[h=1]Betting Dolphins-Bills[/h][h=3]With Miami coming off a blowout loss, value is on Buffalo tonight[/h]
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Two weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins were favored on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Now they're an underdog on the road against the Buffalo Bills. From both a betting and straight-up perspective, no one has a clue what to make of this team.
On "Hard Knocks," the Dolphins seemed like a disaster in waiting. Then a three-game winning streak in October put them in position to contend for a wild-card berth. And then came the loss to the Colts, followed by a 34-point drubbing at home at the hands of the Tennessee Titans.
The biggest reason the Dolphins are so confounding is rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Suppose we redid the 2012 draft today with all the information that we now have at our disposal. There's no doubt that the top two picks would be the same: Andrew Luck would go to the Colts, and Robert Griffin III would be a Redskin. Would Tannehill go third to the Cleveland Browns, a team that needed a quarterback in the 2012 draft? I don't know. When it comes to quarterbacks, it's typically clearer.
ESPN Insider Chris Sprow took a look at Tannehill last month and was impressed with the start of his career.
The Bills, meanwhile, are well on their way to continuing one of the most improbable and sad runs in sports by missing the playoffs for the 13th straight year. Their last playoff game was the Music City Miracle -- when Bill Clinton was president. The league is set up to create as much parity as possible, yet the Bills have had only one winning season (9-7 in 2004) this century.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, fans have shown solid support for the Bills at the essentially pick 'em line. The Bills almost beat the New England Patriots on the road last week while the Dolphins put forth possibly the worst performance in the league, so you know how the always reactionary public is going to assess the game.
Let's get line analysis from Jay Kornegay and a pick on the game from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com.
Kornegay says: "This AFC East battle opened a pick 'em but the Bills have received most of the attention and currently stand -2.5. The total has also moved a bit from 45 to 45.5. Whenever we have a game in an area that weather could be a factor, some sharps either anticipate weather (bet the under and dog early) or wait until the forecast is confirmed. The dog and under scenario is not available for this game due to the short spread number. The sharps interested in playing this game waited for the forecast and played accordingly.
"Looking around at all the books, it seems to be a mixed bag. The closing numbers will vary as the books are receiving split action. I expect to see -1.5 to -2.5 once we get to kickoff. I also expect the total to remain close to 45.5 unless the weather breaks."
Prediction: Line will be in between -1.5 and -2.5; total will stay close to 45.5 pending weather change.
Selvaggio says: "Both of these teams are coming off losses, but if you look carefully, you see totally different results. The Dolphins' 37-3 loss wasn't as bad as the score indicates. Miami deserved to lose but was only outgained 4.9 yards per play to 4.6 YPP and by about 40 total yards. The four extra turnovers is what made the score worse than it should have been.
"While Miami was getting blown out as a 6.5-point home favorite to the lowly Titans, the Bills were in a fight with one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo lost 37-31, but I came out of the game impressed with the Bills. They outgained New England 6.8 YPP to 5.1 YPP and by 134 total yards. A minus-3 turnover margin did the Bills in.
"The Bills have a strong running game, and even though Fred Jackson is out, I don't expect a drop off with C.J. Spiller averaging an incredible 7.3 yards per rush on the season. The Dolphins' once stout run defense has become a little leaky the past month, as they have allowed at least 5 yards per carry in three of the past four weeks. The only time in that stretch they were effective against the run was when Andrew Luck was torching them for over 500 yards of total offense.
"The Bills run defense has been atrocious this year, and they rank last in my defensive rush rankings. However, I'm not sure that Miami will even be able to take full advantage of it. Over the last six games, the YPR the Dolphins have put up are as follows: 3.1, 2.3, 1.2, 3.5, 5.0, 4.0.
"I have two math models. The first one that weighs all of the games equally favors the Bills by 2.5 points. The second, which weighs recent performance a little more heavily, makes this game Buffalo -3.5.
"Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table, which is based on them not having much luck in the turnover department. To be fair, Miami hasn't had much luck with turnovers either this year (minus-6 TO differential). Miami also qualifies in a bounce-back situation of mine. So situationally, there is a slight lean toward Miami.
"Still, with fundamentals favoring the Bills, the home-field advantage, my numbers and models saying there is value at anything less than 3 and Miami having to travel on a short week, I like the Bills. I would recommend taking them at anything -2.5 or less."
Selvaggio's ATS pick: Bills
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By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Two weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins were favored on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Now they're an underdog on the road against the Buffalo Bills. From both a betting and straight-up perspective, no one has a clue what to make of this team.
On "Hard Knocks," the Dolphins seemed like a disaster in waiting. Then a three-game winning streak in October put them in position to contend for a wild-card berth. And then came the loss to the Colts, followed by a 34-point drubbing at home at the hands of the Tennessee Titans.
The biggest reason the Dolphins are so confounding is rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Suppose we redid the 2012 draft today with all the information that we now have at our disposal. There's no doubt that the top two picks would be the same: Andrew Luck would go to the Colts, and Robert Griffin III would be a Redskin. Would Tannehill go third to the Cleveland Browns, a team that needed a quarterback in the 2012 draft? I don't know. When it comes to quarterbacks, it's typically clearer.
ESPN Insider Chris Sprow took a look at Tannehill last month and was impressed with the start of his career.
The Bills, meanwhile, are well on their way to continuing one of the most improbable and sad runs in sports by missing the playoffs for the 13th straight year. Their last playoff game was the Music City Miracle -- when Bill Clinton was president. The league is set up to create as much parity as possible, yet the Bills have had only one winning season (9-7 in 2004) this century.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, fans have shown solid support for the Bills at the essentially pick 'em line. The Bills almost beat the New England Patriots on the road last week while the Dolphins put forth possibly the worst performance in the league, so you know how the always reactionary public is going to assess the game.
Let's get line analysis from Jay Kornegay and a pick on the game from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com.
[h=3]Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills[/h]
Spread:Opened at pick 'em; now Bills minus-2.5
Total: Opened at 45; now 45.5
<offer>Spread:Opened at pick 'em; now Bills minus-2.5
Total: Opened at 45; now 45.5
Kornegay says: "This AFC East battle opened a pick 'em but the Bills have received most of the attention and currently stand -2.5. The total has also moved a bit from 45 to 45.5. Whenever we have a game in an area that weather could be a factor, some sharps either anticipate weather (bet the under and dog early) or wait until the forecast is confirmed. The dog and under scenario is not available for this game due to the short spread number. The sharps interested in playing this game waited for the forecast and played accordingly.
"Looking around at all the books, it seems to be a mixed bag. The closing numbers will vary as the books are receiving split action. I expect to see -1.5 to -2.5 once we get to kickoff. I also expect the total to remain close to 45.5 unless the weather breaks."
Prediction: Line will be in between -1.5 and -2.5; total will stay close to 45.5 pending weather change.
Selvaggio says: "Both of these teams are coming off losses, but if you look carefully, you see totally different results. The Dolphins' 37-3 loss wasn't as bad as the score indicates. Miami deserved to lose but was only outgained 4.9 yards per play to 4.6 YPP and by about 40 total yards. The four extra turnovers is what made the score worse than it should have been.
"While Miami was getting blown out as a 6.5-point home favorite to the lowly Titans, the Bills were in a fight with one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo lost 37-31, but I came out of the game impressed with the Bills. They outgained New England 6.8 YPP to 5.1 YPP and by 134 total yards. A minus-3 turnover margin did the Bills in.
"The Bills have a strong running game, and even though Fred Jackson is out, I don't expect a drop off with C.J. Spiller averaging an incredible 7.3 yards per rush on the season. The Dolphins' once stout run defense has become a little leaky the past month, as they have allowed at least 5 yards per carry in three of the past four weeks. The only time in that stretch they were effective against the run was when Andrew Luck was torching them for over 500 yards of total offense.
"The Bills run defense has been atrocious this year, and they rank last in my defensive rush rankings. However, I'm not sure that Miami will even be able to take full advantage of it. Over the last six games, the YPR the Dolphins have put up are as follows: 3.1, 2.3, 1.2, 3.5, 5.0, 4.0.
"I have two math models. The first one that weighs all of the games equally favors the Bills by 2.5 points. The second, which weighs recent performance a little more heavily, makes this game Buffalo -3.5.
"Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table, which is based on them not having much luck in the turnover department. To be fair, Miami hasn't had much luck with turnovers either this year (minus-6 TO differential). Miami also qualifies in a bounce-back situation of mine. So situationally, there is a slight lean toward Miami.
"Still, with fundamentals favoring the Bills, the home-field advantage, my numbers and models saying there is value at anything less than 3 and Miami having to travel on a short week, I like the Bills. I would recommend taking them at anything -2.5 or less."
Selvaggio's ATS pick: Bills
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