[h=1]Luckiest teams of 2012 season[/h][h=3]Notre Dame among teams that got the most breaks this season[/h]
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders ESPN INSIDER
Bowl season is upon us, and 70 college football teams will soon have an opportunity to cruise into the offseason riding a wave of enthusiasm or frustration. Some fans are inclined to treat season finales as critical moments that define the near-term trajectory of their favorite program, while poll voters are often inclined to reward bowl victories with favorable preseason position in the fall.
And yet, bowl games don't mean that much, certainly not in comparison to season-long data and multi-year data. Our research at Football Outsiders has found that five years of data has a stronger correlation to next-year success than any other base measure we have tested. A bowl game is part of the equation, and an important one since it provides valuable cross-conference comparisons for our opponent adjustments. But it's only one game of many.
Not only that, but results of individual games need to be broken down further to better understand which teams are best equipped for success next year. Part of that analysis is identifying which teams may have overachieved or underachieved in 2012.
For the most part, the outcome of a game is a good indicator of which team was better on that day, but some games are impacted by good and bad fortune more than others. Some teams have an inordinately strong or weak record in one-possession games. Some teams benefit from turnovers, field position and special teams more than others. Is it luck? Not necessarily, but these can be indicators that a change of fortune is in store for next season.
Here are five teams that were among the luckiest in 2012, and what they'll need to work on to avoid taking a step back next season. (For a look at the five unluckiest teams, click on the link below.)
Note: For an explanation of FEI numbers, which help form the basis of these projections, click here.
[h=3]1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)[/h]
One of our measures of overachievement is based on win expectations, a measure of a team's record as compared with its performance. Most teams play within one game of expected average wins over the course of the year, but there are outliers like the Buckeyes. According to our data, Ohio State won 2.0 more games than a team with its FEI rating against its schedule should have been expected to win. In the last five years, teams that had a mean wins performance at least two games better than expected lost an average of 2.6 more games the following year.
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Urban Meyer's team can avoid that drop-off by continuing its dominant play in value drive scoring, defined as possessions that start on a team's own side of the field and cross the opponent's 30-yard line. Ohio State ranked seventh nationally in net points per value drive this season. The top ten teams in the category had a combined record of 100 wins and 18 losses against FBS teams this year. Meyer's last championship team in Florida ranked No. 1 in net points per value drive in 2008.
[h=3]2. LSU Tigers (10-2)[/h]
Can we really call LSU fortunate in 2012? The Tigers were a preseason favorite to contend for the national championship and lost twice in single-score games to BCS-bound SEC rivals. Those performances were impressive, as were tight victories over South Carolina and Texas A&M. That four-game stretch in five weeks was among the nation's toughest. So why were they "lucky"?
The tight victories over Auburn, Mississippi and Arkansas are the reason. LSU racked up a 13.7 point advantage in field position alone in the win over the Rebels, more than twice the margin of victory in the game. The win over Arkansas, like the win over Texas A&M earlier in the year, was powered by turnover value generated. LSU ranked second nationally this season in wins generated on non-offensive plays. That's been a bit of a calling card for the Tigers in the Les Miles era, and though they rode special teams and defense to a championship berth a year ago, they aren't likely to consistently win based on those two units alone.
[h=3]3. Stanford Cardinal (11-2)[/h]
Like LSU, Stanford had a bit of bad fortune this year and may not stand out as a "lucky" team in the eyes of many. The Cardinal was on the wrong end of a couple of close games, including an overtime loss to Notre Dame that helped propel the Irish to the national championship game, a game decided on a debated call. But the Pac-12 champs lived on the edge all season, and came out on top more often than not. Stanford won seven games decided by a touchdown or less, including overtime victories over Arizona and Oregon.
Generally, teams are expected to play to about a .500 record in close games over many years, so some regression to the mean is expected when a team has an exceptional record in close games. But Stanford appears to have found a new future star quarterback in Kevin Hogan, and the Cardinal have the kind of balanced offense and sound defense to play with anyone in the conference for years to come. Consistency on offense needs to be improved this offseason (Stanford was below average in all of our raw offensive efficiency measures) to keep them on top alongside Oregon.
[h=3]4. Louisville Cardinals (9-2)[/h]
Louisville is yet another conference champion that was a bit of an overachiever this year according to our statistical analysis. The Cardinals won three games on the strength of turnover margins -- in wins over Cincinnati, South Florida and Rutgers the value gained on turnover exchanges (plus-13.0 points, cumulatively) exceeded the final scoring margin in those games (eight points). Louisville had turnover value deficits in losses to Syracuse and Connecticut, but those turnovers didn't decide the outcome.
One area that must dramatically improve next year is managing field position. Louisville ran a field position deficit in each of its first nine FBS games, and finished the year ranked 99th in field position advantage. They are fortunate that it didn't cost them another game or two in wins, as teams that win the field position battle win the game about 66 percent of the time. Improved special teams (Louisville ranks 114th by our special teams efficiency measure) will be critical for success next year.
[h=3]5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0)[/h]
Like Ohio State, Notre Dame also finished with a record exceeding performance expectations, winning 1.6 games more than a team with its efficiency against its schedule should have expected to achieve. The Irish escaped very close calls against Pittsburgh and Stanford in overtime, and edged Purdue, Michigan and BYU by less than a touchdown.
Those near-losses have many across the country thinking the Irish are a bit overrated heading into the championship showdown with Alabama. Our opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive measures disagree, ranking Notre Dame as one of the most balanced teams on both sides of the ball (sixth-ranked offense, second-ranked defense according to FEI). That balance helped the Irish overcome poor special teams play throughout the year.
Special teams play and poor field position was the difference between winning comfortably in their close games and having those games come down to a final drive or goal line stand. The Irish defense has come up big in pressure situations, and they are clearly riding a wave of good fortune to the championship. They'll need to avoid special teams miscues to win in Miami and pick up where they left off next year.
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders ESPN INSIDER
Bowl season is upon us, and 70 college football teams will soon have an opportunity to cruise into the offseason riding a wave of enthusiasm or frustration. Some fans are inclined to treat season finales as critical moments that define the near-term trajectory of their favorite program, while poll voters are often inclined to reward bowl victories with favorable preseason position in the fall.
And yet, bowl games don't mean that much, certainly not in comparison to season-long data and multi-year data. Our research at Football Outsiders has found that five years of data has a stronger correlation to next-year success than any other base measure we have tested. A bowl game is part of the equation, and an important one since it provides valuable cross-conference comparisons for our opponent adjustments. But it's only one game of many.
Not only that, but results of individual games need to be broken down further to better understand which teams are best equipped for success next year. Part of that analysis is identifying which teams may have overachieved or underachieved in 2012.
For the most part, the outcome of a game is a good indicator of which team was better on that day, but some games are impacted by good and bad fortune more than others. Some teams have an inordinately strong or weak record in one-possession games. Some teams benefit from turnovers, field position and special teams more than others. Is it luck? Not necessarily, but these can be indicators that a change of fortune is in store for next season.
Here are five teams that were among the luckiest in 2012, and what they'll need to work on to avoid taking a step back next season. (For a look at the five unluckiest teams, click on the link below.)
Note: For an explanation of FEI numbers, which help form the basis of these projections, click here.
[h=3]1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)[/h]
One of our measures of overachievement is based on win expectations, a measure of a team's record as compared with its performance. Most teams play within one game of expected average wins over the course of the year, but there are outliers like the Buckeyes. According to our data, Ohio State won 2.0 more games than a team with its FEI rating against its schedule should have been expected to win. In the last five years, teams that had a mean wins performance at least two games better than expected lost an average of 2.6 more games the following year.
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Urban Meyer's team can avoid that drop-off by continuing its dominant play in value drive scoring, defined as possessions that start on a team's own side of the field and cross the opponent's 30-yard line. Ohio State ranked seventh nationally in net points per value drive this season. The top ten teams in the category had a combined record of 100 wins and 18 losses against FBS teams this year. Meyer's last championship team in Florida ranked No. 1 in net points per value drive in 2008.
[h=3]2. LSU Tigers (10-2)[/h]
Can we really call LSU fortunate in 2012? The Tigers were a preseason favorite to contend for the national championship and lost twice in single-score games to BCS-bound SEC rivals. Those performances were impressive, as were tight victories over South Carolina and Texas A&M. That four-game stretch in five weeks was among the nation's toughest. So why were they "lucky"?
The tight victories over Auburn, Mississippi and Arkansas are the reason. LSU racked up a 13.7 point advantage in field position alone in the win over the Rebels, more than twice the margin of victory in the game. The win over Arkansas, like the win over Texas A&M earlier in the year, was powered by turnover value generated. LSU ranked second nationally this season in wins generated on non-offensive plays. That's been a bit of a calling card for the Tigers in the Les Miles era, and though they rode special teams and defense to a championship berth a year ago, they aren't likely to consistently win based on those two units alone.
[h=3]3. Stanford Cardinal (11-2)[/h]
Like LSU, Stanford had a bit of bad fortune this year and may not stand out as a "lucky" team in the eyes of many. The Cardinal was on the wrong end of a couple of close games, including an overtime loss to Notre Dame that helped propel the Irish to the national championship game, a game decided on a debated call. But the Pac-12 champs lived on the edge all season, and came out on top more often than not. Stanford won seven games decided by a touchdown or less, including overtime victories over Arizona and Oregon.
Generally, teams are expected to play to about a .500 record in close games over many years, so some regression to the mean is expected when a team has an exceptional record in close games. But Stanford appears to have found a new future star quarterback in Kevin Hogan, and the Cardinal have the kind of balanced offense and sound defense to play with anyone in the conference for years to come. Consistency on offense needs to be improved this offseason (Stanford was below average in all of our raw offensive efficiency measures) to keep them on top alongside Oregon.
[h=3]4. Louisville Cardinals (9-2)[/h]
Louisville is yet another conference champion that was a bit of an overachiever this year according to our statistical analysis. The Cardinals won three games on the strength of turnover margins -- in wins over Cincinnati, South Florida and Rutgers the value gained on turnover exchanges (plus-13.0 points, cumulatively) exceeded the final scoring margin in those games (eight points). Louisville had turnover value deficits in losses to Syracuse and Connecticut, but those turnovers didn't decide the outcome.
One area that must dramatically improve next year is managing field position. Louisville ran a field position deficit in each of its first nine FBS games, and finished the year ranked 99th in field position advantage. They are fortunate that it didn't cost them another game or two in wins, as teams that win the field position battle win the game about 66 percent of the time. Improved special teams (Louisville ranks 114th by our special teams efficiency measure) will be critical for success next year.
[h=3]5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0)[/h]
Like Ohio State, Notre Dame also finished with a record exceeding performance expectations, winning 1.6 games more than a team with its efficiency against its schedule should have expected to achieve. The Irish escaped very close calls against Pittsburgh and Stanford in overtime, and edged Purdue, Michigan and BYU by less than a touchdown.
Those near-losses have many across the country thinking the Irish are a bit overrated heading into the championship showdown with Alabama. Our opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive measures disagree, ranking Notre Dame as one of the most balanced teams on both sides of the ball (sixth-ranked offense, second-ranked defense according to FEI). That balance helped the Irish overcome poor special teams play throughout the year.
Special teams play and poor field position was the difference between winning comfortably in their close games and having those games come down to a final drive or goal line stand. The Irish defense has come up big in pressure situations, and they are clearly riding a wave of good fortune to the championship. They'll need to avoid special teams miscues to win in Miami and pick up where they left off next year.
