Good vs Bad Bet

JustinCruise · Nov 20, 2012

Do you think there is such a thing as a good bet that loses, or a bad bet that wins?

I thought about this in the last week because I think I experienced both.

I bet Toledo +10 vs Northern Illinois college football and won, But it was clear the entire game that Northern Illinois was a far superior team and it should have been a blowout. Northern Illinois also ended the game up 7 kneeling on the toledo 10 yard line. So is this still a good bet?

I lost last week on an nba bet (can't remember the exact teams) where I was covering from start to finish by 10+ points. My team had control of the entire game. In the last 3 minutes, the other team made 3 unanswered desperation three's, followed by a last second layup that made me lose by one point. My team still won the game, but didn't cover. So does that mean I made a bad bet even though I was safely covering the whole game?

With that said, what determines a truly "good" bet?

JustinCruise · Nov 20, 2012

dsethi said:
you tell us

.

I would really like other people's input before I answer my own question.

Another thing I wonder is if you take a line at -7, and it moves to -9 before the game starts. Does that mean you made a good bet even if you lose?

douglas · Nov 20, 2012

JustinCruise said:
Do you think there is such a thing as a good bet that loses, or a bad bet that wins?

I thought about this in the last week because I think I experienced both.

I bet Toledo +10 vs Northern Illinois college football and won, But it was clear the entire game that Northern Illinois was a far superior team and it should have been a blowout. Northern Illinois also ended the game up 7 kneeling on the toledo 10 yard line. So is this still a good bet?

I lost last week on an nba bet (can't remember the exact teams) where I was covering from start to finish by 10+ points. My team had control of the entire game. In the last 3 minutes, the other team made 3 unanswered desperation three's, followed by a last second layup that made me lose by one point. My team still won the game, but didn't cover. So does that mean I made a bad bet even though I was safely covering the whole game?

With that said, what determines a truly "good" bet?

When your account is credited.

CHOPTALK · Nov 20, 2012

The gifted one should know this right?
For a gifted capper you sure are asking some basic questions.
Most gifted cappers I know already know these things.
I guess your just not as gifted as the other gifted cappers.

Im sure you will figure it out.

JustinCruise · Nov 20, 2012

CHOPTALK said:
The gifted one should know this right?
For a gifted capper you sure are asking some basic questions.
Most gifted cappers I know already know these things.
I guess your just not as gifted as the other gifted cappers.

Im sure you will figure it out.

1. being good at picking sports winners has nothing to do with understanding the intricacies of sports betting. There are a lot of people who can pick winners that are losing bettors because of bad bankroll management. I never said I was a master of understanding value, managing bets etc. (i actually said that was my weak point).. Just said I was good at picking outcomes.

2. It takes no insightfulness or originality to do nothing on this forum but follow someone's posts and attempt to put them down.

It's actually kind of sad. You should probably get a life.

OptionA · Nov 20, 2012

JustinCruise said:
I would really like other people's input before I answer my own question.

Another thing I wonder is if you take a line at -7, and it moves to -9 before the game starts. Does that mean you made a good bet even if you lose?

I know nothing about college football, couldn't name a single player, but if you can get and NFL number like that, it is a good bet every time, even if you lose. Getting a number that is two points better than the closing line is always good, no matter what.

CHOPTALK · Nov 20, 2012

JustinCruise said:
1. being good at picking sports winners has nothing to do with understanding the intricacies of sports betting. There are a lot of people who can pick winners that are losing bettors because of bad bankroll management. I never said I was a master of understanding value, managing bets etc. (i actually said that was my weak point).. Just said I was good at picking outcomes.

2. It takes no insightfulness or originality to do nothing on this forum but follow someone's posts and attempt to put them down.

It's actually kind of sad. You should probably get a life.

Im not putting you down.
Im enjoying your post.
If it comes off that way im sorry I cant help it. LOL.
This shit is just too good to pass up.

I will try to bite my tongue on the "You should get a life comment".
If I defended that comment there would be no other way to do it then to make you look bad.

So with that in mind I will let that one slide and just keep enjoying your post.

I will do my best in the future to try not to comment on most of your future post.
But I have to say, as hard as I may try, the odds of me having that kind of will power is pretty low. LOL

Anyway as always have a great day. And I really do enjoy your post.

MotorMouth · Nov 20, 2012

I think choptalk really does enjoy your posts, just because you are silly and generally have no idea of what you are talking about doesnt make you
a bad guy, in fact its entertaining. Just accept that you are clueless and keep posting.
The court jester continues to perform regardless of how much he gets laughed at.

As far as Im concerned the only good bet is a winning bet.
I understand the argument that if you are getting the better of the number then over the long run you will
do better and should win more games. Yes this is an important thing for those who are professionals as you always
want the best number, keep in mind, damn near everyone on this board are not professionals.

Some people will console themselves for picking a loser if they made the "correct" bet based on line movement.

I made 5 bets this past weekend and four of them "beat" the closing line, doesnt change the fact that all 4 still lost
and I got no satisfaction from the fact that I beat the line. So In my book I made some bad bets.

CHOPTALK · Nov 20, 2012

MotorMouth said:
I think choptalk really does enjoy your posts, just because you are silly and generally have no idea of what you are talking about doesnt make you
a bad guy, in fact its entertaining. Just accept that you are clueless and keep posting.
The court jester continues to perform regardless of how much he gets laughed at.

100% correct.
I dont dislike Justin one bit.
Its just his presentation that makes me laugh.
He comes off as an expert in half his post, and the other half he ask some of the dumbest questions you will ever read.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with not knowing the answers to some of his questions.
But when you compare some of his answers in one thread vs his questions in other threads it makes for great reading material.

I will say it again.
Nothing wrong with not knowing.
There are a million things I dont know.
Im far from an expert.

And yes I do enjoy Justin's post.
And I do think Justin is probably a good guy.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Nov 21, 2012

We are all coin flippers....

Good bets are the ones you make and get a nice return on your money....cash in hand....

I have plenty of losing tickets with the best numbers...

Enfuego · Nov 21, 2012

This thread and question is an epic fail.

flashmo · Nov 21, 2012

A bad bet is better than no bet at all

Willie99 · Nov 21, 2012

I think yes, you can win a bad bet, but we all need luck too

if everything you capped about a game happened, but some fluke plays at the end beat you or maybe a few undeniably bad calls beat you, you can argue you made the right call but got screwed. At the end of the day, we're trying to "call" games. But this stuff is supposed to even out

Obviously, I'll take a bad win over a good loss

HacheMan · Nov 21, 2012

Yes, there's such a thing as "Being On The Right Side" even if wager loses.

I believe this is what he's getting at...

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