Service Plays Saturday 11/3/12

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GL!

THE GOLDSHEET

MIAMI 111 - Denver 98—Miami lost focus at times last season, but doubt this
is going to be one of those occasions vs. a Denver squad that humbled Heat by
13 at Pepsi Center last term. Assuming that prompts proper intensity from the
champs, enormous pressure will be put upon the Nugget defense, which often
struggles anyway. Heat proved pretty reliable as intermediate-range home chalk
last season (10-5 laying single digits at AA Arena), with concentration more likely
to wane vs. lesser foes. Unfortunately for higher-profile Denver, that doesn’t
apply.

DALLAS 100 - Charlotte 93—Has Charlotte really improved since last
season? And can Dallas handle a hefty impost like this without Dirk Nowitzki?
Remember, even with Big Dirk pouring in 27 points last season, Mavs couldn’t
get over pointspread hump at home vs. a 7-59 Bobcats entry, struggling to win
by 5. Sources suggesting Charlotte (despite 1-7 preseason) might not be as bad
this season, with some real NBA players (Ben Gordon, Ramon Sessions,
Brendan Haywood), plus a ballyhooed rookie (Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-
Gilchrist) now in the mix.

Alabama 30 - LSU 10—Sure, LSU in big revenge mode following
embarrassing 21-0 whitewash in LY’s BCS title game. But, since Tiger QB
Mettenberger (only 1 TD pass over 40 yds; lowly 12th in SEC in pass efficiency)
hasn’t provided required aerial component to “stretch” ferocious Bama (leads
nation in pass, run, total and scoring defense!), must endorse opportunistic
Tide (+17 TO margin), which has won 14 straight by 19 pts. or more. Bama’s uberefficient
QB A.J. McCarron (69%, 18 TDs, no ints.) attracts more deserved
Heisman talk after facing LSU secondary missing the “Honey Badger.”



KANSAS ST. 36 - Oklahoma St. 16—With impressive victories over
Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas Tech, is there any team that has
demonstrated so well TY its ability to counter spread passing offenses? With
run/pass maestro Collin Klein (16 TDR, 12 TDP) and a takeaway defense (+15
in TOs), the Wildcats have outscored their foes 118-42 in the fourth Q. OSU’s
pocket-passing true frosh Wes Lunt making only his second road start.

Oregon 45 - SOUTHERN CAL 27—With somewhat undisciplined USC
continuing to be plagued by mistakes (5 TOs,13 penalties vs. Arizona), must
support revenge-minded Oregon, able to again rest starters last week in 2nd H of
70-14 trouncing vs. Colorado. Depth-shy Trojan defense, which was unable to
cope with Cats’ well-designed spread option, has even greater worries vs.
Ducks’ warp speed attack (53 ppg), featuring blazing RB Kenjon Barner (974
YR, 14 TDs). Chip Kelly’s national contenders capture nation-leading 13th
straight road win. TV—ABC

JACK CLAYTON

This is a complete mismatch where situations, matchups and motivation come into play.
Oddsmakers aren't paying attention, but Jack Clayton is.

2012 College Game of the Year: Penn State
Don't read too much into Penn State getting beat by undefeated Ohio State Saturday. This is a very good Nittany Lion squad under an outstanding young coach in Bill O'Brien. He was the Patriots offensive coordinator the last two years under Bill Belichick and did a masterful job, and has completely revamped the Penn State offense, one averaging 266 yards passing and 134 rushing, along with 28 ppg. QB Matt McGloin's amazing improvement is the biggest reason Penn State (5-3) was on a five-game winning streak before last week. McGloin wasn't even remotely competent in '11, although he did start in Penn State's post-Paterno win at Ohio State. He is the best quarterback in the Big Ten Conference this season. What coach Bill O'Brien and quarterbacks coach Charlie Fisher have done with McGloin is phenomenal, starting with 14 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He has run for a team-high five touchdowns. Lost in the focus on the offense is the Penn State defense, which is as good as ever allowing 18 ppg (20th in the nation). They take on a lifeless Purdue team playing no defense while losing 4 in a row. Danny Hope has a 19-26 record in four seasons after Purdue after replacing Joe Tiller, Purdue is 3-5 and 0-4 in the Big Ten after Hope said earlier this year this is his most talented team in four years at Purdue. The defense has allowed 44, 38, 29 and 44 points the last four games and Penn State will chew them up. Play Penn State.

Scott Spreitzer

EARLY VALUE DAYTIME SHOCKER!

#371 Mississippi +14 over Georgia

PREDICTION MACHINE

SIDES

414 4:00 PM @ UL-MON UL-LAF -10 - 18.7 - 60.4% PP

316 2:00 PM @ KENT ST. AKRON -19.5 - 27.4 - 58.6% PP

343 4:30 PM COLO ST. @ WYO +8 - -0.2 - 57.8% PP

317 12:00 PM VANDY @ KTY -7 - 11.4 - 57.8% PP

407 3:30 PM FIU @ USA -3.5 - 9.6 - 57.8%

323 3:30 PM BC @ WAKE +3.5 - 5.1 - 57.6%

348 10:30 PM @ ORE ST. ARIST -4.5 - 11.1 - 57.6%

382 12:00 PM @ MINN MICH +12.5 - -7.6 - 57.4%

375 3:00 PM WASH ST. @ UTAH +12 - -6.3 - 57.3%

365 7:00 PM UCONN @ SOFLA +8.5 - -2.4 - 57.3%

328 3:30 PM @ IND IOWA -1.5 - 6.8 - 57.2%

322 12:00 PM @ LOU TEMPLE -15 - 20.0 - 57.2%

TOTALS

342 8:00 PM ALA @ LSU42 - 36.6 Under - 60.4%

336 12:30 PM NM ST. @ AUBURN50.5 - 57.0 Over - 58.9%

304 6:00 PM EAST MI @ OHIO57 - 64.7 Over - 58.4%

316 2:00 PM AKRON @ KENT ST. 58 - 65.4 Over - 58.3%

314 12:00 PM AF @ ARMY 61.5 - 73.0 Over - 58.2%

350 12:00 PM MIZZOU @ FLA42.5 - 38.2 Under - 58.1%

312 3:30 PM PSU @ PURDUE51.5 - 45.7 Under - 57.8%

388 12:00 PM TEX A&M @ MISS ST.59 - 65.3 Over - 57.8%

372 3:30 PM MISS @ UGA63 - 56.6 Under - 57.6%

384 8:00 PM OK ST. @ KAN ST.66 - 75.2 Over - 57.3%

400 10:30 PM ARI @ UCLA 71 - 81.6 Over - 57.3%

Exposing the Top 25: Where The Polls Went Wrong

Each week throughout the college football season, Chris Elliott will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team: Arizona Wildcats (5-3, 5-3 ATS)

The Wildcats pulled out a slim 39-36 upset victory over the USC Trojans at home last week. The Trojans out-gained the Wildcats 618-588 but lost the turnover battle 5-1 which was ultimately their demise. The Wildcats are 0-2 on the road, losing at Oregon and Stanford by a combined score of 103-48.

The team travels to UCLA Sunday where they are 2-4 ATS since 1997. UCLA has been tough at home this season with a record of 3-1. Expect the Bruins to get it done Saturday and push the Wildcats out of the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team: Oregon State Beavers (6-1, 5-2 ATS)

The Oregon State Beavers lost their first game of the season at Washington (4-1 home) last week. They are 3-0 at home, outscoring their opponents 50-20 (10 PPG avg). The team has played tough competition with wins over Wisconsin, UCLA, Arizona and BYU by an average of eight points per game. These four teams have a combined 22-12 record on the season.

Oregon State hosts the ASU Sun Devils Saturday. The Sun Devils have had a relatively easy schedule with home games vs. Oregon and UCLA - their only Division 1-A opponents with winning records. They lost both of those games by a combined 88-64 score. Look for the Beavers to cover the spread in this game easily and move up a couple of spots in the rankings.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Kent State Golden Flashes (7-1, 7-1 ATS)

The Golden Flashes have rattled off six straight victories after an ugly loss at Kentucky. The team hadn't received much notice with five wins in a row against relatively weak competition but certainly opened many eyes with an impressive 35-23 victory at No. 18 Rutgers last weekend.

Kent State will be at home to square off against the Akron Zips Saturday. They are 3-0 at home winning by a combined 127-88. Expect much of the same Saturday as the Golden Flashes blowout the Zips and take one step closer to the Top 25 rankings.

4th Quarter Covers
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games.
Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter last week in college football and in the week 8 NFL games (will be posted on sunday's thread). Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Louisville (-3.5) 34, Cincinnati 31 (53): Cincinnati led by 10 deep into the 3rd quarter but there was great late drama in this Friday night Big East clash. Louisville tied the game early in the 4th quarter and then late in the game the Cardinals connected on a 64-yard pass play for the go-ahead score with less than two minutes to go. While both offenses stalled in the second half, Cincinnati needed just three plays to connect for a touchdown to tie the game, perhaps leaving too much time for Louisville. The Bearcats stood tall on defense, getting a huge sack and then a holding penalty put the Cardinals in a deep hole, forcing overtime. Cincinnati got the ball first but Munchie Legaux threw an interception in the end zone, allowing Louisville to win with any score. The weather conditions were not favorable for kicking but Louisville conservatively kept the ball on the ground and settled for the field goal, giving Cincinnati the narrow underdog cover. The late flurry in the final two minutes also pushed the game 'over' the total.

Boston College (-2.5) 20, Maryland 17 (46): Boston College led 13-0 early in this game, seeking its first ACC win. Maryland stormed back however and the lead was cut to just three points entering the 4th quarter. This line was below three most of the week but did climb to three for a time. Maryland scored on a 66-yard pass play midway through the 4th quarter to grab the lead for the first time in the game but the Eagles eventually had an answer, finding the end zone with less than a minute to go for the win and narrow cover for many.

Colorado State (-6.5) 42, Hawaii 27 (51.5): Colorado State led by seven at halftime but after two Hawaii field goals this was a one-point game entering the 4th quarter. Turnovers were frequent in this game with five turnovers on each side and in the 4th the Rams put the game away with two interceptions returned for touchdowns, getting the win and cover despite being out-gained by over 100 yards.

Michigan State (+5) 16, Wisconsin 13 (40.5): This Big Ten clash featured excellent defense but while Wisconsin did not move the ball effectively, rushing for just 19 net yards in the game, the Badgers seemed in control most of the way. After a scoreless 3rd quarter the Badgers got past the spread to lead 10-3 with about six minutes to go and Michigan State showed no signs of breaking out. With the game on the line however the Spartans came up big on offense with a great drive to tie the game with about a minute to go. In overtime Wisconsin had to settle for a field goal and Michigan State was able to connect for a touchdown and the upset.

North Carolina (-7.5) 43, NC State 35 (54.5): This was a game of streaks as North Carolina stormed out to a 25-7 lead in the 1st quarter. NC State scored the next four touchdowns as North Carolina did not score in the middle two quarters and the underdog Wolfpack took a 35-25 lead into the 4th quarter. The Tar Heels were not done however as they got back within three early in the 4th and then tied the game with just over a minute to go. After a defensive stand NC State was forced to punt and Giovani Bernard returned the kick 74 yards for a game winning touchdown with 13 seconds to go. Incredibly the extra-point try was botched but holder Thomas Hibbard managed to get the ball off to Jack Tabb for a successful conversion, leaving the final margin at 8 and providing one of the worst beats ever if you were on NC State and a very lucky win for those on the Tar Heels.

Houston (-14.5) 45, UTEP 35 (63.5): Houston led this game 45-7 late in the 3rd quarter but the defense certainly let up and the UTEP offense that used three quarterbacks and had four players complete passes found some life. A trick play started the rally as wide receiver Jim Jones tossed a 42-yard touchdown pass late in the 3rd quarter to cut the margin to 31 points, still more than double the spread. UTEP would go on to score three touchdowns in the 4th quarter, stealing the cover with the last touchdown coming with about four minutes to go.

Missouri (-14) 33, Kentucky 10 (48.5): Missouri eventually pulled away in this game but the Tigers did lead by just 20-10 entering the 4th quarter. Kentucky had just 179 total yards in the game and Missouri got past the spread less than a minute into the final frame, later adding a defensive touchdown to pad the numbers.

Syracuse (+3) 37, South Florida 36 (53.5): South Florida led 23-3 at the half in this game, a game where the spread dropped all week from an opening number of -6. Syracuse scored three touchdowns in the span of about six minutes of game clock in the 3rd quarter, taking a one-point lead before South Florida hit a field goal to lead by two entering the 4th quarter. There was an exchange of scores in the 4th and South Florida took a five-point lead with just over a minute to go with a long field goal. There was too much time left however as Syracuse eventually hit the game winning touchdown with just seconds to go.

Toledo (-7.5) 25, Buffalo 20 (61): Buffalo led at halftime 14-7 with touchdowns from both teams coming on defense. The Rockets took off in the 3rd however with three touchdowns, oddly failing on all three extra-point kicks however, to take a 25-14 lead into the 4th quarter. Buffalo scored early in the 4th to get back within the spread and neither team scored again.

South Carolina (-14) 38, Tennessee 35 (55): In a game marred by the emotional toll around Marcus Lattimore's severe leg injury, South Carolina still took a 35-21 lead into the 4th quarter, right even with the spread. Tennessee would make it close in the final frame however with two touchdowns and after a Gamecocks fumble the Volunteers were on the edge of field goal range before a fumble prevented the chance to tie or take the lead.

SMU (-21.5) 44, Memphis 13 (47.5): SMU only led 16-13 late in the 3rd quarter in this game before the flood gates opened. The Mustangs had a massive yardage edge in the game and poured on three additional 4th quarter touchdowns to pull away and create a somewhat misleading final, although Memphis struggled most of the game.

Fresno State (-15) 49, New Mexico 32 (55): New Mexico +15 looked like a great bet early with the Lobos leading 21-0 early in the 2nd quarter. Fresno State would get on the board but New Mexico still led 24-14 at halftime. The lead disappeared quickly in the 3rd quarter however as the Bulldogs hit a few big plays and had a 35-24 lead entering the 4th quarter. New Mexico would score last with a touchdown in the final minute but it was not enough to recover from 42 straight points from Fresno State, pulling out the win and narrow cover.

Western Kentucky (-6) 14, Florida International 6 (51.5): This was a 7-3 game after the 1st quarter and that was still the score almost halfway through the 4th quarter. Florida International added a field goal to get within one-point, but Western Kentucky sealed the game with just over a minute to go with a touchdown to get past the spread. Florida International made things interesting in the final minute, getting down to the Western Kentucky 21, but the Panthers eventually ran out of time.

Most Penalized Teams in College are Actually a Great Bet

There has been a lot of talk this week about Southern California shooting itself in the foot with penalties after watching its national title hopes go up in flames following Saturday’s loss at Arizona. The Trojans were flagged for 13 penalties and a total of 117 yards in the 39-36 loss as 5.5-point favorites.

“I saw a stat… that they’re last in the league in penalties. That’s gonna kill you every single time,” said Chris Spielman this week on ESPN radio’s The Herd.

Actually, it’s not. Not for bettors anyhow.

Southern Cal, which ranks worst in the nation in penalties per game, is a dreadful 2-6 ATS (against the spread) this season – a stat that would make it easy for a college football bettor to assume the worst when it comes to heavily-penalized teams.

But the truth is the top five most penalized teams in college football make for a great bet collectively. They’re actually a better bet as a unit than the least five penalized teams, with a hugely profitable record of 25-13-3 ATS. The five least penalized teams in college football are a combined 21-17-3 ATS this season.

This could be for a whole pile of reasons. One not to overlook is the fact that good teams often take smart penalties. It makes sense in college to take a 15-yard pass interference penalty if it means keeping points off the board or preventing a big-yards play.

Here’s a look at the five most and five least penalized teams and their records against the spread this season.

The five MOST Penalized teams and their ATS records:

120. USC – 84.63 ypg, 2-6 ATS

119. UCLA – 79.88 ypg, 5-3 ATS

118. La. Tech – 77.88 ypg, 5-2-1 ATS

117. Oregon St. – 77.57 ypg, 5-2 ATS

116. Utah St. – 76.33 ypg, 8-0-1 ATS

The five LEAST Penalized teams and their ATS records:

1. Navy - 26.63 ypg, 4-4 ATS

2. Air Force - 27.0 ypg, 3-5 ATS

3. Kansas - 28.25 ypg, 3-4-1 ATS

4. Kansas State - 29.13 ypg, 6-1-1 ATS

5. Arizona State - 29.25 ypg, 5-3 ATS

Where the Action is: NCAAF Mid-Week Lines Moves

Week 10 of the college football season is the biggest, baddest slate of games bettors will get until bowl season.

With so much attention on the numerous marquee matchups this Saturday, we seek the wise words John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn Las Vegas, to find out how bettors are treating those games and where the odds could end up at kickoff.

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: Texas Tech -6.5, Move: -7.5, Move: -7

The Red Raiders are giving a near touchdown to their state rivals in Lubbock Saturday and are favorites versus Texas for the first time since 2004.

Avello says bettors are losing faith in the Longhorns, normally a very popular play, after some less-than-impressive showings in recent games.

“Texas usually gets a lot of respect,” Avello, who sees the spread staying at -7. “But you go to Kansas and struggle, you go to Oklahoma and get beat up, you lose to West Virginia. There is starting to be a lack of respect for Texas.”

Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans – Open: USC +5.5, Move: +8

This game was supposed to decide who was going to play in the national championship, but USC has stumbled along the way, taking the shine off this premier Pac-12 contest.

Avello, who is currently dealing Oregon -7, is surprised that the spread has climbed so quickly. He thought the public bettors, who love USC week to week, would be jumping at the chance to play the Trojans as a rare dog against a Ducks squad that may not be as good as its record suggests.

“Oregon is playing great, but they’re not playing anybody,” says Avello. “They haven’t had a tough game all year.”

Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers – Open: LSU +6.5, Move: +9.5

The rematch of last year’s national title game has also lost some of its luster after LSU fell to Florida and posted some disappointing efforts this season.

Avello is shocked by how high this spread has gone and says that while Alabama is clearly the best team in the country, bettors are discounting just how good the Tigers’ home-field advantage at Death Valley really is. They have the longest home winning streak in the nation at 22 games.

“(Alabama is) going to a home field that rarely loses,” he says. “It’s a big number for down there. (LSU’s) home field is worth about four or five points. So, what you’re saying is that on a neutral field Alabama would be two-touchdown favorites? I don’t know about that.”

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats – Open: KSU -7, Move: -9.5

The Wildcats have been a popular pick with public and sharp bettors in recent weeks, moving off the key number and near another heading into what looks like a shootout with Oklahoma State – the top offensive team in the land.

However, Avello thinks Big 12 bettors will see more defense than expected in this game. The Cowboys have proven they can hold down opponents, limiting their last three foes to a total of just 38 points, an average of 12.6 a game. Online books have posted a total of 66 points for this contest.

“Last year, they had a shootout and combined for close to 100 points (OSU won 52-45) and the history has been a lot of ‘fire ‘em up, shoot ‘em out’ games,” says Avello. “But there might be more defense than you expect Saturday.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: +1.5, Move: +6.5

Of all the line moves on the Week 10 board, this one stumps Avello the most. The Bulldogs, coming off a hard-fought loss at Alabama, have moved from slight home dogs to near-touchdown pups when they welcome Texas A&M to Davis Wade Stadium.

“I don’t agree with this move at all,” says Avello, who opened MSU as 1.5-point home underdogs.

The Aggies have yet to be tested on the road, picking up wins at SMU, Ole Miss and, most recently, Auburn in a 63-21 thrashing last weekend. Avello has been very impressed with Mississippi State and expects a closer game than what the line moves indicates.

“You can’t hold a loss to Alabama against them,” he says. “(Mississippi State) is going to test this Texas A&M team for sure. Texas A&M is a good team year in and year out, and they’re OK on the road. But they don’t always go on the road and dominate and they’ve only had a few weak road games this year.”

Northcoast Big Dogs

ULL +10.5

Army +7.5

Kentucky +7.5

Duke +13.5

LSU +9.5

Colorado St. +8.5

Washington St. +12

Oklahoma St. +10

Texas +8

Mississippi St. +7

Kansas +17

Akron +20

Minnesota +12.5

Virginia +10

USC +8

Maryland +8

Mississippi +17

Jimmy Boyd
5* (NCAAF) Cincinnati -4
4* (NCAAF) Oklahoma -11
4* (NCAAF) Nebraska -2
3* (NCAAF) NC State -9.5
3* (NCAAF) West Virginia -6.5

teddy covers big ticket--usc

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Saturday, November 3rd

FRANKEN-HYDRA (8 UNITS)
OREGON -8 at usc (4pm)

TOP (3 UNITS)
TEXAS A&M -7 at mississippi state (9am)
MISSISSIPPI +14 at georgia (12:30pm)
KANSAS STATE -9.5 vs oklahoma state (5pm)
ALABAMA / LSU UNDER 41.5 (5pm)
Soumi
*Lines at LV Hilton 10-31-12, 6pm
**All times Pacific

SEC TRIPLE (3*) GOM - ALL-ACCESS Dave Essler


Dave Essler | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 12:00 PM
triple-dime bet 318 Kentucky 7.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 317 Vanderbilt

Dave Essler | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 5:00 PM
double-dime bet 412 North Texas 6.0 (-110) SportsInterAction vs 411 Arkansas St.

Dave Essler | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 12:00 PM
double-dime bet 373 Syracuse 4.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 374 Cincinnati

WAC Game of the Month Bryan Leonard

Bryan Leonard | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 3:00 PM
double-dime bet 339 Texas State 26.0 (-110) JustBet vs 340 Utah St.
Analysis: 339 Texas State at Utah State
The Bobcats should be the much fresher team here already having two bye weeks while the Aggies are playing for the tenth straight week. Other than a 58-10 blowout loss to Texas Tech after their presumed huge upset over Houston in opening week, this team has been competitive in every game. Texas State won't dazzle you offensively but they are good enough defensively to keep this game well within point spread range.
Utah State has been a big story in co„llege football this year dating back to the big in-state upset of Utah on national television in week two. Since that time they took Wisconsin and BYU to the wire and blew out just about everyone on their schedule. Last week they beat up on Texas San Antonio 48-17. But now playing their tenth straight week, with the bye finally arriving next week, and with the huge match-up with Louisiana Tech on November 17th, this could be a major flat spot for the Aggies. We are getting a team that has to be a bit overconfident right now off three straight 40+ offensive performances, now playing a new entrant to the conference that they are unfamiliar with. We expect this Bobcats team to be completely overlooked on Saturday.

BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH Johnny Detroit

Johnny Detroit | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 3:30 PM
triple-dime bet 352 Michigan St. 1.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 351 Nebraska
Analysis: BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH


The wrong team is favored in this one. The line before the season started projected the Spartans to be favored by -5 on Saturday. Granted that line was before the season, but our number has Nebraska a +3.5 underdog in this one.


Michigan State has had a disappointing season, but played the defense everyone was expecting last week as they held Wisconsin to ONLY 190 total yards. The Spartans have revenge on their mind as Nebraska handed them their ass last season 24-3. Before playing their game last season, Sparty was off games vs. Michigan and Wisconsin and were in a monster letdown spot, so do not over-read into the beat-down last y�ear. The Huskers are now the ones in a huge letdown spot after getting their revenge on Michigan last week and now go play a Spartans team that is looking to salvage the season.


Johnny Detroit | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 7:00 PM
dime bet 394 Southern Cal 8.5 (-110) 5Dimes vs 393 Oregon
Analysis: Oregon ROLLED over Colorado 70-14 last week behind 617 yards of total offense. How potent is the Oregon running game? Saturday was the 6th time in 5 years they have ran for 400 yards or more. The entire Pac 12 COMBINED has only done that THREE TIMES in the same time frame. USC on the flip side was upset by Arizona 39-36 in a game the Trojans were favored by -6.5.


Talk about a major letdown for USC this season. When college football lines were first posted in Las Vegas, the Trojans were -6.0 over Oregon and now sit at +8.5 underdogs. We do believe Oregon should be fa�vored this Saturday, but not by no 8.5 points. Yes, the scoreboard shows an Arizona win, but USC played a VERY SLOPPY game and turned the ball over five times. In the loss, Matt Barkley threw for 494 yards in the air and the offense overall put up 618.


This is just the third time in 10 years the Trojans are in the home underdog role and we expect them to leave EVERYTHING on the field in this game. Oregon has been putting up sick numbers, but also have been playing powerhouse teams like Colorado, Washington State and Arkansas State. The deep talent on the Oregon squad will prevail at the end, but that means nothing to us if they fail to cover. This game goes down to the wire and getting +8.5 with USC is the correct side in this one.

Goodfella - "TWO" CFB (3*) TRIPLES w/PAC-12 GOM

GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 7:00 PM
triple-dime bet 393 Oregon -0.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 394 Southern Cal
Analysis:
**{Rare CFB Teaser}} (3*) 7 pt Paid Teaser Play (-130)


#393 OREGON DUCKS -0.5 to¹ #384 KANSAS ST -1.5


I was going to UNLOAD on OREGON over USC if I could get -2.5 but due to USC blowing it and losing at Arizona on Saturday, we have lost the line value on Oregon and with the line now -7.5, I have teased them down to -0.5. They very well may cover the -7.5 but I simply love this teaser coupled with a very strong Kansas St. team down to -1.5.






GoodFella | CFB Side Sat, 11/03/12 - 10:30 PM
triple-dime bet 400 UCLA -3.0 (-110) SportsInterAction vs 399 Arizona
Analysis:
"PAC-12 GOM" 3* o·n UCLA -3

CKO
11...Michigan State

10...Wake Forest
10...Arizona State
10...Mississippi State