Why is this a bad idea? Say, you have a great idea for a side or total from capping or whatever source. You are very confident in the pick and your insight on this one. I could sit and hash the following out for an hour or two as I'm good with math and such. However, I'm tired and would love suggestions or ideas similar from you guys.
First, take the pick and parlay it with another later game. You don't have to heavily cap the 2nd game, but you should (I'm guessing) take a game that is pretty tight on spread so as to not get crazy ML's. Unless you take the points, instead. It may not matter, actually....hmmmm. ANYWAY, you must make sure the second side of the parlay is later when you will be sure of the outcome of your first and great pick.
THEN, if you win your first game you take the ML dog on the second game (straight bet) to hedge if you took ML favored in 2nd leg of parlay. You take dog + points (straight bet) if you gave away points for the favored team in the 2nd leg of the parlay.
If your great pick mentioned at the top of this post loses as the first leg of the parlay, you never make the later wager to hedge. You are done at that point.
Here is a picture of what I did yesterday. The bottom wager was played this morning to hedge after the Giants smoked the Packers.
Before the win, I had three things that could happen: I could lose $110 on a -140 ML if Giants lost and now will win $7 or win $114, now.
I did this because I didn't want to take the hit on Giants ML as it was expensive. $110 would have only paid me about $78. But now, I might only win $7 off of a great Giants pick.
What's wrong with this? Is there a better way or some other idea along these lines that you can offer?
Thanks,
tulsa
