Service Plays Thursday 11/8/12

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Today's NFL Picks

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

The Jaguars look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3).

Gold Medal Club

#106 Jacksonville +3.5

Cappers Access
(NFL) Jaguars +3-
(CFB) Virginia Tech +14

NFL Week 10 Preview: Colts at Jaguars

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 42.5

The surging Colts seek their fourth straight victory (SU and ATS) when they take on the slumping Jaguars, losers of five in a row, on Thursday night.

Despite the current slide, the Jags have beaten Indy three straight times, including a stunner at Indianapolis in Week 3. The Colts took a 17-16 lead with less than a minute to go, only to have Blaine Gabbert throw an 80-yard TD to Cecil Shorts on the next play, accounting for more than half of Gabbert’s passing yards. The Colts outgained Jacksonville 437-333 in that game. Rookie QB Andrew Luck is on fire right now, throwing for an NFL rookie record 433 yards in last week’s home win over Miami. The Jaguars have numerous injuries in their defensive backfield. The Jags also have the worst offense in the NFL, and will likely be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew again because of his foot injury.

Luck is coming off an NFL rookie record for passing yards, but he has not been sharp in his three road games this year, posting a 63.3 passer rating due to a completion rate of 55.9% with just 2 TD and 6 INT. However, Jacksonville will be the weakest defense Luck will have faced on the road, as the Jags allow 256 passing YPG (25th in NFL). The league's leading receiver Reggie Wayne (835 rec yds) has faced them 21 times in his career, producing 125 catches for 1,760 yards and 6 TD. In his past six trips to Jacksonville, Wayne has 52 catches for 750 yards and a pair of scores. With No. 2 wideout Donnie Avery questionable (hip) and TE Coby Fleener out indefinitely (shoulder), Wayne will garner a lot of attention from the Jags secondary. That could free up backup TE Dwayne Allen for a big game too. But Indy hasn't just been a pass-happy offense, as the ground game is kicking into high gear with 139 rushing YPG during the three-game win streak. However, top RB Donald Brown who missed two games with a knee injury this year, injured his hip last week and will likely be a game-time decision. If he can't go, rookie Vick Ballard has performed admirably with a heavier workload, gaining 199 yards on 48 carries (4.1 YPC) in his past three games. He could have an even bigger day against Jacksonville's 27th-ranked run defense (137 YPG). Indy knows it needs to protect the football better, considering the team has nine giveaways in its two road losses in 2012.

With Jones-Drew doubtful to return to action, Rashad Jennings will continue to be Jacksonville's main ball carrier. But Jennings has averaged a paltry 49 rushing YPG and 3.0 YPC in the past three games. And after gaining more than 50 receiving yards in two straight games, he caught just three passes for seven yards in last week's 31-14 loss to Detroit. Jacksonville has failed to rush for even 70 yards in any of its past five games, a span in which they have a meager 13.0 PPG. Second-year QB Blaine Gabbert is improving though, tossing 9 TD and just 5 INT this year. As a rookie, he threw for 12 TD and 11 INT, while completing just 50.8% of his passes. And in three career meetings with the Colts, he has thrown for a mere 365 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. Indy's defense has defended the pass much more efficiently (222 YPG, 11th in NFL) than the run this year (131 YPG, 25th in nation). However, the Colts have not forced a single turnover in any of their past four games, totaling just three takeaways for the entire season.

FSU looks to add to Va. Tech slump on Thursday

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida State -14, Total: 51.5

Virginia Tech looks for a signature victory during a miserable season when it hosts No. 10 Florida State on Thursday night.

These teams last met in the 2010 ACC Championship when Virginia Tech won 44-33. That was just the second series loss (13-2 SU) for Florida State since 1976. This season, the Seminoles are 0-3 ATS on the road, scoring just 26.3 PPG, compared to 54.0 PPG in six home games. Virginia Tech has dropped four of five (SU and ATS), but all four losses have been on the road, including a 30-12 thrashing at Miami last Thursday. But since losing to James Madison in 2010, the Hokies are 15-1 SU (8-8 ATS) in their past 16 home games.

Seminoles QB EJ Manuel had a strong outing when he lost to Va. Tech in the conference title game two years ago, completing 23-of-31 passes for 288 yards and 1 TD, but also throwing a pair of interceptions. He currently ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency, completing 70% of his passes for 2,315 yards (10.1 YPA), 16 TD and 4 INT. In last week's 48-7 shellacking of Duke, he threw for 282 yards and 2 TD despite completing just eight passes. The running game suffered a major loss two weeks ago when top RB Chris Thompson suffered a season-ending knee injury. However, FSU was still able to gallop for 261 yards against the Blue Devils, led by Devonta Freeman's 104 rushing yards (8.7 YPC) and 2 TD with James Wilder Jr. adding 70 yards and another score. The 'Noles lead the country in total defense (227 YPG allowed) while ranking among the top-four FBS schools in scoring defense (12.0 PPG), rushing defense (73 YPG) and passing defense (154 YPG). Florida State also has a great return game, placing among the top-10 in the nation in both kickoff returns (28.8 average) and punt returns (16.0 average).

Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas has not faced FSU in his career, and considering how poorly he's played lately (12 INT in past seven games), this is not a good matchup for him. Despite the miscues, Thomas has topped 300 total yards in four straight weeks, rushing for 223 yards and 2 TD over the past two contests. For the Hokies to hang around in this game, either or both of RBs Michael Holmes (282 rush yds, 4 TD) and J.C. Coleman (361 yds, 2 TD) need to power through the few holes they'll get against FSU's tough defense. Virginia Tech's defense is solid in both total defense (368 YPG) and scoring defense (24.7 PPG), especially at home where the Hokies have allowed just 44 points over four games. They need to take more risks to create turnovers though, as they have just five takeaways in their five losses this season.

Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Jacksonville +3 5% Of Bankroll

Total Winning % Before Week 10 = +89%

GRAND TOTAL For Week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 = + 89%
WEEK 9 ( 2-4 )
WEEK 8 ( 8-1 )
WEEK 7 ( 4-4 )
WEEK 6 ( 4-0 )
WEEK 5 ( 3-5 )
WEEK 4 ( 5-2 )
WEEK 3 ( 3-3 )
Grand Total ( 29 - 19 )

NFL

Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7)—Indy playing inspired football for disabled coach Pagano (leukemia) who visited team Sunday, winning four of last five games, last three all by 4 or less points, or in OT; they’ve lost last two visits here, 31-28/19-13- last year was first time Jags ever swept season series. Series was split in five of last six years. Indy allowed 41-22-35 points in its losses; they’re 4-0 allowing less than 22 points, a figure Jax has yet to hit at home this year. Jags’ only win this year came on 80-yard pass in last 2:00 at Indy, after Colts had just grabbed lead; they only had 148 passing yards the whole game. Jax lost five games in row (2-3 vs spread) since- they’re 0-4 at home (0-4 vs spread) losing by average score of 32-6. Home underdogs are 6-9 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; under is 4-2-1 in Colts’ last seven games.

Thursday Night Football: Colts at Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 42.5)

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to battle it out for the AFC South Division basement this season. The Jaguars are holding up their end of the bargain, but thanks to a lot of Luck, Indianapolis has emerged as one of the surprising leaders for the conference's two wild card slots. Rookie Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in April's draft and successor to Peyton Manning, has directed the Colts to three consecutive victories and will vie for a fourth when Indianapolis visits the reeling Jaguars on Thursday night.

Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games and is tied with Kansas City for the league's worst record at 1-7. Playing at EverBank Field has not provided an edge for the Jaguars, who are the league's lowest-scoring team and have lost all four home games this season.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This line has stayed steady at +3 while the total has been up and down but has returned to its opening of 42.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Fellow rookie Robert Griffin III has garnered much of the early-season publicity, but Luck and the Colts have lost just one since falling at home to Jacksonville on Sept. 23. Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes and set an NFL rookie record by throwing for 433 yards in Sunday's 23-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins. It was his fourth 300-yard game, tying the rookie record held by Manning. The victory came in the first game attended by head coach Chuck Pagano, who left the team late in September to undergo treatment for leukemia. Somewhat overlook has been the performance by Indianapolis' defense, which has allowed an averge of 15.3 points during the three-game winning streak.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-7, 4-4 ATS): After a pair of solid performances in narrow road losses at Oakland and Green Bay, Jacksonville turned in a woeful effort in Sunday's 31-14 loss to Detroit. The Jaguars gave up 21 second-quarter points and held the ball for less than eight minutes while running only 18 plays in the first half - a stat that quarterback Blaine Gabbert termed "pathetic." Jacksonville failed to score until Gabbert threw a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes with the game well in hand. The Jaguars again will be without star running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who will sit out his third straight game. Jones-Drew led the league with 1,606 yards rushing last season and ran for 177 yards against the Colts in September.

TRENDS:

* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jacksonville is 6-21 in its last 27 games, but three of the wins have come against the Colts.

2. Less than 24 hours after Pagano delivered an emotional postgame speech, his doctor said his leukemia is in remission.

3. The Jaguars have a minus-92 point differential in their four home losses - the worst mark since 2002 among teams that have lost their first four home games.

Tale of the Tape: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
by Sean Murphy

The surging Colts roll into Jacksonville to tackle the downtrodden Jaguars Thursday night. Find out how this AFC South battle breaks down with our tale of the tape.

Offense

The Colts are piling up yardage, but that hasn't exactly translated into a boatload of points in recent weeks. They've averaged over 430 total yards of offense per game on north of six yards per play, but have scored a grand total of only 59 points in their last three games. Rookie QB Andrew Luck has received heaps of praise following his 433-yard passing day against the Dolphins, but has topped 300 yards only once in three road games this season, posting a less than impressive 2:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Jacksonville has scored more than 15 points only once in its last five contests and has been outgained in terms of total yardage in seven of eight games so far this season. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew remains sidelined with a foot injury - bad news for an offense that is averaging just over 250 yards per game. On a brighter note, second-year QB Blaine Gabbert has made positive strides, tossing nine touchdowns compared to only five interceptions. He's found the end zone in seven of eight games, but has thrown multiple TDs only twice.

Edge: Indianapolis

Defense

Indianapolis' defense continues to improve, having allowed only 46 points combined over its last three games. A word of warning though. Those three contests have come against pedestrian offenses in the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins. Still, it's a step in the right direction after getting torched for more than 20 points in four of the first five games this season. The return of LB Pat Angerer from injury has solidified the linebacking corps, but there are concerns with CB Vontae Davis sidelined and DE Robert Mathis questionable to play.

The Jags defense has been on the field an awful lot this season, and we've seen signs of this unit tiring in recent weeks. Jacksonville has allowed at least 24 points in four consecutive games, giving up over 30 twice during that stretch. Home cooking hasn't helped, as the Jags are allowing a whopping 432 total yards per game at EverBank Field. They've forced just one turnover in their last two games after recording three in an overtime loss to the Raiders on October 21.

Edge: Indianapolis

Special teams

Indy hasn't made much noise with its return game, falling below the league average in both punt and kick return yardage. Veteran kicker Adam Vinatieri has struggled as well, connecting on only 16 of 22 field-goal attempts. With that being said, he did make good on a 43-yard game-winner against Miami this past Sunday. He also misfired on a pair of kicks in the same game.

Jacksonville has been even worse than Indianapolis when it comes to returning kicks. Kicker Josh Scobee gives the Jags a considerable edge, however, as he's a perfect 14 for 14 on field-goal attempts this season. The Jags have also been terrific defending punt returns, holding the opposition to an average of only seven yards.

Edge: Jacksonville

Word on the street

“You can’t say enough good things about him, from him as a human being to him as a football player to him as a teammate. He’s the kind of guy you really want your kids to grow up and become. He’s a professional, he does it with class and he’ll be a good one for years to come.” -- Colts DE Fili Moala giving high praise to rookie QB Andrew Luck.

“I’m disappointed that we are where we’re at. I know the players are. I certainly know the fans are. I just want them to know how they feel, we feel the same way. Everybody in that locker room feels the same way. We’re mad, too, very disappointed we’re in this position." -- Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey speaking about the team's 1-7 start to the season.

Florida State at Virginia Tech: What Bettors Need to Know

Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Tech Hokies (+14.5, 51.5)

Florida State is homing in on its first ACC Atlantic Division title in seven years. Standing in the sixth-ranked Seminoles' way next is a team they’ve grown accustomed to fighting with for conference supremacy - at least up until this season. The well-rested Seminoles travel to Blacksburg on Thursday night to face struggling rival Virginia Tech in a contest loaded with ACC title game implications.

Florida State throttled Duke 48-7 prior to taking a week off. Now, the Seminoles need to win their final two conference games to secure a berth in the ACC championship game and a shot at their first BCS bowl appearance since 2005. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s chances at reaching the ACC title game were dealt a blow with an embarrassing 30-12 loss to Miami last Thursday. This is only the third regular-season ACC contest between the teams. In the most recent meeting, Virginia Tech prevailed 44-33 in the 2010 ACC championship game.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida State opened at -13 and has been bet up to -14.5. The total is set at 51.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 9 mph.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (8-1, 5-1 ACC, 3-5 ATS): The Seminoles are the only team in the nation ranked in the top 10 in offense (seventh, 524.5 yards per game) and defense (first, 227.1). Florida State's explosive offense scored on the third play from scrimmage against Duke as E.J. Manuel hit Rashad Greene for a 71-yard touchdown and led 31-0 after 20 minutes. Devonta Freeman and sophomore James Wilder Jr., the duo helping replace Chris Thompson (torn ACL), combined for 174 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries. Meanwhile, the defense, led by All-American candidate DT Bjoern Werner (eight sacks on the season), allowed only 232 yards.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-5, 2-3 ACC, 2-7 ATS): The Hokies have lost two straight and four of their last five after a forgettable showing against Miami. Virginia Tech outgained Miami by nearly 100 yards (421-347) and ran 24 more plays (82-58), but lost because it managed only two field goals in four red zone trips. Even the special teams, a staple of Frank Beamer-coached squads, were outplayed. Miami blocked a punt, which led to a score. Offensively, quarterback Logan Thomas (19-of-37, 199 yards, two interceptions versus Miami) has regressed and, as a result, the Hokies are a middling 69th in scoring offense (27.1 points) and 91st in turnover margin (minus-.56).

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Said Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher, on playing in Blacksburg: “It’s a great challenge. That’s a very tough environment, hostile environment.” Florida State lost during its only trip there in 2007.

2. The Hokies need to win two of their final three games to avoid missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 20 years.

3. The Seminoles, who beat Virginia Tech for the 2000 national title, also knocked off the Hokies in the first ACC title game in 2005.

BEN BURNS

7:30 PM NCAAF Florida State vs. Virginia TechBurns' *10* Thursday ESPN MAIN EVENT!
**AWESOME 8-1 STREAK**
@ 14 -110 Virginia Tech

8:20 PM NFL Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville * Burns' *10* Thursday Divisional BEST OF THE BEST!
(3-0 SWEEP LAST THURSDAY!)
@ 3.5 -110 Jacksonville

DCI Pro Football

The Daniel Curry Index

Week 10 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 75-51 (.595)
ATS: 59-70 (.457)
ATS Vary Units: 272-418 (.394)
Over/Under: 69-59 (.539)
Over/Under Vary Units: 279-215 (.565)

Thursday, November 8, 2012
Indianapolis 24, JACKSONVILLE 15

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA – Thursday, November 7th - Free Member Play

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA– Thursday, November 8th - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
VIRGINIA TECH +14 (-120) vs florida state (4:30pm)
Soumi
*Lines at LV Hilton 11-7-12, 10pm
**All times Pacific

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