Investment plays 10-6 +$7875.00
Action plays 25-21-1 +$342.00
Total 35-27-1 +$8217.00
411 system now 11-4 73%
On a 17-3 run the last 3 weeks
How to Establish Your Own Bet Size
Once you've pegged your maximum total risk, the next step is to establish an individual bet size. Right here is where most bettors fail. Unlike deciding what part of your bankroll you are willing to risk at one time, the proportional size of your bets is much less adaptable to personal taste. Most bettors don't go broke because they can't pick winners; they go broke because their individual bets are too high in proportion to their working capital. It may be tenable to have 20 percent of your working capital at risk at one time, but only if it's spread across enough different bets. It would be suicide to risk 20 percent on one bet.
With proper bet sizing, even if you get mauled by a long losing streak, you'll still be alive to make a comeback.
Most people don't realize how badly they can lose over a short term even while having a long term advantage. They trust a universe that does not contain enough observations. With a 57.5 percent winning expectation, winning 57 or 58 of the next 100 bets is, indeed, the most likely outcome - but it is only the most likely of very many, only slightly less likely scenarios. When the chances of all the less likely scenarios are added together, it is not likely that the outcome will be exactly 57 or 58 wins.
Winning streaks and losing streaks are guaranteed. They are the nature of the beast; a mathematical certainty. It's an advantage to not deny they exist, and advantage to recognize and understand them, and to be emotionally and financially prepared for them.
If you can survive financially, of course, the emotional part will take care of itself, and in order to survive financially your bet size must not be too large.
Action plays 25-21-1 +$342.00
Total 35-27-1 +$8217.00
411 system now 11-4 73%
On a 17-3 run the last 3 weeks
How to Establish Your Own Bet Size
Once you've pegged your maximum total risk, the next step is to establish an individual bet size. Right here is where most bettors fail. Unlike deciding what part of your bankroll you are willing to risk at one time, the proportional size of your bets is much less adaptable to personal taste. Most bettors don't go broke because they can't pick winners; they go broke because their individual bets are too high in proportion to their working capital. It may be tenable to have 20 percent of your working capital at risk at one time, but only if it's spread across enough different bets. It would be suicide to risk 20 percent on one bet.
With proper bet sizing, even if you get mauled by a long losing streak, you'll still be alive to make a comeback.
Most people don't realize how badly they can lose over a short term even while having a long term advantage. They trust a universe that does not contain enough observations. With a 57.5 percent winning expectation, winning 57 or 58 of the next 100 bets is, indeed, the most likely outcome - but it is only the most likely of very many, only slightly less likely scenarios. When the chances of all the less likely scenarios are added together, it is not likely that the outcome will be exactly 57 or 58 wins.
Winning streaks and losing streaks are guaranteed. They are the nature of the beast; a mathematical certainty. It's an advantage to not deny they exist, and advantage to recognize and understand them, and to be emotionally and financially prepared for them.
If you can survive financially, of course, the emotional part will take care of itself, and in order to survive financially your bet size must not be too large.
