Service Plays Wednesday 10/31/12

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GL!

NBA

Obviously, no one is hot/cold right now; these are LY's numbers......

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won 11 of last 18 games. Nuggets won 11 of their last 17.
-- Hornets won six of their last nine games.
-- Bulls covered six of their last eight home games.
-- Grizzlies are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost their last three games LY, allowing 107 ppg. Raptors lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Pistons lost eight of their last 12 games. Houston lost seven of nine.
-- Spurs lost last four games in playoffs LY, after having won previous 20 games in a row before that.
-- Kings lost seven of last ten games, but covered last three.
-- Mavericks lost their last six games LY, but beat the Lakers easily last night. Jazz got swept in playoffs LY, 4-0 by the Spurs.
-- Warriors lost 10 of their last 11 games. Suns lost four of five.
-- Clippers lost six of their last seven games LY.
-- Lakers are vastly different team now, but they're 7-11 in last 18 games that counted. If you count exhibition games, Lakers are 0-9 this season. Portland lost its last seven games.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Philly's last ten home games.
-- 12 of last 15 Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of Spurs' last five games went over total.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games went over.
-- Last six Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Golden State games.
-- Five of last seven Clipper games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Portland home games went over total.

Last Year's Series Records
-- Pacers were 3-0 vs Toronto LY, with all three wins by five points.
-- Nuggets won here, 108-104 in OT, in only meeting LY.
-- Pistons lost 97-80 at Houston in LY's meeting.
-- Spurs were 4-0 vs New Orleans LY, winning by 2-3 points here.
-- Bulls beat Sacramento twice LY, by 10-6 points.
-- Dallas won three of four vs Jazz LY, with two games in Utah decided by total of five points.
-- Warriors won two of three against Phoenix LY.
-- Clippers beat Memphis in seven games in playoffs last spring.
-- Home side won all three Laker-Portland games LY; LA lost 107-96 in their only visit here.

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]San Antonio at New Orleans[/h] The Hornets look to build on their 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 home games. New Orleans is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by just 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7). Here are all of today's picks

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 932-687 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Bonus Play WED: SA Spurs -6

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NBA HOUSTON at DETROIT

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points poor pressure defensive team from last season - forced <=14 turnovers/game.
176-104 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.9% 61.6 units )

NBA SAN ANTONIO at NEW ORLEANS

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, vs. division opponents.
33-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.7% 21.6 units )

NBA GOLDEN STATE at PHOENIX

Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (GOLDEN STATE) vs. division opponents, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 7+ losses in last 8 games.
23-5 since 1997. ( 82.1% 17.5 units )

Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

The NBA is back to its 82-game format Tuesday night when three games open the 2012-13 season. Before teams tipoff, take a quick look at our NBA betting news and notes for the upcoming schedule:

A look back

Best ATS team 2011-12: San Antonio Spurs - 42-20-4 ATS
Worst ATS team 2011-12: Charlotte Bobcats - 23-43-0 ATS
Best over team 2011-12: San Antonio/Milwaukee - 39-26-1 over/under
Best under team 2011-12: Memphis/Phoenix – 26-40-0 over/under

Win totals

A good gauge of a team on the rise – or decline – is looking at how they stacked up against expectations last season. Take a look at the teams that topped and flopped when it came to their season win totals in 2011-12:

Toppers

San Antonio Spurs – Season win total 41.5/Win total 50
Utah Jazz – Season win total 27.5/Win total 36
Indiana Pacers – Season win total 36.5/Win total 42
Toronto Raptors – Season win total 16.5/Win total 22

Floppers

Charlotte Bobcats – Season win total 17.5/Win total 7
Dallas Mavericks – Season win total 43.5/Win total 36
Golden State Warriors – Season win total 30.5/Win total 23
Portland Trail Blazers – Season win total 37.5/Win total 28

Benches

Plenty of times, your wager doesn’t come down to the superstars but the guys in between. Here are the best and worst benches from last season, with help from hoopsstats.com:

Best benches

San Antonio Spurs - +12.6 Efficiency Difference
Denver Nuggets - +11.7
Milwaukee Bucks - +11.0

Worst benches

Orlando Magic - -11.4 Efficiency Difference
Sacramento Kings - -11.2
Los Angeles Lakers - -9.4

Key injuries

The NBA season hasn't even begun and already some of the league's top players are watching from the sidelines:

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks - Out until mid November after undergoing minor knee surgery.
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves - Out until early December after breaking his hand.
Amar'e Stoudemire, New York Knicks - Out until mid December after suffering a ruptured cyst in his knee.
Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls - Out indefinitely while recovering from a torn ALC suffered last postseason.
Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics - Out indefinitely after offseason shoulder surgery.
Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors - Out indefinitely after offseason ankle surgery.
Al Harrington, Orlando Magic - Out indefinitely after offseason knee surgery.
John Wall, Washington Wizards - Out first month with a stress injury in his left knee.

Capping the refs

Best over refs (2011-12 over/under)

Pat Fraher 43-29 over/under
Josh Tiven 34-24 over/under
Sean Wright 39-30 over/under

Best under refs (2011-12 over/under)

Rodney Mott 28-46 over/under
Scott Wall 21-38 over/under
Bill Spooner 27-44 over/under

Making moves

Unlike most other sports, one player can have a huge impact on how a team fares SU as well as ATS. Here are some notable player moves and their possible impact on how teams play this season:

Los Angeles Lakers – Dwight Howard, Steve Nash, Antawn Jamison

Los Angeles swaps a good center for a great center but the key pieces are Nash and Jamison. Nash gives L.A. its first great PG since Magic and Jamison is a cut from the same mold as Lamar Odom, stretching the defense with his scoring inside and out.

Houston Rockets – Jeremy Lin, James Harden

The jury is still out on Lin, but at least he doesn’t have Carmelo Anthony putting the freeze on him in Houston. Harden is another roll of the dice and it will be interesting to see how the once-great sixth man does without Durant and Westbrook freeing up space.

Miami Heat – Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis

In theory, Allen should be able to score 15 points a night in his sleep. With the drive-and-dish coming oh-so easy in South Beach, Jesus has ample room with defenders collapsing on LeBron and Wade. Lewis should see similar benefits from beyond the arc.

Los Angeles Clippers - Lamar Odom, Jamal Crawford, Grant Hill, Ronny Turiaf, Matt Barnes

The Clippers were trying to keep up with the Joneses this offseason, bringing in a few bigger names. Three of those guys are former Lakers, and outside of maybe Odom, none of them will have any impact on L.A.'s odds.

Toronto Raptors – Landry Fields, Kyle Lowry, John Lucas III

Fields’ escape from New York could prove profitable for Raptors backers and Lowry, when healthy, is one of the best all-around players in the league. The addition of Lucas provides a Plan B at point. Toronto also gave itself a shot of energy with draft picks Terrence Ross and Quincy Acy.

Brooklyn Nets - Joe Johnson

The Nets took the scoring load off Deron Williams by acquiring Johnson and resigned some key cogs. However, those players led Brooklyn – formerly New Jersey – to only 22 wins in the shortened season. Haven’t we seen this before with the Miami Marlins this summer - new name, same ole team?

Denver Nuggets - Andre Iguodala

Iguodala becomes the closest thing to a superstar on a team with no superstars. His energy and defense fits the mold of an underrated Denver team.

Philadelphia 76ers – Andrew Bynum, Jason Richardson, Nick Young

Does anyone else get the feeling the Lakers sold the Sixers a lemon? Bynum is a nice piece to have in the paint, especially on defense, but his knees are already an issue. Richardson and Young are two trigger-happy guards that can hurt more than help.

New coaches

Charlotte Bobcats - Mike Dunlap
Orlando Magic - Jacque Vaughn
Portland Trail Blazers - Terry Stotts

CAPPERS ACCESS
Bulls
Warriors

Jimmy Boyd
3* (NBA) Toronto Raptors +2
3* (NBA) New Orleans Hornets +7

Ben Burns 10* NBA Best Bet - Toronto Raptors

I PURCHASED KELSO BASKETBALL FOR THE SEASON WILL POST THEM AS THEY COME

KELSO

15 Units
La Clippers (-3½) over Grizzlies
10:30 PM -- STAPLES Center
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (0-0) -3 ½ over Memphis Grizzlies (0-0) Prediction: Clippers by 8-9 Starting Time: 10:35 TV: Sports South, Fox Prime Ticket Comments: This is the best Clippers team in years and I look for them to pick right up where they left off last season when they went 40-26 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2005-06. They are more experienced this season, have one of the deepest benches in the NBA and tonight take on a Memphis team they knocked out of the playoffs last season, 4-3—a Memphis team that is 0-11 in its last 11 season openers. But there is more to this game that that—something that is hidden below the surface. The Clippers have been in the Los Angeles Lakers’ shadow for many years, although both sell out all their games, and will be super-charged tonight to do something the latter did not do in their opener—look good and win. The Lakers went 0-8 in the NBA pre-season and looked absolutely awful last night in losing to the rebuilding, injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks, 99-91. It’s the Clippers night to shine and take a step forward.

5 Units
Spurs/Hornets UNDER 187½ Points
8:00 PM -- New Orleans Arena
San Antonio Spurs-NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (0-0) Under 187 ½ Points Prediction: 182 or less will be scored Starting Time: 8:05 TV: NBA Network Comments: The biggest early moves of the day were on the “under” in this game and the offshore books reported it was all sharp money, from the wiseguys. I think they are right, my figures say they are right and I will ride this bandwagon.

GC: NBA Play

On Halloween Night its a Huge Opening Game 93% Power System Winner. This Tremendous System Wins year in and Year out for Us. Congrats to those with Us last night as we Picked up where we Left Off Cashing Big With Dallas an 8 point OUTRIGHT Dog Winner. Free NBA Play below.

On Halloween Wednesday the Free NBA Play is on the Denver Nuggets. Game 703 at 7:05 eastern. Denver travels East to Philly tonight to take on the Sixers. In this series the host team has failed to cover 11 of the last 13 times in the series between these two. Denver has been a spread winner in 6 of the last 7 here. The Nuggets have covered in 32 of the last 48 vs Non Conference teams. With Philadelphia among many of the Northeastern States still recovering from Hurricane Sandy, there may not be too big a home crowd in this one. Look for Denver to get the cash here. On Wednesday we have another Opening Game System side. This one has Cashed 93% long term. We opened the season with a nice win last night cashing with Dallas a solid dog winner. Jump on and get a Treat on Halloween Night. GC

Anyone got Al Demarco? TIA!!

Anyone got Lee Earnest yet this year? I never heard anything about him last night? Thanx!

Trace Adams


500♦
Home Chalk
Opening Night Lock


Philadelphia 76ers -1.5