Exbookie wants to help the players week 10

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More than one third of all pro football games end with one or another of only four different pointspreads:

Since football is scored almost wholly in increments of 3 points and 7 points, and only occasionally 8 points, 6 points or 2 points, certain pointspreads are much more important than others. For example, a negative point variance from a pointspread of 3 is much more significant that a negative point variance from a pointspread of five. The reason for this is, about 14 percent of all pro football games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about 3.5 percent end with a pointspread of precisely 5 points.
Almost two-thirds of all pro football games can be expected to end precisely with one or another of these ten margins of victory: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 17.
Because of this circumstance, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off of or onto one of those ten key numbers. When a bookmaker's line moves from one of those ten key numbers it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet. He's trying to attract more action to the other side.
To a bettor, this movement of the line can present an opportunity or a trap. An underdog getting 3 1/2 points, for example, is a much better bargain than the same underdog getting only 3 points. The extra 1/2 point means their opponents must upgrade a field goal to a touch-down in order to cover the spread against them.
And by the same token, an underdog getting only 2 1/2 points is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points. A 1/2 point move either off of or onto a pointspread of 3 can be more important than some moves which appear to be much larger.
An examination of the below numbers shows that an underdog getting 9 1/2 points instead of 7 1/2 points is hardly a better deal at all. Since games very rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly 8 or 9 points, there's simply not much difference between getting 9 1/2 points or 7 1/2 points. If an underdog fails to cover a 7 1/2 point line, it's not likely they will cover a 9 1/2 point line either.
By the same token, a favorite giving away 7 1/2 points is hardly a better bargain than the same favorite giving away 9 1/2 points. If a favorite ends up covering a 7 1/2 point line, they will very likely win the game by more than 9 1/2 points in the process.

NFL Margins of Victory
Because of how pro football is scored some margins of victory are much more likely to occur than others. Below are margins of victory listed according to the percent of time they occurred over 7 years, including all regular season and post-season games. Half of all games ended with one of only 7 different margins of victory.

3: 14.3%
7: 7.2%
4: 6.8%
6: 6.3%
1: 5.1%
14: 5.3%
10: 5.2%
2: 3.7%
11: 3.6%
17: 3.6%
20: 3.5%
5: 3.0%
13: 2.9%
21: 2.3%
24: 2.3%
16: 2.2%
8: 1.9%
9: 1.8%
31: 1.6%
12: 1.6%
27: 1.6%
15: 1.5%
18: 1.5%
23: 1.4%
28: 1.0%

The significance of different size pointspreads does not increase on an evenly ascending scale. Imagine a very crazy staircase where some steps are much higher than others, and hardly any two steps are exactly the same height.
Your natural instinct will be to want to place a bet when the bookmaker's pointspread is a certain distance from your own prediction - say, 3 points or 4 points, 6, 7 etc., - but that instinct is wrong in this particular case because of the unique factors involved.
For example, if your final forecast shows a 2 1/2 point favorite should win the game by 5 points, there may be a good argument for going with the bet, even though your prediction is only 2 1/2 points from the posted line. This is because, as the numbers reveal, there is a substantial likelihood that the favorite could win by either 3 or 4 points.
On the other hand, if your forecast shows a 7-point favorite should win by 10 points, you are probably well advised to pass the bet, even though your prediction is further away from this pointspread than in the above example. Since games rarely end with 8 or 9 point margins of victory, the favorite would very likely have to beat your own forecast in order to cover the line.




More to Come

Ace
 

EX BOOKIE
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STATS VS ATS

HOME 58
AWAY 74

OVER 67
UNDER 65

DOGS 74
FAV 58........ 10 OUT OF 14 WAS FAV LAST WEEK.....by week 17 this will be closer to even

points that matter, 20 games out of 132 15%......no games matter last week


Ace
 

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From my friends at docsports


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2012 NFL Power Rankings – Week 10
by Robert Ferringo - 11/6/2012
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julio-jones-1.jpg

We’re going to do things a little different with the NFL power rankings this week. In honor of Election Day and this amazing country of ours, we’re going to pair each NFL team with a former president.
Just so I’m clear: I am not trying to rank the presidents. Not at all. I am just trying to pair each current incantation of each NFL team with its presidential doppelganger.
Here are Doc’s Sports Week 10 power rankings:
1. Atlanta Falcons (8-0) – Woodrow Wilson. No, this team isn’t going to go undefeated. And, frankly, I think their receivers look like they are getting a little worn out. But this team is solid in all aspects and is a legit Super Bowl contender. I’m glad people are finally realizing how good Matt Ryan is and has been. And as long as he stays aggressive – and as long as the team stays aggressive – they will be an undervalued favorite. The favorite is just 1-5 ATS in the last six Falcons-Saints games, and this is one of the most underrated rivalries in all of football.

2. New York Giants (6-3) – George Washington. There are weaknesses with the Giants, just like there were some holes in Washington’s game. However, they are still Numero Uno and everything runs through New Jersey. The Giants are deceptively small favorites this week at Cincinnati. However, NFC teams are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games against AFC, including a 3-0 ATS showing last week.
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) – Andrew Jackson. Like Jackson, the Niners are vicious and possess a savage mean streak. The 49ers have really opened up the playbook this year and are doing some unique things. I am interested to see what they installed in their bye week. San Fran is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against the Rams.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) – Theodore Roosevelt. Walk softly – and carry a big stick. That is what the Steelers are doing right now, and they are simply punishing opponents with their stellar defense. This team should be 7-1 right now and is clearly one of the best in football. They are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, but the Steelers have not been a strong double-digit favorite under Mike Tomlin.
5. New England Patriots (5-3) – Thomas Jefferson. Both are classic and timeless. Hopefully Bill Belichick was able to straighten out his defense during the bye week. That unit looked vastly improved early in the season, but its play has tailed off considerably. The favorite is a stunning 20-6-1 ATS in the Patriots-Bills series and New England is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
6. Chicago Bears (7-1) – James Monroe. Under Monroe’s leadership, fractured, partisan politics gave way to the “Era of Good Feelings”. Naturally, it didn’t last. Just like the current Era of Good Feelings in the Bears locker room won’t last the next time Jay Cutler gets sacked 10 times or has another four-interception game.
7. Houston Texans (7-1) – John Adams. That HBO mini-series was horrifically boring – and I love history and long, drawn-out mini-series – and so are the Texans. Their ‘C+’ game is 10 points better than 80 percent of the NFL. But do they have another gear when they face the best of the best?
8. Denver Broncos (5-3) – Franklin Roosevelt. It is all about having a steady hand in a leadership position. Peyton Manning is an absolute surgeon. And even though losing Demarius Thomas is going to hurt Denver’s vertical game and eliminate some big plays, Manning could pretty much pick someone off the street and turn them into a big-play guy. Denver also needs to expand their running game though. If teams can shut down that inside trap play then this team is going to be in trouble.
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-2) – Dwight D. Eisenhower. Just like Dewey, the Ravens are solid, steady and secure. I do not like where this team is headed because I don’t like their offensive identity. But trading Ray Lewis for Terrell Suggs, essentially, is a wash on defense. The secondary is susceptible. But as long as the Ravens continue to dominate the line of scrimmage with veteran offensive and defensive lines they will be a playoff team.
10. Green Bay Packers (6-3) – Bill Clinton. There are some glaring flaws. But the bottom line is that you can’t understate their effectiveness. The Packers are on a bye this week and they need to focus on getting the players in the secondary all on the same page.
11. Seattle Seahawks (5-4) – James K. Polk. Both Polk and Seattle have been undervalued. Over the last 10 years the Seahawks have covered the spread in 61 percent of all home games. They are 49-31 ATS in their last 80 home games and should continue their dominance this week against the woeful Jets.
12. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) – Harry Truman. Both started with a bang, but then came back to earth quickly. Teams are hip to what the Vikings are doing. And as good as their defense was early in the season, they appear to be getting worn down. They have given up 30 points or more in three of four games. That doesn’t jibe with the run-the-ball-and-play-good-defense mantra this team is trying to practice.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) – Ulysses S. Grant. Grant seemed like he would be a great president. Just like the Eagles “seemed” like they would be a great team. I have said it 1,000 times: Mike Vick is a loser and he is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. I have no idea why Andy Reid won’t go to Nick Foles, other than the growing belief I have that he actually wants to be fired. After what Reid has endured in his personal life the last few years, that feeling is understandable. His heart and his head simply do not seem to be into this team.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) – Lyndon Johnson. Underrated. The Bucs have continued to improve this season, and now the word is out that Doug Martin is actually an excellent back. He is not doing it alone, though. Tampa Bay’s investment into its offensive line is starting to pay massive dividends.
15. Detroit Lions (4-4) – Chester A. Arthur. It was written about Arthur, “No man ever entered the Presidency so profoundly distrusted.” That is exactly how I feel about the Lions. How has no one figured out Detroit’s offense yet? All they do is clear their receivers down field and then Stafford goes to a back or someone in the slot. Seriously, how many passes each week does Stafford actually complete more than 10 yards down field? Two? Three?
16. Washington Redskins (3-5) – John F. Kennedy. Both JFK and RGIII have enormous, clearly recognized talent and potential. The Redskins desperately needed this bye week. They have had a grueling two-month schedule, and they looked mentally and physically exhausted last week.
17. Dallas Cowboys (3-5) – George W. Bush. Despite all evidence pointing to their total and utter incompetence, there are still staunch supporters of both Bush and the Cowboys. Dallas is a bunch of losers, plain and simple, and the best thing for this team would be to bottom out like the Bush economy and then completely rebuild.
18. Carolina Panthers (2-6) – Ronald Reagan. Both Reagan and Carolina were a little overrated. But there is also no denying that the talent does exist. The Panthers defensive transformation has been underappreciated.
19. Miami Dolphins (4-4) – Herbert Hoover. The policies aren’t working at the moment. But the groundwork is being laid for success. The Fins have been able to mask their shockingly bad secondary through half the season. But opponents have to be excited about what they saw on tape in the Colts game.
20. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) – John Tyler. Tyler actually supported the secession movement by the southern states. The Bengals are equally clueless. This team has a nice young core. But they can’t keep from shooting themselves in the foot. The Bengals have still not beaten a team with a record over .500 in nearly three years.
22. St. Louis Rams (2-5) – George H.W. Bush. The reviews are mixed on both team and president. But there is no denying that despite the overall results there are a lot of individual things to like.
21. Arizona Cardinals (4-5) – Franklin Pierce. Pierce was known for his divisive policies. A bit like Ken Whisenhunt’s approach to his quarterback controversy. Look, that run the Cardinals made at the end of last season and beginning of this year was an anomaly. They were winning games in spite of horrific statistical indicators. But now this team has been exposed, and I actually think it might be worse than I have it rated here.
23. New Orleans Saints (3-5) – James A. Garfield. We’ll never know what could’ve been with a Garfield presidency (he was assassinated just four months into office) just like we’ll never know what could’ve been with this Saints season. They will be active home underdogs this week against their hated rivals. But I don’t trust the Saints defense to get stops. They are horrific.
24. Indianapolis Colts (5-3) – Andrew Luck is the most overrated player in football right now. He has been a mess on the road (two touchdowns to six interceptions), and I think he is going to flop on national TV this week. Once again, the Dolphins dropped two easy interceptions that would’ve been game-changing plays. Luck is not as good as everyone thinks. I’m telling you.
25. New York Jets (3-5) – Richard Nixon. Both are know for their bluster – and their shockingly bad resume. The Jets had their bye week sabotaged by Hurricane Sandy and now have to fly cross-country. They won’t be put off by Seattle’s physical style of play. But I don’t see Mark Sanchez escaping that game with less than three turnovers.
26. San Diego Chargers (5-4) – Millard Fillmore. Fillmore was a member of the “Know Nothing Movement”. That is pretty much the stance that San Diego ownership has taken on the idiocy of Norv Turner and A.J. Smith. Don’t be fooled by last Thursday’s blowout: this team is awful.
27. Tennessee Titans (3-6) – Jimmy Carter. They are nice enough. And you want to root for them. But the weaknesses are glaring. The Titans defense has no depth and Mike Munchak appears to be in over his head when it comes to in-game team management.
28. Buffalo Bills (3-5) – William McKinley. Neither could play defense and both died tragically in Buffalo. This team simply cannot stop anyone. The effort is there. But they just don’t have any talent.
29. Cleveland Browns (2-7) – Gerald Ford. Just completely unprepared to compete on a week-in, week-out basis. The Browns have moments when they show signs of being a good team. But Brandon Weeden is sure to crush those moments swiftly with another ill-advised throw.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) – James Buchanan. Both the Jags and Buchanan are best known for letting things spiral out of control. I still think that this team could be better and is a bit underrated right now. Their schedule has been brutal and I like their physical style. But there is simply no denying it: Blaine Gabbert is pathetic.
31. Oakland Raiders (3-5) – Warren Harding. There are some things to like about both. But a total corruption of the system made Harding one of the worst presidents and makes the Raiders one of the worst organizations in the game.
32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) – Andrew Johnson. Both have exhibited total incompetence during reconstruction. The Chiefs are facing their former coach, Todd Haley, this week. Don’t think for a second that Haley will hesitate to run up the score on his former employers. That is, if he gets a chance.

 

EX BOOKIE
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Words to live by

Nobody can know when they're "IN" a winning streak; they can only know when they've just "HAD" a winning streak. Every day is a new beginning.
 

seer
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hi ace thanks for margin of victory table.
could u pls post the wk 10 lines before the start of season? thanks!
 

EX BOOKIE
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hi ace thanks for margin of victory table.
could u pls post the wk 10 lines before the start of season? thanks!

Week 10 line at the start of the season

Jax-3
Nyg-1
Mia -4
Det-4
Ne-11
No -5
Sd-3
den pk
Bal-8
sea-2
Phi-5
Sf-9
Chi-3
Pit -7


that was this weeks line on week1

thats what I call line movement....
 

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hi Ace,
longtime follower here..thanks for all you do.. can you post the newsletter links if you have em please...many thanks
 

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hi Ace,
longtime follower here..thanks for all you do.. can you post the newsletter links if you have em please...many thanks

Check back in a hour...I will be home and I will post them
 

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[h=1]Market Report: What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week Ten[/h]
It’s a very interesting week for sharps, who took a hit along with many sportsbooks when NFL underdogs had a rare bad Sunday. Starting with tonight’s Indianapolis-Jacksonville game on the NFL Network, sharps will have to decide if they want to keep fading public favorites at a time when the list of BAD teams keeps growing longer and longer.
Let’s run through the full NFL card and see how sharps are betting this weekend. There’s an interesting mix of challenges from last week’s “danger zone” in the 4-6 range, and some teaser spots that were “created” by big line moves.
(Note that Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Washington all have byes this week. This is the next to last week for byes. Games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE: Vegas opened this game at Colts -3, which is already a big move in the series because they were three point favorites at home earlier this season. So, the market made a six point adjustment once you factor in the site. That kept sharps from getting involved aggressively. The public, after hearing all week about how great Andrew Luck has been, and after seeing stories about how the players shaved their heads in solidarity with ailing head coach Chuck Pagano, has hit the Colts hard enough to move the line to Indy -3.5 as we go to press.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND: Sharps hit the double digit dog out of the gate, as an opener of New England -12 was bet down to -11. You regulars know that there are some old school sharps who play every double digit dog on principal. They moved, as did some others. There wasn’t dog enough support to drive the line all the way to the key number of ten though.

NY GIANTS at CINCINNATI: Games last week in the price range of 4-7 gave sportsbooks and may sharps migraines. Those groups generally root for underdogs, while squares find the favorites affordably cheap. This is our first game this week in that range, and sharps aren’t shying away from the underdog. Cincinnati opened at +6, but has been bet down to +4.5. If last week is any indication, the public will be on the Giants on game day…just like they were on Denver in this city a week ago. Another Manning!

SAN DIEGO at TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened at -2.5, which is right under the key number. That tells you that oddsmakers believed sharps were going to like the dog with the added preparation time off a Thursday game. Sharps jumped on the Bucs and drove the line to a full field goal. Tampa Bay has been the better team in recent weeks, and many sharps told us they couldn’t believe the game opened below three. They bet the value immediately. Note that we’ll only be mentioning Over/Unders today in games that have shown sharp tendencies. None yet to this point on the card.

DENVER at CAROLINA: Another game from last week’s death zone between the three and seven for a road favorite…and another game where sharps didn’t shy away from the dog. Denver opened at -5.5. We’re now seeing lines between -3.5 and -4 for the Broncos. This is the second straight road favorite spot for the Broncos outside of their time zone, and Carolina has been playing better of late after a slow start. Some sharps like this situational home dog quite a bit, particularly since the NFC has fared well in interconference play this year.

TENNESSEE at MIAMI: Miami opened at -6.5, as we’re once again in last week’s danger zone. Sharps played the dog rather tentatively, with the line dropping down to Miami -6. Sharps have mostly been fond of Miami this year, and they don’t like Tennessee’s defense. Oddsmakers pretty much nailed sharp sentiment here in a game that may have seen a line near a field goal a month ago.

OAKLAND at BALTIMORE: Our first game in the teaser window this week, with Baltimore opening at -7.5. Should the line stay there on game day, the Ravens will be a popular choice in two-team teasers for sharps and squares alike…moving the number down past the 7 and the 3 to -1.5. You may see some stores lift Baltimore to -9 to discourage that, given the tendency for the public to bet favorites and to fade West Coast travelers in early starts. The total has dropped from 47 to 46, which may be an early sign of weather issues because Oakland’s defense has struggled on the road.

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS: This time we have a home dog in the teaser window. Atlanta opened at -1.5 and is now sitting at -2. That means basic strategy would push the dog up past +3 and +7 in two-team teasers. There are some sharps who have Atlanta -1.5 already, but who will be on New Orleans in teasers this Sunday hoping the game lands in that vast window. We’re hearing that the sharps who like Atlanta believe they match up well against the poor New Orleans defense.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA: We have a huge sharp move here on the Lions, as they opened at +2.5 (+3 in some of the earliest spots) on the road here but have been bet all the way to a 1-point favorite (-2 in spots). You don’t normally see that in the NFL unless there’s an injury involved. Here, it looks to be a matter of oddsmakers not adjusting their Power Ratings quickly enough. Detroit has been playing better ball lately, while Minnesota has struggled badly against Seattle and Tampa Bay. Oddsmakers saw the two teams as close to even. Sharps believe Detroit is the clearly superior side right now. Though, this line move does stick Minnesota in the basic strategy teaser range at +1.5, +2, or if the line moves further to +2.5. The total is up from 45.5 to 46.5 or 47 on strong Over sentiment from the math guys.

NY JETS at SEATTLE: Seattle opened at -6, which is a line few would have imagined back when the season started. Sharps bet the favorite anyway, moving it up to -6.5. This goes against what we’ve been seeing in this price range this week, which is meaningful. We do hear though that Jets money would come in if the line goes all the way to seven. Basically, those who think Mark Sanchez will be overmatched on the road by a strong NFC defense bet the Seahawks early. Those who prefer the “defensive dog” position of the Jets are waiting to see if they can get +7 over the weekend.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA: We have another flip flop of favorites. Philadelphia opened at -1.5. They’ve been playing so badly of late that sharps hit Dallas hard enough to make the Cowboys the favorite at that price. Both teams have issues right now. Sharps believe the dark cloud hanging over Philadelphia is gloomier at the moment. Will those clouds mess up teaser plays? Philadelphia has ironically moved into the teaser window because of pessimism about the team.

ST. LOUS at SAN FRANCISCO: This is a West Coast version of Buffalo/New England, where the Super Bowl contending favorite opened at -12 against an overmatched divisional foe. Some sharps hit the dog lightly (particularly the old school guys), so we’re now seeing San Francisco -11.5 or -11 in most places.

HOUSTON at CHICAGO: The big move here was on the total. As an opener of 44 has been bet down to 41.5. Some of that is weather potential, but a lot of it is simply a matchup of great defenses on a field where it can be hard for offenses to move the ball consistently. Houston’s been playing conservatively on offense this season, and much of Chicago’s scoring is a result of cheap points against bad teams. Frankly, a very bad total from oddsmakers that got spanked quickly. Chicago opened at -1. If the line moves up, that will put Houston in the teaser window in a defensive struggle. Should oddsmakers move Chicago all the way to -3 on game day because of public support for the hosts, then sharps would come in very strong on Houston +3. Tricky game for sportsbooks in a game that will have a huge handle as a prime time showdown of Super Bowl hopefuls.

KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH: Not much betting interest in this one at all. It’s worth nothing that Pittsburgh opened at -12.5 and there WASN’T a move toward the double digit dog. Kansas City’s been playing so badly that sharps won’t invest at this price. They might at +13 or +14 on game day if squares hit the TV favorite.
 

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NO THINK OVER AND UNDER SYSTEM,

So far, I only see two games that qualify:

Buffalo/ New England over 52.5
Atlanta/ New Orleans over 53.5
 

EX BOOKIE
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$600.00 -105 Take 'Under' 43 Indianapolis at Jacksonville (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 8)
I like the 'under' in this game. These two teams have gone 'under' in three straight games. Earlier this year they scored just 39 combined points. Last year they scored 32 and 20 points in their two games. Both of these teams like to run the ball and that will keep the clock moving. The Colts have gone 'under' in three straight games and are just 2-5 against the total. The Jaguars defense has been improving. But they took a step back last week against the Lions and gave up 31 points. I think they will be able to correct that. The Jaguars are still going to be without Maurice Jones-Drew, who is their best offensive player. The 'under' is 9-0 in Indianapolis' last nine divisional games and the 'under' is 13-4 in the Colts last 17 games overall. The 'under' is 12-4-1 in Jacksonville's last 16 games against the AFC.
 

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Glad to see Ace picked the Under as I did as soon as I saw this line... Parlayed with IND -3 and got an easy winner to start the week. GL Ace!
 

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