Exbookie wants to help the Players week 12

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EX BOOKIE
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Investment plays 10-7 +$5775.00
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Total 37-30-1 +$6237.00
411 system now 11-5 68%


short week for me...been non stop trying to find the picks Best thing I did last week was cut back on some plays....This week looks easy


Trends That Really Work

I am not comfortable referring to the following cases as being "trends." I don't like the word. Nevertheless, for lack of a more definitive term at the moment, let's call them "trends", even though each one has substantial causative evidence backing up the accompanying conclusion.....

1. Last year's Super Bowl winner tends to do poorly against the line early in the new season.
There are apparently several causative reasons why this "trend" continues year after year. The biggest reason is probably the general betting public's tendency to overrate favorites. It is common knowledge that the average bettor overrates last year's Super Bowl winner, therefore linemakers adjust the posted line accordingly, adding points to the pointspread.
A second reason concerns the motivations of the players on both teams. Those players on the team that won the Super Bowl have been World Champions all year long. BY now, they believe it. It would be difficult to describe them as being "hungry." No matter how good their coaches might be at motivational speaking, you can be sure their training camp did not exhibit an all-out effort on the players' part. Going into the new season they expect a victory.
On the other hand, think about the situation in which the players on the other team find themselves. They are getting ready to play the Super Bowl champions. It is self-evident that these players figure to be keyed up for the confrontation. They desire a victory.
We'll take desire over expect any time. Keep in mind, all these guys are professional athletes. They do this for a living. The difference in physical ability between professional sports teams is almost negligible.
Other supportive reasons for this particular "trend" include player replacement due to trades, retirement, etc. It is highly likely that both teams have replaced several players and/or coaches, and such a circumstance tends to equalize any differences in ability.

2. Home teams on Monday Night tend to do better than expected.
This is a very well known "trend" that gets bad-mouthed every year as having run itself out. It hasn't run itself out and it most likely never will.
Those teams featured on ABC's/ESPNs Monday Night Football are those teams that figure to generate the highest televisions ratings. It's all about those ratings. Consequently, when the schedules are made out (early in the year), those teams with the highest national level of popularity are set to play on Monday night, and a high nationwide level of popularity usually results when a team is among the best teams in the league.
Professional football games between two 'good' teams tend to be more predictable than games between 'bad' teams or mediocre teams.....that is to say, they are more predictable from a statistical, objective standpoint, without having to weight so much subjectivity into the equation. Good teams have substantial home field advantages, generally much bigger than the 3-point average home field advantage of the league overall, and that home field advantage is magnified to a great extent by the game being featured nationally on Monday night television.
Way back in the Springtime when the schedule was set somebody was keenly aware of those television ratings, and the very last thing ABC/ESPN wants is a quiet home crowd leaving early or even booing their home team. You can bet that every effort was made to line up a very good home team with an almost-but-quite-as-good visitor.

3. 14-or-higher-point underdogs tend to cover pointspreads.
Occasionally in pro football there is such a lopsided match-up that a 14-or-higher pointspread is posted on the game. Take the points. Here's why:
Make no mistake about it, pro football players know pointspreads on their games as soon as those pointspreads are posted. Fourteen-or-more point favorites, already believing they should win the game, are further bolstered by the bookmakers' opinion. They are quick to believe they will win the game with little effort. They've probably had a very easy week of practice. That includes their coaches. It's easy for coaches to regard the game as a 'gimme' game, and a good time to rest any starting players that need rest, or to audition any new players that need auditioning. The 'hunger' is gone from both the players and the coaches on a team that's such a big favorite. In short, they take the game for granted.
Meanwhile, the 14-point underdog is embarrassed by such a wide discrepancy. Both the coaches and the players on the underdog team figure to have their jaws set and their feet planted. They figure to want very badly to make a game of it. It's altogether different from college ball.
Then in the 4th quarter, even if the favorite is leading by 20+ points, consider the natural consequences of the situation. The favorites will quite naturally tend to 'coast.' They will simply try to run out the clock. No sense pouring it on any further. Starters will sit out, no one will throw themselves on any spears in order to gain a couple more yards.
The underdogs don't figure to coast a tall. It's not the same situation as if they were only 3-point underdogs to begin with. Three-point underdogs getting their butt handed to them often tend to 'give up.' Not 14-point underdogs. You can bet you're going to get full effort from these underdogs for the full 60 minutes.



More to Come


Ace
 

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Ace, do you have an article for Key Numbers for Totals as you did with Key Numbers weeks back?


THX
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ace, do you have an article for Key Numbers for Totals as you did with Key Numbers weeks back?


THX

there are 10 key over and under numbers

30...33....37...38...41...44...45...47...48...51....a 1/3 of all games land on those

I will look around for a article
 

leave the gun . take the cannolis
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ACE I GET QUESTIONED ON BUYING PTS...AM I DOING THE RIGHT THING..NFL+CFB I BUY OFF 3..7..10..14..17..21..24...28...ALSO I PLAY THE ML WHEN LAYING 2 PTS OR LESS...AND IN HOOPS I ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK..EXAMPLE KNICKS -4.5 I MAKE IT 4-115.. OR UNDER 178.5 I MAKE IT 188-115..

I HIT 3 GAMES THIS WEEK BUYING PTS PACKERS-2.5 RAVENS-2.5 OVER BRONCOS 46.5

gl
 

EX BOOKIE
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ACE I GET QUESTIONED ON BUYING PTS...AM I DOING THE RIGHT THING..NFL+CFB I BUY OFF 3..7..10..14..17..21..24...28...ALSO I PLAY THE ML WHEN LAYING 2 PTS OR LESS...AND IN HOOPS I ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK..EXAMPLE KNICKS -4.5 I MAKE IT 4-115.. OR UNDER 178.5 I MAKE IT 188-115..

I HIT 3 GAMES THIS WEEK BUYING PTS PACKERS-2.5 RAVENS-2.5 OVER BRONCOS 46.5

gl


its like buying INS in Black JAck....once in a blue moon it helps you

NBA and CBB....dont buy!!!!

as you saw on your 3 NFL plays...it did not matter.

never would I buy a 1/2 point on a total....

I pick a game.. and bet it...I feel its a +6 edge so why would I buy......the two numbers I would is a 3 and a 7...but only looking at the game close.... the better move would be to bring down a -3.5 to a -3 (for a tie) vs bring it down to -2.5....I would take a tie over losing 5-6 times buying the 1/2.....same with 7.5.................now if you have over 10 books....most of the time you can find a good line without buying.
 

leave the gun . take the cannolis
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its like buying INS in Black JAck....once in a blue moon it helps you

NBA and CBB....dont buy!!!!

as you saw on your 3 NFL plays...it did not matter.

never would I buy a 1/2 point on a total....

I pick a game.. and bet it...I feel its a +6 edge so why would I buy......the two numbers I would is a 3 and a 7...but only looking at the game close.... the better move would be to bring down a -3.5 to a -3 (for a tie) vs bring it down to -2.5....I would take a tie over losing 5-6 times buying the 1/2.....same with 7.5.................now if you have over 10 books....most of the time you can find a good line without buying.

THANKS ACE..BoL..I WILL ONLY BUY OFF 3 AND 7,,
 

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Hey Ace,

Does this trend, 2. Home teams on Monday Night tend to do better than expected" apply for thanksgiving games? The thankgiving games are national televised events, so I would think this trend would apply as well

Thanks
 

All-in
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Ace, appreciate your info each week. thought I finally chime in for once.

How are double digit favorites so far this year? This week is chiefs getting 10 against the broncos, probably 10.5+ by kickoff. about thanksgiving, seems books enticing action on the pats, is home field that strong for the jets? BOL this week. :103631605
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ace, appreciate your info each week. thought I finally chime in for once.

How are double digit favorites so far this year? This week is chiefs getting 10 against the broncos, probably 10.5+ by kickoff. about thanksgiving, seems books enticing action on the pats, is home field that strong for the jets? BOL this week. :103631605


Fav of 10 or more is 2-5 this year....low from past years
 

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STATS VS ATS

HOME. 68
AWAY. 82

DOGS 89
FAV. 71

OVER 82
UNDER 79

points that matter 26 games out of 160. 16%
 

EX BOOKIE
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No brain over and under and over sys
over 51.5. 9-6
under 37.5. 3-1

12-7 for the year
 

EX BOOKIE
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going to enjoy Family and friend...so I pass on the 3 games on thanksgiving!

here a great break down of those games


Thanksgiving NFL

HOUSTON TEXANS at DETROIT LIONS (12:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
Las Vegas Spread: Houston by 3, total of 50.5

WON-LOST RECORDS (schedule strength according to USA Today)
Houston: 9-1 (24th ranked schedule)
Detroit: 4-6 (13th ranked schedule)
Houston almost got caught napping last week vs. Jacksonville in and NFC North sandwich situation involving national TV games. Houston beat the Bears in Chicago in a Sunday Night game on NBC, and will now try to knock off Detroit in a holiday game on CBS. The Texans may not be quite as good as that record, because it’s hard to win 90% of your games in this league. They would clearly be a Super Bowl contender even if they were 8-2 against a tougher schedule. Detroit is on the verge of falling out of the NFC Wildcard race after suffering losses to Minnesota and Green Bay.

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL
Houston: +8
Detroit: -7
Big edge for the Texans, who have played very smart football this year as they grind up opponents. Detroit has a high risk/high reward offense that can look great some weeks, but like disasters in others.

OFFENSIVE STATS
Houston: 382.9 yards-per-game on 5.5 yards-per-play
Detroit: 401.7 yards-per-game on 5.7 yards-per-play
Detroit gets the nod here in terms of pure production. But, the turnover category above shows you the coast of their approach. It’s much better in this league to gain 380 yards-per-game without turnovers than it is to gain 400 yards with turnovers.

DEFENSIVE STATS
Houston: 299.2 yards-per-game on 5.0 yards-per-play
Detroit: 328.1 yards-per-game on 5.3 yards-per-play
People may have forgotten how good this Detroit defense is because the team has been a disappointment this season. We have a pair of strong defenses here, that would grade out even closer together if they had played equivalent schedules.
BEST EXPECTATION: Houston is the superior and more consistent team. But, they can be had if Detroit can avoid turnovers and exploit their experience with Thanksgiving preparation. If Detroit stays mistake-prone, they could lose by double digits.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at DALLAS COWBOYS (4:15 p.m. on FOX)
Las Vegas Spread: Dallas by 3, total of 48

WON-LOST RECORDS (schedule strength according to USA Today)
Washington: 4-6 (15th ranked schedule)
Dallas: 5-5 (4th ranked schedule)
Dallas has issues on its offensive line…but they still grade out as a playoff caliber team even though you’ve seen so many highlights of Tony Romo running for his life. If you’re .500 against a killer schedule, then you’re .600 or better against a normal schedule. Washington has played a normal schedule, and is sitting at 4-6.

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL
Washington: +10
Dallas: -9
Normally, you’d expect the rookie to self-destruct and the veteran to play clean football. Washington has been extremely conservative with RGIII, which has helped significantly in this category. They just don’t take many bad risks. Romo can be interception prone, and it only gets worse when he’s running for his life.

OFFENSIVE STATS
Washington: 379.7 yards-per-game on 6.1 yards-per-play
Dallas: 367.4 yards-per-game on 5.6 yards-per-play
Washington’s done a great job with their new offense. Those are really good numbers vs. a league average schedule when you factor in the dearth of turnovers. Dallas is like Detroit…they move the ball but shoot themselves in the foot so often that they can’t maximize the results on the scoreboard.

DEFENSIVE STATS
Washington: 383.8 yards-per-game on 5.9 yards-per-play
Dallas: 318.0 yards-per-game on 5.4 yards-per-play
Pay attention here. Dallas grades out MUCH better even though they’ve played the much tougher schedule! Washington has struggled badly all season on this side of the ball. IF they don’t pressure Romo, they might get lit up again. The Dallas defense may be poised to force punts all day if Washington stays conservative.
BEST EXPECTATION: It will come down to turnovers again. The market sees these teams as even with the early line of Dallas -3. Our indicator stats say this is ONLY true if Romo has turnover troubles. If he doesn’t, then the Cowboys should be able to express their statistical superiority.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NY JETS (8:20 p.m. on NBC)
Las Vegas Spread: New England by 6.5, total of 48.5

WON-LOST RECORDS (schedule strength according to USA Today)
New England: 7-3 (22nd ranked schedule)
NY Jets: 4-6 (5th ranked schedule)
The media has blasted the Jets left and right, but hasn’t pointed out the killer schedule they’ve had to play. They’d be better than 4-6 against a more representative schedule…though probably not much better given the limitations of their quarterback. New England is still seen as a dominant AFC team because they run up the score when things are going well. They might only be a 6-4 team against a league average schedule.

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL
New England: +20
NY Jets: -1
Par for the course for the Patriots. Tom Brady plays clean. The defense benefits from opponents constantly being in catch-up mode. The Jets have found a way to play patiently and avoid panic against the Patriots. They’ll need to do that again to win Thursday Night.

OFFENSIVE STATS
New England: 431.9 yards-per-game on 5.8 yards-per-play
NY Jets: 301.3 yards-per-game on 4.7 yards-per-play
This is about as one-sided as its going to get in the NFL. Particularly when you factor in turnover issues. New England explodes and plays clean most of the time. The Jets are often a disaster waiting to happen, with a high risk/low reward offense that has a very poor yards-per-play number.

DEFENSIVE STATS
New England: 388.7 yards-per-game on 5.9 yards-per-play
NY Jets: 342.0 yards-per-game on 5.2 yards-per-play
The Jets can make it back on defense though. They’ve made a habit of at least slowing down Brady with this current coaching regime. And, they’ve been smart about running clock and moving the ball against this soft New England defense. Many believe the Jets should have won the first meeting in Foxboro a few weeks ago. It will be the defense that has to put them over the top in this rematch.
BEST EXPECTATION: We hate saying that each of the three games comes down to turnovers. When you have quarterbacks like Stafford, Romo, and Sanchez on the field…their volatility is typically what rules the day. Those are the men who will drive pointspread results (as two dogs and one favorite) because that’s the nature of their teams. The Lions, Cowboys, and Jets all have high impact defenses (with two of the three teams matched up against poor defenses on this day). It’s up to the quarterbacks to get the job done.
 

EX BOOKIE
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This is what the line was in week 1 for this weeks games

DET -3
DAL -6
NE -5
CHI -8
CIN -5
PIT -5
BUF -3
KC -1
MIA -3
ATL -3
TEN -2
SD -2
AZ -4
NO -3
GB -3
PHI -7

THIS IS WHAT I CALL LINEMOVEMENT


ACE
 

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[h=1]What Sharps are Betting in Thanksgiving NFL (plus TCU-Texas)[/h]
There are three NFL games on Thanksgiving once again this season. Let’s take a look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are betting in those games, plus the prime time college football matchup featuring TCU and Texas. Sharps were VERY active in terms of sides and totals right off the bat in the three NFL games.
HOUSTON AT DETROIT: Sharps were very fond of Houston and the Over on the opening numbers of -3 and 48. The Texans are now up to -3.5 and even -4 in spots. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of money to move a game off a three. Sharps were very surprised that a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC was only laying a field goal against a slumping team with a losing record from the NFC. They also expect a shootout with a pair of quarterbacks who know how to move the ball. We would expect some buy back on the underdog at +4.5, and on the Under at 51 based on our discussions with a few different syndicates. But, that wouldn’t be an “over the top” buyback…because early bettors are very happy with their positions.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: A rare early move on a dog against a public favorite on a big public betting day. Normally, you can assume that squares (the general public) would back Dallas in a Thanksgiving game as a relatively small home favorite. This game opened at -4. Sharps hit underdog Washington right away and drove the line to +3. So many sharps wanted Washington that it was impossible to wait. Many groups have these teams rated dead even in their Power Ratings…which meant a number like four was an automatic bet signal. The total is up from 47 to 48.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS: The underdog and Under were hit right away here, and it wasn’t weather related. Global warming has made November mostly pleasant in the cities where weather can be a factor. Sharps liked the Jets at +7 enough to bring the line below that key number to +6.5. The opening total of 50.5 has been bet down to 48.5. We hear that sharps expect the Jets to follow the same gameplan that almost led to a big upset in Foxboro. That means running the ball and running the clock. It’s telling again that sharps went against a public favorite (in this case, New England) right away rather than waiting for the public to bet. They didn’t want to take any chances, they wanted their money in at +7.
TCU AT TEXAS: This game also saw aggressive betting activity on the opener. Texas opened at -8, but was bet down to -7 as the home favorite. The total of 61 has come down three points to 58 because the Texas defense has been playing so well in recent weeks. Mixed messages there. The best way to interpret that is that Longhorn support showed up on the total because Under 61 or 60 offered more value in the minds of backers than Horns -8. TCU money showed up on the dog figuring an intense battle in any style of game. Remember that it takes less money to move a total, particularly a high opening total.
We expect sharp money to fade any public money that comes in on the holiday. So, if squares bet public favorites like Dallas, New England, and the Texas Longhorns, sharps will buy more of the underdogs if the lines go back up.
 

EX BOOKIE
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wish everyone a great day with family and friends....Today I did not pick any of those games today!...det could win it they dont turn over the ball

a sharp that put $9000 on this gamw took Wash

NE...dont care game to me


enjoy the day

Ace
 

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ace-- in hoops i've seen many times wise guys buy from 2.5-2
 

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