Service Plays Monday 12/10/12

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Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Point Spread - Pick

Houston Texans (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date/Time: Monday, December 10th, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: Hou. +3.5/NE -3.5
Over/Under Total: 51.5

There will be plenty of talk about it being a potential preview of the future AFC Championship game, but one thing is certain, when the Houston Texans travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots it will be one of the best games that ESPN has hosted on Monday Night Football in a long, long time.

Houston, who earned a birth in the AFC playoffs via last week's 24-10 win over Tennessee, still has a lot to play for on Monday when they take on Tom Brady and the Patriots. Despite being 11-1 this season, the Texans have yet to clinch the AFC South title, something they still can only accomplish if they beat the Patriots for their seventh win in a row and the Colts lose (at home to Tenn.). They also have an outside chance at clinching a first-round AFC playoff bye (win plus Colts, Ravens or Broncos losses), or a bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (losses by all three … but the underlying factor is the Texans must find a way to knock the Patriots of the throne of the AFC's best team.

New England on the other hand has already clinched the AFC East title, for the fourth consecutive time and ninth title in the last 10 seasons, with a 23-16 win over the rival Miami Dolphins last Sunday. But since they are trailing the Texans by two games in the race for homefield in the playoffs, it's safe to say they won't be willing to just give the Texans the top seed in the AFC playoffs without a huge fight.

With arguably the best the AFC has to offer this season going head-to-head in primetime, the opening point spread for the game was set with New England as 4.5-point favorites at home. With a lot of the early money ready to anoint the Texans as the team to beat, the number has dropped to minus -3.5 at most sportsbooks and even as low as the "standard" 3-point number the home team typically gets in the NFL just for playing in their home stadium.

The over/under total opened at 52.5 and it too has dropped a full point down to it's current number of 51.5 on most sportsbook boards.

This game will feature the top two scoring offenses in the NFL, so it doesn't take an expert handicapper to figure out there might be a few points scored on Monday. Both teams are extremely balanced, with plenty of big name stars like Matt Schaub, Brady, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and Wes Welker loading up that side of the ball just to name a few.

The biggest question mark as far as offense is concerned is the health of Patriots left guard Logan Mankins, who has missed three games with a bum ankle. His replacement Donald Thomas has held up nicely, but with the NFL's leading sack man J.J. Watt leading the Texans defense you can bet the Texans will test Thomas early and often if the Pro-Bowler Mankins can't go on Monday.

So since both teams are so dangerous on offense, the game will likely be determined by which defense plays better. Statistically that would appear to be the Texans, since they are 4th in the league allowing only 18.4 points per game and 6th overall allowing 323 yards a game, but stats don't always hold true otherwise statisticians would be millionaires. Plus, Patriots coach Bill Bilichick is a former defensive coordinator, so he always seems to find a way to get what has typically been a weak Pats defense to play above expectations in huge games like the one facing them on MNF.

Houston is also dealing with there own host of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, with corner Johnathan Joseph (hamstring), and linebackers Brooks Reed (groin) and Bradie James (hamstring) all inactive for the past week and unlikely to be ready come Monday against Brady and the Pats.

New England has won 12 straight games in December, so they know how to close at this point of the season.

The last time these two met was back in 2010 in the season finale in Reliant Stadium when the Texans were able to defeat the Patriots, 34-27, but the win was anticlimactic since they didn't make the playoffs that season. Overall they've only met three times since the Texans became a franchise, with New England winning both of the other two games including a 40-7 shellacking in the only game at Gillette back in 2006.

With such a small sample size and history, finding relevant betting trends is a chore. Houston is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, but they have not fared well in primetime going 0-4 ATS on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile the Patriots are the opposite, going 4-0 ATS on MNF, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games in Gillette.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Wow, I'm more excited to see this game than I was last season's Super Bowl. What a great matchup! Between Houston having a better defense and Gronk being out, I feel that the Texans hold the advantage here so I'm ecstatic to be getting +3.5 points. I might even spend another ten bucks and buy it to +4 to cover another key number.

Where the Action is: NFL Mid-Week Line Moves

If you think the shopping malls are busy this time of year, take a look at the odds for Week 14 of the NFL season. Oddsmakers have been frantically juggling numbers this week with early action forcing some notable adjustments.

We talk to Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at the South Point in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves heading into the weekend.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Open: -4.5, Move: -3

The sharps grabbed Houston as big as they could get them, taking the spread as low as a field goal at some books. Most Las Vegas spots are dealing the hook at Patriots -3.5 and that has garnered a slight lean for New England action in both straight-up wagers and parlay cards.

“We won’t be going back up to -4 on this one,” says Osborne.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 14
by Jason Logan

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 14:

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3.5, 52)

Texans’ injured secondary vs. Patriots' WR Wes Welker

This Monday night matchup, which has a big impact on the AFC playoff picture, could come down to just one man: Wes Welker. Welker is licking his chops, matched up against a shorthanded and banged-up Texans secondary. The Texans are without CB Brice McCain, their best slot defender, due to a broken foot and could march out top corner Johnathan Joseph at less than 100 percent. Joseph missed the last two games due to a tender hamstring and won’t get any favors from the cold and wet conditions expected to hit Gillette Stadium Monday night.

Welker is the best slot receiver in the game, constantly topping the NFL in receptions and currently leading the league with 92 catches heading into Week 14. He sputtered a bit through November but erupted for 12 catches for 103 yards and a score in a win over Miami last weekend. The injury to Julian Edelman makes Welker even more key this week, not just receiving but also in the return game.

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 14

Quick-hitting betting notes.

Houston at New England (-3.5, 50.5)

In addition to their 12-game win streak in December, the Patriots also have an NFL-best 42-5 record in the final month of the year since 2001, which includes a perfect 4-0 in 2011. New England has finished undefeated in December four times during that span, including 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011. Additionally, New England is 19-1 in the last four games of the regular season since 2007. The Texans are without CB Brice McCain, their best slot defender, due to a broken foot and could march out top corner Johnathan Joseph at less than 100 percent. Joseph missed the last two games due to a tender hamstring. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday night games.

NFL
Write-Up

Week 14

Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)— Easy to overlook that New England is +24 in turnovers this year (+11 in last four games), a remarkable number; 49ers were +28 LY, and they have chance to beat that. Third week in row on road for Houston, historically a red flag for any team, but Texans are 6-0 on road, with pair of 6-point wins and an OT win at Detroit. Top two teams in AFC square off in possible playoff preview; Texans’ offense is geared towards good weather- they snuck past Bears 13-6 in sloppy night game four weeks ago. Have to wonder about Houston defense after Jaguars/Lions scored 37-31 points in games 2-3 weeks ago, Wes Welker blew out his knee last time teams met, a 34-27 Houston win in season finale few years ago; Patriots won two of three series games, winning 40-7 in only meeting here in ‘06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 6-6 on road. Nine of last ten New England games went over total; three of Texans’ last four road games stayed under.

Playbook Marc Lawrence

5* NE Patriots

Football Jesus

Week 14 Podcast ---- NE Patriots

Jimmy Boyd

3* New England

Dr Bob

2* Patriots -4

Pointwise Phones

3* Patriots

Harry Bondi

10* NFL GOY New England

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Titans (+5) Sunday.

Monday it’s the Texans. The deficit is 1463 sirignanos.

Cappers Access

Patriots -4

Football Betting Sheet
“Exclusive for VIP Clients”

New England Patriots 31 – Houston Texans 28 (8:30 ET MON)
The 'total' opened at 50.5 and has held there all week. The 'over' is 3-0 in the three games played in the history of this series. Houston has played to a 2-1 mark towards the 'over' in the past two weeks. The Texans can just about lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. New England has already won the AFC East. Houston has allowed 17.7 PPG in its L/6.
HOUSTON +3 Rating: 4.3/5

Plays based upon a five-point scale.
Plays over a 4.0 are strong plays.
Plays above 4.5 are mandatory plays.

Monday Night Football: Texans at Patriots

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-4, 50.5)

The Houston Texans have already wrapped up a playoff berth and are two games clear of the pack in the race for the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Still, despite the Texans' 11-1 record heading into Monday night's high-profile matchup at the New England Patriots, there is skepticism regarding Houston's legitimacy as a Super Bowl contender. Many of the doubts were spawned from another marquee night matchup, when the Texans were waylaid at home by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers 42-24.

New England clinched the AFC East title last week and, like Houston, carries a six-game winning streak into Monday's matchup. The Patriots are battling division leaders Baltimore and Denver in the race for a first-round bye but could vault into the mix for the No. 1 seed by beating the Texans, who are 6-0 on the road.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Patriots -4, O/U 50.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 90 percent of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (11-1): Houston can all but clinch the top seed with a victory, having already defeated division leaders Denver and Baltimore. The Texans, who will be playing their third straight road game, finally got their defense straightened out in last week's 24-10 win at Tennessee after surrendering a total of 68 points in the previous two games - both of which went to overtime. Quarterback Matt Schaub has won 15 of his last 16 starts and directs a balanced offense featuring an elite wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a powerful running game led by Arian Foster, who is 98 yards shy of his third straight 1,200-yard season. DE J.J. Watt has 16.5 sacks and leads a unit that yields an average of 18.4 points. Houston's injury-riddled secondary will be tested by the league's best offense.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-3): New England tops the league in scoring at 35.8 points (more than six better than runner-up Houston) but had its second-lowest offensive output in last week's 23-16 win in Miami. Tom Brady was sacked four times and threw only his fourth interception but became the first quarterback in league history to win 10 division titles. Brady, who celebrated the birth of a baby daughter Wednesday, has thrown for 15 touchdowns and one pick during the winning streak. Wes Walker had 12 receptions against Miami and will continue to see a heavy workload with fellow wideout Julian Edelman joining star tight end Rob Gronkowski on the sidelines with a season-ending foot injury. New England's pass defense has improved markedly since the acquisition of CB Aqib Talib from Tampa Bay.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans’ last six December games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Patriots have won 12 straight games in December and are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night games.

2. Houston, which is averaging 33.7 points in its last three games, can clinch the AFC South title with a win and a loss or tie by Indianapolis.

3. Brady has thrown a TD pass in 44 consecutive games, the third-longest streak in league history.

Tale of the tape: Texans at Patriots

Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots.

Offense

Houston, which is averaging 33.7 points over its last three games, is fourth in the league in total offense; the Patriots are first. The Texans boast a well-balanced attack led by RB Arian Foster, who leads the NFL with 15 touchdowns and the AFC with 1,102 yards rushing. Top receiver Andre Johnson is tied for fourth in the NFL with 1,114 yards receiving and is alone in fourth in the AFC with 74 catches.

New England tops the league in scoring at 35.8 points (more than six better than runner-up Houston) but had its second-lowest offensive output in last week's 23-16 win at Miami. Tom Brady was sacked four times and threw only his fourth interception. The Patriots will once again be without the services of Rob Gronkowski (forearm) but have Aaron Hernandez, who caught eight passes for 97 yards last week versus the Fish, to fill in.

Edge: Patriots

Defense

The Texans are without CB Brice McCain, their best slot defender, due to a broken foot and could march out top corner Johnathan Joseph at less than 100 percent. Joseph missed the last two games due to a tender hamstring and won’t get any favors from the cold and wet conditions expected to hit Gillette Stadium Monday night. Despite a beat up secondary, Houston has one of the toughest defenses in the league against the run and boasts pass-rush threat J.J. Watt.

New England's secondary was vulnerable to big plays early in the season and has allowed the fourth most yards passing in the NFL. But it has improved since Devin McCourty moved from cornerback to safety for the past six games and Aqib Talib was acquired from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Edge: Texans

Special teams

Rookie returner Keshawn Martin, who inherited duties on both kickoffs and punts after the Texans released Trindon Holliday after Week 5, is fourth in the league in punt-return average at 14.3 yards, and 21st in kickoff returns (24.1).

The Patriots special teams will suffer without Julian Edelman, who will be sidelined with a season-ending foot injury. Edelman split time as the third receiver this year and was a terror on special teams. He had 21 receptions, three touchdowns and also a 68-yard punt return for a touchdown. The loss of Edelman could mean a heavier workload for Wes Welker as a punt returner. Welker filled in for three weeks earlier this season when Edelman missed time with a hand injury.

Edge: Texans

Word on the street

“I think he’s extremely athletic for such a big man. Heck, I just left a special teams meeting and watched him rush a punter. There’s no telling how he’s going to be involved in the game, but he’s a huge factor week in and week out. He plays all over the place, so all of our guys will probably go against him upfront somehow, someway because of the many places that he plays." -- Texans head coach Gary Kubiak on Patriots DT Vince Wilfork.

"They're a very well-balanced team. If you're stopping the run, you're light on the play-action (passing attack). If you're stopping the play-action, you're probably light on the run. They do a good job of tying those plays together, complementing each other and making you defend all of it." -- Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the Houston offense.

Bank Shots: NBA Betting News and Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

Hottest ATS Team

San Antonio Spurs – This week: 3-0 ATS, Season: 14-6-1

San Antonio has covered in three straight and six of its last seven games. The Spurs rolled to convincing victories over the Bucks, Rockets and Bobcats this week to dethrone Oklahoma City as the best cover team in the league heading into action on Sunday. San Antonio continues its four-game road trip this week with stops in Houston, Utah and Portland.

Coldest ATS Team

Cleveland Cavaliers – This week: 0-3 ATS, Season: 9-12

The Cavs have been failing miserably ATS since budding star Kyrie Irving (finger) was lost due to injury on Nov. 21. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last five games and coach Byron Scott is hopeful that Irving and backcourt partner Dion Waiters (ankle) will be able to suit up for the team’s next game against the Lakers on Tuesday.

Hottest OVER Bet

Los Angeles Clippers – This week: 3-0 over, Season: 13-6 O/U

The Clippers have played over the total in seven straight games, thanks to their high-powered offense. Los Angeles is averaging 110 points over its last five contests and is tied with Golden State for the best over mark in the league. The Clippers host Toronto on Sunday, before heading out for a four-game east coast road trip.

Hottest UNDER Bet

Chicago Bulls – This week: 3-1 under, Season: 6-13 O/U

The Bulls offense continues to struggle without Derrick Rose. To make matters worse, Chicago may be without Kirk Hinrich for a few games. The guard injured his left elbow during Saturday’s win over the Knicks and is considered day-to-day. The Bulls have a tough slate of games this week with dates against the Clippers, Sixers and Nets.

Scouting the schedule

-The Miami Heat play the third game of a six-game homestand Monday when they welcome the Hawks. Miami is 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS at home this season.

-The Denver Nuggets have a jam-packed schedule this week. The Nuggets will play five games in seven nights, including four road contests at New York, Detroit, Minnesota and Sacramento. Denver is a respectable 7-7 ATS away from home this season.