[h=1]Handicapping the WSOP final table[/h][h=3]Which poker player is the best bet at the WSOP final table?
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
[/h]Editor's note: The WSOP main event final table will be broadcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. Monday.
LAS VEGAS -- Jesse Sylvia is the chip leader heading into the main event final table on Monday, but is he the best bet?
Wait, what? There's betting on the World Series of Poker?
In a word: Yes!
Sylvia, one of eight U.S. residents in the October Nine, opened as the 3-2 favorite after the final table was determined back at the Rio Hotel & Casino back in July as he has about 43.9 million of the nearly 198 million in chips in play. Another American, Greg Merson, opened as the second betting choice at 5-2 despite being third in chips with 28.7 million, just behind Andras Koroknai of Hungary, who has just more than 29 million in chips and opened as the 3-1 third choice.
Players at the World Series of Poker's Main Event final table have always had cheering sections: family members who fly in to watch the action; friends who came to play with them and stayed to cheer from the rail; partners/sponsors; and regular fans, if the player became famous enough.
<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->[h=4]Odds to win 2012 WSOP Main Event final table[/h]
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<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->But last year we added other people with a rooting (and vested) interest.
<offer>Legal betting on the final table was allowed by the state for the first time last year (note: there's a whole other story to be written about illegal betting during the history of the WSOP, but we'll save that for another day). Nevada previously prohibited betting on non-sports events that are not decided on a playing field (such as MVP awards, Heisman Trophy, Academy Awards, elections, etc.), but in early 2011 the rules were loosened to allow such wagers as long as licensed sports books applied to the state's Gaming Control Board for approval.
The World Series of Poker was the first such event that Caesars Entertainment, which hosts the WSOP at the Rio, and other sports books sought and received permission to book.
Martin Staszko of the Czech Republic was the chip leader heading to the final table with more than 40 million in chips and was made the 5-2 favorite, but the world champion ended up being Pius Heinz of Germany, who had the third smallest stack entering the final table with just 16 million, and was the third longest shot on the board at 10-1 at books around town. He closed at 5-1 at the Rio by the time the final table began.
Last year, the Rio also offered props on the number of hands at the final table, the winning hand, etc., but Howard Greenbaum, vice president of specialty gaming at Caesars Entertainment, said those bets didn't attract too much interest so they just went with the more popular odds to win this year (see inline on the right). In fact, the Rio also offered final table odds at events throughout the World Series of Poker.
"For years, people were told they couldn't bet on the World Series of Poker, so the first challenge was getting people to know it was available both last year and this year," Greenbaum said. "It started slow, but by the end, if we didn't have odds up by 10 a.m., we'd hear about it."
Greenbaum said he raised the odds on the chip leaders as they weren't getting action. Heading into this weekend, Sylvia was still the favorite at 2-1, with Merson raised to 3-1 and Koroknai raised to 4-1. Another player at 4-1 is Robert Salaburu, who opened at 7-1 and has the third smallest chip stack (just like Heinz last year). Greenbaum said they've taken 10 bets on Salaburu, so it wasn't just one big bet that lowered the odds. In fact, the Rio limits bets to 500 (for the uninitiated, that means they'll take that bet and then determine if they're going to adjust the odds before letting the customer bet again).
"The opening odds are mostly set in regards to the chip counts, but now they're based as much if not more on the money we've seen bet," said Greenbaum, who said that 90 percent of the wagers they take will be done in the 48 hours before the final table starts.
Jeremy Ausmus is the short stack with 9.8 million and opened as the longest shot on the board at 11-1, but he has seen some support as he was down to 9-1 heading into the weekend. Russell Thomas (raised from 4-1 to 5-1), Steven Gee (raised from 6-1 to 7-1), Michael Esposito (also raised from 6-1 to 7-1) and Jacob Balsiger (raised from 8-1 to 9-1) have all seen their odds adjusted higher. We'll see if any of them get re-raised (I couldn't resist the poker joke).
Tuley's take: This is considered one of the most wide-open Main Event final tables in history. All of the players are relative unknowns as opposed to recent years, when Phil Ivey made the final table in 2010 and when Ben Lamb was 2011 WSOP Player of the Year (note: I thought he was the value play at last year's final table despite being in the middle of the pack, so take all this with a grain of salt). But the biggest name doesn't always win, as we saw even before Chris Moneymaker's win in 2003. Clearly, having made it all the way to the final table, they all have a shot and I wouldn't talk anyone out of a bet they were looking to make.
After watching them all play and looking at their chip stacks in relation to their odds, I have to go with Steven Gee at 7-1 as the value play on the board. No knock on the young guns, but at 57, Gee has been a professional poker player longer than most of the other players have been alive. As another guy in middle age, I have to believe experience still counts for something. Enjoy the final table, whether you have a bet on it or not.
The pick: Steven Gee
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By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Jesse Sylvia is the chip leader heading into the main event final table on Monday, but is he the best bet?
Wait, what? There's betting on the World Series of Poker?
In a word: Yes!
Sylvia, one of eight U.S. residents in the October Nine, opened as the 3-2 favorite after the final table was determined back at the Rio Hotel & Casino back in July as he has about 43.9 million of the nearly 198 million in chips in play. Another American, Greg Merson, opened as the second betting choice at 5-2 despite being third in chips with 28.7 million, just behind Andras Koroknai of Hungary, who has just more than 29 million in chips and opened as the 3-1 third choice.
Players at the World Series of Poker's Main Event final table have always had cheering sections: family members who fly in to watch the action; friends who came to play with them and stayed to cheer from the rail; partners/sponsors; and regular fans, if the player became famous enough.
<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->[h=4]Odds to win 2012 WSOP Main Event final table[/h]
| Name (Country) | Open | Current | Chip Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Sylvia (USA) | 3-2 | 2-1 | 43,875,000 |
| Greg Merson (USA) | 5-2 | 3-1 | 29,375,000 |
| Andras Koroknai (Hungary) | 3-1 | 4-1 | 29,375,000 |
| Russell Thomas (USA) | 4-1 | 5-1 | 24,800,000 |
| Steven Gee (USA) | 6-1 | 7-1 | 16,860,000 |
| Michael Esposito (USA) | 6-1 | 7-1 | 16,260,000 |
| Robert Salaburu (USA) | 7-1 | 4-1 | 15,155,000 |
| Jacob Balsiger (USA) | 8-1 | 9-1 | 13,115,000 |
| Jeremy Ausmus (USA) | 11-1 | 9-1 | 9,805,000 |
| Notes: Odds subject to change. All bets are action (no refunds, even if player does not play). Wagering closes at 4:30 p.m. PDT on Monday, Oct. 29. |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->But last year we added other people with a rooting (and vested) interest.
<offer>Legal betting on the final table was allowed by the state for the first time last year (note: there's a whole other story to be written about illegal betting during the history of the WSOP, but we'll save that for another day). Nevada previously prohibited betting on non-sports events that are not decided on a playing field (such as MVP awards, Heisman Trophy, Academy Awards, elections, etc.), but in early 2011 the rules were loosened to allow such wagers as long as licensed sports books applied to the state's Gaming Control Board for approval.
The World Series of Poker was the first such event that Caesars Entertainment, which hosts the WSOP at the Rio, and other sports books sought and received permission to book.
Martin Staszko of the Czech Republic was the chip leader heading to the final table with more than 40 million in chips and was made the 5-2 favorite, but the world champion ended up being Pius Heinz of Germany, who had the third smallest stack entering the final table with just 16 million, and was the third longest shot on the board at 10-1 at books around town. He closed at 5-1 at the Rio by the time the final table began.
Last year, the Rio also offered props on the number of hands at the final table, the winning hand, etc., but Howard Greenbaum, vice president of specialty gaming at Caesars Entertainment, said those bets didn't attract too much interest so they just went with the more popular odds to win this year (see inline on the right). In fact, the Rio also offered final table odds at events throughout the World Series of Poker.
"For years, people were told they couldn't bet on the World Series of Poker, so the first challenge was getting people to know it was available both last year and this year," Greenbaum said. "It started slow, but by the end, if we didn't have odds up by 10 a.m., we'd hear about it."
Greenbaum said he raised the odds on the chip leaders as they weren't getting action. Heading into this weekend, Sylvia was still the favorite at 2-1, with Merson raised to 3-1 and Koroknai raised to 4-1. Another player at 4-1 is Robert Salaburu, who opened at 7-1 and has the third smallest chip stack (just like Heinz last year). Greenbaum said they've taken 10 bets on Salaburu, so it wasn't just one big bet that lowered the odds. In fact, the Rio limits bets to 500 (for the uninitiated, that means they'll take that bet and then determine if they're going to adjust the odds before letting the customer bet again).
"The opening odds are mostly set in regards to the chip counts, but now they're based as much if not more on the money we've seen bet," said Greenbaum, who said that 90 percent of the wagers they take will be done in the 48 hours before the final table starts.
Jeremy Ausmus is the short stack with 9.8 million and opened as the longest shot on the board at 11-1, but he has seen some support as he was down to 9-1 heading into the weekend. Russell Thomas (raised from 4-1 to 5-1), Steven Gee (raised from 6-1 to 7-1), Michael Esposito (also raised from 6-1 to 7-1) and Jacob Balsiger (raised from 8-1 to 9-1) have all seen their odds adjusted higher. We'll see if any of them get re-raised (I couldn't resist the poker joke).
Tuley's take: This is considered one of the most wide-open Main Event final tables in history. All of the players are relative unknowns as opposed to recent years, when Phil Ivey made the final table in 2010 and when Ben Lamb was 2011 WSOP Player of the Year (note: I thought he was the value play at last year's final table despite being in the middle of the pack, so take all this with a grain of salt). But the biggest name doesn't always win, as we saw even before Chris Moneymaker's win in 2003. Clearly, having made it all the way to the final table, they all have a shot and I wouldn't talk anyone out of a bet they were looking to make.
After watching them all play and looking at their chip stacks in relation to their odds, I have to go with Steven Gee at 7-1 as the value play on the board. No knock on the young guns, but at 57, Gee has been a professional poker player longer than most of the other players have been alive. As another guy in middle age, I have to believe experience still counts for something. Enjoy the final table, whether you have a bet on it or not.
The pick: Steven Gee
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