason, leaving the bottom three teams to fight amongst themselves.

Golden State Warriors (2011-12: 23-43 SU, 36-29-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,000
Season win total: 34.5

Why bet the Warriors: Golden State now has center Andrew Bogut and, if he’s healthy and remains that way for the entire season, the Warriors have a puncher’s chance. Bogut will make the Warriors defense much better than they’ve been and since this team has better bench depth, Golden State may surprise some teams.

Why not bet the Warriors: Coaching. Insiders say Mark Jackson simply is not the right coach for this team. Jackson only has one year of experience and his defensive philosophies don’t match the personnel. Their offense is predicated on the outside shot and if those shots aren’t falling, the Warriors are not good enough defensively to overcome that.

Season win total pick: Under 34.5

Los Angeles Clippers (2011-12: 40-26 SU, 33-33-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +320
Season win total: 48.5

Why bet the Clippers: Los Angeles has a solid duo with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. That combo landed the Clippers in the playoffs last season and they should have no problems returning this season. Los Angeles added a nice complimentary piece in Grant Hill and if their other reaches pan out (Lamar Odom), then this team likely gets a No. 3 seed in the West.

Why not bet the Clippers: Defense. The most glaring weakness this team has is defending the two-guard spot. The Clippers simply can’t matchup at that position with the heavyweights of the West, and in the playoffs that will be their downfall. They also need their second-team defenders to become better scorers but that may be asking for too much.

Season win total pick: Over 48.5

Los Angeles Lakers (2011-12: 41-25 SU, 28-38-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: -425
Season win total: 59.5

Why bet the Lakers: The other team in Los Angles is simply loaded and one of the favorites to represent the West in the NBA Finals. The acquisitions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash make this team quite formidable and opponents are going to earn every win against the Lakers.

Why not bet the Lakers: Chemistry. It’s more difficult than it seems for superstars to mesh when playing on the same team, especially when they are learning a new style of offense. The Lakers will run a hybrid of the Princeton offense, so it will take time for them to work out the kinks. Watch their bench closely as well. The second unit isn’t all that good.

Season win total pick: Under 59.5

Phoenix Suns (2011-12: 33-33 SU, 34-32-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +6,600
Season win total: 34.5

Why bet the Suns: Phoenix will be an afterthought out West, which means it will be significant underdogs in the majority of its games. The Suns are always dangerous on their home court and when catching teams in bad scheduling spots, this team may be able to pull off a few upsets along the way.

Why not bet the Suns: Rebuilding. Phoenix will basically have a whole new team this season. The Suns lost the face of their franchise with Steve Nash now in LA. The Suns lack talent and they’re counting on injury-prone guys like Michael Beasley and Jermaine O’Neal to carry them. Phoenix has no defense either and it will need to outscore teams to win.

Season win total pick: Under 34.5

Sacramento Kings (2011-12: 22-44 SU, 29-37 ATS)

Odds to win division: +10,000
Season win total: 29.5

Why bet the Kings: Sacramento can do two things really well: It runs a fast-paced offense and when the shots are falling, it is incredibly difficult to beat. The Kings also have one of the best rebounding teams in the league and that prowess allows them to hang around in games against superior teams. When both of those areas are on, the Kings are a tough out.

Why not bet the Kings: Talent. Sacramento has one all-around solid NBA player in DeMarcus Cousins. But his attitude sucks. Tyreke Evans has regressed after showing so much promise early on. Other than those two guys, the Kings don’t have much else. Head coach Keith Smart will have to work some magic for Sacramento to be competitive.

Season win total pick: Under 29.5

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 30

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WASHINGTON (20 - 46) at CLEVELAND (21 - 45) - 10/30/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (50 - 36) at MIAMI (62 - 27) - 10/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 10-10 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (36 - 34) at LA LAKERS (46 - 32) - 10/30/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 264-209 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NBA

Tuesday, October 30

Trend Report

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CLEVELAND
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Washington

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. MIAMI
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Boston

10:30 PM
DALLAS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas

JOE WIZ

In the NBA take Washington +7 over Cleveland

Jimmy Boyd

****Celtics/Heat NBA Season-opening *BEST BET* (TNT)!
Boston Celtics +6.5

Info Plays

7* Dallas Mavericks +8½

Paul Leiner

50* Lakers -8.5

5 Lines

Kelso 50 unit - Cavs -5.5