<offer>[h=1]Betting Broncos-Raiders[/h][h=3]It might look like visiting Denver is an easy pick, but not so fast
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider[/h]
After a one-week reprieve, we're back to the Thursday night stinkers that are best for gambling and fantasy. Just the way I like it.
Tonight's Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders game has playoff implications only for the Broncos, winners of seven straight and contenders for a first-round bye. Peyton Manning has emerged as the favorite for league MVP and possibly comeback player of the year (likely competing with Adrian Peterson for both). The looming possibility of a Broncos-Colts playoff matchup has fans giddy.
The big story coming out of Oakland this week has been the possibility of the Raiders turning back to their old coach Jon Gruden. With the Raiders, nothing is ever discounted. Nutty possibilities always seem realistic. Since Gruden departed after the 2001 season, Oakland has had seven coaches. Two of them, Art Shell and Hue Jackson, only lasted a year, so it wouldn't be without precedent for the Raiders to dump Dennis Allen after his first year.
According to ESPN PickCenter, the public is backing the Broncos at a solid 57.2 percent rate. In related news, the public backs all favorites that are 10 points or more 100 percent of the time.
Let's get line analysis from Jay Kornegay and a pick on the game from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com.
Kornegay says: "The Broncos opened a minus-9.5 favorite over the Raiders and got as high at minus-10.5 before settling in at minus-10. The Broncos could be the most popular betting team in the NFL and we expect it to show up on Thursday night. The Raiders on the other hand are one of the most disappointing teams. Without a doubt, most of the tickets and money will follow the Broncos. It will be the 'sharps' that will decide where this game closes.
"The pros tend to see value in a home dog, especially in a divisional game. I think the sharps will take anything above minus-10.5 and might even jump on anything above minus-10. I see wheelbarrows coming in on the Broncos but pros won't let it get too out of hand. The number should end up at minus-10.5. If the sharps don't want any part of Oakland, it could go as high as minus-11.5. The total opened 49 and is down to 48. I think this trend will continue and will close lower at 47.5 or 47."
Prediction: Line will move to minus-10.5; total will drop to 47.5.
Selvaggio says: "I could go into a long-winded analysis breaking down these teams statistically, but this is a clear case of what you see is what you get. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the league and Denver is one of the best. That's why we are looking at a double-digit spread.
"My numbers favor Denver by 14 points but big favorites tend to let down against dreadful teams so a line of 10 to 10.5 seems to be a fair price that will get books balanced action. I have had Denver rated higher than most all season long and it hasn't let me down, posting a 7-4-1 ATS record thus far. Oakland has been just the opposite. The Raiders are one of the worst teams, posting a 3-9 ATS record including five straight ATS losses.
"Before you go thinking Denver minus-10 or higher is a lock, you should know that double-digit home underdogs are 88-63 ATS since 1980 including a 9-0 run the last two seasons. If the favored team is off one win (which eliminates them overlooking their opponent) that number improves to 74-47 ATS. If that win was a home game you are looking at a 64-31 (67 percent) ATS record. Denver already qualified once in that situation two weeks ago against the Chiefs and failed to cover.
"I won't have any money wagered on this game, but if I were forced to play it would be with the ugly dog. Games like this pop up every year where it looks like the favorite is going to kill 'em but that just isn't the case. More often than not the pile of trash getting a bunch of points gets the cash."
Selvaggio's ATS pick: Raiders
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By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider[/h]
After a one-week reprieve, we're back to the Thursday night stinkers that are best for gambling and fantasy. Just the way I like it.
Tonight's Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders game has playoff implications only for the Broncos, winners of seven straight and contenders for a first-round bye. Peyton Manning has emerged as the favorite for league MVP and possibly comeback player of the year (likely competing with Adrian Peterson for both). The looming possibility of a Broncos-Colts playoff matchup has fans giddy.
The big story coming out of Oakland this week has been the possibility of the Raiders turning back to their old coach Jon Gruden. With the Raiders, nothing is ever discounted. Nutty possibilities always seem realistic. Since Gruden departed after the 2001 season, Oakland has had seven coaches. Two of them, Art Shell and Hue Jackson, only lasted a year, so it wouldn't be without precedent for the Raiders to dump Dennis Allen after his first year.
According to ESPN PickCenter, the public is backing the Broncos at a solid 57.2 percent rate. In related news, the public backs all favorites that are 10 points or more 100 percent of the time.
Let's get line analysis from Jay Kornegay and a pick on the game from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com.
[h=3]Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders[/h]
Spread: Opened Broncos minus-9.5, now minus-10
Total: Opened at 49, now 48
<offer>Spread: Opened Broncos minus-9.5, now minus-10
Total: Opened at 49, now 48
Kornegay says: "The Broncos opened a minus-9.5 favorite over the Raiders and got as high at minus-10.5 before settling in at minus-10. The Broncos could be the most popular betting team in the NFL and we expect it to show up on Thursday night. The Raiders on the other hand are one of the most disappointing teams. Without a doubt, most of the tickets and money will follow the Broncos. It will be the 'sharps' that will decide where this game closes.
"The pros tend to see value in a home dog, especially in a divisional game. I think the sharps will take anything above minus-10.5 and might even jump on anything above minus-10. I see wheelbarrows coming in on the Broncos but pros won't let it get too out of hand. The number should end up at minus-10.5. If the sharps don't want any part of Oakland, it could go as high as minus-11.5. The total opened 49 and is down to 48. I think this trend will continue and will close lower at 47.5 or 47."
Prediction: Line will move to minus-10.5; total will drop to 47.5.
Selvaggio says: "I could go into a long-winded analysis breaking down these teams statistically, but this is a clear case of what you see is what you get. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the league and Denver is one of the best. That's why we are looking at a double-digit spread.
"My numbers favor Denver by 14 points but big favorites tend to let down against dreadful teams so a line of 10 to 10.5 seems to be a fair price that will get books balanced action. I have had Denver rated higher than most all season long and it hasn't let me down, posting a 7-4-1 ATS record thus far. Oakland has been just the opposite. The Raiders are one of the worst teams, posting a 3-9 ATS record including five straight ATS losses.
"Before you go thinking Denver minus-10 or higher is a lock, you should know that double-digit home underdogs are 88-63 ATS since 1980 including a 9-0 run the last two seasons. If the favored team is off one win (which eliminates them overlooking their opponent) that number improves to 74-47 ATS. If that win was a home game you are looking at a 64-31 (67 percent) ATS record. Denver already qualified once in that situation two weeks ago against the Chiefs and failed to cover.
"I won't have any money wagered on this game, but if I were forced to play it would be with the ugly dog. Games like this pop up every year where it looks like the favorite is going to kill 'em but that just isn't the case. More often than not the pile of trash getting a bunch of points gets the cash."
Selvaggio's ATS pick: Raiders
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