Service Plays Saturday 11/24/12

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-------
GL!

[FONT=Courier New, courier, monaco, monospace, sans-serif]Will Harris, Man v Machine Upset Picks

[/FONT]LW 7-3 record to move to 73-46 (61.3%) on the year

Michigan 21, Ohio State 17
Stanford 27, UCLA 24
Clemson 41, South Carolina 21
Florida State 19, Florida 6
Oregon 30, Oregon State 22
Notre Dame 35, USC 17
Duke 38, Miami 21
Mississippi State 34, Mississippi 17
North Carolina State 48, Boston College 17
Vanderbilt 21, Wake Forest 20

THE GOLDSHEET

★★★★★★KEY RELEASES★★★★★★
NBA- L.A. LAKERS by 16 over Dallas (Saturday, November 24)
NCAAF- NC STATE -13.5 over Boston College
NCAAF- OLE MISS -1 over Mississippi State
NCAAF- TEXAS A&M -21 over Missouri
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks

Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS

219 6:00 PM UL-MON @ FIU -6 - 14.9 - 60.2% - PP

162 3:30 PM @ PSU WISC -2.5 - 8.3 - 58.6% - PP

146 12:00 PM @ UGA GATECH -13 - 19.4 - 58.0% - PP

159 12:21 PM KTY @ TENN 13 - -6.7 - 57.9%

152 3:30 PM @ MINN MSU 8 - -3.4 - 57.6%

194 3:30 PM @ FLAST FLA -6 - 11.9 - 57.5%

189 3:00 PM OREGON @ OREST -9.5 - 16.1 - 57.3%

195 10:30 PM LATECH @ SJSU 5 - 2.4 - 57.2% - Upset Watch

168 2:00 PM @ UTSA TXST 1.5 - 3.8 - 55.9% - Upset Watch

206 7:00 PM @ CLEM SC -4 - 10.1 - 55.7%

157 3:00 PM BC @ NCSU 14 - -9.7 - 55.3%

200 3:30 PM @ HOU TULANE -12.5 - 16.6 - 55.2%

149 12:00 PM UVA @ VATECH 10.5 -6.0 - 55.2%

192 12:00 PM @ SMU TULSA 5 - -1.5 - 55.0%

180 6:30 PM @ UCLA STAN 1.5 - 3.6 - 54.9% - Upset Watch

174 2:30 PM TXTCH BAYLOR 2.5 - 1.9 - 54.9% - Upset Watch

172 3:30 PM @ WYO SDSU 7 - -1.7 - 54.8%

Over/Under Picks

Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick%

198 4:30 PM SOUMIS @ MEM51.5 - 43.7 - Under - 60.4%

182 3:30 PM BYU @ NMST48.5 - 56.8 - Over - 60.2%

186 3:30 PM OKST @ OKLA 72.5 - 85.3 - Over - 58.9%

208 12:00 PM UAB @ UCF58 - 50.4 - Under - 58.7%

192 12:00 PM TULSA @ SMU 53 - 46.1 - Under - 58.7%

176 3:00 PM AUBURN @ ALA46 - 51.5 - Over - 58.6%

156 12:00 PM ILL @ NW50.5 - 44.6 - Under - 58.5%

196 10:30 PM LATECH @ SJSU75 - 66.3 - Under - 57.5%

148 3:00 PM MD @ UNC54 - 46.1 - Under - 56.9%

204 7:00 PM RICE @ UTEP 56 - 62.1 - Over - 56.5%

140 12:00 PM MICH @ OHIOST 54.5 - 50.0 - Under - 56.1%

160 12:21 PM KTY @ TENN61 - 57.2 - Under - 54.6%

206 7:00 PM SC @ CLEM61.5 - 55.6 - Under - 54.5%

178 7:00 PM MISSST @ MISS54.5 - 51.4 - Under - 54.4%

158 3:00 PM BC @ NCSU54 - 49.5 - Under - 54.1%

166 12:00 PM IND @ PURDUE62.5 - 58.9 - Under - 54.1%

Exposing the Top 25: Where the Polls Went Wrong
by Chris Elliott

Each week throughout the college football season, Chris Elliott will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Stanford Cardinal (9-2, 7-4 ATS)

Stanford has surprised experts and football fans alike as it has a chance to match last season's record of 11-2 without arguably the nation's top offensive player from the past two seasons. The Cardinal have won five straight games with their last loss coming by a score of 20-13 at current No. 1 Notre Dame on Oct. 13. Stanford has played and beaten a "who's who" of competition this season, including Oregon and Oregon State in back-to-back weeks.

Saturday they travel to the Rose bowl to challenge a Bruins squad that has won five straight games as well. This will be a battle of the Cardinal’s 10th-ranked scoring defense against the Bruins’ 20th-ranked scoring offense. After Stanford held Oregon to 14 points last week, I expect they will get the job done in week 13.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2, 7-4 ATS)

South Carolina is coming off a 24-7 victory over the Wofford Terriers out of the Southern Conference Saturday. The Gamecocks scored 17 points in the final 12 minutes to break a fourth quarter tie. The team was out-yarded 330 to 293 against the Terriers as they remain without their top offensive weapon RB Marcus Lattimore.

South Carolina will be tested Saturday at No. 12 Clemson with their impressive fourth-ranked scoring offense. The Gamecocks are 0-2 this season on the road against ranked opponents losing by a combined margin of minus-17.5 point per game. They are 3-5 SU at Clemson since 1996 and I expect that trend to continue Saturday.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - San Jose State Spartans (9-2, 9-2 ATS)

San Jose State is 9-1 in its last 10 games after opening the season with a tight 20-17 defeat at No. 11 Stanford. The Spartans are coming off an impressive 20-14 home victory over BYU to increase their win streak to five consecutive games.

San Jose State will challenge the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-2) at Spartan Stadium Saturday night. The Bulldogs are coming off a devastating home OT loss to Utah State, basically handing the Aggies the WAC title in the process, as they only need to beat Idaho (1-10) in their final regular season game to clinch. Expect a letdown game from the Bulldogs as the Spartans finish strong at home Saturday.

Football Lines that Make You GO Hmmm...
by Jason Logan

NCAAF

Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5, 54.5)

These types of rivalry games demand a certain amount of give and take, but this spread has dropped from its opener of -5 to as low as OSU -3.5. That early move stinks of steam and you can expect heavy buyback on the Buckeyes if it goes to a field goal.

Ohio State, which many think is the top team in the nation, is banned from postseason play, leaving this showdown with “that team up north” as its bowl game. Head coach Urban Meyer is more than familiar with college football’s biggest rivalry, growing up in Ohio, and is even going after Michigan head coach Brady Hoke – a fellow Ohio native.

“He was born in the state of Ohio - which I still don't get,” Meyer told the Detroit Free Press of Hoke. “That's another story. But I guess it adds to the intensity.”

Even with Michigan QB Denard Robinson back under center, the spread seems too low against the 11-0 Buckeyes.

Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers (-13, 61)

This SEC toilet bowl features two teams that have canned their head coaches and would love to just have the season over with. Somehow, books are tagging the Vols as 13-point favorites in the wake of Derek Dooley’s termination following a 41-18 loss to rival Vanderbilt last weekend.

Tennessee has come up short against the spread in three straight games and is just 3-8 ATS on the year. Kentucky announced that it was letting head coach Joker Phillips go at the end of the season, prompting the Wildcats players to rally behind Phillips in his final game.

“It would be huge. To send him out on a high note like that, it would be huge for us and the seniors as well,” linebacker Avery Williamson told reporters. “I feel like he deserves it. He gave his all even though we didn't get the results we wanted this year. I feel like him and his staff, they gave it all and put it all on the line for us to have a good season."

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers (-2, 43.5)

Rutgers, which announced it would be joining the Big Ten in 2014 this week, is in the hunt for a chunk of the Big East regular season title versus Pitt this weekend.

Books are dealing the motivated Scarlet Knights as 2-point road dogs at Heinz Field, facing a Panthers team coming off back-to-back losses, including a 24-17 stinker against UConn last week. Pitt has covered only twice in its last seven home games with Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights RB Jawan Jamison has been slowed by a sprained ankle but backup Savon Huggins was more than capable of towing the load, rushing for 179 yards versus Cincinnati last week. A possible look-ahead spot may have books playing it cool with Rutgers, which faces Louisville with a potential BCS bowl appearance on the line next week.

Jimmy Boyd

NCAAF

5* Louisville -11.5

4* Ohio St -3

4* Tennessee -13

3* Rutgers +2

3* Oregon -9

Info plays

7* houston cougars -12

Nelly Green Sheet

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
********************
RATING 5 LSU (-12½) over Arkansas
RATING 4 TEXAS TECH (+2) over Baylor
RATING 3 NC STATE (-13½) over Boston College
RATING 2 ARIZONA STATE (+2½) over Arizona
RATING 2 AIR FORCE (+16½) over Fresno State
RATING 1 WEST VIRGINIA (-1) over Iowa State
RATING 1 OHIO (+10½) over Kent State

Winning Points

Best Bets
#172 Wyoming
#209 Notre Dame

Preferred
#133 West Virgina
#137 Arizona St.
#146 Georgia
#196 San Jose St.


Best Bet = 12-8
PRE = 22-18-1

Sports Reporter

Best Bets
#129 LSU
#146 Georgia
#142 Wake Forest
#177 Miss St.

Recommended
#113 Buffalo
#158 North Carolina St.
#160 Tennessee
#168 Texas SA
#193 Florida


Best Bet = 28-17
REC = 29-13

Red Sheet

89 #140 Ohio St.
89 #146 Georgia
88 #196 San Jose St.
88 #174 Baylor
88 #188 Texas A&M


89 = 7-12-1
88 = 15-17


Power Sweep

Key Selections
4* #206 Clemson
3* #145 Georgia Tech
3* #129 LSU
2* #173 Texas Tech
2* #138 Arizona


4* = 5-8
3* = 12-8
2* = 14-14

Power Plays

2* #110 Texas
4* #126 ECU
4* #128 Kent St
3* #134 Iowa St.
4.5* #143 UCONN
1* #150 Virginia tech
2* #160 Tenn
4.5* #161 Wisconsin
3* #176 Alabama
4* #180 UCLA
3* #181 BYU
4* #185 Okie St.
4* #190 Oregon St.
4.5* #194 FSU
4* #202 Colorado St.
4.5* #206 Clemson


4.5* = 11-17
4* = 32-32-2
3* = 24-16
3.5* = 1-1
2* = 9-14
1*= 4-4


Pointwise

Key Releases
1* #206 Clemson
1* #121 No Illinois
2* #128 Kent St.
3* #203 Rice
4* #194 Florida St.
4* #184 Fresno St.
5* #188 Texas A&M
5* #190 Oregon St.


5* = 9-14
4* = 16-10
3* = 6-6
2* = 6-7
1* = 12-11


Playbook / Marc Lawrence

GOW ---- #120 Temple

Best Bets
3* #137 Arizona St.
4* #178 Miss
5* #186 Oklahoma


AA = 3-4
GOW = 6-6
Inc.Stat = 3-0
3* = 5-7
4* = 7-4
5* = 5-7-1

Broad Street Cappers
Texas Tech
Oregon State
San Jose State

Teddy Covers
Wyoming
Florida St.
Notre Dame

Dr Bob

best bets
Vandy
Air Force

strong opinions
Georgia
Boston college
San Jose st

Vegas Runner early steam

Pitt -2

Good luck

SB Professor

2 PM EST

143. Connecticut +11*



3:30 PM EST

142. Wake Forest +11*



11 PM EST

212. Hawaii +3.5*


Rest of Games

149. Virigina +10

154. Duke +6.5

168. UTSA +1.5

190. Oregon St. +9.5

172. Wyoming +7.5

193. Florida +77

180. UCLA +3

210. USC +5

GoodFella

2* Oregon St. +10

Per BigBoy on Fridays's forum.

Double Dragon Sports

7 unit Hydra - FSU
5 unit Hydra - Stanford