Service Plays Veterans Day Sunday 11/11/12

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[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Edmonton at Toronto[/h] The Eskimos look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 Division Semifinals games. Edmonton is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Week 10

( Hot Games To Bet On - Minnesota +1 and Cincinnati +4 )

Tennessee +6 - 5% Of Bankroll

New Orleans +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

St. Louis +11 - 5% Of Bankroll

San Diego +3 - 5% Of Bankroll

Buffalo +11 - 5% Of Bankroll

Cincinnati +4 - 5% Of Bankroll

Minnesota +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

Chicago -1 - 5% Of Bankroll

Total Winning % Before Week 10 = +89%

GRAND TOTAL For Week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 = + 89%
WEEK 9 ( 2-4 )
WEEK 8 ( 8-1 )
WEEK 7 ( 4-4 )
WEEK 6 ( 4-0 )
WEEK 5 ( 3-5 )
WEEK 4 ( 5-2 )
WEEK 3 ( 3-3 )
Grand Total ( 29 - 19 )

NFL Teams that Shine or Slump in the Second Half

Nothing is more thrilling than watching your wager fight for its life in the final two quarters. And, on the other hand, nothing is as painful as watching your “sure thing” come unglued in the second half.

Here’s a look at four teams that either turned it on or shut it off in the final two frames of football games.

Second Half STARS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS)

The Buccaneers are one of the best bets in football strictly because they do not stop fighting. Tampa Bay is fourth in the NFL in second-half points, averaging just over 15 points over the final two quarters. The Bucs hung 35 points on Oakland in the second half Sunday, holding on for a 42-32 win as 1-point underdogs. On defense, Tampa Bay is allowing opponents an average of just 11.2 points, helping the Bucs cover as pups five times this season.

Detroit Lions (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)

The fact the Lions are .500 is a little shocking, considering just how bad they’ve been at times this season. But, as was the case with that backdoor cover against the Bears in Week 7, Detroit does its best work in the second half, averaging 14.6 points – or 60 percent of its offense. The Lions have needed strong second-half offensive performances in three of their wins (St. Louis, Philadelphia and Seattle) to keep its head above water. On defense, Detroit has limited foes to 11.4 points in the final two frames. Even better, it’s trimmed that to just eight points over the last three outings – all of which were ATS paydays.

Second Half SLOBS

Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)

For a team listed among the favorites to win the Super Bowl, Green Bay certainly has a problem closing out games. The Packers are getting outscored by 0.1 points per game in the second half this season after outscoring foes by close to six points in the first half. Taking their foot off the gas has cost gambling Cheese Heads in games against Indianapolis and New Orleans. Green Bay has a week off this Sunday to develop some killer instinct before the playoff race heats up.

New England Patriots (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

New England’s defense has been particularly mediocre in second halves this season. With a secondary that has been by many standards worse than last year’s, the Patriots have given up more points in the second half than the first in six of their eight games – and in one (Buffalo) they gave up the same (14 in each half). Pats coach Bill Belichick often greases the machinery for opposing offenses in the second half with loose pass coverage that allows teams to move the ball at the expense of taking time off the clock.

Jack Edwards

Week 10

Game: 3 Team Parlay Pick

Saints +1, Lions -1, Bears -1 (+6125)
Recommended Unit Play (Risk) 2 Units

Denver at Carolina Pick: Denver -4 (-110)
Recommended Unit Play (Risk) 11 Units

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 10
by Jason Logan

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 10:

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

Philip Rivers’ swagger vs. Bucs' bad pass defense

Philip Rivers has never had an issue with confidence before, wearing that shit-eating grin on the sidelines most Sundays no matter if the Bolts are winning or not. But, the Chargers’ cocky QB did need a little pick-me-up after losing three in a row. That boost came in the form of Kansas City and an 18-for-20 passing day for Rivers last Thursday.

With a bit of swagger back, Rivers takes aim at the Buccaneers’ porous pass defense, which ranks last in the league after allowing 321.1 yards through the air per game. Tampa Bay made Oakland QB Carson Palmer feel like it was 2005 again, watching the aging arm pass for more than 400 yards and four TDs. Palmer did, however, get picked off three times. But c’mon, it’s Carson Palmer.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, 44)

Dolphins' retooled run game vs. Titans' terrible ground defense

The Dolphins are trying to get their groove back on the ground after having the turf pulled out from under them in recent weeks. Miami had a couple big rushing days – like 263 yards versus Oakland in Week 2 – to start the year but has since slowed down. The Fins are mustering just 3.8 yards per carry – 28th in the NFL – and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman isn’t happy about it. He’s shaking up the depth chart and focusing on the running game versus Tennessee, which is the perfect opponent to roll over.

The Titans have been road kill against the run all season, allowing 141.6 rushing yards per game (30th in the NFL). Tennessee was gashed by Chicago RB Matt Forte last weekend, allowing the Bears star to rumble for 8.6 yards per carry. Teams have gone for the throat against the Titans, calling more than 46 percent of their plays on the ground.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

Texans’ care taking vs. Bears’ scoring defense

The enigma that is the 2012 Chicago Bears was broken down by SI.com’s Kerry J. Byrne this week, with the finger pointing mostly at how far the defense has carried this team. Chicago’s stop unit causes chaos all over the field, averaging an insane 3.5 takeaways per game. The Bears are nearly averaging a defensive TD per game and came away with scores from Corey Wootton on a blocked punt and Brian Urlacher off an INT versus Tennessee last week.

However, if you don’t give away the ball, how is Chicago supposed to make those big plays? Houston may have this already figured out. The Texans protect the football like a teenage daughter and rank tops in the league in giveaways per game (0.8). They’ve only fumbled the ball twice and QB Matt Schaub has been picked off only four times, including clean sheets in the past two outings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5, 43)

Steelers' speedy injuries vs. Chiefs’ new DC

Injuries are the great equalizer in the NFL, and with the Steelers suffering multiple mishaps to their speediest players, Pittsburgh could be in slow motion Monday night. The Steelers will be without road runners KR Chris Rainey and WR Antonio Brown and RB Jonathan Dwyer is nursing a groin injury which held him out of Week 9. The loss of those horses could have Pittsburgh leaning heavily on smash-mouth RB Isaac Redman. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s awful tough to cover all those points when you're slowly creeping down the field and keeping the clock on the move.

Kansas City should see a little more life on defense this Monday with head coach Romeo Crennel handing the stop unit over to Gary Gibbs. Crennel is dodging media criticism with the move, but letting Gibbs call the shots could shake things up with the assistant looking to make a name for himself. We’re not saying Kansas City – which sits 17th in total yards against and 30th in points allowed – is suddenly going to be a brick wall. But anything is better than the first nine weeks of the season.

NFL Home Underdogs are the runts of the Betting Litter

Home underdogs are one of the favorite weapons hanging from the holsters of NFL handicappers each football season, with perceived value in a host team taking the points.

But, in a year when underdogs have dominated – besides Week 9’s favorites fiasco – the home pup is the runt of the litter.

Host squads getting the points are just 24-22 ATS (21-25 SU) and covering at just over 52 percent. That record is weak compared to the frothing mouths and loud barks of road dogs, which have gone 51-32-3 ATS (30-56 SU) and are covering at more than 62 percent heading into in Week 10.

There are six road underdogs on this week’s NFL board, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Indianapolis Colts as 3-point pups Thursday night. The Jags have been underdogs in seven of their eight games this season, with the lone chalk coming against Cincinnati at home in Week 4. Jacksonville failed to cover that game and is 0-4 ATS at home this season.

Other home teams handing out the points are the Carolina Panthers (+3.5 vs. Denver), Cincinnati Bengals (+4 vs. New York), New Orleans Saints (+1 vs. Atlanta), Minnesota Vikings (+1 vs. Detroit), and Philadelphia Eagles, who opened as 1-point home favorites versus the Dallas Cowboys but have since been bet down to +1.

Carolina has been an underdog in five of its eight games this season, going 4-1 ATS when taking the points. However, the lone underdog loss came against Dallas at home where the Panthers are just 1-3 ATS on the year.

Cincinnati is mired in a four game SU and ATS losing skid, failing to cover as a home underdog in its last two outings – versus Pittsburgh and Denver. The Bengals are 2-3 ATS as pups and just 1-3 ATS as hosts in 2012.

New Orleans finds itself in the rare roll as a home underdog versus the undefeated Falcons Sunday. The Saints haven’t taken the points inside the Superdome since Week 17 of the 2008 season, getting one point in a 33-31 loss to a postseason-motivated Panthers squad. This season, New Orleans is 2-2 ATS in the Big Easy and 1-1 ATS as an underdog.

Minnesota is on a two-game tumble and has won just once in the past four games. The Vikings have gone 2-2-1 ATS at home and boast a 2-1 ATS record as underdogs this year. The Lions, who visit the Metrodome this weekend, have managed to cover only once in their last seven trips to Minny, going 1-4-2 ATS.

Philadelphia is a bit of a train wreck, and bettors have promptly decided it should be a home underdog versus division rival Dallas Sunday. The Eagles have been a bad bet no matter where they play, going 1-6-1 ATS including a 0-3-1 ATS mark inside Lincoln Financial Field. As a dog, which Philly has surprisingly been only twice, Philadelphia is 1-1 ATS this season.

Last week, when favorites finished 10-4 SU and ATS, home underdogs went just 1-4 SU and ATS, with Indianapolis' 23-20 win over Miami as a 2.5-point pup as the lone victory.

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL TENNESSEE at MIAMI

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
109-58 since 1997. ( 65.3% 45.2 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.9 units )

NFL DETROIT at MINNESOTA

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game.
66-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.0% 0.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )

NFL NY GIANTS at CINCINNATI

Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total with a terrible defense - allowing 5.7 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% 1.8 units )

NESS

vegas insider--det lions

Giants@Bengals

The Bengals are 0-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since 1999 at home when the line is within four of pick and they had a positive DPA in each of their last two games.

Titans@Dolphins

The Titans are 11-0 ATS (+11.7 ppg) since October 8th, 2006 as a dog when they are off a game as a dog in which they made fewer than three field goals and failed on at most one red zone attempt.

The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since October 19, 2003 as a home favorite between away games.

Lions@Vikings

The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since 1997 when they are off a game in which they had 32-plus minutes of possession time and recorded fewer than two sacks.

The Lions are 0-11 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since January 2005 when they are off any game as a 4-plus point favorite.

The Lions are 0-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since December 2003 when they are off a game in which they held an AFC opponent to fewer points than expected.

The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (+13.5 ppg) since 1989 when the line is within three of pick and they are hosting a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time per game season-to-date.

Chargers@Buccaneers

9-0-0 (7.2) SD004: The Chargers are 9-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) since 1989 as a dog when they beat a team for a second time in the season last week.

Raiders@Ravens

The Raiders are 11-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) since Christmas of 2004 after a game in which they had at least 290 yards passing.

The Raiders are 9-0 ATS (+16.5 ppg) since October 18, 2009 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they suffered a turnover margin of at least plus two

The Ravens are 0-11 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since 2009 when they are off a double-digit win vs an AFC opponent in which they allowed fewer than 17 points

Jets@Seahawks

The Jets are 10-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) since December 10th, 1997 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss in a game that had a total of less than 40.

Rams@Fortyniners

The Rams are 0-14 (-12.7 ppg) since 2003 when they are off a game in which they punted fewer than five times but recorded fewer than 18 first downs.

Chiefs@Steelers

The Chiefs are 9-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) since 2002 on the road when they are off a loss in which they had more field goals than touchdowns.

Prediction Machine

217 1:00 pm NYG @ cin -4

229 1:00 pm DET @ min -2

216 1:00 pm @NE buf -11

222 1:00 pm @CAR den 4

231 4:05 pm NYJ @ sea 6.5

235 4:25 pm STL @ sf 11.5

225 1:00 pm OAK @ bal 7.5

Colin Cowhers Blazing Five (32-13)
1. Jets+6
2. Detriot -2
3. Houston +1.5
4. New Orleans +2.5
5. Dallas -2

THE GOLDSHEET

★ ★ ★ ★KEY RELEASES ★ ★ ★ ★
DETROIT (-2) by 13 over Minnesota
SEATTLE (-6.5) by 17 over N.Y. Jets
OVER THE TOTAL (o48) Tampa Bay 34, San Diego 26
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★

Inspin

3* 2 team 6.5 point teaser bal-1 + car+10.5

3* sd/tb over 47

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Houston, Jets, Detroit, Giants

2* San Fran, Atlanta, Pitt(MON)

BEST OF LUCK

cokin nfl total goy ? thanks

Goodfella NFC GOM 3* Detroit Lions ML