[h=1]Betting UFC 154: St-Pierre-Condit[/h][h=3]Finding betting value in all the UFC 154 fights[/h]
By John Candido | FightMetric
UFC 154 features one of the most compelling fights we've seen in some time. Just four times in the UFC's history has a champion faced an interim champion to unify the title. In this case, one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Georges St-Pierre, will be returning from a long rehabilitation following knee surgery to face interim champ Carlos Condit.
<inline1>Will St-Pierre be the same dominant champion in his return, or will ring rust from nearly a year's layoff be a factor? I'll consider how this affects the odds and take a look at the numbers behind the fights to see if there are some value bets for Saturday night's card.
<center>[h=3]Johny Hendricks (minus-145) vs. Martin Kampmann (plus-125)[/h]</center><offer>Few fighters in MMA are more dangerous in both the stand-up and the ground game than Hendricks. Not only is Hendricks a seasoned wrestler with a solid All-American background, but he also has some of the most powerful and explosive hands in the sport.
In measuring him against Martin Kampmann, who has a solid, above-average skill set in every area but nothing as spectacular or dynamic as Hendricks, the stats make a much more solid case for Hendricks as a favorite than the line would indicate.
Though both Hendricks and Kampmann have a similar strikes landed per minute rate (3.24 to 3.29), the significant difference is Hendricks' dangerous combination of power and speed. Though his background is in wrestling, Hendricks has gained seven out of his 13 wins by knockout in his career. Compare this to Kampmann, who suffered three of his five losses by knockout, and Kampmann looks to be in trouble in the stand-up, which is where The Hitman should have his biggest technical advantage in this fight.
What is most impressive about Hendricks, though, is his incredibly high 4.62 takedowns per 15 minutes rate. Though Kampmann has a high 78 percent takedown defense and a very high 2.26 submissions per 15 minutes, it shouldn't be a problem for Hendricks, since he has never been submitted in his career and has never had a problem taking opponents down. With Hendricks having the ability to put Kampmann in a dangerous position, regardless of where this fight might end up, consider him a terrific deal at minus-145.
Insider's value pick: Hendricks
<center>[h=3]Main event: Five rounds[/h]</center><center>[h=3]Georges St-Pierre (minus-340) vs. Carlos Condit (plus-280)[/h]</center>
A year ago, when Condit and St-Pierre were originally scheduled to fight at UFC 137, St-Pierre was upward of a minus-500 favorite. There is an obvious reason why the price is lower than where it was. Though St-Pierre has some of the most impressive numbers in MMA, they come with somewhat of a caveat this time around, as the impact of his knee injury won't be known until he steps into the Octagon on Saturday night and attempts his first takedown.
What is most impressive about St-Pierre is that he has arguably the best takedowns in the sport. St-Pierre is known for being one of the best pure athletes in the sport. His 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes has proved to be his bread and butter throughout his reign as welterweight champ.
In many of St-Pierre's recent fights, opponents were simply unable to stay on their feet, and with Condit possessing a subpar 46 percent takedown defense, it's likely the same fate is in store for him.
However, there is a scenario that all bettors who are considering St-Pierre a great value should consider:
In the event he can't rely so heavily on his takedowns due to some effect from his injury, St-Pierre might find himself standing with Condit, which could prove troublesome. With Condit landing 3.27 strikes per minute and having won 13 fights by knockout, Condit could use his explosive striking to catch St-Pierre in an awkward moment. Though St-Pierre has a very good 3.79 SLpM, most of that has been set up by the threat of his takedown or landed while already on the ground.
If his takedown isn't as effective as it has been in the past, and if his striking proves to be a little rusty as well, St-Pierre could find himself getting caught by an opponent who has been known to change the course of a fight with a single strike. Since most of this depends on whether St-Pierre is the same as before the injury, consider this one a stay away at minus-340.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
<center>[h=3]Mark Hominick (minus-320) vs. Pablo Garza (plus-260)[/h]</center>
Hominick is no stranger to upsets. Consider his fight with "The Korean Zombie" Jung Chan-Sung, in which he was a whopping minus-560 favorite only to be caught with a punch and knocked out in the first seven seconds of the first round. Though Hominick is a terrific fundamental fighter and has a very good technical stand-up ability, he has seemed to have problems with certain stylistic matchups. Going against Garza, he might just be up against a similar type of mismatch, as Garza presents a unique challenge as a 6-foot-1 featherweight.
Specifically, Hominick has had trouble with opponents who have a more aggressive striking style and will not fight them in a traditional technical fashion. Garza is anything but traditional, with previous victories coming by such means as a flying knee and a flying triangle choke. Put simply, Garza has used his imposing size at featherweight to create difficult matchups for his opponents.
This should be especially true against the much shorter Hominick, as Garza has a four-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage.
Furthermore, Hominick has demonstrated a significant weakness in defending submissions, having lost in this manner five times. With Garza attaining seven out of 11 victories via submission and maintaining a 1.53 submission attempts per 15 minutes rate, Hominick might find himself in trouble should this fight go to the ground. With Hominick absorbing a high degree of damage in general, boasting a high 3.83 strikes absorbed per minute rate, Garza should have more than enough opportunity to overwhelm the smaller Hominick in the stand-up. Therefore, consider Garza a good value at plus-260 against Hominick, who hasn't been the most reliable favorite in the past.
Insider's value pick: Garza
<center>[h=3]Constantinos Philippou (minus-245) vs. Nick Ring (plus-205)[/h]</center>
Saying Ring has delivered less than impressive performances in his UFC career would be an understatement. Aside from a third-round submission victory against James Head, Ring's career in the Octagon has consisted of a unanimous decision loss to Tim Boetsch and two controversial decision victories that could just as easily have gone to Riki Fukuda and Court McGee. Though Ring will be a hometown Canadian favorite -- with the possibility for another controversial decision win -- Philippou has what it takes to not let this fight get to the judges in the first place.
For one, Philippou has polished off six of his 11 victories by knockout or submission. Philippou has also defeated both of the opponents who were edged out by Ring, Fukuda and McGee. Though Ring's striking numbers are above average, he tends to take a lot of damage in doing so, absorbing 3.62 strikes per minute. Compared to Philippou, who takes only 2.64 SApM, and given the difference in the nature of strikes that Philippou has compared to Ring, the difference should bode well for Philippou and makes the possibility of a knockout finish likely.
Philippou has never been knocked out in his career, so he shouldn't have much fear standing and trading with Ring. On the other hand, if either fighter decides to try to score points in the ground game, Philippou will find it much easier to take down Ring than Ring will find taking down Philippou, as Philippou has a very high 89 percent takedown defense.
Barring another controversial decision in Ring's favor, Philippou should be able to get the best of Ring standing, if not finish him off within three rounds. Consider Philippou a good value against the overrated Ring at minus-245.
Insider's value pick: Philippou
</offer></inline1>
By John Candido | FightMetric
UFC 154 features one of the most compelling fights we've seen in some time. Just four times in the UFC's history has a champion faced an interim champion to unify the title. In this case, one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Georges St-Pierre, will be returning from a long rehabilitation following knee surgery to face interim champ Carlos Condit.
<inline1>Will St-Pierre be the same dominant champion in his return, or will ring rust from nearly a year's layoff be a factor? I'll consider how this affects the odds and take a look at the numbers behind the fights to see if there are some value bets for Saturday night's card.
<center>[h=3]Johny Hendricks (minus-145) vs. Martin Kampmann (plus-125)[/h]</center><offer>Few fighters in MMA are more dangerous in both the stand-up and the ground game than Hendricks. Not only is Hendricks a seasoned wrestler with a solid All-American background, but he also has some of the most powerful and explosive hands in the sport.
In measuring him against Martin Kampmann, who has a solid, above-average skill set in every area but nothing as spectacular or dynamic as Hendricks, the stats make a much more solid case for Hendricks as a favorite than the line would indicate.
Though both Hendricks and Kampmann have a similar strikes landed per minute rate (3.24 to 3.29), the significant difference is Hendricks' dangerous combination of power and speed. Though his background is in wrestling, Hendricks has gained seven out of his 13 wins by knockout in his career. Compare this to Kampmann, who suffered three of his five losses by knockout, and Kampmann looks to be in trouble in the stand-up, which is where The Hitman should have his biggest technical advantage in this fight.
What is most impressive about Hendricks, though, is his incredibly high 4.62 takedowns per 15 minutes rate. Though Kampmann has a high 78 percent takedown defense and a very high 2.26 submissions per 15 minutes, it shouldn't be a problem for Hendricks, since he has never been submitted in his career and has never had a problem taking opponents down. With Hendricks having the ability to put Kampmann in a dangerous position, regardless of where this fight might end up, consider him a terrific deal at minus-145.
Insider's value pick: Hendricks
<center>[h=3]Main event: Five rounds[/h]</center><center>[h=3]Georges St-Pierre (minus-340) vs. Carlos Condit (plus-280)[/h]</center>
A year ago, when Condit and St-Pierre were originally scheduled to fight at UFC 137, St-Pierre was upward of a minus-500 favorite. There is an obvious reason why the price is lower than where it was. Though St-Pierre has some of the most impressive numbers in MMA, they come with somewhat of a caveat this time around, as the impact of his knee injury won't be known until he steps into the Octagon on Saturday night and attempts his first takedown.
What is most impressive about St-Pierre is that he has arguably the best takedowns in the sport. St-Pierre is known for being one of the best pure athletes in the sport. His 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes has proved to be his bread and butter throughout his reign as welterweight champ.
In many of St-Pierre's recent fights, opponents were simply unable to stay on their feet, and with Condit possessing a subpar 46 percent takedown defense, it's likely the same fate is in store for him.
However, there is a scenario that all bettors who are considering St-Pierre a great value should consider:
In the event he can't rely so heavily on his takedowns due to some effect from his injury, St-Pierre might find himself standing with Condit, which could prove troublesome. With Condit landing 3.27 strikes per minute and having won 13 fights by knockout, Condit could use his explosive striking to catch St-Pierre in an awkward moment. Though St-Pierre has a very good 3.79 SLpM, most of that has been set up by the threat of his takedown or landed while already on the ground.
If his takedown isn't as effective as it has been in the past, and if his striking proves to be a little rusty as well, St-Pierre could find himself getting caught by an opponent who has been known to change the course of a fight with a single strike. Since most of this depends on whether St-Pierre is the same as before the injury, consider this one a stay away at minus-340.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
<center>[h=3]Mark Hominick (minus-320) vs. Pablo Garza (plus-260)[/h]</center>
Hominick is no stranger to upsets. Consider his fight with "The Korean Zombie" Jung Chan-Sung, in which he was a whopping minus-560 favorite only to be caught with a punch and knocked out in the first seven seconds of the first round. Though Hominick is a terrific fundamental fighter and has a very good technical stand-up ability, he has seemed to have problems with certain stylistic matchups. Going against Garza, he might just be up against a similar type of mismatch, as Garza presents a unique challenge as a 6-foot-1 featherweight.
Specifically, Hominick has had trouble with opponents who have a more aggressive striking style and will not fight them in a traditional technical fashion. Garza is anything but traditional, with previous victories coming by such means as a flying knee and a flying triangle choke. Put simply, Garza has used his imposing size at featherweight to create difficult matchups for his opponents.
This should be especially true against the much shorter Hominick, as Garza has a four-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage.
Furthermore, Hominick has demonstrated a significant weakness in defending submissions, having lost in this manner five times. With Garza attaining seven out of 11 victories via submission and maintaining a 1.53 submission attempts per 15 minutes rate, Hominick might find himself in trouble should this fight go to the ground. With Hominick absorbing a high degree of damage in general, boasting a high 3.83 strikes absorbed per minute rate, Garza should have more than enough opportunity to overwhelm the smaller Hominick in the stand-up. Therefore, consider Garza a good value at plus-260 against Hominick, who hasn't been the most reliable favorite in the past.
Insider's value pick: Garza
<center>[h=3]Constantinos Philippou (minus-245) vs. Nick Ring (plus-205)[/h]</center>
Saying Ring has delivered less than impressive performances in his UFC career would be an understatement. Aside from a third-round submission victory against James Head, Ring's career in the Octagon has consisted of a unanimous decision loss to Tim Boetsch and two controversial decision victories that could just as easily have gone to Riki Fukuda and Court McGee. Though Ring will be a hometown Canadian favorite -- with the possibility for another controversial decision win -- Philippou has what it takes to not let this fight get to the judges in the first place.
For one, Philippou has polished off six of his 11 victories by knockout or submission. Philippou has also defeated both of the opponents who were edged out by Ring, Fukuda and McGee. Though Ring's striking numbers are above average, he tends to take a lot of damage in doing so, absorbing 3.62 strikes per minute. Compared to Philippou, who takes only 2.64 SApM, and given the difference in the nature of strikes that Philippou has compared to Ring, the difference should bode well for Philippou and makes the possibility of a knockout finish likely.
Philippou has never been knocked out in his career, so he shouldn't have much fear standing and trading with Ring. On the other hand, if either fighter decides to try to score points in the ground game, Philippou will find it much easier to take down Ring than Ring will find taking down Philippou, as Philippou has a very high 89 percent takedown defense.
Barring another controversial decision in Ring's favor, Philippou should be able to get the best of Ring standing, if not finish him off within three rounds. Consider Philippou a good value against the overrated Ring at minus-245.
Insider's value pick: Philippou
</offer></inline1>
