Service Plays Sunday 11/18/12

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GL!

Vegas Runner NFL early steam game of the week

Kansas city

NFLPredictions
Kevin

8-1 last 2 weeks in the NFL

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = DOLPHINS +7.5 and BRONCOS -1.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)


--Notes: I bet this at Bookmaker.eu (you click on the dropdown menu that says "straight" and select teaser). At 5dimes.eu teasers can be found along the left hand side and because of how 5dimes has this shaded you will need to most likely click 6.5 point teaser "ties win" and not "ties reduce". If you don't understand just email me with any questions.


Because this is a Thursday night game I will give out the Miami write up right now, and then the Broncos write up with the other write ups tomorrow or Friday. The Dolphins enter Thursday's game with a 4-5 record and 2-3 record on the road. They've lost two straight after winning three straight, with their latest a brutal 37-3 loss to the Titans. Their last game wasn't who the Dolphins have been this year, as neither their offense or defense showed up. The Dolphins had allowed 24 or fewer points against in all 8 games before Sunday. Buffalo enters the game 3-6 and 1-2 at home. They've lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Although they covered the spread in New England, the Bills have been playing poor football, allowing 21+ points against in 5 of their last 6 and 35+ points against in 4 of those games. Offensively the Bills rank higher than the Dolphins, but Buffalo is 31st in the league defensively allowing 410 yards against per game and last in the NFL allowing 31.7 points against per game (11 more papg than Miami is allowing). The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs divisional opponents and beat the Bills both times they met last season. The Dolphins are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs divisional opponents. Over the last few years the Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in these two teams last 8 meetings. Thursday should be a close game, and the Dolphins have a good shot at pulling off an upset. Take them in the first leg of the teaser getting 7.5.


2 UNIT = Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons - FALCONS -9.5 (-101)
(Note: I'm risking 2.02 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys - BROWNS +8 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -15 (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders - SAINTS -4.5 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.12 units to win 2.00 units)

Green Sheet


************************************************** ***************
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-9½) over Indianapolis
RATING 4 CAROLINA (+1½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 3 OAKLAND (+4½) over New Orleans
RATING 2 NY JETS (+3½) over St. Louis
RATING 1 ARIZONA (+10) over Atlanta

Broad Street Cappers--Sunday
Football:

Redskins -3.5 (1:00pm ET)
Panthers +1.5 (1:00pm ET)

Patriots -9 (4:25pm ET)

Ravens +4 (8:30pm ET)

Prediction Machine
Rams 61 %
Denver 60%
Pitt 59%
Dallas 58%
Car 58%

Jack Edwards Week 11
Sunday "Lock" Indianapolis at New England Pick: Over 53

Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Week 11

( Hot Games To Bet On = Atlanta -9.5, New England -9.5 and San Diego +8.5 )

Miami +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

Atlanta -9.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Jacksonville +15 - 5% Of Bankroll

Oakland +4.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

New England -9.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Carolina +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

N.Y. Jets +3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

San Diego +8.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Pittsburgh +3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

Total Winning % Before Week 11 = +107.5%

GRAND TOTAL For Week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 = + 107.5%
WEEK 10 ( 7-3 )
WEEK 9 ( 2-4 )
WEEK 8 ( 8-1 )
WEEK 7 ( 4-4 )
WEEK 6 ( 4-0 )
WEEK 5 ( 3-5 )
WEEK 4 ( 5-2 )
WEEK 3 ( 3-3 )
Grand Total ( 36 - 22 )

Accuscore
Analyst: 8-2-1 Last Month - Week 11 Picks

Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit Lions
The Packers win this game 65% of the time and by double digits 38% of the time. The Lions have played poorly the past couple seasons against truly quality opponents, and have really struggled this season. Opposing quarterbacks against Detroit are having field days completing about two-thirds of their passes and nearly a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Lions just aren’t a good team this season. It might be time to stop waiting for that to happen.

Cleveland Browns +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys finally showed some life last week scoring 38 points in a big win over the Eagles, so why am I picking against them this weekend? Well for one, it was the Eagles who are the Titanic of this NFL season. Second, Dallas needed a punt return and interception return for scores in the fourth quarter to pull away late. The Browns are coming off a bye week, and should be healthy and rested for this game. They do have Trent Richardson in order to churn some rushing yards, and with the way Dallas has struggled with injuries to their own running backs, Cleveland could shorten the game by maintaining possession even without scoring too many points. AccuScore projects the Browns to cover 55 percent of the time.

XpertPicks

• Play Tampa Bay -1.5 over Carolina (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games and
they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 road games when
the total posted is between 45.5 and 49 points. Tampa Bay has covered
the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off an OVER the total and
they are averaging over 30 points a game on offense in road games this
season.

• Play New Orleans -4.5 over Oakland (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 4:00 PM EST

New Orleans has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games when
playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also covered the
spread in 9 of the last 11 games coming off a home win. New Orleans
has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 overall games and they are
averaging over 27 points a game on offense this season.

• Play Baltimore -3.5 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:30 PM EST

Baltimore has won 19 of the last 25 games when the total posted is
between 35.5 and 42 points and they have also won 13 of the last 16
games vs. division opponents. Baltimore has won 17 of the last 22
games coming off an OVER the total and they have also won 23 of the
last 26 games after having won two of the last three games.

Wildcat (NY POST)
15-5

last week 1-1

Packers - 3 1/2
Colts +9 1/2

Steele Trap
1-1 last week
12-8 for the yr

Pats - 9 1/2
Panthers + 1 1/2

MS. Charleen
19-11 63%

Bills--winner Thursday Night
Lions + 3 1/2
Tampa - 1 1/2

Dave Blezow
2-8 Locks of the year-Saints -5

10-19 3 bb-saints/packers/bengals

Dr M's 2012 OU PLAY OF THE YEAR!! - Dr. Ed Meyer


Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL Total Sun, 11/18/12 - 4:25 PM
triple-dime bet 423 IND / 424 NEP Over 53.5 5Dimes
Analysis:


2012 TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR


The computer outputs thousands of trends for us every week. Here one that we have never used, but it keeps winning. The league is now 18-0 OU in November the week after beating the Jaguars. The SDQL text is:


month=11 and p:W and po:team=Jaguars and NB and 20011125<=date


Indianapolis qualifies for this unusual system. Of course, this is not the reason we have this one going over.


Andrew Luck is not just a good quarterback, he is a great leader as well. It is clear that the Colts have confidence in him and will listen attentively when he speaks. He commands respect from his teammates and here is a great opportunity to get it from the rest of the league.


The Patriots have won with offense this season. They are 4-0 straight up when they score more than thirty points and we think they’ll easily get to this number here.


New England is 13-0 OU the week after a win in which they allowed more than 295 yards passing, including 3-0 OU this season. The SDQL is:


team=Patriots and poY>295 and p:W and NB and 20071203<=date


Also, the Pats are 16-0 OU off a game in which they scored 35-plus points and allowed at least 20 points, as can be seen with this SDQL text.


35<=points and 20<=pooints and team=Patriots and season>=2005


Finally, the Patriots are playing their second straight home game and play on the road vs divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. This has been a HUGE over spot, as TD-plus home favorites in November are 30-0 OU when they play on the road in each of their next two games and they are facing a team that has attempted at least 30.5 passes per game season-to-date. Check it out with this SDQL text:


month=11 and H and line<=-7 and tn:A and tnn:A and oA(passes)>30.5 and 20031120<=date


The reasoning for this one seems straightforward. November is when the contenders emerge. By December, many of the races are all but over. When a team is a big home favorite, they don’t need to have both the offense and the defense playing at 110%. They have the luxury of putting the onus of the victory on the offense and saving the defense for the upcoming road games. So, their goal is to outscore rather than out defend their opponent. The Ravens were in just this spot last week when they put up 55 on the Raiders, allowing their defense to “go through the motions” and save their fierce intensity level for their upcoming road games. When they get an opponent that passes the ball frequently, these games go flying over the posted number – thirty straight since Thanksgiving 2003.


If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills put up 31 points in New England, the Andrew Luck and the Colts should be good for at least this amount. The weather looks perfect for football in Foxboro on Sunday. Take these two OVER.


MTi’s FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 41 Indianapolis 38

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (35-15)
1. TB-1.5
2. New Orleans -4.5
3. Cleveland +8
4. Detroit +3.5
5. Pittsburgh +3.5

Lee Sterling from Charlotte radio:

San Fran
Cleveland (He likes them to win outright)
Carolina