How would you bet Jags versus Tide?
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
I'm going to make a point, so stick with me.
Do you think Clay Matthews is a pretty good linebacker? The answer is yes, don't even try to find a way to disagree. Do you think B.J. Raji, at 6-foot-2 and 337 pounds, is very good? Don't answer that. Of course he is. He is a man playing against boys, even in the NFL.
Let's continue.
Charles Woodson? Making the Hall of Fame. A.J. Hawk, Tramon Williams? They'd start on any team in the league. All this talent and the Green Bay Packers still allowed the Jacksonville Jaguars to gain 341 yards last Sunday, keeping the game close until the final minutes.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]The Millman Rankings[/h](Point Spread Value Above Replacement)
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<!-- end inline 1 -->I'm getting closer.
And I am going to repeat this: The 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars gained 341 yards against the 13th-best defense in the NFL. They were on the road against a Super Bowl-caliber team that needed a field goal with less than a minute remaining to clinch a win.
We have arrived.
The point is, any conversation about whether the Alabama Crimson Tide should even be on the same field as Jacksonville is ridiculous. Any conversation about whether Alabama could cover a spread against Jacksonville is equally preposterous. It's the kind of question that prompts this exchange when I emailed Jeff Sherman of the Las Vegas Hotel, who happened to be standing next to his fellow bookmaker Ed Salmons when I pinged him.
<offer>"Jeff, what line would you make for Alabama-Jacksonville?"
"Assuming they played on Mars, er a neutral field, Ed made it 24.5. I made it 25.5. Ed also says to go write a story about stuff that can happen."
I asked him to indulge me. "How do you think the public and the pros would bet this game?"
"Around that number the pros would either not play it or small lean to Jaguars to show off," Sherman wrote. "And the public would play dog because of the perception of the two teams."
Let's be logical. Forget about what you see. Forget about the fact that Bama covers three-touchdown spreads on Saturday afternoons while Jacksonville has a hard time scoring one touchdown on Sundays. The Jacksonville Jaguars spend every day working out, studying football and practicing football. Alabama players do it for 20 hours a week.
Have you ever seen a college player after he has spent even a year or two in the NFL? It's like a teenager losing baby fat. Full on morphing. Sure, Jesse Williams is a fine defensive tackle who will play in the NFL someday. But the Jags' center is Brad Meester, a 13-year vet who has started 184 NFL games, every game he has played since his rookie year. Their running back (albeit he is currently injured) led the league in rushing last season. Their quarterback was actually a good college player.
And, oh yeah, this offense gained 341 yards against a decent defense last Sunday.
"The NFL guys will know all the dirty tricks," says Teddy Covers. "It's just a matter of whether or not they would even care. I would take the NFL team, not just because they'd be better, but because the public money would be on the college team. There would be value."
Speaking of value, I called Sal Selvaggio from Madduxsports.com to help me break down this week's games. I can promise no 24-point spreads … and analysis of things that are actually being played.
[h=3]Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons[/h]Line moves: Falcons opened at minus-4.5, bet up to 5, now down to minus-4.
Sal Selvaggio says: "I took Dallas plus-5 early, mainly because I think Atlanta is the worst 7-0 team in NFL history. I think Dallas is the better team on paper and I don't think this line should be over three. Dallas has had terrible luck with turnovers this year. They are minus-11 in turnovers for the season. I think we will get an effort like we did against Baltimore and as long as they are not in negative turnovers I see them winning straight up."
[h=3]Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers[/h]Line moves: Packers opened minus-11, currently minus-10.
Sal says: "I bet Arizona plus-11. I think Green Bay is a little overrated. They averaged 3.8 ypp against Jacksonville and allowed Jacksonville, the worst team in the league, 341 yards. Jordy Nelson is questionable, Greg Jennings is out. Charles Woodson is out. Nick Perry is doubtful. Arizona, who in their right mind would want to bet on them, which means it is a good time to bet on them. Everyone saw them get killed by San Fran. I think there is a little value because of that. This game should close to 10."
[h=3]Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts[/h]Line moves: Dolphins opened at minus-2.5, currently minus-1.
Sal says: "I bet Indy at 2.5, it wouldn't surprise me if this was closer to pick at kickoff. This team has consistently played a lot better at home than on the road. Miami I had last week and although it won, it only gained 240 yards, averaged 4.4 ypp and gave up 4.6 ypp. So the score makes the offense look better than they were last week. The week before against St. Louis, just 193 yards of total offense. Miami shouldn't be laying anything. It looks like a good letdown spot, I like Indy to win this one."
[h=3]Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns[/h]Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-3, currently minus-3.5.
Sal says: "I took three on Baltimore. We will see how the week goes and I may change my opinion. I think they should be able to run the ball on Cleveland and I think that off of a bye week they will get some stuff straightened out with their defense. Last week Cleveland had just 252 yards of offense. Against Indy they only put up 13 points. I think Baltimore should be able to score enough, and I am not confident that Cleveland can score. At 3.5 I have no opinion but I did bet Baltimore minus-3."
[h=3]Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints[/h]Line moves: Saints opened at minus-3.5, currently minus-3
Sal says: "I bet Philly plus-3.5. The Saints are garbage, they are absolute garbage. I've made quite a bit of money betting against them and I will continue to do so until the public and the bookmakers and guys that are not sharp realize how bad they are. Their defense is just terrible, allowing 500 yards the past couple of weeks. That is ridiculous and Philly is getting a good matchup against a porous defense."
</offer>
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
I'm going to make a point, so stick with me.
Do you think Clay Matthews is a pretty good linebacker? The answer is yes, don't even try to find a way to disagree. Do you think B.J. Raji, at 6-foot-2 and 337 pounds, is very good? Don't answer that. Of course he is. He is a man playing against boys, even in the NFL.
Let's continue.
Charles Woodson? Making the Hall of Fame. A.J. Hawk, Tramon Williams? They'd start on any team in the league. All this talent and the Green Bay Packers still allowed the Jacksonville Jaguars to gain 341 yards last Sunday, keeping the game close until the final minutes.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]The Millman Rankings[/h](Point Spread Value Above Replacement)
| RANK | PLAYER | PSVAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 10 |
| 2 | Eli Manning | 9 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 9 |
| 4 | Tom Brady | 8.5 |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | 8.5 |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 8.5 |
| 7 | Philip Rivers | 7 |
| 8 | Ben Roethlisberger | 7 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 6.5 |
| 10 | Josh Freeman | 6 |
| 11 | Cam Newton | 6 |
| 12 | Matt Schaub | 5 |
| 13 | Jay Cutler | 5 |
| 14 | Andrew Luck | 5 |
| 15 | Andy Dalton | 4.5 |
| 16 | Tony Romo | 4 |
| 17 | Michael Vick | 4 |
| 18 | Sam Bradford | 4 |
| 19 | Ray Rice | 3.5 |
| 20 | LeSean McCoy | 3.5 |
| 21 | Calvin Johnson | 3.5 |
| 22 | Matthew Stafford | 3 |
| 23 | Robert Griffin III | 3 |
| 24 | Darrelle Revis | 2.5 |
| 25 | Julius Peppers | 2.5 |
| 26 | Haloti Ngata | 2.5 |
| 27 | Jared Allen | 2.5 |
| 28 | Nick Mangold | 2.5 |
| 29 | Joe Haden | 2.5 |
| 30 | Todd McClure | 2.5 |
| 31 | Joe Thomas | 2.5 |
| 32 | Jake Long | 2.5 |
| 33 | Clay Matthews | 2.5 |
| 34 | Mike Iupati | 2 |
| 35 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2 |
| 36 | Darren McFadden | 2 |
| 37 | DeMarcus Ware | 2 |
| 38 | Duane Brown | 2 |
| 39 | Marshal Yanda | 2 |
| 40 | James Laurinaitis | 2 |
| 41 | Chris Long | 2 |
| 42 | A.J. Green | 2 |
| 43 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 |
| 44 | Carl Nicks | 2 |
| 45 | B.J. Raji | 2 |
| 46 | Troy Polamalu | 2 |
| 47 | Nate Solder | 2 |
| 48 | Chris Snee | 2 |
| 49 | Cortland Finnegan | 2 |
| 50 | Aqib Talib | 2 |
| 51 | Jahri Evans | 2 |
| 52 | Mike Pouncey | 2 |
| 53 | Russell Okung | 2 |
| 54 | Adrian Peterson | 1.5 |
| 55 | Alex Smith | 1.5 |
| 56 | J.J. Watt | 1.5 |
| 57 | Rey Maualuga | 1.5 |
| 58 | Louis Delmas | 1.5 |
| 59 | Andre Johnson | 1.5 |
| 60 | Joe Staley | 1.5 |
| 61 | Vince Wilfork | 1.5 |
| 62 | James Harrison | 1.5 |
| 63 | Reggie Wayne | 1.5 |
| 64 | Tamba Hali | 1.5 |
| 65 | Roberto Garza | 1.5 |
| 66 | Chris Myers | 1.5 |
| 67 | Marshawn Lynch | 1.5 |
| 68 | Jordan Gross | 1 |
| 69 | Ryan Kalil | 1 |
| 70 | Maurkice Pouncey | 1 |
| 71 | Dominic Raiola | 1 |
| 72 | Robert Mathis | 1 |
| 73 | Von Miller | 1 |
| 74 | Calais Campbell | 1 |
| 75 | Charles Tillman | 1 |
| 76 | D'Qwell Jackson | 1 |
| 77 | Quentin Jammer | 1 |
| 78 | Michael Roos | 1 |
| 79 | Jamaal Charles | 1 |
| 80 | Christian Ponder | 1 |
| 81 | Rolando McClain | 1 |
| 82 | Patrick Peterson | 1 |
| 83 | Johnathan Joseph | 1 |
| 84 | London Fletcher | 1 |
| 85 | Percy Harvin | 1 |
| 86 | Daryl Smith | 1 |
| 87 | Sebastian Janikowski | 1 |
| 88 | Antoine Winfield | 1 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->I'm getting closer.
And I am going to repeat this: The 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars gained 341 yards against the 13th-best defense in the NFL. They were on the road against a Super Bowl-caliber team that needed a field goal with less than a minute remaining to clinch a win.
We have arrived.
The point is, any conversation about whether the Alabama Crimson Tide should even be on the same field as Jacksonville is ridiculous. Any conversation about whether Alabama could cover a spread against Jacksonville is equally preposterous. It's the kind of question that prompts this exchange when I emailed Jeff Sherman of the Las Vegas Hotel, who happened to be standing next to his fellow bookmaker Ed Salmons when I pinged him.
<offer>"Jeff, what line would you make for Alabama-Jacksonville?"
"Assuming they played on Mars, er a neutral field, Ed made it 24.5. I made it 25.5. Ed also says to go write a story about stuff that can happen."
I asked him to indulge me. "How do you think the public and the pros would bet this game?"
"Around that number the pros would either not play it or small lean to Jaguars to show off," Sherman wrote. "And the public would play dog because of the perception of the two teams."
Let's be logical. Forget about what you see. Forget about the fact that Bama covers three-touchdown spreads on Saturday afternoons while Jacksonville has a hard time scoring one touchdown on Sundays. The Jacksonville Jaguars spend every day working out, studying football and practicing football. Alabama players do it for 20 hours a week.
Have you ever seen a college player after he has spent even a year or two in the NFL? It's like a teenager losing baby fat. Full on morphing. Sure, Jesse Williams is a fine defensive tackle who will play in the NFL someday. But the Jags' center is Brad Meester, a 13-year vet who has started 184 NFL games, every game he has played since his rookie year. Their running back (albeit he is currently injured) led the league in rushing last season. Their quarterback was actually a good college player.
And, oh yeah, this offense gained 341 yards against a decent defense last Sunday.
"The NFL guys will know all the dirty tricks," says Teddy Covers. "It's just a matter of whether or not they would even care. I would take the NFL team, not just because they'd be better, but because the public money would be on the college team. There would be value."
Speaking of value, I called Sal Selvaggio from Madduxsports.com to help me break down this week's games. I can promise no 24-point spreads … and analysis of things that are actually being played.
[h=3]Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons[/h]Line moves: Falcons opened at minus-4.5, bet up to 5, now down to minus-4.
Sal Selvaggio says: "I took Dallas plus-5 early, mainly because I think Atlanta is the worst 7-0 team in NFL history. I think Dallas is the better team on paper and I don't think this line should be over three. Dallas has had terrible luck with turnovers this year. They are minus-11 in turnovers for the season. I think we will get an effort like we did against Baltimore and as long as they are not in negative turnovers I see them winning straight up."
[h=3]Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers[/h]Line moves: Packers opened minus-11, currently minus-10.
Sal says: "I bet Arizona plus-11. I think Green Bay is a little overrated. They averaged 3.8 ypp against Jacksonville and allowed Jacksonville, the worst team in the league, 341 yards. Jordy Nelson is questionable, Greg Jennings is out. Charles Woodson is out. Nick Perry is doubtful. Arizona, who in their right mind would want to bet on them, which means it is a good time to bet on them. Everyone saw them get killed by San Fran. I think there is a little value because of that. This game should close to 10."
[h=3]Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts[/h]Line moves: Dolphins opened at minus-2.5, currently minus-1.
Sal says: "I bet Indy at 2.5, it wouldn't surprise me if this was closer to pick at kickoff. This team has consistently played a lot better at home than on the road. Miami I had last week and although it won, it only gained 240 yards, averaged 4.4 ypp and gave up 4.6 ypp. So the score makes the offense look better than they were last week. The week before against St. Louis, just 193 yards of total offense. Miami shouldn't be laying anything. It looks like a good letdown spot, I like Indy to win this one."
[h=3]Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns[/h]Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-3, currently minus-3.5.
Sal says: "I took three on Baltimore. We will see how the week goes and I may change my opinion. I think they should be able to run the ball on Cleveland and I think that off of a bye week they will get some stuff straightened out with their defense. Last week Cleveland had just 252 yards of offense. Against Indy they only put up 13 points. I think Baltimore should be able to score enough, and I am not confident that Cleveland can score. At 3.5 I have no opinion but I did bet Baltimore minus-3."
[h=3]Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints[/h]Line moves: Saints opened at minus-3.5, currently minus-3
Sal says: "I bet Philly plus-3.5. The Saints are garbage, they are absolute garbage. I've made quite a bit of money betting against them and I will continue to do so until the public and the bookmakers and guys that are not sharp realize how bad they are. Their defense is just terrible, allowing 500 yards the past couple of weeks. That is ridiculous and Philly is getting a good matchup against a porous defense."
</offer>
