Week 11 Stinkers

WK 1 // 3-3
WK 2 // 5-3-1
Wk 3 // 7-3
Wk 4 // 1-9
Wk 5 // 6-3
Wk 6 // 5-4
Wk 7 // 2-5-1
Wk 8 // 2-6
Wk 9 // 4-8
Wk 10 // 4-6

Four consecutive losing weeks. Beginning to feel like Rosie's Mr Loser. Fade away.

Green Bay -3' (@ Det)
Here's Green Bay's game by game record after a bye under Mike McCarthy.
2011 -5' @ SDo W 45-38
2010 -3 @ Min W 31-3
2009 -14 vs Det W 26-0
2008 +3' @ Ten W 16-19
2007 +3 @ Den W 19-13
2006 +5' @ Mia W 34-24
Looks like it's not a good thing to have this team on your schedule when McCarthy has extra time to prepare.

Add:

Atlanta -9' (vs Azo)
Check out Riderx' "OMAR" thread. Those guys did most of the work. I helped a teeny bit.


Add:

Kansas Shitty +3' (vs Cin)
I've never seen this before. Through nine games, Kansas City has yet to win the turnover battle in any game. They tied for the second time in their last game in Pittsburgh. I'm gonna think that finally in the Pittsburgh game they figured out how disastrous turnovers are to game outcomes. This week they host a team who has yet to win the turnover battle on the road this year. I think it's time for the turnovers to break for the Chiefs. At home. Getting points. Yep, sucker me in.


Add:

PhillyDilly +3' (@ Wash)
So using the new ESPN QBR (quarterback rating) that StatMan brought to our attention, I see Michael Vick ranked as the 27th best (more like worst) QB in the NFL this year. The guy had 14 turnovers and only 11 TDs. Can Foles be worse than that? Philly is 1-8 ATS. The linesmaker has been overrating Vick and will now underrate his replacement. By the way, under Shanahan, the Skins are 0-2 SU and ATS after their bye. Both of those losses came against today's opponent, Philly. Time for Philly to get their second ATS win of the season.


Add:

Tampa Bay -1 (@ Car)
There are four teams left in the NFL who have not lost any game by more than a touchdown this year. Two of them you'd probably guess - Atlanta and New England. Two of them aren't getting the respect they deserve - Seattle and Tampa Bay.
Here are the accumulated point spreads for these teams (including this week):
-69 New England
-34 Atlanta
+7 Seattle
+15' Tampa Bay
Value Tampa Bay


Add:

Jacksonville +15 (@ Hou)
Time for the Texans to throw their helmets on the field and expect to walkoff with a win. Playin' a 1-7 team who they already beat 27-7. But beware. Jax is now playing for pride only. I think they'd like nothing better than to knock off King Houston. Can they do it? Well they have 4 ATS wins. They got all four in their four road games this year where they have always been competetive. Gabbert now has two solid wideouts in Laurent Robinson (back from injury) and Cecil Shorts (an emerging NFL star). They should be able to put up enough points to stay within this big number against an uninspired group of Texans.

Gl today. Do you remember I.M. Bettor in the Boston Herald? You're style reminds me of him.

Yea. Met IM in person. The guy was a great handicapper before the internet changed the betting world, forcing bookies to adjust their lines to account for guys like IM Bettor. This is a much tougher game to beat today for the intelligent bettor than it was fifteen years ago. The successful handicapping methods only embraced by a few years ago, are now mainstream. The book has adjusted.

Good luck DD. You're not in Cary, are you?

Michelangelo said:

Yea. Met IM in person. The guy was a great handicapper before the internet changed the betting world, forcing bookies to adjust their lines to account for guys like IM Bettor. This is a much tougher game to beat today for the intelligent bettor than it was fifteen years ago. The successful handicapping methods only embraced by a few years ago, are now mainstream. The book has adjusted.

Good luck DD. You're not in Cary, are you?

Click to expand...

Ya in Cary.

used to love reading him, he was a pretty sharp and witty guy. But you hit it right on the head, they have adjusted for his style. Not like it used to be, to say the least. Lol, every week he'd be opposite DD.

Your initials aren't JG are they DD?

///

Atlanta, Kansas City, and Philly are sleep walking. Dallas is snoring. Thank God I don't have them. I'd be super pissed. Who goes first, Crennell, Garrett, or Reed?

Add:

Denver -7' (vs SDo)
Divisional game. One team led by a winner, Peyton; the other led by a loser, Rivers. That's the only analysis I have.

Friggin' San Diego. Useless backdoor bumbling bumberclucks.

Monday:

Chicago + (@ San Fran) (Think I can get +4)

Two of the NFL's best Defenses square off with two kinda tough to measure quarterbacks. Kinda tough. Unless we look at what we know.

Campbell is a guy who has always protected the ball. He's been in the league for six years with two crappy teams, Wash ('06-'09), and Oak ('10-'11'). In those six years he's had between 6 and 16 starts each year. In each of those years he's thrown more TDs than ints. He can also run a little when he has to to keep defenses honest or to get the big first down. He does tend to put the ball on the ground but I'm gonna take my chances that experience has taught him not to do that. It's also less likely that he will tonight as San Fran doesn't often blitz.

Kapernicknickpuss is a rookie. The Chicago D throws a lot of different looks at a QB. I think they'll have this kid confused, second guessing himself, and put him in positions where the turnovers are likely.

I think both of these teams, with Cutler and Smith behind center, are better than Atlanta. So this could well be a preview of the NFC championship game, unless the Pack has something to say about it. Should be a bruisin' game. The best kind.

Good luck.