How to fade someone with no money management skills?

BenjaminBufordBlue · Nov 13, 2012

Long story short I know a guy who bets with my buddy (a book) who gets crushed just about every week. I haven't bet since college but this guy is just too good to be true. Only problem is that his money management skills are so bad that I don't know how to go about fading him.

For instance in a given week he might place 8 bets to win 100, 100, 150, 180, 200, 220, 250, and 300 (too lazy to figure out the juice but you get the idea)

My bankroll is nowhere near as big as this guy's so how would I go about fading him? I was thinking making anything 249 or less a 1 unit play, then pumping it up a unit with every $50 he adds on starting at $250. So if he bet to win $250, I'd bet 2 units - $300 would be 3 units and so on. He rarely bets to win more than $300 but he might place 5 of those bets in any given week.

Any suggestions? THANKS

BernieVegas · Nov 14, 2012

If he is a good fade just bet against everyone of his plays and bet the same amount on each...If he is a solid fade he obviously doesn't and shouldn't have a winning percentage.

I personally look for guys that I know at best are 30% cappers and I play opposite of them on most circumstances...Even a blind squirrel catches an acorn once in a while LOL. There are three solid fades at the Rx and they are always popular threads so I know others are viewing them as fades as well LOL. If people were playing their plays they'd have their head so far up the mans ass they'd never see daylight LOL LMAO.

Play all the plays for the same amount and even if he hits 40% you'll hit 60% and make some nice $$$$$$$$$$......

Yours in Winners
BernieV

BenjaminBufordBlue · Nov 14, 2012

Thank you for the advice! My only concern is my bankroll is nowhere near as large as his. IF he wound up winning $600 one week and I was following his bets, I'd be pretty fucked. I'm not trying to get rich, just make a little cash on the side - and if I wind up losing maybe $100-$200 a week here and a week there, that's fine I can afford that. I don't want to make the same mistake as this BOZO and bet way over my head.

Also I have to keep in mind that just fading him isn't guaranteed to make me money even when he loses because of the JUICE

halekulani · Jan 10, 2013

if he's only a 50-50 you cant fade him flat betting
if you do fade him, only fade his bigger plays

you can always adjust your own wager sizes to be reasonable