[h=1]Patriots atop NFL Bettors' Poll[/h][h=3]Power ratings for all 32 NFL teams from handicappers going into Week 13[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots remain atop the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll rankings after the top four teams all won for a second week in a row.
The Patriots blew out the New York Jets 49-19 on Thanksgiving night and the San Francisco 49ers beat the New Orleans Saints 31-21 on Sunday, but those performances didn't produce a bump in their power ratings -- a combined effort from Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley. Likewise, the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos failed to cover the spread against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively, but they weren't downgraded as the top four teams saw their power ratings remain the same.
The New York Giants' 38-10 rout of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night pulled them into a tie for the fifth spot in the power ratings; they were upgraded by a half-point, while the Packers were downgraded by the same amount. In fact, the vast majority of changes in the poll were by just a half-point here and there. The biggest increase was 1.5 points by the Colts, while the Redskins and Jaguars saw full-point gains. The biggest drops were the full points lost by the Jets, Eagles and Cardinals.
Here is the Week 13 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Week 13 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll[/h]
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
Value in the lines for Week 13
Each week, we go through the schedule and compare the power ratings of the two teams playing in every game to see if there is any edge to be found with our collective power ratings against the available lines. While we have always stressed that more things go into handicapping games than just power ratings, we still expect them to do better than the 2-2 record posted last week (wins on the Lions plus-3.5 and Jaguars plus-3 and losses on the Bills and Packers) for an overall record of 12-17 ATS.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. My "Tuley's Take" against the spread plays on ESPN Insider continues to go strong at better than 60 percent -- despite a rough 2-6 mark on Thanksgiving weekend -- and is posted by Friday afternoon.)
Here are the plays for this week:
St. Louis Rams plus-7 versus San Francisco 49ers: The raw numbers have the 49ers 7.5 points better than the Rams, but with the Rams at home that would come down under a touchdown, so there looks to be a little value there (if you're willing to fade the hype coming with the 49ers as of late).
The pick: Rams
Arizona Cardinals plus-4.5 versus New York Jets: Yes, we know it's hard to back the Cardinals when they've lost seven straight games and are only 1-5-1 ATS in that span, but the power ratings have the Jets just 1 point ahead of the Cards -- and we don't give them much for home-field advantage (especially with the alleged retirement of Fireman Ed).
The pick: Cardinals
Miami Dolphins plus-7.5 versus New England Patriots: It's also tough to fade our No. 1 team, the Patriots, but while they're 8 points higher than the Dolphins, Miami's home-field advantage makes the plus-7.5 look like value.
The pick: Dolphins
Houston Texans minus-5.5 versus Tennessee Titans: This line seems to have come out a little short, as our power ratings have the Texans 9.5 points ahead of the Titans. Even with home-field factored in, the line looks like it should be closer to a full touchdown.
The pick: Texans
Note: In addition to the Steelers-Ravens game being in question due to Big Ben's status, two other games could be potential plays if the Falcons' line dips to minus-3 and/or the Redskins' line raises to plus-3.
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots remain atop the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll rankings after the top four teams all won for a second week in a row.
The Patriots blew out the New York Jets 49-19 on Thanksgiving night and the San Francisco 49ers beat the New Orleans Saints 31-21 on Sunday, but those performances didn't produce a bump in their power ratings -- a combined effort from Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley. Likewise, the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos failed to cover the spread against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively, but they weren't downgraded as the top four teams saw their power ratings remain the same.
The New York Giants' 38-10 rout of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night pulled them into a tie for the fifth spot in the power ratings; they were upgraded by a half-point, while the Packers were downgraded by the same amount. In fact, the vast majority of changes in the poll were by just a half-point here and there. The biggest increase was 1.5 points by the Colts, while the Redskins and Jaguars saw full-point gains. The biggest drops were the full points lost by the Jets, Eagles and Cardinals.
Here is the Week 13 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Week 13 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll[/h]
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Power Rating | Last Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 7-4 | 26 | 26 | ---- |
| 2t | Houston Texans | 7-4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | ---- |
| 2t | San Francisco 49ers | 7-4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | ---- |
| 2t | Denver Broncos | 6-5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | ---- |
| 5t | New York Giants | 5-5-1 | 24.5 | 24 | +0.5 |
| 5t | Green Bay Packers | 5-6 | 24.5 | 24 | -0.5 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | 6-4-1 | 23.5 | 23.5 | ---- |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-5-1 | 23 | 23 | ---- |
| 9t | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-6-1 | 22.5 | 23 | -0.5 |
| 9t | Chicago Bears | 6-5 | 22.5 | 22 | +0.5 |
| 11t | Seattle Seahawks | 7-4 | 21.5 | 22 | -0.5 |
| 12t | New Orleans Saints | 6-5 | 21 | 21.5 | -0.5 |
| 12t | Dallas Cowboys | 4-7 | 21 | 21.5 | -0.5 |
| 12t | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-2-1 | 21 | 20.5 | +0.5 |
| 15t | Detroit Lions | 5-6 | 20.5 | 21 | -0.5 |
| 15t | Washington Redskins | 7-4 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1 |
| 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-5-1 | 20 | 19.5 | +0.5 |
| 18 | San Diego Chargers | 5-6 | 19.5 | 19.5 | ---- |
| 19 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-4 | 19 | 17.5 | +1.5 |
| 20 | Minnesota Vikings | 4-6-1 | 18.5 | 19 | -0.5 |
| 21t | Miami Dolphins | 5-6 | 18 | 17.5 | +0.5 |
| 21t | Carolina Panthers | 4-7 | 18 | 18 | ---- |
| 21t | St. Louis Rams | 7-4 | 18 | 17.5 | +0.5 |
| 24 | Buffalo Bills | 5-6 | 17.5 | 18 | -0.5 |
| 25t | Cleveland Browns | 6-4-1 | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 |
| 25t | New York Jets | 6-5 | 17 | 18 | -1 |
| 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1-9-1 | 16.5 | 17.5 | -1 |
| 28t | Arizona Cardinals | 4-6-1 | 16 | 17 | -1 |
| 28t | Tennessee Titans | 4-7 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-5 | 14 | 13 | +1 |
| 31 | Oakland Raiders | 3-8 | 13.5 | 14.0 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4-7 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
Value in the lines for Week 13
Each week, we go through the schedule and compare the power ratings of the two teams playing in every game to see if there is any edge to be found with our collective power ratings against the available lines. While we have always stressed that more things go into handicapping games than just power ratings, we still expect them to do better than the 2-2 record posted last week (wins on the Lions plus-3.5 and Jaguars plus-3 and losses on the Bills and Packers) for an overall record of 12-17 ATS.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. My "Tuley's Take" against the spread plays on ESPN Insider continues to go strong at better than 60 percent -- despite a rough 2-6 mark on Thanksgiving weekend -- and is posted by Friday afternoon.)
Here are the plays for this week:
St. Louis Rams plus-7 versus San Francisco 49ers: The raw numbers have the 49ers 7.5 points better than the Rams, but with the Rams at home that would come down under a touchdown, so there looks to be a little value there (if you're willing to fade the hype coming with the 49ers as of late).
The pick: Rams
Arizona Cardinals plus-4.5 versus New York Jets: Yes, we know it's hard to back the Cardinals when they've lost seven straight games and are only 1-5-1 ATS in that span, but the power ratings have the Jets just 1 point ahead of the Cards -- and we don't give them much for home-field advantage (especially with the alleged retirement of Fireman Ed).
The pick: Cardinals
Miami Dolphins plus-7.5 versus New England Patriots: It's also tough to fade our No. 1 team, the Patriots, but while they're 8 points higher than the Dolphins, Miami's home-field advantage makes the plus-7.5 look like value.
The pick: Dolphins
Houston Texans minus-5.5 versus Tennessee Titans: This line seems to have come out a little short, as our power ratings have the Texans 9.5 points ahead of the Titans. Even with home-field factored in, the line looks like it should be closer to a full touchdown.
The pick: Texans
Note: In addition to the Steelers-Ravens game being in question due to Big Ben's status, two other games could be potential plays if the Falcons' line dips to minus-3 and/or the Redskins' line raises to plus-3.
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
