this Jax game

gmenknicks · Nov 8, 2012

is a perfect example of overlooking the obvious best play in an effort to not be square....you can sell yourself all the dreams you want about the hook and 3 points for a home team is a lot and blah blah.....

look in the nfl sub forum and you can see it all over the place...now i doubt most of these guys are actually betting real money on the Jax Jags its still funny to see

JustinCruise · Nov 8, 2012

not necessarily

There are a lot of games in this situation that in fact would result in a cover for the home team. Even in this game if the Jags hadn't been screwed so bad by the officials in the first half (colts basically handed 14 points) it could be a whole different outcome. Just because this particular game that looked obvious turned out that way, doesn't mean there aren't 5 more games where the "obvious" pick that the general public went with was a sucker bet and a loss. The key is being able to determine when the obvious best play is the right one.

btw just so you know this isn't coming from an angry jags backer I bet on the colts in this one.

zeeman · Nov 8, 2012

JustinCruise said:
not necessarily

Even in this game if the Jags hadn't been screwed so bad by the officials in the first half (colts basically handed 14 points) it could be a whole different outcome.
btw just so you know this isn't coming from an angry jags backer I bet on the colts in this one.

Exactly

gmenknicks · Nov 8, 2012

justin...forgetting the calls I would challenge you to provide 2 legitimate football reasons why the Jags would cover this game....and lets not use situation for the sake of this conversation.....

DesertDevil · Nov 8, 2012

I remember Baltimore went in to Jax last year on a Thursday or Monday night and laid an egg as a TD fav. EVERYBODY was on Balt. Looked like free money.

Jax won straight up. Flacco was horrible. And the sky was falling the next day for Raven fans.

Its the NFL. You never know.

JustinCruise · Nov 8, 2012

gmenknicks said:
justin...forgetting the calls I would challenge you to provide 2 legitimate football reasons why the Jags would cover this game....and lets not use situation for the sake of this conversation.....

Jags almost always play the colts tough, colts have been bad on the road (i.e. getting crushed by the jets), colts let down after emotional win, Jaguars in desperate need of a win, only primetime game for jags, rookie qb's always play worse on road, -3.5 in a divisional rivalry game on the road is a lot of points.....

But like i said before the trick is knowing when such reasons hold real merit. In this case I didn't think they did and I went with the colts.

What I can assure you is if you took the "obvious" winner approach to every game you would be a losing sports bettor and there would be no difference between you and the average guy out there that bets a few games a year for fun