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Dave Tuley ESPN INSIDER[/h]
Last week: 4-2-1 ATS | Year to date: 65-44-1 (59.6 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.
Spread: Packers minus-3
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Packers
Public perception: The public sees this as two teams heading in opposite directions. The Packers have recovered from a slow start and have passed the Bears in the NFC North, so the public is lining up to back the ever-popular Pack per usual.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps view this as a much more even matchup. In fact, the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll that I
put together on Tuesday for ESPN Insider has these teams only 2.5 points different in the power ratings and the Bears as one of three plays this week when their home-field advantage is taken into effect.
Tuley's Take: I would love to make a case for the home underdog here, but a few things scare me. I'm not a big "revenge" handicapper and would usually rather have the team that proved it can beat the other in the most-recent matchup. The Packers dominated the Bears back in Week 2 and the two teams' recent form doesn't give me confidence that the Bears' offensive line can keep Jay Cutler safe enough to keep them in the game.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Packers).
Spread: Falcons minus-1.5
Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Giants
Public perception: This is just one of three Sunday games where the public is siding with the underdog and it's no surprise. Eli Manning usually shines in December, plus the Giants are a better road team than at home. Besides, the Falcons lost to the Panthers last week.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys have been saying all year that the Falcons aren't as good as their record. The sharps have already been grabbing the Giants in teasers to get them plus-7.5 as well as backing them in straight bets.
Tuley's Take: Atlanta apologists will remind us that the Falcons are undefeated at home this year and 32-4 in quarterback Matt Ryan's career, but let's not forget that they were barely able to pull out straight-up home wins (and didn't cover) against the Panthers, Raiders and Cardinals. The Giants aren't as likely to let them off the hook.
The pick: Giants.
Spread: Saints minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Saints
Public perception: The public started to believe in the Buccaneers after they started the season 8-1 ATS, but they've lost three straight games and have gone 0-1-2 ATS in those three games, and those that only got plus-7.5 two weeks ago against the Broncos are 0-2-1.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps aren't as quick to jump back on the Saints, who have also lost three straight games. And their home-field advantage is nowhere near as strong as last year when they were 8-0 SU and ATS. This year, the Saints are 3-3 SU and ATS at home.
Tuley's Take: I agree with the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll, which has the Buccaneers as a half-point better on a neutral field. While they didn't cover in the first meeting (having a potential tying TD overturned on the final play of regulation), the Bucs showed they can play with the Saints and should match them score for score.
The pick: Buccaneers.
Spread: Rams minus-3
Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Vikings
Public perception: Both teams are still dreaming of a wild-card spot, but the public seems to be gravitating to the underdog because of Adrian Peterson's great comeback as he pursues 2,000 rushing yards.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game. Both teams have been great under-the-radar underdog teams. A lot of wiseguys are taking the plus-3 with the Vikings while others are laying just minus-2.5 with the Rams (some are playing both sides and hoping it lands on the key number).
Tuley's Take: Both teams have been good to yours truly, so I've flip-flopped on this game and when that happens it's usually a good idea to pass.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Vikings, especially if you get plus-3).
Spread: Redskins minus-1.5 (off the board many places)
Public consensus pick: N/A
Public perception: This game is still off the board at most books because of Robert Griffin III's questionable/doubtful status. The public will certainly be on the Redskins if he is cleared to play.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also will wait to see what happens. The Browns have also been playing solid football -- and 8-4-1 ATS compared to the Skins' 9-4 -- and won't be afraid to jump in on Cleveland.
Tuley's Take: While I'm also impressed with how the Browns have exceeded expectations, I am interested to see if the oddsmakers overadjust if Kirk Cousins is forced into the starting lineup.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Redskins).
Spread: Dolphins minus-7
Public consensus pick: 50.3 percent picked Dolphins
Public perception: The public is split on this one. (What else is new in Florida, given its recent presidential voting history?)
Wiseguys' view: Neither team inspires much betting confidence at 6-7 ATS until you look deeper and find the Jaguars are 5-1 ATS on the road while the Dolphins are 3-3 ATS at home, but 0-2 ATS as a favorite.
Tuley's Take: It is puzzling that this line is so high. In addition to that fact that the Dolphins failed to cover as home faves against the Rams and Titans, the Jaguars are also 2-0 ATS when getting more than a touchdown, covering against the Packers and Texans.
The pick: Jaguars.
Spread: Broncos minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Broncos
Public perception: Yes, the Broncos' bandwagon continues to fill up, but are we also seeing the public turn from the once-popular Ravens? Their back-to-back losses to the Steelers (with Charlie Batch) and the Redskins (with backup Cousins) came on the heels of a comeback win against the Steelers (with Byron Leftwich) and the miracle win over the Chargers.
Wiseguys' view: There are plenty of sharps who still believe in the Ravens and will gladly take them plus-3 as a home dog, but plenty are also firing away on the Broncos. The key, as always, is getting the best number no matter which side you're betting.
Tuley's Take: I would need a full field goal to consider the Ravens here, but it still wouldn't be one of my top plays on the card.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Ravens, more so at plus-3, though I feel more comfortable with my teaser with the Giants).
Spread: Texans minus-9
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Colts
Public perception: Peyton Manning's replacement in Indy, Andrew Luck, has a bandwagon of his own. The Colts are 9-4 SU and ATS, and in control of their playoff destiny. Add in the Texans' blowout loss in prime time on Monday night and you have the public all over the dog.
Wiseguys' view: Again, in another sign this is a really good Sunday card, the wiseguys are split here, though more likely to take the points with Colts. Some sharps also teasing the Texans under a field goal at books that have the line at 8.5.
Tuley's Take: I've said it before and I'll say it again: the only worse bet than an overinflated public favorite is a public underdog. When everyone is predicting an upset, that's usually the time to stay away.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans).
Spread: Chargers minus-3
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Chargers
Public perception: Both teams are coming off impressive upset wins, the Panthers over the Falcons and the Chargers over the Steelers. The public is pretty split on this one.
Wiseguys' view: The Panthers are getting a little support, but there's not a compelling reason to land on either side and most will have their attention elsewhere.
Tuley's Take: This is one of those games where I said the schedule-maker did us a favor by giving us the chance to concentrate elsewhere.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Chargers).
Spread: Seahawks minus-5.5
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: The Seahawks have a lot of believers, even before their 58-0 shellacking of the Cardinals as they went on the road to beat the Bears two weeks ago. The Bills are not getting much support in their annual home game away from home.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys grabbed the Seahawks at minus-3 but it has been the public pushing it higher ever since. Except the sharps to jump on the underdog if it gets to 6 (and the line has shown no signs of slowing).
Tuley's Take: With the game in Toronto, the Bills aren't at home, but neither are the Seahawks, who are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away despite the win over the Bears. The Bills have mostly been competitive (covering three of the past five and being in most other games) and shouldn't be getting this many points even at neutral site.
The pick: Bills.
Spread: Lions minus-6.5
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Lions
Public perception: Both teams have let down bettors, but nothing sticks out more than a 58-0 loss, so the public is driving up the price on the Lions and they'll probably be on every chalk teaser.
Wiseguys' view: This is a matchup of teams the wiseguys would love to be fading against other teams. Even so, they probably won't be able to resist teasing the Lions under a field goal and trust they're the lesser of two evils.
Tuley's Take: I'm sick of watching these two teams as well and will gladly devote my Sunday afternoon to the more attractive games on the card and check the highlights and box scores later.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cardinals).
Spread: Steelers minus-1.5
Public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Steelers
Public perception: Both teams are battling for the wild cards in their respective conferences. Both are traditional public teams, so we definitely have a split of opinion.
Wiseguys' view: The Steelers opened as a short dog at several books but quickly got bet to favoritism by the wise guys, mostly because the Cowboys do not have any home-field advantage (0-6 ATS with only one outright win over the Eagles).
Tuley's Take: I missed out on the Steelers as a dog, but they're still better overall than the Cowboys, so I'll revive my "Chalk Pick of the Week."
The pick: Steelers.
Spread: Raiders minus-3
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Raiders
Public perception: More than 60 percent on the Raiders (and I've seen some sites showing 80 percent of bets on them)? They're the worst bet in the NFL at 3-10 ATS, but I guess that shows how much the public doesn't want any part of the Chiefs (5-8 ATS).
Wiseguys' view: Here's another game with no definitive sharp side. I haven't even heard wiseguys saying they want to tease the Chiefs over a touchdown.
Tuley's Take: Again, God bless the schedule-maker for clumping the games this way.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders, only because they've let me down so many times in a row that they're bound to win/cover when I don't play them).
Spread: Patriots minus-5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Patriots
Public perception: The Patriots were impressive in their 42-14 dismantling of the Texans before a national audience. The 49ers are not seen as strong as they once were.
Wiseguys' view: There are some sharps who still believe in the 49ers and will be taking them as an underdog here, but just as many know that they were lucky to cover against the Dolphins and the Colin Kaerpernick debut against the Bears is their only solid game since October.
Tuley's Take: I'm not able to back the 49ers off their recent form (and also not willing to jump in front of the Patriots' train).
The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).
Spread: Titans minus-1.5
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Titans
Public perception: The public seems to be backing the Titans by default. Not even the news that the 6-7 Jets have an outside shot at the playoffs has people thinking they're in a must-win situation and might come through. If the Steelers lose to give the Jets more hope, you might see more support on the Jets.
Wiseguys' view: Unlike the other unattractive matchups, this will get action just because it's on ESPN's "Monday Night Football." The books will be cheering against getting middled on a Titans cover (at minus-1.5) and a Jets' teaser win (plus-7.5).
Tuley's Take: As strange as it sounds, the Jets have played better of late, except for the Patriots' rout; and, well, the ugly non-covering win over the hapless Cardinals. But they're still more consistent than the Titans. Note: This is probably my least-confident play of the weekend (though for some reason those plays have been doing better than my "best bets").
The pick: Jets.
