Handicapping the Josh Hamilton market
ESPN INSIDER
This is what Josh Hamilton achieved in 2012: 43 homers, tied for the second-most in the majors. One hundred twenty-eight RBIs, which ranked second in the majors. One hundred three runs; only seven players scored more. He finished fifth in the American League MVP voting.
This is what Hamilton somehow simultaneously achieved in 2012: He managed to create more questions about him, about his value, about the risk of signing him.
Somehow, evaluators are asking questions such as this -- Will Hamilton go into operation shutdown if you give him the contract that he's looking for? He seemed to struggle to maintain his focus in a lot of games and weeks last year, so will he simply drift off once he gets an enormous contract?
All of this makes for the most unique set of circumstances for any free agent since the system began in 1976, a mix of raw power and doubt and extraordinary natural ability and rumors. Anybody who tells you he or she knows exactly how this will end up is apparently the only person who thought in early December 2011 that Prince Fielder would land with Detroit.
I asked a handful of baseball officials and invested agents to venture an educated guess on where Hamilton will land -- and all but four of them split their votes, which tells you a lot about how wide-open and uncertain this situation appears to be:
The results:
<offer>
[h=3]Texas Rangers: 4 votes (Two full, four half-votes)[/h]
How this would happen: As Hamilton floundered down the stretch, some members of the Texas organization became completely fed up with what they perceive to be his unreliability and his wildly inconsistent at-bats; he swung at the first pitch in his at-bats at a higher rate than anybody in the majors. In the Rangers' wild-card game loss to the Orioles, he saw a total of eight pitches in his four plate appearances.
But the Rangers also know all about his potential impact; Texas had never been to the World Series before Hamilton joined the team, and then Hamilton was their best player as they reached the Fall Classic in 2010 and 2011. They know better than anybody about the state of his off-field issues. The Rangers are prepared to pay Hamilton a lot in salary, but it seems likely that they will limit the length of their contract offer.
Remember, though: The Rangers have a lot to offer Hamilton beyond dollars. He knows the front-office staff, knows manager Ron Washington, knows the coaches, knows the players. He knows the media, and wouldn't face nearly the kind of scrutiny that he would if he played in Boston or New York. If he played for the Yankees, any off-field incident would play out on the back pages day after day after day.
The Rangers know Hamilton; he knows them. And there could be a lot of value in that for both sides, in working out a new deal.
One evaluator who gave a half-vote for the Rangers wrote this: "He needs big money -- an average annual value for somewhere between $25 and $30 million depending on the years he is (or is not) guaranteed. Texas still needs a big power bat and despite how things ended it worked well for both sides when he was there."
[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers: 3 1/2 (Two full, three half-votes)[/h]
How this would happen: The Brewers don't have the resources to give Hamilton anything close to the Prince Fielder-type money he is said to be looking for. What they do have, as written here Oct. 16, is a support system that he trusts and a lot of answers to the questions about Hamilton's reliability.
If Hamilton gets the kind of massive offer he wants, the Brewers don't have a chance. But if the questions about Hamilton's substance abuse crush the bidding for him, leaving him to choose among a group of similar three-year or four-year deals, then Milwaukee could be in play. And at least two agents believe that the tipping point for Hamilton will be on whether somebody offers him three years, or four. "Nobody is giving him more than four years," said one agent.
One talent evaluator guessed the Brewers will win, adding that he thinks Hamilton will get $125 million over five years.
"But I wouldn't be surprised with something completely outlandishly expensive or closer to $100 million," the evaluator added. "It's a very unique case."
[h=3]Boston Red Sox: 1 1/2 votes (One full, one half-vote)[/h]How this could happen: The Red Sox have money available, they have a need for an outfielder, and if the bidding for him is limited by teams afraid of the risk-reward equation, Hamilton could evolve from an expensive option into a pretty good value signing.
Said an NL evaluator: "He could be Boston's impact hitter and would absolutely torch the Yankees. He could easily transition to LF in that ballpark and eventually DH once David Ortiz leaves. In fact, Boston has had experiences with 'special cases' that needed extra attention like Manny Ramirez."
[h=3]Seattle Mariners: 1/2 vote[/h]
How this could happen: The Mariners, now more than a decade removed from their last playoff appearance, are viewed as desperate by rival executives this winter. Ichiro Suzuki's contract is off the books, and Chone Figgins was cut; they need a lot of help to contend in an increasingly competitive AL West, and Hamilton could, in theory, be the anchor to their lineup. Besides their deal with Felix Hernandez, the Mariners have relatively few salary obligations beyond the 2013 season.
Hamilton would be a good fit, but presumably, the Mariners would have to go above and beyond all other bidders in order to land Hamilton, given the current state of the franchise -- which could mean an offer of at least five or six years.
By the way: Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik said recently that the Mariners aren't targeting Hamilton.
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles: 1/2 vote[/h]
How this could happen: The Orioles have the money, they could play Hamilton in left field, and he might be more interested in playing in Baltimore now that the team has become a contender again.
By the way: I think there's little-to-no chance the Orioles get seriously involved in these conversations, because of Hamilton's addiction history. Owner Peter Angelos has nixed many deals in the past, based on the recommendations of team doctors, and so he would probably have a lot of hard questions about what kind of toll Hamilton's past drug use took on his body.
[h=3]Mystery Team (1 vote)[/h]
How this could happen: The price gets so depressed in the Hamilton bidding that some team swoops in and makes what it considers to be a high-value deal. If this sounds nutty, remember how the Phillies shocked the baseball world by signing Cliff Lee, and how the Tigers landed Fielder.
My pick: It's the safe play, but I'd guess -- and that's all it is, a guess -- that he'll go back to the Rangers. Because I don't think any team will extend itself far beyond Texas in the bidding, given the inherent concerns.
[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. The TV deal that the Los Angeles Dodgers are talking about is worth $6 billion. In other words: Luxury tax; what luxury tax?
2. The Atlanta Braves are waiting on B.J. Upton's decision, writes David O'Brien.
3. The Dallas Morning News places odds on Zack Greinke landing with the Rangers in this piece.
4. The Red Sox are focused on Mike Napoli.
5. The Nationals don't have any pressing needs, says GM Mike Rizzo. He's right. St. Louis is in the same situation.
6. That said: The Cardinals are looking to enhance their left-handed relief, writes Derrick Goold.
7. This could be a busy week for the Phillies, writes Jim Salisbury. I agree with Jim; by the end of this week, Philadelphia could have its center fielder.
8. Within the same piece there is word that Ryan Madson is in serious talks with the Los Angeles Angels. He's a perfect fit for them: Experience as a closer and as a setup man, and presumably, as he comes back from major surgery, he won't be too expensive.
9. Andy Pettitte has started his offseason workouts.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• Charlie Morton is looking to jump-start his career, after having Tommy John surgery.
• Scott Kazmir's line score in his second start in Puerto Rico wasn't as good as it was in his first start. He's being scouted by a bunch of teams.
• The son of White Sox executive VP Ken Williams had a tough break.
And today will be better than yesterday.
</offer>
ESPN INSIDER
This is what Josh Hamilton achieved in 2012: 43 homers, tied for the second-most in the majors. One hundred twenty-eight RBIs, which ranked second in the majors. One hundred three runs; only seven players scored more. He finished fifth in the American League MVP voting.
This is what Hamilton somehow simultaneously achieved in 2012: He managed to create more questions about him, about his value, about the risk of signing him.
Somehow, evaluators are asking questions such as this -- Will Hamilton go into operation shutdown if you give him the contract that he's looking for? He seemed to struggle to maintain his focus in a lot of games and weeks last year, so will he simply drift off once he gets an enormous contract?
All of this makes for the most unique set of circumstances for any free agent since the system began in 1976, a mix of raw power and doubt and extraordinary natural ability and rumors. Anybody who tells you he or she knows exactly how this will end up is apparently the only person who thought in early December 2011 that Prince Fielder would land with Detroit.
I asked a handful of baseball officials and invested agents to venture an educated guess on where Hamilton will land -- and all but four of them split their votes, which tells you a lot about how wide-open and uncertain this situation appears to be:
The results:
<offer>
[h=3]Texas Rangers: 4 votes (Two full, four half-votes)[/h]
How this would happen: As Hamilton floundered down the stretch, some members of the Texas organization became completely fed up with what they perceive to be his unreliability and his wildly inconsistent at-bats; he swung at the first pitch in his at-bats at a higher rate than anybody in the majors. In the Rangers' wild-card game loss to the Orioles, he saw a total of eight pitches in his four plate appearances.
But the Rangers also know all about his potential impact; Texas had never been to the World Series before Hamilton joined the team, and then Hamilton was their best player as they reached the Fall Classic in 2010 and 2011. They know better than anybody about the state of his off-field issues. The Rangers are prepared to pay Hamilton a lot in salary, but it seems likely that they will limit the length of their contract offer.
Remember, though: The Rangers have a lot to offer Hamilton beyond dollars. He knows the front-office staff, knows manager Ron Washington, knows the coaches, knows the players. He knows the media, and wouldn't face nearly the kind of scrutiny that he would if he played in Boston or New York. If he played for the Yankees, any off-field incident would play out on the back pages day after day after day.
The Rangers know Hamilton; he knows them. And there could be a lot of value in that for both sides, in working out a new deal.
One evaluator who gave a half-vote for the Rangers wrote this: "He needs big money -- an average annual value for somewhere between $25 and $30 million depending on the years he is (or is not) guaranteed. Texas still needs a big power bat and despite how things ended it worked well for both sides when he was there."
[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers: 3 1/2 (Two full, three half-votes)[/h]
How this would happen: The Brewers don't have the resources to give Hamilton anything close to the Prince Fielder-type money he is said to be looking for. What they do have, as written here Oct. 16, is a support system that he trusts and a lot of answers to the questions about Hamilton's reliability.
If Hamilton gets the kind of massive offer he wants, the Brewers don't have a chance. But if the questions about Hamilton's substance abuse crush the bidding for him, leaving him to choose among a group of similar three-year or four-year deals, then Milwaukee could be in play. And at least two agents believe that the tipping point for Hamilton will be on whether somebody offers him three years, or four. "Nobody is giving him more than four years," said one agent.
One talent evaluator guessed the Brewers will win, adding that he thinks Hamilton will get $125 million over five years.
"But I wouldn't be surprised with something completely outlandishly expensive or closer to $100 million," the evaluator added. "It's a very unique case."
[h=3]Boston Red Sox: 1 1/2 votes (One full, one half-vote)[/h]How this could happen: The Red Sox have money available, they have a need for an outfielder, and if the bidding for him is limited by teams afraid of the risk-reward equation, Hamilton could evolve from an expensive option into a pretty good value signing.
Said an NL evaluator: "He could be Boston's impact hitter and would absolutely torch the Yankees. He could easily transition to LF in that ballpark and eventually DH once David Ortiz leaves. In fact, Boston has had experiences with 'special cases' that needed extra attention like Manny Ramirez."
[h=3]Seattle Mariners: 1/2 vote[/h]
How this could happen: The Mariners, now more than a decade removed from their last playoff appearance, are viewed as desperate by rival executives this winter. Ichiro Suzuki's contract is off the books, and Chone Figgins was cut; they need a lot of help to contend in an increasingly competitive AL West, and Hamilton could, in theory, be the anchor to their lineup. Besides their deal with Felix Hernandez, the Mariners have relatively few salary obligations beyond the 2013 season.
Hamilton would be a good fit, but presumably, the Mariners would have to go above and beyond all other bidders in order to land Hamilton, given the current state of the franchise -- which could mean an offer of at least five or six years.
By the way: Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik said recently that the Mariners aren't targeting Hamilton.
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles: 1/2 vote[/h]
How this could happen: The Orioles have the money, they could play Hamilton in left field, and he might be more interested in playing in Baltimore now that the team has become a contender again.
By the way: I think there's little-to-no chance the Orioles get seriously involved in these conversations, because of Hamilton's addiction history. Owner Peter Angelos has nixed many deals in the past, based on the recommendations of team doctors, and so he would probably have a lot of hard questions about what kind of toll Hamilton's past drug use took on his body.
[h=3]Mystery Team (1 vote)[/h]
How this could happen: The price gets so depressed in the Hamilton bidding that some team swoops in and makes what it considers to be a high-value deal. If this sounds nutty, remember how the Phillies shocked the baseball world by signing Cliff Lee, and how the Tigers landed Fielder.
My pick: It's the safe play, but I'd guess -- and that's all it is, a guess -- that he'll go back to the Rangers. Because I don't think any team will extend itself far beyond Texas in the bidding, given the inherent concerns.
[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. The TV deal that the Los Angeles Dodgers are talking about is worth $6 billion. In other words: Luxury tax; what luxury tax?
2. The Atlanta Braves are waiting on B.J. Upton's decision, writes David O'Brien.
3. The Dallas Morning News places odds on Zack Greinke landing with the Rangers in this piece.
4. The Red Sox are focused on Mike Napoli.
5. The Nationals don't have any pressing needs, says GM Mike Rizzo. He's right. St. Louis is in the same situation.
6. That said: The Cardinals are looking to enhance their left-handed relief, writes Derrick Goold.
7. This could be a busy week for the Phillies, writes Jim Salisbury. I agree with Jim; by the end of this week, Philadelphia could have its center fielder.
8. Within the same piece there is word that Ryan Madson is in serious talks with the Los Angeles Angels. He's a perfect fit for them: Experience as a closer and as a setup man, and presumably, as he comes back from major surgery, he won't be too expensive.
9. Andy Pettitte has started his offseason workouts.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• Charlie Morton is looking to jump-start his career, after having Tommy John surgery.
• Scott Kazmir's line score in his second start in Puerto Rico wasn't as good as it was in his first start. He's being scouted by a bunch of teams.
• The son of White Sox executive VP Ken Williams had a tough break.
And today will be better than yesterday.
</offer>
