Is it psychologically possible to fade yourself?

CHOPTALK · Dec 12, 2012

I have known for years I am the worst NBA capper in the history of EARTH.
I have to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 35% lifetime.

I have for years asked myself "Why dont I just fade myself?"

I will instantly go from being a 35% NBA capper to a 65% NBA capper overnight.

I have dabbled into fading myself in the NBA for a long time.

I even tried it for 2 or 3 days 2 or 3 times over the years.

I always ended up not being able to pull the trigger betting the opposite of what I think will happen.

Even though I concede that I am the worlds worst NBA capper.

So tonight I made the decision of taking the game that I thought the strongest about and bet the exact opposite.

I bet Toronto +4 firsthalf instead of Brooklyn -4.

I felt terrible clicking submit on a bet that I felt completely opposite of the way I bet the game.

But here I am with an easy Toronto cover on a game I would have bet the other way had I not faded myself.

I think the first step in fading yourself is to come to the realization that you suck in a certain sport.
I have come to that realization a long time ago in the NBA.

So my questions are:

Is it psychologically possible to fade yourself longterm?
Have you ever faded yourself?

HacheMan · Dec 12, 2012

I've thought about the same thing, but when you really think about it, I don't believe it's possible because every selection you make you contemplate and second-guess on wondering if you just picked that side or total because it was your initial decision, or vice-versa...lol

Doug · Dec 12, 2012

yeah, I think you'd fuck up your head trying to fade yourself, because you know you're doing it, better to fade some poster that isn;t aware of it

gmenknicks · Dec 12, 2012

this would be maddening.....and then you would try to trick yourself into making the fade be what you actually wanted.....just come over to eog and fade me....i started off around 60% guarantee a big decline is coming....start tonight...im on memphis -6.5

Defying · Dec 12, 2012

think thats an excellent question.... I think no at least for me personally. I would be playing to many mind games with myself...

And Chop, I was the same way until I became good friends with this one guy. He's obsessed with basketball and we talk sports for hours. He's seriously taught me a ton. I'm a very confident NBA Capper as the season progresses... I not confident now because I haven't watched much, but anytime I do, I call him and dicuss what I felt like I saw and he explains a little more....

Defying · Dec 12, 2012

gmenknicks said:
this would be maddening.....and then you would try to trick yourself into making the fade be what you actually wanted.....

exactly how I feel

CHOPTALK · Dec 12, 2012

Hache Man said:
I've thought about the same thing, but when you really think about it, I don't believe it's possible because every selection you make you contemplate and second-guess on wondering if you just picked that side or total because it was your initial decision, or vice-versa...lol

The hard part for me is if I fade myself and my original selection would have won.
That would almost feel like losing 2 bets.

But I must say the opposite is just as sweet.
I would have never bet Toronto +4 1st half in a million years on my own.
I really faded myself on that pick tonight and it feels like I won 2 bets instead of just 1.

CHOPTALK · Dec 12, 2012

gmenknicks said:
this would be maddening.....and then you would try to trick yourself into making the fade be what you actually wanted.....just come over to eog and fade me....i started off around 60% guarantee a big decline is coming....start tonight...im on memphis -6.5

This was the problem I ran into the 1st 2 or 3 times I tried to fade myself.

Thats why tonight I took the very strongest play that I had and bet the opposite.

This way I know im not playing mind tricks with myself.

There is no way in heck I would have ever bet Toronto 1st half tonight unless I was fading myself.

On marginal plays it would be real easy to trick my mind into fading my fade which in turn would bring me right back to where I started.

I think fading yourself will only work on plays that you are certain you would have bet team A instead of team B

CHOPTALK · Dec 12, 2012

Hache Man said:
I've thought about the same thing, but when you really think about it, I don't believe it's possible because every selection you make you contemplate and second-guess on wondering if you just picked that side or total because it was your initial decision, or vice-versa...lol

I agree.
This is why I only did this with my strongest play of the night knowing my mind could not play tricks on me.

So my new strategy is to bet less games, and only bet on the ones that I know that I know I would have bet TEAM A instead of TEAM B unless I was fading myself.

JustinCruise · Dec 12, 2012

Defying said:
think thats an excellent question.... I think no at least for me personally. I would be playing to many mind games with myself...

And Chop, I was the same way until I became good friends with this one guy. He's obsessed with basketball and we talk sports for hours. He's seriously taught me a ton. I'm a very confident NBA Capper as the season progresses... I not confident now because I haven't watched much, but anytime I do, I call him and dicuss what I felt like I saw and he explains a little more....

The nba regular season, especially this year, is nearly impossible. It's so illogical and random. But you are very right about it getting easier as the season progresses. The playoffs are a whole different animal, and much much easier to predict. I can turn a profit on the nba playoffs every year.

To answer the original question, I think it would be impossible to do this psychologically. And you might lose your mind in the process. It reminds me of the hilarious Seinfeld episode where George makes the opposite decision of his instincts every time and things finally start going well for him. In real life though, best bet is to stay away from the sports we're bad at (even though it's really hard to do).

KillaRSox · Dec 12, 2012

JustinCruise said:
The nba regular season, especially this year, is nearly impossible. It's so illogical and random. But you are very right about it getting easier as the season progresses. The playoffs are a whole different animal, and much much easier to predict. I can turn a profit on the nba playoffs every year.

To answer the original question, I think it would be impossible to do this psychologically. And you might lose your mind in the process. It reminds me of the hilarious Seinfeld episode where George makes the opposite decision of his instincts every time and things finally start going well for him. In real life though, best bet is to stay away from the sports we're bad at (even though it's really hard to do).

Be very careful what you say....

GL to you, just saying.

Murphy8276 · Dec 12, 2012

I find this very hard to do.. if u could give someone your plays and they do it quietly without u knowing then it might work.. but streaks go hot n cold so my suggestion is to keep grinding.. lower units on each bet if u have to

-murph

JustinCruise · Dec 12, 2012

KillaRSox said:
Be very careful what you say....

GL to you, just saying.

I knocked on wood lol

KillaRSox · Dec 12, 2012

JustinCruise said:
I knocked on wood lol

haha good call.

Murphy8276 · Dec 12, 2012

JustinCruise said:
I knocked on wood lol

:lolBIG:

u are now covered by the gambling gods puff_>>

-murph

JustinCruise · Dec 12, 2012

gmenknicks said:
this would be maddening.....and then you would try to trick yourself into making the fade be what you actually wanted.....just come over to eog and fade me....i started off around 60% guarantee a big decline is coming....start tonight...im on memphis -6.5

perfect example. No logical reason whatsoever for 14-4 memphis to be on the verge of losing straight up to a team that has lost 7 straight and just lost to orlando at home by 8. If someone can predict that they are a genius.

Mr_Mark · Dec 13, 2012

maybe .... make your picks but dont place the bets. Give the money to a trusted source (brother, cousin or good friend) with instructions to fade you. Might work a few times but cant see it panning out in the long run

BAGIANT · Dec 13, 2012

Once you start winning, it will be very easy to fade yourself. I had the same problem with the NFL many years ago, and when I finally went the other way on a MNF game and won, it became easier and easier to do.

Defying · Dec 13, 2012

Mr_Mark said:
maybe .... make your picks but dont place the bets. Give the money to a trusted source (brother, cousin or good friend) with instructions to fade you. Might work a few times but cant see it panning out in the long run

Probably the only way I could do it.

Huckel · Dec 13, 2012

I did it to success about 2 years for about a week I looked at the card before the spread and circles all the games with what i thought the line would be and played it if it was anywhere close

Its impossible after like 3 days because you know your essentially picking the other side etc

At one time i also tried playing games/sides that i was thought would lose or would not want to be on but after awhile i was like this is stupid and tried to only play my fav play but after i sucked at that i gave up

Is it psychologically possible to fade yourself?

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