Service Plays Wednesday 11/14/12

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Toledo at Northern Illinois: What Bettors Need to Know

Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies (-10.5, 63)

TIME: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

THE ODDS: This spread has bounced around between 10.5 and 11 since it opened, but BetOnline.ag saw a massive drop in the total. They opened the number at 69 on Sunday and dropped it a full touchdown to 63 Monday afternoon. By Tuesday evening, the total had moved back up to 64 at several books.

WHAT THIS GAME MEANS: The MAC West division and a trip to the MAC title game is on the line Wednesday. Northern Illinois leads the division at 6-0 in conference play while Toledo is in second at 5-1.

STREAKS: Northern Illinois is one of the most profitable teams in the country at 8-1-1 ATS this season. The Huskies have covered six straight games and five games as double-digit favorites. Toledo had an 8-game winning streak snapped with a tough loss against Ball State last week.

MORE GAME NOTES:

- If you haven't seen Jordan Lynch yet, Wednesday's your chance. Northern Illinois started a Lynch-for-Heisman campaign a couple of weeks ago for their QB. Lynch ranks fourth the country in total offensive yards (3,517), leads all QBs in rushing (1,342 yards), is No. 1 in touchdowns responsible for with 35 (rushing and passing), broke the NCAA record for most consecutive 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback with eight, has gone six straight games without an interception, has thrown just three INTs, etc, etc, etc.

- Toledo senior linebacker Dan Molls will be charged with finding a way to slow Lynch. Molls leads the nation in tackles with 132 this season.

- From niuhuskies.com: "Northern Illinois, winners of nine straight since a one-point setback to Iowa in the 2012 season opener, own the nation's longest home winning streak at 20 games and have won more consecutive conference games - 14 - than any other school in the Football Bowl Subdivision." Wednesday's game is supposed to be a 'Blackout', where NIU fans are encouraged to don black.

- Toledo's last three games played under, all of which had totals between 61.5 and 70.5.

- Toledo's defense ranks 106th in the country in yards allowed per game and 116th in passing yards against per game.

- The Rockets run a balanced offense with an effective dual-threat QB Terrance Owens and the nation's No. 2 rusher in David Fluellen. Fluellen has dashed for 200 or more yards in two straight games.

- Tommylee Lewis returned two kicks for TDs in last year's game, a 63-60 win over Toledo.

- NIU ranks No. 2 in the conference in scoring defense (17.9 ppg), total defense (375.4 ypg) and tackles for loss.

- Toledo kicker Jeremiah Detmer has made 13 straight field goals.

- Toledo's band won't be making the trip to the game. The school is citing costs and school commitments, which is a little strange considering this is the team's biggest rivalry game each season. Toledo says the decision has nothing to do with freshman piccolo player Alex Hritz getting hit last year by NIU linebacker Jamaal Bass.

Game of the Day: Wisconsin at Florida

Wisconsin Badgers at Florida Gators (-5, 121)

Defense is the focal point as Florida hosts Wisconsin on Wednesday. The 20th-ranked Badgers, which posted an 87-47 victory over Southeastern Louisiana in Sunday's opener, led Division I in scoring defense last season. Meanwhile, the Gators allowed just nine first-half points -- setting a shot-clock era team record for fewest points allowed in a half -- during Sunday's 84-35 win against Alabama State.

Both teams have gone to backup plans at point guard. Florida coach Billy Donovan suspended his starter, Scottie Wilbekin, last week and said Tuesday he's highly unlikely to play against the Badgers. Wisconsin's earmarked starter Josh Gasser tore his ACL in preseason practice.

TV: ESPN2, 7 p.m.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (1-0): The Badgers are facing a top-10 opponent on the road in November for the second straight season. forward Mike Bruesewitz was expected to miss the first month of the season after lacerating his leg in a freak mishap in practice. Instead, Bruesewitz suited up and tallied 10 points in 13 minutes of floor time against Southeastern Louisiana. Having Bruesewitz available will help against Florida's talented front line.

ABOUT FLORIDA (1-0): Donovan challenged his starters prior to the Alabama State game, promising to bench the entire quintet quickly if he didn't like their play. The Gators responded by taking an 8-0 lead and 8 percent shooting in the first half. Kenny Boynton, who leads all active SEC players in career scoring, is playing the point in Wilbekin's absence. Boynton had 22 points and five assists Sunday, surpassing Neal Walk to become the seventh all-time scorer at Florida.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Southeastern.
* Gators are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Under is 7-1 in Badgers last eight vs. Southeastern.
* Over is 9-3 in Gators last 12 vs. Big Ten.

TIP-INS:

1. Last season marked the second time in the past five years Wisconsin led Division I in scoring defense. The Badgers have ranked in the top 10 in fewest points allowed for six straight years.

2. The Badgers started redshirt freshman George Marshall at PG against Southeastern Louisiana. Marshall became the first freshman to start a Wisconsin season opener since Devin Harris in 2001.

3. Florida junior F Casey Prather will miss the Wisconsin game. Prather is still recovering after suffering two concussions in a nine-day span.

Toledo-NIU Clash for MAC West Title Wednesday

Kickoff: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Northern Illinois -10.5, Total: TBD

Northern Illinois looks to stay unbeaten in MAC play when it hosts high-powered division rival Toledo on Wednesday night.

These MAC West rivals have met for each of the past 15 seasons, with Toledo going 11-4 SU (9-5-1 ATS). But NIU has taken three of four (SU and ATS), including two straight, winning 65-30 in 2010 and 63-60 last year with a game-winning TD with 19 seconds left in regulation. This season, the Huskies have rolled through conference play, going 6-0 (SU and ATS) and winning by an average score of 47.2 to 15.2 PPG. However, the Rockets have also been great in-conference, going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS), with 36.3 PPG, but allowing 28.0 PPG. NIU is the better team, but this spread is way too large. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 8+ straight SU wins, carrying a win pct. of at least 80% facing a good team (60% to 80% win pct.) are just 13-40 ATS (24%) since 1992. Also, Toledo is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and Northern Illinois is just 6-16 ATS (27%) after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992.
The pick here is TOLEDO to win ATS.

Toledo is coming off a 34-27 home loss to Ball State, where it outgained the Cardinals 526 to 446 in total yards and 311 to 166 in rushing yards. David Fluellen rushed for 200 of those on 34 carries (5.9 YPC), giving him a ridiculous 1,094 rushing yards (182 per game) and 9 TD in six games versus MAC opponents this year. He is now tied for second in the nation with 138.1 rushing YPG, averaging a hefty 6.0 YPC this year. Fluellen had just eight carries for 31 yards in last year's loss to NIU. Rockets QB Terrance Owens played sparingly in the 2011 meeting with the Huskies (1-for-2, 3 yds), but totaled 211 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the 2010 loss in Dekalb. Owens has been solid this season (2,412 pass yds, 14 TD, 5 INT), but has thrown just 5 TD and 5 INT over his past six games. The Rockets defense continues to struggle in 2012, especially against the pass, where they allow 288 passing YPG (9th-most in FBS). They have surrendered at least 200 passing yards in all 10 of their games this year, giving up 280 in last week's loss to Ball State. Toledo's run defense has also been shoddy in the past four weeks, allowing 228 rushing YPG on 6.1 YPC. The one positive for the defense is that the Rockets continue to force turnovers, tallying 14 takeaways in the past six games. They could be without senior S Mark Singer (41 tackles, 2 INT), who missed last week's loss with a knee injury.

Northern Illinois ranks ninth in the nation in scoring (40.6 PPG), thanks mostly to dual-threat QB Jordan Lynch, whose 352 total YPG is fourth-most in the nation and his 134 rushing YPG ranks fifth among all FBS players. The junior has not thrown an interception in MAC play this year (155 pass attempts), piling up 12 TD through the air and 11 TD on the ground during this six-game stretch. Senior WR Martel Moore has 8 touchdown grabs in his past nine games, but in three career meetings versus Toledo, he's totaled just five catches for 37 yards. The NIU defense has given up just 17.9 PPG (15th in FBS), holding three of the past four opponents to seven points or less, including last week's 63-0 shutout of Massachusetts. The Huskies have gotten great penetration at the line with 2.8 sacks per game (T-17th in FBS), including a MAC-best 7.4 Tackles For Loss per game. They have also done a stellar job of forcing mistakes, causing 16 turnovers in six games versus MAC opponents.

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Ohio at Ball State[/h] The Bobcats look to take advantage of a Ball State team that is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 home games. Ohio is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+6). Here are all of the weekday games.

DCI College Football

The Daniel Curry Index

Week 12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 879-298 (.747)
ATS: 329-326 (.502)
ATS Vary Units: 2086-1983 (.513)
Over/Under: 297-290 (.506)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1012-685 (.596)

Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Mid-American Conference
BALL STATE 37, Ohio 28
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 45, Toledo 32

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[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Indiana at Milwaukee[/h]The Pacers look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is coming off a 105-96 win over Philadelphia and is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU victory. Indiana is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

DCI Pro Basketball

The Daniel Curry Index
11/14/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 67-36 (.650)
ATS: 48-57 (.457)
ATS Vary Units: 180-189 (.488)
Over/Under: 55-50 (.524)
Over/Under Vary Units: 122-96 (.560)

PHILADELPHIA 96, Detroit 83
BOSTON 98, Utah 92
MILWAUKEE 98, Indiana 95
HOUSTON 97, New Orleans 92
OKLAHOMA CITY 101, Memphis 94
MINNESOTA 104, Charlotte 90
DALLAS 101, Washington 92
PHOENIX 96, Chicago 95
Miami 96, L.A. CLIPPERS 94
Atlanta 99, GOLDEN STATE 96

[h=1]NCAA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Wisconsin at Florida[/h]The Gators are coming off an 84-35 win over Alabama State and look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Florida is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Gators favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

DCI College Basketball

The Daniel Curry Index
11/14/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 195-53 (.786)
ATS: 60-60 (.500)
ATS Vary Units: 240-293 (.450)
Over/Under: 13-14 (.481)
Over/Under Vary Units: 29-16 (.644)

Battle 4 Atlantis
Opening Round at Cedar Rapids, IA
NORTHERN IOWA 69, Toledo 55

CBE Hall of Fame Classic
Regional Rounds at campus sites
SAINT LOUIS 83, Santa Clara 55
WASHINGTON STATE 77, Utah Valley 57

Global Sports Hoops Showcase
Round Robin at Laramie, WY
South Dakota 71, Southern 68
WYOMING 65, North Carolina Central 51

Legends Classic
Regional Round at Raleigh, NC
GEORGETOWN 78, Liberty 49

NUCDF Basketball Challenge
Round Robin at San Diego, CA
SAN DIEGO 82, Northern Kentucky 59

Non-Conference
CREIGHTON 75, Uab 62
DENVER 71, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 49
FLORIDA 62, Wisconsin 60
Fresno State 63, UC RIVERSIDE 58
GARDNER-WEBB 70, Lipscomb 68
GEORGIA TECH 63, Presbyterian 54
HOLY CROSS 69, Maine 56
LOUISIANA TECH 72, Ualr 63
LOYOLA (MD.) 82, Umbc 53
Marist 70, COLGATE 67
NAVY 60, Binghamton 54
SACRAMENTO STATE 72, CSU Bakersfield 71
SAVANNAH STATE 65, North Florida 61
St. Bonaventure 73, CORNELL 62
TEXAS TECH 78, Omaha 61
Wagner 70, DELAWARE STATE 65
Western Illinois 65, SIUE 59

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