Service Plays Tuesday 11/6/12

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Ball State at Toledo: What bettors need to know

Ball State at Toledo (-6.5, OFF)

Toledo has made it back into the top 25 for the first time since the end of the 2001 season. The 25th-ranked Rockets aim to stay right there when they host dangerous Ball State on Tuesday in a key Mid-American Conference matchup. Toledo has won eight straight games since a 24-17 overtime loss at Arizona on opening night to match its best start in history and stands a half game behind next week’s opponent, Northern Illinois, in the MAC-West.

The Rockets average 34.3 points per contest and it will likely take that much in this game, with both teams outside the top 105 in the nation in total defense. Ball State, which has won three straight, is ranked 22nd in the nation (Toledo is 32nd) in total offense and averages 33.7 points. The Rockets have won the last three games against Ball State, including a 45-28 decision last year.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Toledo -6.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the south.

ABOUT BALL STATE (6-3, 3-2 MAC): The Cardinals, one of two eligible teams left out of a bowl last year after finishing 1-3, have tough games left against the Rockets, Ohio and Miami of Ohio to try and improve their resume. Ball State has rushed for 200 yards or more in five of nine games, led by Jahwan Edwards who averages 105.4 yards. Quarterback Keith Wenning has 50 career touchdown passes and his top target Willie Snead is averaging 100 yards receiving in 2012. The Cardinals have won three times on their final possession and Steven Schott leads the nation with 2.2 field goals per game.

ABOUT TOLEDO (8-1, 5-0 MAC): David Fluellen has emerged with five straight 100-yard rushing efforts, capped by a career-high 228 in the last game against Buffalo. Quarterback Terrance Owens will likely have to raise his game down the stretch if the Rockets are to reach their goals. The junior has thrown five interceptions in the last four games after being flawless in the first five of the campaign. Owens has two big targets in Bernard Reedy (803 yards) and Alonzo Russell (733). Toledo has intercepted 12 passes.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
* Over is 4-0 in Rockets’ last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 7-1 in Cardinals’ last eight road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Toledo LB Dan Molls leads the nation with 12.9 tackles per game and Ball State LB Travis Freeman has 432 career tackles, most among active NCAA players.

2. Snead has registered 46 plays from scrimmage of more than 10 yards.

3. The Rockets have won 19 of their last 21 MAC games.

DCI College Football

The Daniel Curry Index

Week 11 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 800-265 (.751)
ATS: 301-299 (.502)
ATS Vary Units: 1937-1866 (.509)
Over/Under: 267-264 (.503)
Over/Under Vary Units: 936-613 (.604)

Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Mid-American Conference
TOLEDO 47, Ball State 36

Bank Shots: NBA Betting News and Notes

Here are the best and worst bets in the NBA, so far…

BEST ATS

New Orleans Hornets (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The Hornets scored a big 89-82 win over the Chicago Bulls, minus Anthony Davis, as 9.5-point road underdogs Saturday. New Orleans got a great game from center Robin Lopez and out-muscled a Bulls team known for throwing its weight around. Davis is recovering from a concussion and is questionable for Wednesday’s game in Philadelphia. The No. 1 overall pick was stellar in his first one and a half games as a pro before catching an accidental elbow. His shot- blocking can only help New Orleans improve on its fourth-ranked defense, which is allowing 89 points a night.

WORST ATS

Boston Celtics (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)

The Celtics are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the worst bet to start the season, but who in their right mind is betting the Suns? Boston has a loyal following, which has suffered in the first week. Without a true center – Kevin Garnett has taken on that role – the Celtics are allowing opponents to score 101.7 points on 48 percent shooting (27th in the NBA). On offense, Boston has struggled to find a replacement for Ray Allen’s output and Avery Bradley’s injury compounds those problems.

BEST OVER

Dallas Mavericks (2-1 SU, 3-0 over/under)

The Mavs offense was supposed to stall without Dirk Nowitzki knocking down leaners from the wing. However, Dallas has put the gas pedal down and gone with a smaller, quick-hitting lineup that is averaging 106.3 points per game through the first three outings. New faces Darren Collison, O.J. Mayo and rookie Jae Crowder have helped pick up the scoring slack and oddsmakers have helped out as well, trimming the Mavericks’ totals due to Dirk’s absence.

BEST UNDER

Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2 SU, 1-2 over/under)

There were a ton of teams to pick from for the best under bet, even a few 0-2 over/under squads. But, in the interest of uncovering value, the Thunder have to be the best under bet through three games – even though one did top the total. Last season, Oklahoma City averaged more than 103 points and ranked third in scoring. This year, OKC is puttering along at 95 points per game out of the blocks. The James Harden trade took away the Thunder’s boost off the bench, allowing for an offensive letdown when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook take a seat. That’s a big hole in the game plan. Can Kevin Martin be that guy? Maybe he should try growing a beard.

Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets Point Spread - Pick

Ball State Cardinals (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. No. 23 Toledo Rockets (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Tuesday, November 6th, 2012, 8:00 p.m. EST
Where: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio
TV: ESPN2
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: BSU +6.5/TOL -6.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
If the 23rd-ranked Toledo Rockets want to keep their chance at a Mid-American Conference (MAC) Western Division title alive they need to take care of business in primetime on Tuesday night, but beating the Ball State Cardinals at home in the Glass Bowl on ESPN2 may turn out to be a big task.

Toledo could get caught in the classic look-ahead spot this week, with a showdown with MAC-West leader Northern Illinois next week in a game that could be for the title if they can just find a way to get past Ball State at home on Tuesday. The Rockets were definitely in cruise-control the last time out in a, 25-20, victory on the road in Buffalo, putting in by far their worst game of the season with a season-low 25 points.

If the Rockets don't get things back on track following their 10 days off it could cost them a title shot because Ball State is not going to go away easy.

The Cardinals are currently riding a three-game winning streak, which includes an overtime win over Western Michigan and back-to-back road wins over Central Michigan and Army, so they have proven they know how to win. With quarterback Keith Wenning and the MAC's 2nd-ranked offense (473 ypg), the Cardinals are a dangerous opponent for the Rockets if they're not focused on one game at a time.

Oddsmakers opened the special Tuesday night contest with Toledo as 6-point favorites at home in the Glass Bowl, but some early money on the chalk Rockets drove the point spread up to minus -6.5 pretty quick at most online sportsbooks.

As of press time an over/under total has yet to be released.

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When the total does finally get released expect it to be a big number, because at least on paper this game figures to be another one of those "classic" Tuesday night MAC offensive shootouts with little to no defense attempted at all.

Offensively this game has everything of what you'd expect from a MAC game … the 3rd-ranked scoring offense (Toledo 34.0 ppg) vs. the 5th-ranked (Ball St. 33.7 ppg); two of the MAC's top-10 running backs in Toledo's David Fluellen (125.7 ypg, 11 TD) and Ball State's Jahwan Edwards (105.4 ypg, 9 TD); two of the league's top-5 passers in Wenning (269 ypg, 17 TD) and Toledo's Terrance Owens (240 ypg, 13 TD); and the MAC's top receiver in Ball State's Willie Snead (100.1 ypg). Heck, the Cardinals and the Rockets even have two of the top kickers in the league, as Ball State's Steven Schott already has 20 field goals this season and Toledo's Jeremiah Detmer is close behind with 17.

So if it's defense where this game is going to turn, then statistically the Rockets might have an edge since they have allowed about 10 less yards per game (Toledo 456.2 - Ball St. 465.2) and about a full touchdown less on the scoreboard (Toledo 24.4 ppg - Ball St. 33.3 ppg). Both teams are terrible against the pass (12th and 13th in 13-team MAC), but the Rockets are a little better at getting off the field on third down (36.5 %) than Ball State (41.1 %), which can turn a game like this one quickly.

Toledo has the advantage of a three-game win streak against the Cardinals, beating them last year 45-28 in Muncie and also in their last trip to the Glass Bowl in 2010, 31-24. Ball State has had a trend of covering the point spread on the road at Toledo, going 3-0 ATS in the last three trips, but the Cards are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four seasons.

A few more betting trend reasons to favor Ball State: Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on Thursday night and 0-5 ATS following a bye week; Ball State is 7-1 ATS following a bye and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 MAC games.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Normally the third of three straight road games would scare me with Ball State, but there has been 10 days off since No. 2 and Tuesday night's No. 3, so what could have been a big advantage is tempered. Ball State is one of the few MAC teams that can score with the Rockets, and they'll give them everything they can handle and then some in this game. Take Ball State plus the 6.5-points.

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Orlando won its first two games, by 13-21 points. Chicago won two of its first three games, but they're 0-2 as a home favorite.

Cold Teams
-- Harden-less Thunder lost two of first three games. Raptors lost two of first three games, losing by 2-7 points.
-- Denver started the season with an 0-3 road trip; this is their home opener. Pistons lost first three games, by 9-3-29 points.

Totals
-- Four of last five Orlando road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- 13 of last 18 Detroit games went over the total.

Last Year's Series Records
-- Road team won all three Orlando-Chicago games LY; Bulls won last meeting 85-59.
-- Raptors lost 91-75 here in LY's only meeting.
-- Pistons lost 116-115 here in LY's only meeting.

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Ball State at Toledo[/h] The Cardinals look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a bye week. Ball State is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

DCI Pro Basketball

The Daniel Curry Index

11/06/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 28-17 (.622)
ATS: 22-24 (.478)
ATS Vary Units: 78-76 (.506)
Over/Under: 24-23 (.511)
Over/Under Vary Units: 51-42 (.548)

CHICAGO 93, Orlando 84
OKLAHOMA CITY 105, Toronto 90
DENVER 106, Detroit 94

Mighty Quinn

Mighty had no play Monday and likes the Bulls Tuesday.

The deficit is 1183 sirignanos.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 933-691 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Bonus Play Tues Chi Bulls -9

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

Orlando +9.5

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Orlando at Chicago[/h] The Bulls look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games against teams from the NBA Southeast Division. Chicago is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9). Here are all of today's picks

Cappers Access

Bulls -9.5
Toledo -6.5

Chris Justice (20-15 is his record for nba)

Got the play he said
over 199 OKC GAME (CAPS NEEDED)
Over 1st half OKC
Over Chicago
Under Denver


6 totals for tomorrow lets hope for a A BIG DAY

Parlay : under Chicago over 1st half Denver .. His system is having both lines 1st half below the spread but 2nd half well over.

This is from his side system which is 3-1 this season in nba
toronto +8.5

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, November 6

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ORLANDO (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 11/6/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 99-73 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-3 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (1 - 2) at OKLAHOMA CITY (1 - 2) - 11/6/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 2-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 3) at DENVER (0 - 3) - 11/6/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons