Service Plays Thursday 11/29/12

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Joe Gaffney

ONE SHOT ONE KILL COLLEGE PLAY ON RUTGERS

Green Sheet
RATING 2 RUTGERS (-2½) over Louisville

Teddy Ain't Been Covering 10* CFB
Louisville
:smoking:

DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 14 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1013-336 (.751)
ATS: 402-373 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 2377-2198 (.520)
Over/Under: 356-342 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1173-805 (.593)

Thursday, November 29, 2012
Big East Conference
RUTGERS 24, Louisville 14

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 102-64 (.614)
ATS: 73-98 (.427)
ATS Vary Units: 325-538 (.377)
Over/Under: 87-85 (.506)
Over/Under Vary Units: 345-286 (.547)

Thursday, November 29, 2012
ATLANTA 30, New Orleans 27

Louisville Cardinals vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Point Spread - Pick

No. 20 Louisville Cardinals (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. No. 18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date/Time: Thursday November 29th, 2012. 7:30PM Eastern
Where: High Point Solutions Stadium Piscataway, N.J.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: Lou +2/RUT -2
Over/Under Total: 43

The Big East Championship will be decided this Thursday night when the no. 20 Louisville Cardinals invade Piscataway to battle the no. 18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Actually, the Big East title was partially decided last week thanks to a 23-20 triple overtime loss for Louisville against Connecticut. That loss ensured Rutgers at least a share of the Big East crown with just 1 conference loss on the season. However, Louisville could shake things up and possibly create a 4 way share of the Big East title with a win over Rutgers this Thursday night.

Perhaps more importantly, this game carries major BCS significance. If the Cardinals pull out the win and create a tie on top of the Big East standings, then the highest ranked team in the BCS standings captures the automatic BCS Bowl bid. Since both Louisville and Rutgers are already the two highest ranked teams in the conference, each team knows that a BCS Bowl berth awaits the winner this Thursday.

Just a few weeks ago, the Cardinals were overwhelming favorites to not only win the Big East but possibly capture their first undefeated season in school history. Louisville posted a 9-0 mark following the first week in November but suffered back to back losses against Syracuse and last week to Connecticut. Now the Cardinals are on the outside looking in as they attempt to snap their losing skid. Last week Charlie Strong's defense held Connecticut to just 241 total yards despite the 23-20 triple overtime loss. The Cardinals defense has been solid all season holding opponents to just 345 total yards per game (26th in FBS).

However the Louisville offense will have to find ways to manufacture some points this week as they were unable to do against the Huskies. Louisville statistically has a rather average offense averaging 434 total yards per game (44th in FBS). The Cardinals offensive success relies heavily on the arm of sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has been impressive this year hitting 68% passing for 3,189 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 6 picks. Last week Bridgewater suffered a fracture wrist to his non-throwing hand in the loss to Connecticut. Bridgewater will play this Thursday night and it will be interesting to see if that injury affects his performance. It is safe to say that Bridgewater is the primary weapon for the Cardinals offense and they will need him to play well against a strong Rutgers defense this Thursday to have a shot at the win.

For Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights will try to shake off a 27-6 loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Scarlet Knights' offense gained just 207 total yards against the Panthers in what was their worse performance of the season. Rutgers has not been strong offensively this season averaging just 341 yards (99th in FBS) and 22 points (93rd in FBS) per game. Still, Rutgers could not do anything against the Pittsburgh defense last week which causes concerns going against an even tougher Louisville defense especially on a short week this Thursday.

Typically the Scarlet Knights like to control tempo by flexing their muscles in the running game and playing outstanding defense. The Rutgers defense has given up just 314 yards per game this season which ranks 14th in college football. I believe Rutgers will match up well again this Thursday against Louisville's offense and keep scoring relatively low. Still, the Scarlet Knights must get running back Jawan Jamison going to avoid another dismal offensive performance. Jamison has already eclipsed the 1,000 yard barrier this season and he is a tough runner between the tackles. Therefore it will be interesting to see if Jamison can keep the chains moving and help control tempo for the Scarlet Knights' offense this Thursday night.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I consider this a rather easy play on the under 43. Bridgewater is banged up and Rutgers has lingering offensive concerns. Both teams will try to run the ball and win the field position battle to help their offense. This game may be boring for some but it will be a low scoring grudge match in the trenches. Take the under 43!

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Point Spread - Pick

New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date/Time: Thursday, November 29th, 2012, 8:20 p.m. EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.
TV: NFL Network/DirecTV 212
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: N.O. +3.5/ATL -3.5
Over/Under Total: 56

The game that the Atlanta Falcons have had circled for the past 18 days will finally arrive this Thursday, when they host the NFC South rival New Orleans Saints in the Georgia Dome in primetime on Thursday Night Football on the NFL Network.

The 10-1 Falcons only have one blemish on their record this season, courtesy of the Saints in a week 10 loss in the Superdome, 31-27, and they've been waiting for weeks to try and enact revenge. They barely made it to this week, slipping past Arizona a week ago and needing a late touchdown run from Michael Turner to sneak past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, 24-23. But as they say … a win is a win.

New Orleans finally had their momentum stopped and their three-game win streak snapped when they gave away a win at home last Sunday to the San Francisco 49ers, 31-21. Drew Brees threw two critical interceptions, and both were returned for interceptions, and the Saints couldn't dig out of the big hole in the loss to the Niners. The loss was especially disheartening for the Saints since they stood to make up ground in the NFC wildcard chase since everyone ahead of them lost on Sunday.

Now the Saints almost need to win out the final five weeks of the season to get back into the wildcard chase, and with three tough road games on still on the schedule (at NYG, at Dallas) starting this week in the Georgia Dome, the lights are starting to dim.

With a short week to prepare, oddsmakers set a pretty cautious opening point spread listing the Falcons as 3.5-point favorites at home in the dome. Less than 24 hours in, there hasn't been enough action to move the number in either direction yet either.

The over/under total opened at 55.5 and has gone up the hook at a few offshore sportsbooks to 56.

The total is set so high because the Falcons and Saints possess two of the top scoring offenses in the NFL. Everyone knows that Brees and the Saints are one of the best passing attacks (291 ypg - 5th) in the league, capable of striking quick from just about anywhere on the field (28 ppg - 5th), but this season it's actually Matt Ryan and the Dirty Birds that are tossing the ball all around (298 ypg - 2nd) and putting points up in bunches (26.7 ppg - 8th).

The addition of Julio Jones to the Falcons offense has given them one of the most dangerous deep threats in the game, and when you combine him with "possession" guys like Roddy White and Tony Gonzales, the Falcons have quickly become the potent offense that's held them back in the past. The fact that the Saints are still statistically the worst defense in the league (allowing 455 ypg) should make Ryan and crew salivate when looking at the game tape, although they have played better in recent weeks since leader Jonathan Vilma has returned from his knee injury/suspension.

One key area to keep an eye on as kickoff approaches Thursday is the health of the Saints offensive line. Zach Strief (groin) and Bryce Harris both missed significant time in the 49ers game, and Brees spent more time on his back and scrambling away from pressure than he'd like, so their return this week will be huge (both listed as questionable).

Injuries may also affect the Falcons ability to stop Brees and the Saints, since both starting corners Asante Samuel (shoulder) and Dunta Robinson (concussion) left last week's game at Tampa early and are listed as questionable for Thursday as well.

In their week 10 matchup both Ryan (411 yards) and Brees (298 yards) threw for three touchdowns, but the game turned on the Saints running game as the combo of Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas gained 148 yards rushing (7.1 ypc). The Falcons also had a few crucial penalties (53 yards) that kept them from covering as 1-point favorites on the road.

If you're looking for a betting trend angle to capitalize on, the fact this game is on Thursday night might be key. Since 1993 the Saints are 3-3 SU but only 1-5 ATS, while the Falcons are 4-3 SU and a solid 6-1 ATS in Thursday games. The Saints typically play well in November (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS), but the Falcons have played well when they've played back-to-back games against NFC South division rivals (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS).

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Saints are having issues along the offensive line, and the short week won't offer them much time to get healthy and iron out those problems. New Orleans has to win, but the Falcons are motivated by the loss two weeks ago and all of the talk the Saints put on the bulletin board following it.
I'm betting the Falcons minus the points.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Wisconsin (-9) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s St. John’s. The deficit is 1438 sirignanos.

Wed

ras 3-3
kels0 0-4
never win 3-1
c joran 3-0

THX Kotcho
much appreciated

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Thursday, November 29th - Free Member Play

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Thursday, November 29th - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
RUTGERS -3 vs louisville (4:30pm)
Soumi
*Lines at LV Hilton 11-29-12, 1:45am
**All times Pacific


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CFB

Louisville QB Bridgewater played second half last week with broken left (non-throwing) wrist, is expected to play here, in what amounts to play-in game for trip to Orange Bowl. Cardinals lost last two games after 9-0 start, allowing 45-23 points; they've won three games while giving up 30+ points- they're 3-1 on road, losing at Syracuse on last trip. Game is sold out, first Rutgers sellout in three years. Scarlet Knights are 4-1 here, losing 35-23 to #17 Kent State, allowing total of 25 points in three home wins vs I-A teams. Five of last seven Rutgers games stayed under total. Three of last four Louisville games went over. Home side won/covered five of last seven series games.

NFL

Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)—New Orleans (+2) beat Falcons 31-27 at home three weeks ago, Atlanta’s only loss this year, outrushing them 148-46 for 11th win in last 13 series games; Saints won last three visits here, all by exactly three points. Five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points. Falcons’ last three games were also all decided by 4 or less points; they’re 5-0 at home, with all five wins by 6 or less points (2-3 as HF). Atlanta is 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a divisional home favorite. Saints are 5-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’re 2-2 as underdog this year, 1-1 on road. Atlanta allowed 28+ points in only two games, but one of them was against Saints. Last three NO games went over the total; five of last seven Falcon games stayed under. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season.

What Bettors Need to Know: Kentucky at Notre Dame

KENTUCKY at NOTRE DAME

Kentucky has had a chance to fix several of the things that went wrong in its loss to Duke earlier this month, starting with an offense that struggled to push the pace. The eighth-ranked Wildcats have averaged 95.3 points in three straight wins since that loss to the Blue Devils, and have gone over the century mark twice. They will test that explosive offense against a higher caliber of competition when they visit Notre Dame on Thursday.

Unlike freshman-dominated Kentucky, the Fighting Irish rely heavily on upperclassmen and returned all five starters from a team that won 22 games last season. That experience and familiarity has helped Notre Dame execute in the half court and on the defensive end en route to four straight wins. The Wildcats will try to get out and run, using their superior athleticism to make up the difference in experience. Their big challenge will be stopping Irish forward Jack Cooley, who is averaging a double-double while shooting over 60 percent from the field.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: The early overnight line has Kentucky as a 1-point road favorite and the total was recommended at 135.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (4-1): The SEC/Big East Challenge will provide the Wildcats with a better approximation of their growth than wins over Louisiana-Lafayette, Morehead State and Long Island University-Brooklyn. Kentucky rebuilt over the summer with a strong recruiting class and has watched those players come together over the last three games. Guard Archie Goodwin came within one rebound and one assist of a triple-double in the 104-75 win over LIU-Brooklyn on Friday while Alex Poythress has gone for 20 or more in four straight games. Nerlens Noel continues to fill up the box score in much the same way that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist did for last season’s national championship squad.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (6-1): The Irish suffered an overtime loss to St. Joe’s during the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic earlier this month but have recovered nicely, especially on the defensive end. Notre Dame is allowing just 58.3 points during its four-game winning streak. Six players scored in double figures in Monday’s 92-65 win over Chicago State, led by Jerian Grant’s 22 points and 10 assists. The Irish are so balanced offensively that Cooley only had four field goal attempts (making all four) in the win. That efficiency is made possible by the backcourt duo of Grant and Eric Atkins, who have a combined assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.08.

TIP-INS

1. Kentucky G Ryan Harrow (illness) has not played since the opener but returned to practice this week.

2. The Wildcats beat Notre Dame 72-58 in Louisville in the last meeting on Dec. 8, 2010.

3. The Fighting Irish are averaging 19 assists as a team.

Thursday Night Football: Saints at Falcons

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 56)

The Atlanta Falcons look to avenge their only loss of the season Thursday when they kick off Week 13 with a rematch with the NFC South-rival New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta opened the season with eight straight victories before running into a hot New Orleans team that posted a 31-27 triumph at home on Nov. 11. Tight end Jimmy Graham caught seven passes for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns and Jabari Greer broke up a pass in the end zone on fourth-and-goal late in the fourth quarter to preserve the Saints' fourth win in five games.

Atlanta has squeaked out a pair of wins since the loss to New Orleans, posting a four-point triumph over Arizona before edging the Buccaneers 24-23 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Seven of the Falcons' 10 victories have been by seven points or less. After opening the campaign with four consecutive setbacks, the Saints got back in playoff contention by winning five of their next six contests. But their postseason hopes took a hit Sunday as they fell to NFC West-leading San Francisco at home, 31-21.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites and have dropped to -3 at some markets. The 56 points total ties the highest total of the season and has dropped to 55.5 at some books.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): New Orleans would have vaulted into sixth place - and a wild card spot - in the NFC with a win over San Francisco. Instead, it sits in 11th and faces two more division leaders over the next two weeks. Quarterback Drew Brees extended his NFL-record streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 54 with three scoring tosses but also had two passes intercepted and returned for TDs. He now has 31 touchdown strikes this year, making him just the third QB in league history to reach the 30-TD plateau in five or more seasons. Brees joins Brett Favre (nine) and Peyton Manning (six) in that category. Brees (2008-12) and Favre (1994-98) are the only two to do it in five consecutive campaigns. Wide receiver Marques Colston notched a franchise-record 56th touchdown of his career Sunday. He had been tied with Deuce McAllister atop the franchise list.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS): Sunday's margin of victory could have been larger had Matt Bryant not struggled. The kicker missed a 22-yard field-goal attempt as time expired in the first half and failed to convert a 48-yarder with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. It was the second time in four games Bryant has missed a pair of attempts. Wide receiver Julio Jones showed no signs of injury against Tampa Bay, catching six passes for 147 yards - including an 80-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Jones had been limited in practice last week due to a sore right ankle. Quarterback Matt Ryan has now led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter this season and 21 during his five-year career. Running back Michael Turner capped the latest one Sunday, scoring on a 3-yard run with 7:55 remaining.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints have won four straight and 11 of the last 13 meetings between the division rivals.

2. Graham and Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez became the first pair of tight ends to have at least 120 yards receiving and two TDs in the same game.

3. Gonzalez caught a pair of scoring passes in the first meeting, the first making him the first tight end in NFL history with 100 touchdown receptions.

Tale of the tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
by Sean Murphy

Time is running out on the Saints, as they travel to Atlanta to face the rival Falcons Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape.

Offense

New Orleans was held under 28 points for the first time in four games against San Francisco last Sunday. Drew Brees threw for only 267 yards in the loss, but did find the end zone three times to go along with two interceptions. Brees has thrown 11 picks already this season after tossing only 14 all of last year. Perhaps he's trying to do too much, with the Saints ground game stuck in neutral. They ran for just 59 yards on 21 attempts last Sunday, and are averaging 91.5 rush yards per game on the season.

Atlanta has been the picture of consistency on offense this season, scoring at least 23 points in all but one of its 11 games. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in four consecutive games, while Jacquizz Rodgers appears to be slowly overtaking Michael Turner as the team's feature running back. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez enjoying tremendous success, the Falcons’ ground game has become a bit of an afterthought this season.

Edge: Atlanta

Defense

Not surprisingly, we've seen the Saints defense take a step back in the post-Gregg Williams era. They did appear to be gaining some traction, having held their last three opponents to a combined 57 points before giving up 31 against the 49ers. Their defense - or lack thereof - is a big reason why the Saints have been outgained in terms of total yardage in each of their last seven contests. Note that New Orleans has held its own defensively in this series, giving up 24 points or less in regulation time in five of its last six meetings with Atlanta.

The Falcons haven't been healthy on the defensive side of the football for much of the season, but have still put up some solid numbers. They've been gashed by the run at times, allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the year, but have made up for it with a secondary that allows just seven yards per pass play. Asante Samuel, Dunta Robinson, and Peria Jerry have all missed practice time this week, but at least two of the three are expected to play Thursday night.

Edge: Atlanta

Special teams

The Saints have been atrocious on punt returns this season, averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per return. It's unlikely we'll see them break through in that department against a Falcons special teams unit that allows only 7.6 ypr. The good news is, the Saints’ kick return game has been much better, gaining a whopping 27.9 ypr. Specialist Courtney Roby has been a big contributor. Kicker Garrett Hartley hasn't been busy, converting on only nine of 12 field goal attempts.

Like the Saints, the Falcons have struggled returning punts, but have performed above the league average on kickoffs. They'll go against a New Orleans special teams unit that allows close to nine yards per punt return, and 22 yards on kickoffs. Few kickers have been as reliable as Matt Bryant this season. He's had a heavy workload, and has made the most of it, converting 26-of-31 field goal attempts.

Edge: Atlanta

Word on the street

"It makes it more juicy. It makes the rivalry better. And I like competing against these guys. We always know we're gonna get a good game." -- Saints safety Roman Harper referring to the trash talk leading up to this week's game.

"Ten and one is great, but I'll tell you what I've said since the beginning of the season: We're just jockeying for position. We just want to put ourselves in the best position, playing the best football." -- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez speaking about his team's NFC-best record.

Louisville at Rutgers: What Bettors Need to Know

Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-3, 43.5)

The Big East has grown accustomed to strange finishes in recent years, but No. 18 Rutgers hopes to avoid any suspense for the second time in as many seasons when they host No. 20 Louisville on Thursday.

In addition to securing the school’s first BCS berth, the Scarlet Knights will get a chance to atone for last season when they missed out on an opportunity to forge a four-way atop the conference standings in the final week of the regular season. While a similar scenario could take place again this season, Thursday’s game will likely determine whether Rutgers or Louisville with represent the conference in a BCS bowl game.

Last Saturday, the Scarlet Knights had a chance to claim their first outright conference title, but appeared listless in a 27-6 loss to Pittsburgh. However, thanks to a triple-overtime loss by Louisville to Connecticut on the same day, Rutgers clinched at least a share of the Big East crown.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Rutgers has been bet up to a field-goal favorite after opening at -2.5. The total opened at 43.5 and has remained steady.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-2, 4-2 Big East, 4-7 ATS): The Cardinals enter on a two-game losing streak and injuries to key players are beginning to pile up. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater broke his left wrist and sprained his right ankle against Connecticut, one game after the team lost leading rusher Senorise Perry for the season to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Coach Charlie Strong expects Bridgewater to play through his injuries Thursday, but his ability to effectively lead the conference’s top scoring offense will be in question. Bridgewater is unable to handle snaps under center or play-action calls but is expected to manage the offense from the shotgun and pistol formations.

ABOUT RUTGERS (9-2, 5-1 Big East, 7-4 ATS): Despite rushing for only 14 yards on nine carries against Pittsburgh, Jawan Jamison became the seventh player in school history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. The Scarlet Knights have forced a turnover in 14 consecutive games – totaling 32 over that stretch – and have forced at least one turnover in 51 of their previous 55 games. Rutgers ranks among the top 25 nationally in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring (fourth), total (14th) and rushing (11th).

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rutgers has allowed only 71 points in conference play.

2. Louisville is 3-18 all-time on the road against ranked opponents.

3. A win would give the Scarlet Knights only their third 10-win season in the program’s 143-year history.