NFL Monday, 10/29/2012

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On Sunday I finished 1-1 ATS with my final plays. The bye week plays that I posted were 4-3 ATS. There were 2 teams that fit multiple bye week trends (Miami, Denver) and those plays finished 2-0 ATS.

The Monday Night Football game tonight fits the best bye week trend this season. "Teams prior to the bye are 3-12 straight up and 1-14 against the spread".


Teams ATS--Game Prior to Bye Week This Season: 3-12 SU, 1-14 ATS
FADE: San Francisco 49ers
PLAY: Arizona Cardinals +7, -110
PLAY: Arizona Cardinals ML, +265
 

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Careful. This isn't exactly a regular bye week for San Fran. They just had a mini-bye. I think tonight's play is San Fran or pass.
 
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Careful. This isn't exactly a regular bye week for San Fran. They just had a mini-bye. I think tonight's play is San Fran or pass.
True, the 49ers played a very physical game last Thursday which gave them a few extra days of rest. I still like the pre bye week wagering angle. This trend really has nothing to do with the rest a team has prior to their next game it's more of a teams mental state and performance this season in the game immediately prior to their bye week. BOL tonight.
 
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On Sunday I finished 1-1 ATS with my final plays. The bye week plays that I posted were 4-3 ATS. There were 2 teams that fit multiple bye week trends (Miami, Denver) and those plays finished 2-0 ATS.

The Monday Night Football game tonight fits the best bye week trend this season. "Teams prior to the bye are 3-12 straight up and 1-14 against the spread".


Teams ATS--Game Prior to Bye Week This Season: 3-12 SU, 1-14 ATS
FADE: San Francisco 49ers
PLAY: Arizona Cardinals +7, -110
PLAY: Arizona Cardinals ML, +265

In addition, teams in this scenario on the road in the game prior to their bye week are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and road favorites in this scenario in the game prior to their bye week are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS this season.
 

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Do you know how many trends were broken this past weekend? The AFC fav vs the NFC was 9-1 ATS going into week 8 & lost all 3 games.

The NFC dog trends is free falling as well & this trend might fall tonight.
 
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trends during the season are completely useless in my opinion. Need to dig deeper
 
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Do you know how many trends were broken this past weekend? The AFC fav vs the NFC was 9-1 ATS going into week 8 & lost all 3 games.

The NFC dog trends is free falling as well & this trend might fall tonight.
Yup, I am aware of that. Most trends don't mean to much without a large sample size really, but this one is a good one to follow. This trend, IMO, is a little stronger on the surface than a Conference vs Conference trend.
 
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trends during the season are completely useless in my opinion. Need to dig deeper
I would tend to agree for the most part as I stated in post #7. Really, can't argue with 1-14 ATS with a trend of how teams perform knowing they have a week off in the comming days.
 
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Really? Your fourth thread of the week? Didn't you say you were planning on keeping everything in one thread (Not to mention doing it in the Tracker Forum)? Or was that five threads ago and I missed a new announcement?


NFL Week #8 Picks

All lines are from 5dimes at the time of posting.

All picks are valued to WIN 1 unit each. 1 unit=$100)

If you tail any picks below please don't play a higher pointspread on the favorites or a lower pointspread on the underdogs than I have listed below.

I have not made a wagering decision on the Jacksonville @ Green Bay matchup at this point and I won't until their is a consistent line posted. If I make a pick on the game I will add it later in the week.


10/25/2012 8:25 PM NFL Football 104 Minnesota Vikings -6½ -110 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 unit - 110/100
10/28/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 220 St. Louis Rams +7½ -140 vs New England Patriots 1 unit - 140/100
10/28/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 233 Carolina Panthers +8.5 -120 @ Chicago Bears 1 unit - 120/100
10/29/2012 8:40 PM NFL Football 243 San Francisco 49ers -6½ -110 @ Arizona Cardinals 1 unit - 110/100.


Oh, and let's not forget that horrendous Vikings bet on Thursday Night. ONE WEEK after he promised he'd keep an accurate record, he's already leaving out a game from THIS WEEK off his record. Incredible.

And wait a minute, YOU'RE TAKING TWO SIDES OF A BET? AGAIN???? Hey buddy, you can't bet both sides of a football game. That's a guaranteed loss of money. Then again, you've already done it twice this year so I guess it might be a solid strategy I'm missing out on, in terms of fooling readers.

Betall?
 
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I wouldn't blindly play any single trend. I am just putting the info out there for everyone to use in their handicapping.

If you look back the last 10 years, teams the week before a bye are 213-185 straight up and 209-183-6 ATS, a win rate of 53.3 percent. So, in reality, you would have actually turned a profit over the last decade by backing teams the week before a bye, albeit a fairly small one. Treat every game on a case-by-case basis and don’t blindly follow one particular trend. Each team and situation isn’t created equally. Some teams are looking forward to a bye (bad teams looking to regroup or get healthy), others don’t want it (why disrupt a hot streak?), and there are numerous other variables (some motivational) that need to be considered.
 
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The bye week plays that I posted were 4-3 ATS.

2012-2013 Bye Week Trends for Sunday, 10/28/2012
*I am providing this information for everyone to do with as they wish. I don't have any official plays regarding these trends I am just providing you with the information.*

Teams ATS--Game Before Bye Week This Season: 1-13 ATS (Rams/Patriots eliminated due to their H2H matchup)
FADE: New York Jets
PLAY: Miami Dolphins +2, -110

Teams ATS--Game After Bye Week This Season: 8-2 ATS (Falcons/Eagles eliminated due to their H2H matchup)
PLAY: Kansas City Chiefs -1, -110
PLAY: Miami Dolphins +2, -110
PLAY: Denver Broncos -6.5, -110
PLAY: San Diego Chargers -2.5, -125

Team ATS--Second Game After Bye Week This Season: 1-5 ATS (Panthers/Bears eliminated due to their H2H matchup)
FADE: New Orleans Saints
PLAY: Denver Broncos -6.5, -110
FADE: Jacksonville Jaguars
PLAY: Green Bay Packers -14.5, -110



And wait a minute, you counted the Dolphins and Broncos as TWO SEPARATE WINS EACH? HUH?

Actually, retard, you were 2-3 with those plays. Another losing record, something you have quite the reputation for.

Betall? I believe it's finally time
 
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Anyways, most trends that are hot or cold for a short period of time usually progress back to 50/50 at somepoint. I am not a big trend follower but it's just one of many tools we as handicappers can use on a weekly basis in the NFL.
 

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This thread smells of tout.
 
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2012-2013 NFL OVERALL RECORD: 16-10

Week #1 through Week #7 (Prior Record From Threads Listed In Post #1): 16-10

Week #8 through Week #17: 0-0

Post Season (Playoffs through Superbowl): 0-0


NFL Week #8 Picks

All lines are from 5Dimes at the time of posting.

All picks are valued to WIN 1 unit each. 1 unit=$100)

If you tail any picks below please don't play a higher pointspread on the favorites or a lower pointspread on the underdogs than I have listed below.

I have not made a wagering decision on the Jacksonville @ Green Bay matchup at this point and I won't until their is a consistent line posted. If I make a pick on the game I will add it later in the week.


10/25/2012 8:25 PM NFL Football 104 Minnesota Vikings -6½ -110 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 unit - 110/100
10/28/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 220 St. Louis Rams +7½ -140 vs New England Patriots 1 unit - 140/100
10/28/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 233 Carolina Panthers +8.5 -120 @ Chicago Bears 1 unit - 120/100
10/29/2012 8:40 PM NFL Football 243 San Francisco 49ers -6½ -110 @ Arizona Cardinals 1 unit - 110/100

FINAL CARD

BOL to everyone this week!

My final card for week #8 is listed in post #2 of this thread. BOL this weekend.


So what exactly does it mean when you capitalize your statements? And what does "FINAL CARD" mean to you?

Since you already also locked in that $110 for $100 bet on San Francisco, I guess you've already won this game with both sides... AGAIN.
 
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FYI: The under is also a pretty good wager tonight if anyone would rather play the total in tonights game. My numbers have this matchup with a total of 34.5 which would be a lean to under the current total line of 38.

As I mentioned above I would not recommend playing Arizona based SOLELY on the bye week trend that I posted but rather it's a good tool to use in your handicapping. We can never have enough information on any given game and every tool that we have is valuable.

BOL tonight.
 
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You know What... Even on my Day off I see all of your BS !!

Reporting posts that have Called you Out ! and you want us to remove them ??

I'm tired of you posting more than One thread Each and EVERY week. Trend Plays, Fade Plays, this Play and That Play.... Posting AGAIN... BOTH SIDES of a Game !

Tout Talk is 10000000000000000000000% Right ! You are DONE !

Enjoy your time in the Site Promotions Forum where you Started, and Belong.
 

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