Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
[h=3]Week 10 line moves[/h]<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]The Millman Rankings[/h]The latest rankings were worked up with the help of Evan Abrams. Welcome Lance Briggs, you are valued not just by the Bears, but by the bettors!
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<!-- end inline 1 -->There's a canary in the coal mine.
His name is Pete Korner, and he runs the linemaking consulting service, The Sports Club, in Vegas. He has contracts with sports books all over Nevada to provide his opinion on what the point spread should be for every game that goes up on the shiny boards people like to stare at. His number becomes part of a stew the bookmakers use when ultimately posting their line: A little bit of Pete's opinion, a little bit of their own, a little bit of what they see as public perception. Stir that for about 30 seconds and poof, up goes a number that will zip around the world and generate hundreds of millions of dollars in bets.
Illegally. But I digress.
Korner has a bunch of employees, all of them seasoned oddsmakers. And each week they send out what they think the lines should be for both individual bets on the game and on parlay cards. Those aren't necessarily the same number. If you've been paying attention to the column or my podcast the past couple of years, you know that parlay cards are the silent killers of bookmakers. Public bettors love to play parlays, betting multiple teams to win at one time for small risk and big reward. Inevitably they bet favorites. And when the favorites all win, as they did this past weekend, the result is an historic loss for the books.
Let's not cry for bookmakers. Korner sent me an email yesterday that, according to the Gaming Control Board, the state had a record-setting September, holding 12.1 percent in sports with a profit of $47,150,000. Of that, football held 13.33 percent ($38,947,000) and baseball held 3.03 percent ($2,294,000). Even with a flat October, none of the books will be in the red at the end of the season.
But, when I called Korner on Thursday night, we had a long chat about bookmaking strategy. And he wondered about the long-held philosophy bookmakers have of not wanting to be beaten by sharps when it comes to what will likely be the biggest games on the board. "I don't think you need to be catering to wiseguys right now," he said. "Because the popular money on the faves is huge right now, especially on the parlay cards."
For example, Korner and his team suggested bookmakers post the Pats as 13-point favorites over the Bills and make them 13.5-point favorites on parlay cards. This is what they sent bookmakers about the game:
Here we go again. Our number is higher and we recommend the higher number on the cards no matter where you stand on the boards. It's OK to root for the favorites sometimes. Let them have the Bills all they want. If you're booking this game anything less than our sendout, you'll be rooting for the team that lost by 40 at home to this same outfit a few weeks ago.
Bookmakers didn't heed his advice. Most places opened the Pats as 11-point favorites. By Thursday night, they were at 12. I guarantee this number isn't going to go in the other direction.
Here is Korner's take on the moves for that game and four others.
[h=3]Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots[/h]Line Moves: Pats opened at minus-11, currently at minus-12.
Korner says: "We suggested 13. We know what happened last game between these two, and that is still fresh in a lot of people's minds. We have been padding everything we can to get people to put a higher number on the parlay card, but for some reason, sports book directors in Nevada are terrified of having too big a number early in the week. Wiseguys will take the dog. Well, let them. When it is time for the game to take off, they will be loaded on the favorite. This opened up 11 and now it is at 11.5 or 12. Classic double-digit favorite. This is slowly climbing up, and I don't think they have two-way action."
[h=3]Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers[/h]Line moves: opened at Broncos minus-5.5, currently minus-3.5, and is still there.
Korner says: "We put out six and a half for this. Offshores put out 4. Last week we were too low on Denver -- we had a bad number. Now there is nothing but stories on Manning this week. I don't suspect this is going down to 3. But right now, why would you be scared of Carolina money? Keep your number up. Squares are not going to take Carolina here. They know Denver and Manning, and they will make the playoffs. We know how they are betting them."
[h=3]St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Line moves: Opened Niners minus-11, currently minus-12.
Korner says: "We sent out 13, it opened 11, and now it's solid 12 and will be at 13 come game day. You have to see ahead. The parlay card balance is going to be 10 or 15 or 20 to 1 on San Fran. So really, you need to pump these up to prevent weekends like this past one. You might not clear as much on parlay cards, but you save yourself from these monster days."
[h=3]Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints[/h]Line moves: Falcons opened minus-1, it moved to minus-3, now minus-2.5.
Korner says: "We sent out picks on this and there was sentiment that New Orleans should be favored, but I have been favoring Atlanta every week. I have to be true to my numbers. We were gun-shy here, and our send out is weak. I thought New Orleans showing Monday Night would help them. We had no problems going with the road favorite. So this was the right move for them."
[h=3]Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Line moves: Opened Eagles minus-1, currently Cowboys minus-1.5.
Korner says: "We sent out Eagles minus-2.5 for this, and we were way too high. If I was a player, the line is where it should. Dallas should be slightly favored, Philly looks horrible. In this game, Dallas should win."
ESPN INSIDER
[h=3]Week 10 line moves[/h]<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]The Millman Rankings[/h]The latest rankings were worked up with the help of Evan Abrams. Welcome Lance Briggs, you are valued not just by the Bears, but by the bettors!
| Rank | PLAYER | PSVAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 10 |
| 2 | Eli Manning | 9 |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 9 |
| 4 | Tom Brady | 8.5 |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | 8.5 |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 8.5 |
| 7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 7 |
| 8 | Philip Rivers | 7 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 6.5 |
| 10 | Cam Newton | 6 |
| 11 | Josh Freeman | 6 |
| 12 | Matt Schaub | 5 |
| 13 | Jay Cutler | 5 |
| 14 | Andrew Luck | 5 |
| 15 | Andy Dalton | 4.5 |
| 16 | Tony Romo | 4 |
| 17 | Michael Vick | 4 |
| 18 | Sam Bradford | 4 |
| 19 | Ray Rice | 3.5 |
| 20 | LeSean McCoy | 3.5 |
| 21 | Calvin Johnson | 3.5 |
| 22 | Matthew Stafford | 3 |
| 23 | Robert Griffin III | 3 |
| 24 | Darrelle Revis | 2.5 |
| 25 | Julius Peppers | 2.5 |
| 26 | Haloti Ngata | 2.5 |
| 27 | Jared Allen | 2.5 |
| 28 | Nick Mangold | 2.5 |
| 29 | Joe Haden | 2.5 |
| 30 | Todd McClure | 2.5 |
| 31 | Joe Thomas | 2.5 |
| 32 | Jake Long | 2.5 |
| 33 | Clay Matthews | 2.5 |
| 34 | Mike Iupati | 2 |
| 35 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2 |
| 36 | Darren McFadden | 2 |
| 37 | Adrian Peterson | 2 |
| 38 | DeMarcus Ware | 2 |
| 39 | Duane Brown | 2 |
| 40 | Marshal Yanda | 2 |
| 41 | James Laurinaitis | 2 |
| 42 | Chris Long | 2 |
| 43 | A.J. Green | 2 |
| 44 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 |
| 45 | Carl Nicks | 2 |
| 46 | B.J. Raji | 2 |
| 47 | Troy Polamalu | 2 |
| 48 | Chris Snee | 2 |
| 49 | Cortland Finnegan | 2 |
| 50 | Aqib Talib | 2 |
| 51 | Jahri Evans | 2 |
| 52 | Mike Pouncey | 2 |
| 53 | Russell Okung | 1.5 |
| 54 | Alex Smith | 1.5 |
| 55 | J.J. Watt | 1.5 |
| 56 | Nate Solder | 1.5 |
| 57 | Rey Maualuga | 1.5 |
| 58 | Louis Delmas | 1.5 |
| 59 | Andre Johnson | 1.5 |
| 60 | Joe Staley | 1.5 |
| 61 | Vince Wilfork | 1.5 |
| 62 | James Harrison | 1.5 |
| 63 | Reggie Wayne | 1.5 |
| 64 | Tamba Hali | 1.5 |
| 65 | Roberto Garza | 1.5 |
| 66 | Chris Myers | 1.5 |
| 67 | Marshawn Lynch | 1.5 |
| 68 | Jordan Gross | 1 |
| 69 | Maurkice Pouncey | 1 |
| 70 | Dominic Raiola | 1 |
| 71 | Robert Mathis | 1 |
| 72 | Ryan Kalil | 1 |
| 73 | Von Miller | 1 |
| 74 | Calais Campbell | 1 |
| 75 | Charles Tillman | 1 |
| 76 | D'Qwell Jackson | 1 |
| 77 | Quentin Jammer | 1 |
| 78 | Michael Roos | 1 |
| 79 | Jamaal Charles | 1 |
| 80 | Christian Ponder | 1 |
| 81 | Rolando McClain | 1 |
| 82 | Patrick Peterson | 1 |
| 83 | Johnathan Joseph | 1 |
| 84 | Lance Briggs | 1 |
| 85 | London Fletcher | 1 |
| 86 | Percy Harvin | 1 |
| 87 | Daryl Smith | 1 |
| 88 | Sebastian Janikowski | 1 |
| 89 | Antoine Winfield | 1 |
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</tbody>
<!-- end inline 1 -->There's a canary in the coal mine.
His name is Pete Korner, and he runs the linemaking consulting service, The Sports Club, in Vegas. He has contracts with sports books all over Nevada to provide his opinion on what the point spread should be for every game that goes up on the shiny boards people like to stare at. His number becomes part of a stew the bookmakers use when ultimately posting their line: A little bit of Pete's opinion, a little bit of their own, a little bit of what they see as public perception. Stir that for about 30 seconds and poof, up goes a number that will zip around the world and generate hundreds of millions of dollars in bets.
Illegally. But I digress.
Korner has a bunch of employees, all of them seasoned oddsmakers. And each week they send out what they think the lines should be for both individual bets on the game and on parlay cards. Those aren't necessarily the same number. If you've been paying attention to the column or my podcast the past couple of years, you know that parlay cards are the silent killers of bookmakers. Public bettors love to play parlays, betting multiple teams to win at one time for small risk and big reward. Inevitably they bet favorites. And when the favorites all win, as they did this past weekend, the result is an historic loss for the books.
Let's not cry for bookmakers. Korner sent me an email yesterday that, according to the Gaming Control Board, the state had a record-setting September, holding 12.1 percent in sports with a profit of $47,150,000. Of that, football held 13.33 percent ($38,947,000) and baseball held 3.03 percent ($2,294,000). Even with a flat October, none of the books will be in the red at the end of the season.
But, when I called Korner on Thursday night, we had a long chat about bookmaking strategy. And he wondered about the long-held philosophy bookmakers have of not wanting to be beaten by sharps when it comes to what will likely be the biggest games on the board. "I don't think you need to be catering to wiseguys right now," he said. "Because the popular money on the faves is huge right now, especially on the parlay cards."
For example, Korner and his team suggested bookmakers post the Pats as 13-point favorites over the Bills and make them 13.5-point favorites on parlay cards. This is what they sent bookmakers about the game:
Here we go again. Our number is higher and we recommend the higher number on the cards no matter where you stand on the boards. It's OK to root for the favorites sometimes. Let them have the Bills all they want. If you're booking this game anything less than our sendout, you'll be rooting for the team that lost by 40 at home to this same outfit a few weeks ago.
Bookmakers didn't heed his advice. Most places opened the Pats as 11-point favorites. By Thursday night, they were at 12. I guarantee this number isn't going to go in the other direction.
Here is Korner's take on the moves for that game and four others.
[h=3]Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots[/h]Line Moves: Pats opened at minus-11, currently at minus-12.
Korner says: "We suggested 13. We know what happened last game between these two, and that is still fresh in a lot of people's minds. We have been padding everything we can to get people to put a higher number on the parlay card, but for some reason, sports book directors in Nevada are terrified of having too big a number early in the week. Wiseguys will take the dog. Well, let them. When it is time for the game to take off, they will be loaded on the favorite. This opened up 11 and now it is at 11.5 or 12. Classic double-digit favorite. This is slowly climbing up, and I don't think they have two-way action."
[h=3]Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers[/h]Line moves: opened at Broncos minus-5.5, currently minus-3.5, and is still there.
Korner says: "We put out six and a half for this. Offshores put out 4. Last week we were too low on Denver -- we had a bad number. Now there is nothing but stories on Manning this week. I don't suspect this is going down to 3. But right now, why would you be scared of Carolina money? Keep your number up. Squares are not going to take Carolina here. They know Denver and Manning, and they will make the playoffs. We know how they are betting them."
[h=3]St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Line moves: Opened Niners minus-11, currently minus-12.
Korner says: "We sent out 13, it opened 11, and now it's solid 12 and will be at 13 come game day. You have to see ahead. The parlay card balance is going to be 10 or 15 or 20 to 1 on San Fran. So really, you need to pump these up to prevent weekends like this past one. You might not clear as much on parlay cards, but you save yourself from these monster days."
[h=3]Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints[/h]Line moves: Falcons opened minus-1, it moved to minus-3, now minus-2.5.
Korner says: "We sent out picks on this and there was sentiment that New Orleans should be favored, but I have been favoring Atlanta every week. I have to be true to my numbers. We were gun-shy here, and our send out is weak. I thought New Orleans showing Monday Night would help them. We had no problems going with the road favorite. So this was the right move for them."
[h=3]Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Line moves: Opened Eagles minus-1, currently Cowboys minus-1.5.
Korner says: "We sent out Eagles minus-2.5 for this, and we were way too high. If I was a player, the line is where it should. Dallas should be slightly favored, Philly looks horrible. In this game, Dallas should win."
