Week 15's key NFL line moves
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
I like to hear Jimmy Vaccaro talk.He's one of the last of the old school Vegas bookmakers, now booking for William Hill, but he's worked in nearly every joint around the city, from downtown to The Strip. It's not just the info he shares, but the color he adds. He sounds like an off color Damon Runyan character, all sharps and squares and a kick in the you-know-whats.
On Thursday afternoon I was thinking hard about the Lions and the Cardinals and who could possibly bet Arizona. So I called Jimmy. Anyone who watched the Cardinals get whitewashed by 58 points last weekend understands that this is a team that might as well run the Wildcat full-time. They do not have a competent quarterback. I'm not trying to make a snarky Internetty blog joke. As my 6-year-old likes to say, "I'm for serious." They just don't have an option behind center. It's a shame, really, for Larry Fitzgerald, for Cardinals fans, for the defense, for anyone who watches football.
Or bets on it. Because the gambling gods did something interesting this week. If we were lucky, the Cards would have followed up their Seattle game on the road against a winning team. We could have had some kind of historic spread at a time when absolutely no one in the right mind would consider betting on the Cardinals no matter what the number. But we got something a little trickier: They end up playing at home against the underperforming Lions. Instead of double-digits we've got a home dog getting a touchdown and playing against an undisciplined team that has habitually given up leads this year. At first glance, it makes you pause. So I asked Jimmy, "Have you had a single bet on the Cardinals yet?"
"Not a single person," he told me. "Not even Bill Bidwell will bet on this team right now."
That will change as the weekend gets closer. I had Vegas Runner on my podcast on Thursday afternoon and he was insistent he will get a piece of the Cardinals at plus-seven. He has no faith in the Lions and thinks they will play to their record this season. But still, most people will be on the Lions; this game might get more tickets written than any other this weekend. And it speaks to a phenomenon the books have been dealing with more and more these past few years.
"There are so many more people betting, and they only want two things: favorites and overs," Vaccaro says. "They don't look at numbers. They just bet teams."
This has always been the public's m.o. It's why the spreads for teams like New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and the Bears can occasionally be shaded a little higher. Bookmakers know the action from recreational bettors will be so high they can afford to take a substantial amount of wiseguy action on the other side. But now, because betting is so much more prevalent and information is much easier to come by, that philosophy is extending to teams that have never been historically public but are hot for a season, or even just a stretch of it.
"We are needing the smarts more and more these days," Vaccaro says. "It has been feast or famine with the favorites. And it's forcing us to move our numbers a lot faster than we have in the past."
This was a common theme in Vegas all week. And not just with the Lions game. But with the Niners and Pats and Broncos and Ravens and other, too. Vaccaro broke down several of those games below.
<offer>[h=3]Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Line moves: Lions opened at minus-6, currently at minus-6.5/7
Vaccaro says: "Let's say the Cards scored more than zero and the Lions got beat a little more. Even with Arizona having a bad QB, with the Lions traveling against a dead team the number figured to be four. But we know we will add a point or point and a half at least, plus the early money was going to show, so it went up. What's the breaking point? If the game goes to 7.5, as bad as the cards are, would you take it? Yeah we will get bites."
[h=3]San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots[/h]Line moves: Opened Patriots minuts-4.5, currently minus-5.5
Vaccaro says: "This was not a hard number to make. Before the blowout happened on Monday night it would have been three. That is actually what people had posted in the pre-weekend lines. After the blowout some wiseguys jumped on the three knowing it would go sky high. It still might go higher. All people want to bet are the Patriots and the over."
[h=3]Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills[/h]Line moves: Opened Seahawks minus-5.5, currently Seahawks minus-5.5/6
Vaccaro says: "This was a minimum of four. But after the Bills gave up the game in the last play last week, and just reading about them and how much the players and fans hate that this game was taken from Buffalo and put in Toronto changes things, in favor of Seattle. There might be more Seattle fans in the building than Buffalo. The Bills season is just about done. This will be a decent sized game because it's a late game."
[h=3]Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Line moves: Opened Broncos minus-2.5, currently Broncos minus-3
Vaccaro says: "You can see what Manning has done for this team. We write more tickets on the Broncos than any team right now. He has swayed everyone. The recreational guy loves him and they are coming in more on him each week. They are going to the east coast against a Ravens team that is fighting for it. But you know the bulk of the parlays will be on Manning. In fact, parlay money is 3-1 on Denver already."
[h=3]Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans[/h]Line moves: Texans opened minus-8, currently minus-9
Vaccaro says: "You jack it up a little bit because Houston got it stuck to them on Monday night. The smart guy would have played Indy seven or higher if Houston had beaten New England. Now it's a different angle and the Texans are pissed and have to fight off the new kid."
[h=3]The Millman Rankings[/h]Here are this week's Millman Rankings, with help from Evan Abrams (@betropolitan). We've added the players who would replace the starters to further understand the difference in value between first string and backup.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]The Millman Rankings[/h]
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>Bold: On list 11/16/12, moved up
Red: On list 11/16/12, moved down
Green: New to list for 11/23/12
Purple: Injured but on active roster
IR: On injured reserve
Yellow: On list 11/16/12, moved up, injured, active roster
Blue: New to list for 11/23/12, injured, active roster
*= 0.5 point increase
**= 1 point increase
#= 0.5 point decrease</offer>
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
I like to hear Jimmy Vaccaro talk.He's one of the last of the old school Vegas bookmakers, now booking for William Hill, but he's worked in nearly every joint around the city, from downtown to The Strip. It's not just the info he shares, but the color he adds. He sounds like an off color Damon Runyan character, all sharps and squares and a kick in the you-know-whats.
On Thursday afternoon I was thinking hard about the Lions and the Cardinals and who could possibly bet Arizona. So I called Jimmy. Anyone who watched the Cardinals get whitewashed by 58 points last weekend understands that this is a team that might as well run the Wildcat full-time. They do not have a competent quarterback. I'm not trying to make a snarky Internetty blog joke. As my 6-year-old likes to say, "I'm for serious." They just don't have an option behind center. It's a shame, really, for Larry Fitzgerald, for Cardinals fans, for the defense, for anyone who watches football.
Or bets on it. Because the gambling gods did something interesting this week. If we were lucky, the Cards would have followed up their Seattle game on the road against a winning team. We could have had some kind of historic spread at a time when absolutely no one in the right mind would consider betting on the Cardinals no matter what the number. But we got something a little trickier: They end up playing at home against the underperforming Lions. Instead of double-digits we've got a home dog getting a touchdown and playing against an undisciplined team that has habitually given up leads this year. At first glance, it makes you pause. So I asked Jimmy, "Have you had a single bet on the Cardinals yet?"
"Not a single person," he told me. "Not even Bill Bidwell will bet on this team right now."
That will change as the weekend gets closer. I had Vegas Runner on my podcast on Thursday afternoon and he was insistent he will get a piece of the Cardinals at plus-seven. He has no faith in the Lions and thinks they will play to their record this season. But still, most people will be on the Lions; this game might get more tickets written than any other this weekend. And it speaks to a phenomenon the books have been dealing with more and more these past few years.
"There are so many more people betting, and they only want two things: favorites and overs," Vaccaro says. "They don't look at numbers. They just bet teams."
This has always been the public's m.o. It's why the spreads for teams like New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and the Bears can occasionally be shaded a little higher. Bookmakers know the action from recreational bettors will be so high they can afford to take a substantial amount of wiseguy action on the other side. But now, because betting is so much more prevalent and information is much easier to come by, that philosophy is extending to teams that have never been historically public but are hot for a season, or even just a stretch of it.
"We are needing the smarts more and more these days," Vaccaro says. "It has been feast or famine with the favorites. And it's forcing us to move our numbers a lot faster than we have in the past."
This was a common theme in Vegas all week. And not just with the Lions game. But with the Niners and Pats and Broncos and Ravens and other, too. Vaccaro broke down several of those games below.
<offer>[h=3]Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Line moves: Lions opened at minus-6, currently at minus-6.5/7
Vaccaro says: "Let's say the Cards scored more than zero and the Lions got beat a little more. Even with Arizona having a bad QB, with the Lions traveling against a dead team the number figured to be four. But we know we will add a point or point and a half at least, plus the early money was going to show, so it went up. What's the breaking point? If the game goes to 7.5, as bad as the cards are, would you take it? Yeah we will get bites."
[h=3]San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots[/h]Line moves: Opened Patriots minuts-4.5, currently minus-5.5
Vaccaro says: "This was not a hard number to make. Before the blowout happened on Monday night it would have been three. That is actually what people had posted in the pre-weekend lines. After the blowout some wiseguys jumped on the three knowing it would go sky high. It still might go higher. All people want to bet are the Patriots and the over."
[h=3]Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills[/h]Line moves: Opened Seahawks minus-5.5, currently Seahawks minus-5.5/6
Vaccaro says: "This was a minimum of four. But after the Bills gave up the game in the last play last week, and just reading about them and how much the players and fans hate that this game was taken from Buffalo and put in Toronto changes things, in favor of Seattle. There might be more Seattle fans in the building than Buffalo. The Bills season is just about done. This will be a decent sized game because it's a late game."
[h=3]Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Line moves: Opened Broncos minus-2.5, currently Broncos minus-3
Vaccaro says: "You can see what Manning has done for this team. We write more tickets on the Broncos than any team right now. He has swayed everyone. The recreational guy loves him and they are coming in more on him each week. They are going to the east coast against a Ravens team that is fighting for it. But you know the bulk of the parlays will be on Manning. In fact, parlay money is 3-1 on Denver already."
[h=3]Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans[/h]Line moves: Texans opened minus-8, currently minus-9
Vaccaro says: "You jack it up a little bit because Houston got it stuck to them on Monday night. The smart guy would have played Indy seven or higher if Houston had beaten New England. Now it's a different angle and the Texans are pissed and have to fight off the new kid."
[h=3]The Millman Rankings[/h]Here are this week's Millman Rankings, with help from Evan Abrams (@betropolitan). We've added the players who would replace the starters to further understand the difference in value between first string and backup.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]The Millman Rankings[/h]
| Rank | Player | PSVAR | Replacement(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 10 | Graham Harrell |
| 2 | Eli Manning | 9 | David Carr |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 9 | Chase Daniel |
| 4 | Tom Brady | 8.5 | Ryan Mallett |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | 8.5 | Brock Osweiler |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 8.5 | Luke McCown |
| 7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 7.5 | Byron Leftwich/Charlie Batch |
| 8 | Philip Rivers | 7 | Charlie Whitehurst |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 7 | Tyrod Taylor |
| 10 | Cam Newton | 6 | Derek Anderson |
| 11 | Josh Freeman | 6 | Dan Orlovsky |
| 12 | Andrew Luck | 6 | Drew Stanton |
| 13 | Jay Cutler | 5 | Jason Campbell |
| 14 | Robert Griffin III | 5 | Kirk Cousins |
| 15 | Matt Schaub | 5 | T.J. Yates |
| 16 | Andy Dalton | 5 | Bruce Gradkowski |
| 17 | Tony Romo | 4 | Kyle Orton |
| 18 | Sam Bradford | 3.5 | Kellen Clemens |
| 19 | Calvin Johnson | 3.5 | Mike Thomas |
| 20 | Matthew Stafford * | 3.5 | Shaun Hill |
| 21 | Ray Rice | 3.5 | Bernard Pierce |
| 22 | LeSean McCoy # | 3 | Bryce Brown |
| 23 | Michael Vick | 3 | Nick Foles |
| 24 | Darrelle Revis: IR | 2.5 | Antonio Cromartie |
| 25 | Julius Peppers | 2.5 | Shea McClellin |
| 26 | Jared Allen | 2.5 | Everson Griffen |
| 27 | Haloti Ngata | 2.5 | Ma'ake Kemoeatu |
| 28 | Joe Haden | 2.5 | Dimitri Patterson |
| 29 | Todd McClure | 2.5 | Joe Hawley |
| 30 | Joe Thomas | 2.5 | Oniel Cousins |
| 31 | Adrian Peterson | 2.5 | Toby Gerhart |
| 32 | Nick Mangold | 2.5 | Caleb Schlauderaff |
| 33 | Jake Long: IR | 2.5 | Will Yeatman |
| 34 | Clay Matthews | 2.5 | Dezman Moses/Erik Walden |
| 35 | Mike Iupati | 2 | Joe Looney |
| 36 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | Andre Roberts/Early Doucet |
| 37 | Duane Brown | 2 | Andrew Gardner |
| 38 | A.J. Green | 2 | Brandon Tate |
| 39 | Marshal Yanda | 2 | Jah Reid |
| 40 | DeMarcus Ware | 2 | Anthony Spencer |
| 41 | James Laurinaitis | 2 | Josh Hull |
| 42 | Chris Long | 2 | William Hayes |
| 43 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | Rashad Jennings/Jalen Parmele |
| 44 | Carl Nicks: IR | 2 | Jeremy Zuttah |
| 45 | Mike Pouncey | 2 | Josh Samuda |
| 46 | B.J. Raji | 2 | Jerel Worthy |
| 47 | Chris Snee | 2 | Brandon Mosley/Jim Cordle |
| 48 | Cortland Finnegan | 2 | Janoris Jenkins/Bradley Fletcher |
| 49 | Jahri Evans | 2 | Eric Olsen |
| 50 | Russell Okung | 1.5 | Frank Omiyale |
| 51 | Troy Polamalu | 1.5 | Will Allen |
| 52 | J.J. Watt | 1.5 | Jared Crick |
| 53 | Rey Maualuga | 1.5 | Vincent Rey |
| 54 | Arian Foster | 1.5 | Ben Tate/Justin Forsett |
| 55 | Louis Delmas | 1.5 | Amari Spievey |
| 56 | Andre Johnson | 1.5 | Kevin Walter/Lestar Jean |
| 57 | Joe Staley | 1.5 | Leonard Davis |
| 58 | Vince Wilfork | 1.5 | Brandon Deaderick |
| 59 | Reggie Wayne | 1.5 | T.Y. Hilton |
| 60 | Darren McFadden | 1.5 | Mike Goodson/Taiwan Jones |
| 61 | Marshawn Lynch | 1.5 | Robert Turbin |
| 62 | Nate Solder | 1.5 | Marcus Cannon |
| 63 | Ryan Clady | 1.5 | Chris Clark |
| 64 | Chris Myers | 1.5 | Cody White/Antoine Caldwell |
| 65 | Jason Witten | 1.5 | John Phillips |
| 66 | James Harrison | 1.5 | Jason Worilds |
| 67 | Aldon Smith | 1.5 | Clark Haggans |
| 68 | Tony Gonzalez | 1.5 | Michael Palmer |
| 69 | Dan Koppen | 1.5 | C.J. Davis |
| 70 | Jay Ratliff | 1 | Josh Brent |
| 71 | Jordan Gross | 1 | Bruce Campbell |
| 72 | Maurkice Pouncey | 1 | Doug Legursky |
| 73 | Michael Roos | 1 | Mike Otto |
| 74 | Lance Briggs | 1 | Nick Roach/Geno Hayes |
| 75 | Dominic Raiola | 1 | Dylan Gandy |
| 76 | Colin Kaepernick | 1 | Alex Smith |
| 77 | Jeff Backus | 1 | Riley Reiff |
| 78 | Robert Mathis | 1 | Jerry Hughes |
| 79 | Ryan Kalil: IR | 1 | Geoff Hangartner |
| 80 | Von Miller | 1 | Wesley Woodyard |
| 81 | Roberto Garza | 1 | Edwin Williams |
| 82 | Calais Campbell | 1 | David Carter |
| 83 | Charles Tillman | 1 | Tim Jennings/D.J. Moore |
| 84 | D'Qwell Jackson | 1 | Craig Robertson |
| 85 | Ike Taylor | 1 | Cortez Allen/Curtis Brown |
| 86 | Quentin Jammer | 1 | Antoine Cason |
| 87 | Christian Ponder | 1 | Joe Webb |
| 88 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | 1 | Jason Smith |
| 89 | Patrick Peterson | 1 | William Gay |
| 90 | Johnathan Joseph | 1 | Kareem Jackson |
| 91 | London Fletcher | 1 | Perry Riley/Lorenzo Alexander |
| 92 | Percy Harvin: IR | 1 | Jerome Simpson/Michael Jenkins/Jarius Wright |
| 93 | Geno Atkins | 1 | Pat Sims |
| 94 | Tamba Hali | 1 | Andy Studebaker |
| 95 | Jamaal Charles | 1 | Peyton Hillis |
| 96 | Aqib Talib | 1 | Kyle Arrington |
| 97 | Daryl Smith: IR | 1 | Russell Allen |
| 98 | Sebastian Janikowski | 1 | Shane Lechler |
| 99 | Antoine Winfield | 1 | Josh Robinson |
| 100 | Rolando McClain | 1 | Omar Gaither |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
Red: On list 11/16/12, moved down
Green: New to list for 11/23/12
Purple: Injured but on active roster
IR: On injured reserve
Yellow: On list 11/16/12, moved up, injured, active roster
Blue: New to list for 11/23/12, injured, active roster
*= 0.5 point increase
**= 1 point increase
#= 0.5 point decrease</offer>
