Exbookie Wants to help the players Week 9

Investment plays 6-6 -$625
Action plays 19-18 -$1273.00
Total 25-24 -$1898.00
Bankroll $75,000.00
now $73,102.00

411 system now 7-4 61%



The Gambler's Fallacy

Beginning gamblers invariably view their expectations on too narrow a scale. They believe that having a 60 percent expectation means they figure to win 6 of their next 10 bets, or 12 of their next 20 bets, or 30 of their next 50 bets, etc.
Sorry but there is not much chance of that actually happening. The laws of probability are not nearly so precise. As a matter of fact, with a 60 percent expectation, you are not likely to win 6 of your next 10 bets at all.
The idea that expectations will be realized over a very short time is known as the Gambler's Fallacy. It is the same fallacy that causes roulette players to believe that red is more apt to win if black has won several times in a row.
That's not so, of course. Roulette wheels have no memory. It's coincidence. The mathematical law that dictates you will eventually win a number of bets commensurate with your expectation is effective only when dealing with very large numbers. In fact, mathematicians no longer refer to "the law of averages," it's now called the "the law of large numbers."
This same fallacy is at work when sports touts 'prove' they are experts by citing winning records, with only a few observations, such as 10-1, 20-5, 30-8, etc. Even without a good reason, such lop-sided results are bound to occur as a matter of happenstance. They are mathematically inevitable. For example, if all your bets had a winning expect ion of precisely 57.5%, you could expect to win between 48 and 7 of your next 100 bets - a variance from expectation of plus-or-minus 10 percent.
By comparison, you figure to win between 545 and 605 of your next 1,000 bets, which is a variance of only plus or minus 3 percent.
As for your next 10 bets ?...........It's a crapshoot.
It quickly becomes obvious that using past results as proof of future expectations requires having plenty of past results.

The Ping-Pong Balls

It may help to picture this: Let's say a crate of 10,000 Ping-Pong balls falls off a truck in front of your car on the freeway. The box contains 6,000 white Ping-Pong balls and 4,000 yellow Ping-Pong balls, randomly mixed.
The box shatters in front of your car, sending all 10,000 balls bouncing randomly onto the freeway. Let's say you happen to run over and smash exactly ten of those balls. How many white balls do you figure to smash?
The most likely number is six, of course, since 60 percent of the balls are white. But wait - that is only the most likely event of several other very likely events. You are only slightly less likely to smash five white balls, or seven white balls, and only slightly less likely than that to smash four white ones, or eight white ones, etc.....You are restricted to only eleven different possible events:
0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10
If you add up all the changes of all the other possible outcomes, smashing anything BUT six white balls out of ten, you can see you are not likely to smash exactly six white balls at all. Even though you do, indeed, have a 60 percent expectations, you will most likely end up with some other 'smash percentage.'
That's because ten observations, or events, are simply too few observations to expect reliable results. The 'universe' of observations, or events, is too small. This is the principle at the very heart of the Gamble Fallacy, and this is the undoing of many a gambler.
And to complicate the matter, if you do not smash precisely six white balls your 'smash percentage' must be at least 10 percent away - or different - from your expectation. Only eleven different outcomes are possible. The closest you can come to 60 percent, unless you hit it on the nose, is either 50 percent or 70 percent.
....But now let's suppose you smashed 1,000 balls instead of ten....In that case, we have a wholly different proposition. In that case, you can be sure you smashed more white balls than yellow ones, and you can be reasonably sure you smashed between 570 and 630 white balls - somewhere between 57 percent and 63 percent of the 1,000 balls smashed. This is assured because the bigger the universe, the more predictable the outcomes, percentage-wise.
Helping your prediction come true with 1,000 'smashes' instead of only 10 'smashes' is the fact that smash 59.9 percent, or 60.1 percent, or 59.8, 60.2 etc. .....With 1,000 balls smashed, you may fail to get precisely the percentage expected, but you cannot miss it by as much as 10 percent. It's virtually impossible to smash only 500 white balls, or as many as 700 white balls because there are too many events more likely to occur; ---- i.e, smashing 599 balls, or 601, or 598 or 602, etc.
Don't rely on double-digit numbers to produce a true expectations; guarantee yourself that you will stay alive long enough to record triple-digit results. That was, and still is, excellent advice.


my 9 years record at the RX TOTAL.......................580-499 +$179,518.00 54%


more to come

Ace

I hope you aren't counting contest money won in your RX total. That would be misleading.

Bruins4Life said:

I hope you aren't counting contest money won in your RX total. That would be misleading.

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you got me...

let's do the one's that count more...just Investment plays...little higher % TOTAL INVESTMENT.194-142 +$154,496.00 58%

[h=3]YOU CAN WIN WITH PUBIC PLAY...YOU JUST HAVE TO PICK THE BEST ONE


Top NFL Public Bets[/h]

"check out the sheets for week 8 STATFOX IS ONE OF THE BEST"

Do you have these for week 9? I thought they were very helpful.

Thanks

debbiek said:

"check out the sheets for week 8 STATFOX IS ONE OF THE BEST"

Do you have these for week 9? I thought they were very helpful.

Thanks

Click to expand...

I use outplays on the sheet best part ...will post again for week 9

ACE-ACE said:

stat vs ATS


HOME 51
AWAY 67

DOG 70
FAV 48......FAV HAVE ONLY WON ONE WEEK!!

OVER 60
UNDER 58

POINTS THAT MATTER 20 GAMES OUT OF 118

ACE

Click to expand...

Favorites won only one week, maybe thats why you only won one as well, just sayin. How did hoops start out for you?

NBA FANATIC said:

Favorites won only one week, maybe thats why you only won one as well, just sayin. How did hoops start out for you?

Click to expand...

Week 4 +2442
week5 + 1465
week8

that was 3 weeks

debbiek said:

"check out the sheets for week 8 STATFOX IS ONE OF THE BEST"

Do you have these for week 9? I thought they were very helpful.

Thanks

Click to expand...

STATFOX IS DOWN THIS WEEK HOME BASE North Brunswick, New Jersey...and you know what that means

WinningPoints
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?1dlmdw9ipgbelne

Nellys Green Sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?68rsytbv4mi6ipv

PointWise
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?azhzefzx76c8hg4

PlayBook
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?vbr4kvus431ai1g

ProFootballWeekly
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?ugpe2abb9i5h7b1

PowerSweep
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?pw5cb6jmdi9ztpk

Don't Let an Injury Cost You a Win.

thanks ace

Ace, is is there a good site to go to for that injury information?

Mr. Bojangles said:

Ace, is is there a good site to go to for that injury information?

Click to expand...

its free....I have a service that is better SportsOptions...updates within a short time...I check it every day!

Ace Docs is having a field day promoting your 7-0 NFL weekend. Now you have a 411 nfl GOY play Sunday? Lets hope you DON'T have a let down after a perfect last weekend.

How many 411 plays this week?

CrazyK said:

How many 411 plays this week?

Click to expand...

7 plays in all two 411 plays this week

Market Report: What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week Nine


Sharps have been relatively quiet this week in NFL betting heading into tonight’s nationally televised game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. That tells you Las Vegas oddsmakers are doing a better job of posting opening lines (about time!). But, it also tells you that there are games where professional wagerers are lying in wait for better numbers over the weekend. Sometimes early and midweek silence speaks very loudly when it comes to how the sharps bet the NFL.
Let’s run through what the sharps are betting and thinking (based on our discussions with sources) this week. Games are presented in official rotation order.

KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: What most grabbed the attention of sharps was that this one opened in the two-teamer teaser window with a line of San Diego -8.5. That meant you could move the Chargers down past both the seven and the three with a six-point move. Sharps who follow the basic strategy principles have already included the Chargers in their weekend mix. Sportsbooks who prefer not to take teasers have either lifted the Chargers to -9, or dropped the game down to -7. You don’t normally see ranges that wide in an NFL game…but different offshore places have different views on teasers! In terms of the game, sharps weren’t fond of either team at the opening price…and don’t really trust San Diego as a favorite right now nor Kansas City to compete hard with anyone. Sharps will fade any game day move from the public. The Wise Guys did move the total down from 43.5 to 42.5 with an Under play involving two struggling offenses in a divisional showdown.

DENVER at CINCINNATI: No interest yet in this one on the opening line of Denver -3.5. As we’ve said in the past…if a game opens a half point away from a critical number…then DOESN’T move…you can determine sharp intent very easily. If sharps liked the dog, they would have bet immediately because the number three is so common. They didn’t do that…which tells you they prefer the favorite. There’s no reason to bet right away with a line like -3.5. This will either be a pass for sharps or a play on the favorite before kickoff. The market has been giving Peyton Manning respect in recent weeks, and rightly so. At the very least, you learn from this game that sharps are sold on Denver as a legitimate AFC power right now, and are convinced that Cincinnati is a non-threat this year even though they made the playoffs last season.

ARIZONA AT GREEN BAY: Another game that hasn’t budged off its opening number. Sharps hit Green Bay hard last Sunday against a Jacksonville team that should have been overmatched. The Packers played so poorly that they almost lost the game outright! Sharps didn’t want to go back to the well again with a double digit home favorite. Arizona’ defense is better than Jacksonville’s, and has a double digit road upset at New England on its resume. Of course, Arizona looked so bad this past Monday against NFC power San Francisco that it’s hard to like them vs. another NFC power like Green Bay. Our sources tell us sharps will take the dog on game day if the public drives the favorite higher.

MIAMI AT INDIANAPOLIS: Interesting game here matching two up-and-comers in the AFC. Both have rookie quarterbacks. Both have a chance to make the playoffs anyway because they play in weak divisions and have found a way to win some early games. Sharps have made it clear in recent weeks that they don’t see these teams as even though. Oddsmakers read that right, and opened Miami at -2 even though they were on the road. That would suggest Miami is FIVE points better on a neutral field. Some sharps hit Miami anyway! We’re seeing -2.5 in most places now…with an understanding that Indianapolis home dog money would come in were the game to move to three. Indianapolis does qualify for basic strategy teaser play at the current line…taking them as a dog up to +8.5. The lessons here are that the market as a whole sees Miami as the clearly superior team now and moving forward…but percentage histories would have some sharps on Indy +3 and in two-team teasers as the home dog.

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: We have a big move here even though it was only half a point! Sharps bet Baltimore -3 on the opener, driving the line to -3.5. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of money to move off a three…and then you know support for the favorite is strong if the game doesn’t buggywhip right back to the key number. This game moved to -3.5 and stayed there. The sharps don’t like Cleveland here as the lesser of the two teams dealing with a well-rested divisional visitor. Byes have been getting respect for the better teams this year, and the Ravens are off a bye. Maybe it’s best to say that the sharps love the potential bye boost in this spot rather than the favorite. Baltimore was a team badly in need of a break given their prior injury situation and recent form.

BUFFALO AT HOUSTON: Interesting here that we have a move toward the dog. Houston opened at -11 and dropped down to -10.5. Buffalo does have garbage time capabilities…and sharps do pay attention to quarterback quality at double digit spreads. We’ve told you in the past that some sharps bet all double digit dogs just on principal. That segment wasn’t active with Arizona in Green Bay with the short preparation week for the Cards, but did step in here enough to move the line a tick. We’re hearing that Houston money would come in at -10…but there’s skepticism the line would move that low. We’re not mentioning many totals because they’ve been quiet this week. The number here did fall from 48.5 to 47.5 with some early Under money. The fact that we DIDN’T see Under interest in Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Cleveland is a virtual weather report for those cities this weekend. Totals plummeted in the Midwest last week when weather was forecast to be a big influence (and early bettors showed a profit with that approach).

CAROLINA AT WASHINGTON: We probably have a weekend tug-of-war spot set up there just above the key number of three. Washington opened at -3.5, and nobody bet them. Some sharps did play the dog…and there’s been enough interest in the dog that some stores are have changed the juice, or dropped the number to three with extra juice on the favorite. These teams seem evenly matched in a lot of ways, and both have young star quarterbacks. Home field is worth three points, and Washington has been in slightly better form this year. Ergo…Carolina +3.5 and Washington -3 are both sharp plays because the chances of the game landing exactly on three are pretty good.

DETROIT AT JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars impressed enough sharps that the opening line here of Detroit -4 has fallen to -3.5. Detroit has struggled to play past expectations this season, turning most games into a thriller. You want the dog in thrillers! We do hear that sharps would hit Detroit if the game were to drop to the key number of three…unless a game day forecast of rain became a weather equalizer. Jacksonville becomes a more appealing play in the muck. Detroit is more dangerous in great conditions.

CHICAGO AT TENNESSEE: A full point move is rare this week, but we’ve had that in this matchup. Chicago opened at -4.5 and was bet down to -3.5. The Bears were lucky to win last week vs. Carolina, and didn’t sparkle offensively the week before against Detroit. Tennessee did shock Pittsburgh on this field recently. Our sources tell us that those skeptical about the Bears have already bet. Those who still believe in both the Bears and the general NFC dominance of the AFC this year are waiting to see if the line drops further. They’d rather lay the three and are waiting to see if they get it.

MINNESOTA AT SEATTLE: Clear support for Seattle here. The opener of -4 has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. Given the general serenity of the markets this week, that seems like a thunderbolt! Sharps are telling us they don’t think Christian Ponder is likely to have a good game on the road against this strong Seattle defense given his recent struggles. This would have been a bigger play but the Vikings do have a few extra days of preparation time after playing a Thursday Nighter.

TAMPA BAY AT OAKLAND: This will be the final game near the teaser window this week. Oakland opened at -1.5 and has stayed there in most places. That puts Tampa Bay (+) in the teaser window moving them up past the three and the seven. Some stores have moved the game line to Oakland -1 to avoid taking teaser bets. We are hearing some newfound respect for Tampa Bay from sharps after their win in Minnesota. They’re saving their investments for games that involve better prices and don’t involve cross-country trips.

PITTSBURGH AT NY GIANTS: The showcase game of the afternoon will be a tug-of-war game where the home favorite Giants will draw money at -3, but the respected road underdog Pittsburgh will be attractive at +3.5. The opener was Giants -3.5 and the tug started right away at least with vigorish. This will be the most bet game of the afternoon…and sportsbooks will be furious if the final score lands exactly on Giants by three.

DALLAS AT ATLANTA: There are a lot of games in the 4-5-6 nether regions this week, between the key numbers of three and seven, and not near the teaser window. Atlanta opened at -4.5, but has been bet down to -4. Stat guys who believe turnovers regress to the mean are enthusiastic about Dallas posting some results in the coming weeks. The Cowboys have playoff caliber raw stats but a horrible turnover differential. Sharps who think Tony Romo is a turnover machine aren’t betting the Cowboys.

PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS: Looks like we’ll finish the week Monday Night with another tug-of-war game. Sharps are generally skeptical of both teams right now…as each has consistently underachieved expectations thus far in 2012. But, it’s not hard for an experienced sharp who’s been through the ringer a few times that Michael Vick +3.5 against a bad defense deserves some consideration…as does Drew Brees -3 at home on a fast track vs. a slumping opponent. For now, there’s more Vick interest than Brees interest because sharps generally shade their passions toward the underdog. The public will likely take New Orleans at -3 on game day…setting up another tug-of-war that sees sportsbooks praying the game doesn’t land exactly on the magic number.

foot note...MYSELF....HMM..TO BE TRUE TO A SYSTEM YOU MUST FOLLOW THE RULES!!!!...THIS MAKES ME SO MAD TO SEE SOMEONE THAT KNOW THE RULES ....NOT TO FOLLOW THEM

i STILL SEE THE ## SYSTEM NUMBERS....NO WAY NYG IS A PLAY....JUST NOT TRUE...ANOTHER ONE IF YOU DIG DEEP IS NOT A PLAY ALSO!!!...THAT ONE i'M ON THE OTHER SIDE AND NYG IS DIE LOCK.

I KNOW MOST OF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. BUT IT MAKES ME SICK THINKING ABOUT IT.....ALL THAT TIME....WASTED!!!....SAD....... DAD YOU KNOW WHAT I'M SAYING.